Contador The Favourite…Only Just

I am having a hard time believing that any one can beat Bert in the Tour, but this is the best explanation I have seen about why someone can beat him.

over 2 years ago profgubler 15 comments 0 recs |

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Can't really compare Bert in 07 to now

totally different rider, can’t really compare the his form at the 08 Giro to his form he will surely have at this year’s Tour. Last year’s Vuelta Sastre finished 4 minutes behind him in 3rd, so only Levi was close. He hasn’t won by huge margins yet but he has 3 more GT’s at 26 then Lance did at 26. I think this year’s Tour doesn’t set up the chance for huge time gaps but I predict Bert will win by 4 minutes in a GT very soon, he’s only getting better.

by Phil H. on Jun 30, 2009 11:26 PM EDT reply actions

I like your points...

Again, I don’t doubt Bert, but this is the only article I have seen to really make me take a second look at Bert. I do wonder if he is as strong as we think. Is he really that good. I think he has a chance to win more GT’s than any other rider in history. It is just encouraging to read a decent article that makes you think that some else has a chance.

Because after all the love for Bert on PC, which is justified, it is nice to remember that this could still be a race. After, how fun is a blowout unless your favorite man is the one blowing out the competition.

by profgubler on Jun 30, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah Keenan did well on CTV last year doing the Vuelta

he’s a credible source and I understand the point he’s making, just pointing out there are some important details he’s leaving out.

by Phil H. on Jul 1, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Agree, no comparison.

The only thing I agree with is that Lance could possibly defy logic.

by sminer on Jun 30, 2009 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions

The weakness I see in Contador is his inexperience.

By that, I only mean that he can sometimes over reach with his enormous talent and desire and blow a gasket. But he had a bonk this year that taught him a lesson that I don’t think he’ll repeat. But that was a hunger bonk, I could also see him over reaching by reacting too hard to a move from the competition. I think he has a slight lack of control patience. But I think he is finding his internal Yoda.

by sminer on Jun 30, 2009 11:57 PM EDT reply actions

Yep he still has some stuff to learn

I think the P-N experience was probably good for him. I’m not too worried about the Astana drama affecting him because when the rumors first spread Lance was going to Astana he was riding the Vuelta, and clearly his performance wasn’t effected there. I think this year’s Tour is one were impatience may not be an issue, on the mountain top finishe stages there is only one place to attack, and that’s late in the stage. Then the other stages except for stage 17 have summits too far from the finish for any decisive GC attack to happen forcing him to make a decision to go with or not to and neutralizing any attack he may want to launch.

by Phil H. on Jul 1, 2009 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions

totally agree.

I don’t think he’ll make exactly the same mistake twice, and I don’t think he’ll be as open to mistakes in general. But, that said…the hunger bonk of a one day effort is different than the slow wastage of a many day effort, which is different from dehydration. Sure, he’s felt all of that, but all of those things have, in the past, flattened far more experienced riders whose self-motivation got in the way of their self-monitoring. He absolutely can win, but that’s not to say he will, absolutely, win. If he misses it, I expect there will be a lot more that he does win in the next 5 years.

by JFS_PGH on Jul 1, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions

The Bonk in Paris-Nice

Should not overshadow the way in which he got rid of all other contenders during the climb on Little Ventoux.

"Where there’s a will, there’s a way.": Alberto Contador, shortly after waking up from brain surgery.

by Lopex on Jul 1, 2009 4:12 AM EDT reply actions

+1

he was left alone almost the whole week in PN.
the bonk is not just a result of stage 7 IMO.

by rbjhan on Jul 1, 2009 4:14 AM EDT up reply actions

But then imagine being alone for 3 weeks

Some of the other “captains” on the team(Andreas, Lance and Levi) need to be put in place early on, so he can have them as domestiques.
Unless the actual 5 domestiques on the team have been hiding this season on purpose.

When that is said, it’s good to see that Contador has been intelligent enough to insist that the team should have domestiques for the flat stages. :D

by OctaBech on Jul 2, 2009 3:29 AM EDT up reply actions

don't lump klodi in with la and levi... klodi will happily do domestique duties

"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind

by umwolverine on Jul 2, 2009 3:35 AM EDT up reply actions

sometimes

I think he’s even happier being a domestique….god knows why…

by rbjhan on Jul 2, 2009 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Klodi

He’s not riding for a fellow countryman this time!!! That could change everything. I wish Astana wasn’t so stacked, I wish these guys were competing against each other. Although they have all had their chance to ride for themselves, only Lance took advantage-Levi couldn’t keep the reins for a full tour even, and yet he’s good enough, that in the right situation he could win.

by wasatchfront on Jul 4, 2009 4:29 AM EDT up reply actions