Why not me? Christian Vande Velde

So, we've all heard the talking up and then subsequent loosening of expectations on Christian. Last season, he exceeded expectations by a huge amount in his 5th place (which could've been even more if not for an ill-timed downhill crash which slowed him and lost him huge time), became the new Great American Hope, and subsequently got injured this season. So, why do I think he could win this time around?

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Starts off with a Stage 1 ITT, which should be much easier for him and a mountain stage after a long time off the road. He'll put in a surprisingly good performance, and follow it up with a Garmin can of whoopass in Stage 4, with Millar, DZ, or Wiggo taking the maillot jaune (and subsequently letting a break run up the road in Stage 5 to lose the pressure). He'll be in better shape come the climbing stages 7-9, and won't lose too much time there.

After that, he'll be on his A-game, able to climb with Contador in the 3rd week on all the hard climbs, and kick his ass in Stage 19, taking the maillot jaune for himself, never losing it on Ventoux.

Why he won't win:

He got injured, and there's no way in hell he's up to form. He might be able to survive the time trials, but the mountains are going to be far too much for his body just after an injury. He may not even be the 3rd best climber on his own team - Dan Martin will certainly be better, and there's a bevy of other middling climbers who could be taking stages and holding their own in the GC. He might be good for a stage near the end, but he's nowhere near the form you need to even have a top 10 GC position with this field.

Prognosis:

I think he's going to be a stage hunter, especially in the TTs and in the late mountain stages when low-GC climbers can get a huge gap. I'm hoping he can go for Ventoux on a long break, personally. Ultimately, expect maybe a top-20 GC position, but ultimately, he's not the one leading his team. I'd bet it's Wiggo or Dan Martin. There's a lot of talent there, the question is: will it go for GC, or for stages? Garmin's a serious stage-hunting team this year, and it may show in their tactics. I expect a Garmin to be going for a break almost every day in the transition after the first mountain stages and in the late mountain stages, when breaks can and will be let go. He might be a contender for the polka dot, but that's the best. Unless he had a miraculous recovery, I don't expect much of anything from him GC-wise.