Why I'll win: I'm the man! Auch bin ich der schweizer König, wusstest du nicht? I speak this awesome German no one outside my country understands. I have plenty of experience in the yellow jersey even if I'm not a machine. My motivation comes from the fun I'll have snickering at the Tour-appointed interpreter who botches all my words at the presser after each stage (see especially 2:10-2:35 for hot laughs). I've had a nice relax all spring long while these other fools (whom I pity) rode too many miles. I've been training with Frinkster or Frinster or whatever his name is in Holland for the last week and he says I'm awesome. I'll be wearing this rad red Swiss national champion jersey and will tell all the Spaniards that the leader's jersey is red this year just like the new Vuelta - causing them to panic and over-exert themselves while I go flying by (hasta luego!). I go really really fast and I have a big butty like Raúl Alcalá - all muscle. That's right people, I'm one big muscle. One big Tour winning muscle, ready to flex.
I heard the mountain stages weren't too bad on this Tour. Hmmm, reminds me of another Tour I just won. Perhaps you all missed that one? I can't wait to send my lieutenant Schleck (sehr schlecht) up those mountains and watch puny Evans and Contador try to follow. Then I make my move and POWER STRAIGHT UP LIKE IT'S A TT BABY! ok ok so maybe Armstrong or Menchov take a few seconds out of me on the Ventoux. That's ok because I take 20 minutes out of them on the TTs! Do the math people!
Why I'll lose: Get serious. Did I mention I'm the man?