Based on all of the rumors, rancor and speculation, Team Astana will implode at the end of this season. At the very least, it will look significantly different. I can’t imagine Alberto or Lance sticking around, and I can see each of these guys taking their favorite domestiques with them to their new teams. What will be left of Team Astana I imagine is Vino and his Kazakh friends. Thus guaranteeing no invites to grand tours or other important races.

So, looking at the current roster, it’s never to early to start speculating on where the various pieces will fall for the 2010 TdF. For the point of this speculative exercise, I’m assuming Armstrong starts a new team and Alberto either goes to CdE or starts a new team, as is rumored today. Also, this is all directed towards the 2010 TdF, and not building a squad for the complete season.

Team Armstrong (new team)

• Lance Armstrong
• Levi Leiphemier
• Jani Brajkovic
• Chris Horner
• Popo

Analysis: That is a monster team built with two impressive leaders (levi and lance) that appear to get along well. I also think Levi is one of the few guys Lance would actually ride for.

Team Contador (new team)

• Alberto Contador
• Jesus Hernandez
• Daniel Navarro
• Benjamin Noval
• Sergio Paulinho

Analysis: Not bad, but not that impressive. Obviously , Bert would seek to fill out the roster with some more heavyweights, but still, I imagine it will be a team of little experience.

Caisse d’Eparne (with Contador)

• Alberto Contador
• LL Sanchez
• David Arroyo
• Oscar Pereiro
• Rigoberto Uran
• Rui Costa
• Alejandro Valverde

Analysis: Obviously, there is one major question marks on that roster, whether or not valv.piti can ride the Tour next year. Even if he can’t though, you have a solid co-leader with LL Sanchez and experience with Oscar. Plus, Uran and Costa will be a year older with more experience. All in all, a really solid team.

Final Analysis: Contador would be crazy to stick with Astana (unless forced to for the remainder of his contract) or start a new team. If his goal is to rack up TdF victories for the rest of his career, I think his best shot is to go to CdE.

Still, next year’s TdF sets up to be much more exciting with Lance and Contador on opposing teams. Throw in a strong and more experienced A. Schleck on Saxo Bank, as well as a more experienced Cervelo Test Team behind Carlos, and we potentially have four teams with recent experience winning the big show.

The best thing for the 2010 TdF is if Astana implodes, thus eliminating a clearly dominant team and leaving behind four or five really good teams.