Why not me? Kim Kirchen

Surely Columbia -HTC cannot have a more important goal this Tour than to elevate this proven GC-rider to the top spot of the podium?  What else would they spend three weeks in France doing that would make other teams Green with envy?

Still Kirchen should not be overlooked, and here's why.

Kirchen is one of those sneaky riders who didn't explode onto the stage like some of the more highprofile stars. His is the story of slow progression. From promising youngster working hard for others and scoring some notable results on Fassa Bortolo via an off year on a T-Mob in disarray to finally blooming on Stapletons High Road. Blessed and cursed with all-round ability he hasn't  dominated one single type of races but rather produced admirably all over the calender (to the joy of VDSers everywhere).

Why he will win?

The last two years have seen him develop into a real tour threat . Solid performances all-round, spiced with a marked improvement in the TTs. Had it not been for busted dopers he would have been the big story in the long TTs these last two Tours. That combined with a strong team in the TTT should keep him in contention. An accident in the Tour of Cali might have been a blessing in disguise as far as the Tour goes. Not having spent a lot of energy might enable him to make a sastrian third week assault this year. The relatively unaggressive mountaintop-finishes should benefit the second-tier climbers like Kirchen. Previously he has had too see juuuust a little too much time slip away from him on the decisive climbs, not so this year.

Why he will not win?

(Insert Alberto Contador disclaimer here)

Cav:Much like Cervélo, Columbia is a two-target team. To make things worse for Kirchen, Cav is going for a green jersey which means he won't just be sucking resources away in the first week but all the way to Paris. Martin and Monfort will in all likely-hood not be fully dedicated to Kirchen but used to set things up for Cav. God knows what Rogers will be doing? Are they considering him co-GC-captain with Kim or is he a supportrider?

Mentality: It has been indicated that KK is a brooding, selfdoubting rider and prone to overthinking. Would he cope with being in a position to win in the last days?

The Ventoux: Kirchen can probably handle everything else this Tour throws at him but the Bald Giant might be one hill too far for him.  Past climbing performances indicate this.

The Grand Duke Predicts: This is your year Kim but you sure do smell like a fifth-place candidate to me.