Team Astana: Dividing the Spoils

by PopUp Rolen on Jul 13, 2009 11:27 AM EDT

Based on all of the rumors, rancor and speculation, Team Astana will implode at the end of this season. At the very least, it will look significantly different. I can’t imagine Alberto or Lance sticking around, and I can see each of these guys taking their favorite domestiques with them to their new teams. What will be left of Team Astana I imagine is Vino and his Kazakh friends. Thus guaranteeing no invites to grand tours or other important races.

So, looking at the current roster, it’s never to early to start speculating on where the various pieces will fall for the 2010 TdF. For the point of this speculative exercise, I’m assuming Armstrong starts a new team and Alberto either goes to CdE or starts a new team, as is rumored today. Also, this is all directed towards the 2010 TdF, and not building a squad for the complete season.

Team Armstrong (new team)

Lance Armstrong
Levi Leiphemier
Jani Brajkovic
Chris Horner
Popo

Analysis: That is a monster team built with two impressive leaders (levi and lance) that appear to get along well. I also think Levi is one of the few guys Lance would actually ride for.

Team Contador (new team)

Alberto Contador
Jesus Hernandez
Daniel Navarro
Benjamin Noval
Sergio Paulinho

Analysis: Not bad, but not that impressive. Obviously , Bert would seek to fill out the roster with some more heavyweights, but still, I imagine it will be a team of little experience.

Caisse d’Eparne (with Contador)

Alberto Contador
LL Sanchez
David Arroyo
Oscar Pereiro
Rigoberto Uran
Rui Costa
Alejandro Valverde

Analysis: Obviously, there is one major question marks on that roster, whether or not valv.piti can ride the Tour next year. Even if he can’t though, you have a solid co-leader with LL Sanchez and experience with Oscar. Plus, Uran and Costa will be a year older with more experience. All in all, a really solid team.

Final Analysis: Contador would be crazy to stick with Astana (unless forced to for the remainder of his contract) or start a new team. If his goal is to rack up TdF victories for the rest of his career, I think his best shot is to go to CdE.

Still, next year’s TdF sets up to be much more exciting with Lance and Contador on opposing teams. Throw in a strong and more experienced A. Schleck on Saxo Bank, as well as a more experienced Cervelo Test Team behind Carlos, and we potentially have four teams with recent experience winning the big show.

The best thing for the 2010 TdF is if Astana implodes, thus eliminating a clearly dominant team and leaving behind four or five really good teams.

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Comments

does Vino's return = Astana imploding?

I think the CdE scenario isn’t so great as long as Valverde is around. With LuLu coming on, Contador would be encroaching there too. As baseless as the “new Spanish team” scenario is, I do think it would be neatest for most parties involved.

Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!

by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 13, 2009 3:54 PM EDT reply actions

Do you think Astana has the cash, patience to stay in the game without any races?

I can’t see them getting any GT invites at all. Tour and Giro would be an almost certain no. Vuelta…maybe. And I don’t think they have much interest or the riders for a spring campaign. So what are they paying for? I think they would be in worse shape than Fuji. Hell, they could barely keep things together with the Lance hoopla and Bert’s huge success, quite possibly two of the biggest, most popular riders ($$) in the peloton.

If they hold Bert to his contract and bring back Vino, Bert is out of the Tour again due to the team he is on. That would be tragic. I just don’t see how the team survives unless it pretty much starts from scratch again with Vino as the leader and resigns itself to sitting in the penalty box for a year.

by PopUp Rolen on Jul 13, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

If they have money problems with these guys winning stage races all year, they may not have the staying power if the big guns move to other teams.

by dheadrick on Jul 13, 2009 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Vino's return = Everyone leaving Astana

I don’t see this team staying together even without Vino but his insistence on returning really makes it less likely anything will stick. I don’t think there is any question LA will form a team with Levi and Horner next year and it will be something along the lines of Live Strong. The only question is have is whether they will be able to fill a roster with enough guys to get invites to all the races. I do see Bruyneel tagging along with this team though.

I could see Contador going to Caisse. The concerns about Valverde are probably unfounded because he is not a grand tour guy. Then he focuses on Ardennes and week long stage races and goes to the Grand tours but essentially is the backup to Contador. I don’t think Lulu will be a GT rider either, but who knows.

by ncmussell on Jul 13, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Basically Spot on Bevin

but I don’t know that JB is a tag along.

"…I saw bloody Cavendish coming, really fast…"
HH

by ELVISGOAT on Jul 13, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh Contador

why don’t you just come to your senses and go to a nice anti-doping team like Skil…

by Vlaanderen90 on Jul 13, 2009 4:28 PM EDT reply actions

or Garmen

"…I saw bloody Cavendish coming, really fast…"
HH

by ELVISGOAT on Jul 13, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions

please, no no no...

i can’t abide garmin

"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind

by umwolverine on Jul 14, 2009 4:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Who gets custody

of Elvio the soigneur?

by Katiek on Jul 13, 2009 9:06 PM EDT reply actions

CdE

I think money will be a problem, depends on the AV thingy.

if he is still around, can they afford both AV and Bert? plus all the good domestiques….
I dunno…can anyone?

by rbjhan on Jul 13, 2009 10:58 PM EDT reply actions

dream solution:

CdE gets Contador, but passes Valverde to the new Vino Astana, and they turn the team into what Rock Racing tried to be—a rehab unit for ex-dopers and suspected dopers whom no-one will touch, trying to break back into the big time. They race pro-conti for a year, and collect a couple of other big names who are clawing their way back (including a certain snake boy, who will lead out in the mountains, and perhaps a sprinter or two).

by JFS_PGH on Jul 15, 2009 11:18 PM EDT reply actions