PdC Stats: Why Isn't Thor Getting Killed in the Points Race?
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 14, 2009 5:33 PM EDT
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PrintSome time ago Ursula, Majope (I think?) and I started tinkering with statistics as a way to tell more of the story, much as is possible to do with other sports like baseball or whatnot. While we have not made much headway with all riders, in my opinion we have identified a decent set of sprinters' stats that do tell what a guy is up to. First, is he making the cut in the sprint stages? Once he gets to the head of the race, does he win? Place consistently? etc.
Given the riveting two-man battle for Green at the Tour, I thought I would run some stats for Cavendish vs. Hushovd. These numbers are taken from grand tours raced between 2007 and this morning. I specifically focused on grand tours, for the purpose of evaluating their chances at the Tour, rather than their overall sprinting abilities. Hushovd generally peaks for the Tour above and beyond anything else, so it's only fair. Check it out:
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Mark Cavendish |
Thor Hushovd |
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Sprint Stages |
22 |
28 |
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Made Finale |
21 |
25 |
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Finale % |
95% |
89% |
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Wins |
12 |
3 |
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Win % |
54% |
10% |
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5.04 |
20 |
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Top 10 |
18 |
20 |
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Top 10% |
82% |
71% |
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Top 5 |
16 |
12 |
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Top 5 % |
72% |
43% |
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|
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Right now the numbers say that Hushovd should be getting creamed by Cavendish for green, but that's not the case. A few points:
- Hushovd is outperforming his typical Tour de France from the last few years, placing no worse than 8th in any stage, with an average placing of 3.4. Over the last few years, his raw placement average is 20... but this is skewed by a couple outliers, including at least one relegation. Subtract those and his average placing is more like 10th. However you slice it, the God of Thunder is having a very good Tour, even by his standards.
- The simplest reasons why Cavendish trails Thor are his one day out of points (16th, though with the bunch), and Hushovd's intermediate points (not sure how many, but it's not a ton). For Cav, it's all or nothing -- and almost always all, but that one slip-up did hurt. Cavendish too is having an excellent Tour, but that one poor result demonstrates the immense premium placed on getting in position every day.
- One other reason Cavendish is losing, and this has gotten no play: the lack of bodies in the finale. Over the years Hushovd has only made the top five of Tour sprints 43% of the time, barely more than half the number as Cavendish, yet this year both riders are 4 of 5 in that regard. Why? After all, this is the most star-studded sprint field in years, maybe decades: Boonen, Freire, Bennati, Farrar, Van Avermaet, etc. Using the CQRanking.com head-to-head feature, Boonen beats Hushovd 23-16 in sprints; Freire beats him 21-15; Bennati... loses 16-11. In any event, these guys are more often than not putting themselves between Hushovd and the winner, which explains why Hushovd over the years has frequently found himself out of the top five or even top ten. Yet this year Bennati is absent, Freire is in and out of competition, and Boonen is openly moaning about how he can't win, which usually means he doesn't bother with the sprint. This is hurting Cavendish: his advantage is Thor's weakness, the big argy-bargy, but Thor isn't being hurt by dropping five spots; when not winning he's getting second or fourth. Meanwhile, Thor's advantage and Cav's weakness is the odd intermediate sprint or difficult finish, and Thor has made the most of those.
One note, Bennati did take 9th today, so it's possible he will be heard from as the race goes on. I don't know what Freire's plans are, but one would hope he will try to assert himself eventually. It's possible we will see days where Cavendish wins and Hushovd fails to minimize his losses with a minor placing. For Cavendish, however, this is out of his hands, and is making for some nervous days.
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Thor claimed 12 points from the intermediate sprint.
Earlier in the season we were talking about the Cav-Boonen matchup. Now it’s the Cav-Thor show; I’m not sure anyone would have predicted that but I sure am enjoying it.
Which presumably is why they exist--
without them, you reward the fastest sprinter with the best team (who can drag him along so that he’s somewhere in the bunch, and make sure that the break is caught). With them, you reward the guy who’s consistently doing his share of pulls and breakways, and can STILL contest the sprint at the end.
NB, I’m not saying that Cav fits the first description perfectly (though Columbia does). But Thor fits picture #2 to a T.
At the risk of forming opionions
without all the information, I think Thor is benefitting from doing the work that other guys don’t want to do. Boonen clearly has no interest in trying to place if he can’t win, and it seems quite a few other guys are pretty much throwing in the towel. Meanwhile Thor is working his ass off to take the points he can get. He seems to be really happy on Cervelo and has no problem representing his sponsor and his team to the best of his ability. Not all the sprinters can look in the mirror today and say that.
"I get paid to hurt other people. How good is that? How good is that?
I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, that's good." Jens!
Bennati
has an excuse. The others… nothing comes to mind.
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 14, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
its a similar situation to that of the GC this year…one guy/team is more than likely to win, and only one or two riders/teams have the fight to challenge…
boonen, freire, bennati, hell all the other sprinters would make cav and columbias job far harder than it has been so far simply by contesting sprints- getting in the way, disrupting the rhythm of the columbia train, jostling cav for position- the way petacchi and lpr did in the giro this year. alright, so cav will win most of the sprints anyway, but the other guys will still stand a better chance of winning green, and picking up the odd stage.
i really admire thor (even more than i did before this tour) for taking the fight to cav, and not just because it creates a showdown between two of my favourite riders. it shows the competitive spirit, and the tactical intelligence, that make cycling so great to watch. as for everyone else…whatever. rant over.
One theory
if Cav’s campaign relies on more sprinters being in the mix, then maybe he’s his own worst enemy: he’s demoralized them all from really trying.
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 14, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
could be
this kind of relates to another fanpost, but i think cav is like lance in that he thrives off the competition, and sometimes friction, with other cyclists. and i definitely think he has demoralised a lot of them during the last few months…but i also think that thor has shown he can be bested, at least tactically, so hopefully the others will take heart from that.
as for cav, he’ll become his own worst enemy when he loses that raw speed (and he will, eventually, like all sprinters do), and all he’s left with is his need to win, all the time. he’s mentioned the classics as a long-term goal before, and hopefully those will replace the masses of sprint wins, kind of like they did for boonen. sure he might not win the green, or many bunch sprints, but he’s mr paris-roubaix. i know which i’d prefer…
mais, Cav demonstrably has a top end
300w more than anyone else.
He also has ridden pursuit and track: I would look for him to turn into a Zabel or JaJa type threat.
yeah, its true
that would work for sure. but i mentioned the classics cause i remember an interview where he said he wanted to win paris-roubaix…god knows where, i’ll try and find it.
nice one :)
i think that may be the one i read. it’s a subject for a whole other fanpost of course, but i wonder if he ever could do well in races like roubiax. stranger things have happened, but i guess we’ll find out someday. for now, he should stick to being the fastest when its flat and easy, as thor described it.
yeah I think this is a good point – as opposed to a bunch of other sprinters sharing all of Cavendish’s crumbs, you have one guy collecting the juiciest ones. Mmm, crumbs
by plinytheelder on Jul 15, 2009 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Toss the stats
Thor seems to thrive on the challenge of toppling Cav’s quest for the Green. He’s with a new team, new mates and director and most certainly a new motivation. Thor is intelligent and extremely competitive. He knows he can’t beat Cav in a straight up sprint, but he’s there to show Cav that there are many other ways to beat him and keep him out of the green jersey. Thor welcomes the challenge, Boonen hides in the wings.
Thor/Boonen
Indeed. Why? Seriously Tommeke… you’re hard enough to win three P-Rs and yet you can’t get up for a green jersey campaign because there’s another guy who’s faster? Is this how he’s going to regard the Tour of Flanders as long as Devolder is around?
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 14, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Well I think the prediction was right when he was compared to Museeuw (sans doping)
They both started as sprinters and now since he has matured a bit he is growing into the classics-man mold…
by Vlaanderen90 on Jul 14, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions
nah
Boonen’s form is blown because of the problems in his personal life before the Tour. He didn’t know he was riding. Thor did, and has had the Green Jersey as his objective from the start of the season. He’s won it once, and knows how to play the game – he knows he doesn’t have to beat Cavendish on the line. He can win it on the intermediate sprints and shit-ton of placings. Which is exactly what he’s doing.
Boonen’s just not there and I doubt Cavendish is really the reason for that. I’d agree with the Vlaanderen, also, that Boonen is shifting away from being a bunch sprinter, and that’s been predicted for some time. With age, he’s losing the speed he had when he was younger.
Where were you
when we were devising VDS points? :)
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 14, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
If his form is blown like you say, which I believe it is,
then why the hell fight to get in and deny a guy who would have fought his ass off and probably been in the fight for the green as well? He and Quick Step have confused me to no end.
Publicity, unfortunately
Just having his smiling mug there counts for more in publicity terms than having Allan Davis there placing in the sprints. More name recognition for the sponsor from Boonen, basically. Unfortunate, but true.
It would be nice if he did something other than sit in the field, of course, no doubt about that. Not sure what there is for him, though, as no one is going to let him go in a break – and no break rider is going to cooperate with him.
he did fall down
does that count?
"I get paid to hurt other people. How good is that? How good is that?
I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, that's good." Jens!
Lots of sympathy for Davis, here
Yes, Boonen’s a much better sprinter than Davis, but christ, if you’re not even going to try . . .
Was that a cleverly disguised poke at my Ed's League Team? Was it? Was it?
I think it was and think it is unconscionable to imply that I’m not even trying.
The problem with that
is that he is NOT getting the publicity.
With the Black Helmet in the group the only way that a rider like Boonen is going to get publicity is by winning or by failing a dope test.
He does not look like executing the first one any time soon.
Meanwhile, Davis would have been more likely to be “allowed” in a break, and, based on recent results would probably be doing a better job than Boonen in the sprints too…
"Age and treachery will overcome youth and skill" - Fausto Coppi
You write about him, that's publicity
But the big deal publicity in all media is still going on in Belgium & Holland, that’s where it’s at for Quickstep.
yep
He’s there, he gets his photo taken before stages, his name gets mentioned – and this year often for not doing anything – he gets interviewed. So, yes, he gets attention just for showing up and being Boonen – and his fans will tune in to see if he does something.
I think this is the absolutely correct answer...
…and a bit of the elephant in the room. Nobody wants to say this about Boonen. It’s stunning how little commentators have mentioned him, in any context, during this tour; but this is clearly it.
+1
I think this is absolutely right, and Haussler is to the best of his ability supporting him unconditionally. They were a bit disorganized and did a lot of every man for himself this spring. But this is the Thor show and HH is showing a lot of class letting it be so.
Now that Thor has green I can't oppose to him being lead sprinter
but he’s not getting close to beating Cav, I’ve said it before, I doubt GHH could but at least give it a crack no? Not now obviously but maybe on the Champs if Thor is out of the race or has clinched green.
Vamos Alberto!!!(Contador not Ricco)
I'm sure if there's an appropriate moment to let him go for himself....
…he’ll get the green light. But this thing could be awful tight, so I wouldn’t get your hopes up for GHH this time.
My hopes have been shifted towards Tony Martin at this very moment
Vamos Alberto!!!(Contador not Ricco)
Given Thor is using Columbia's train
more than any Cervelo riders, I’d love to see GHH take a flyer from 500-600m out and see what he can do. I think tomorrow is perfect for this.
I’m interested in seeing how Cervelo and Columbia start dealing with intermediate points as well.
"I get paid to hurt other people. How good is that? How good is that?
I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, that's good." Jens!
This is also true.
It’s not like Haussler is doing nothing, any more than Julian Dean is for Farrar, but man, both teams are spent so early by comparison to Columbia that yeah, leadout seems to have devolved to protecting them long enough for them to lock onto the end of the Columbia train and try to get around Cav.
I would love to see what happened if Columbia made a real honest to God effort to contest the GC one of these days. Sprints might get more interesting.
Seeing that they made the white jersey do some work late in the stage...
this aint gonna be the year they focus on GC.
Vamos Alberto!!!(Contador not Ricco)
disappointing
anyway you look at it but I am still hoping that he can put a little show before Paris…
Boonen and Rojas
Rojas- My first thought is that what you are saying about Thor also applies to Rojas (Thor lite?) who has all of a sudden become stunningly consistent since stage three. Here are all his stage finishes from one on:
86, 18, 31, 7, 7, 3, 125, 5, 6, 5
The 125 is the Arcalis stage. Rojas is claiming the role of the climby sprinter. It will be quite interesting to see how he does on stage 13 to Colmar with it’s climbs.
Hmm. I wonder about Rojas. Could Valverde’s absence be helping him take a next step up in his development? Afterall I don’t think JJ is any faster in a sprint than Alejandro. (It would also be interesting to see JJ on a team that knows how to deal with his type of talent.)
Boonen- the remark you made up above Chris,
Is this how he’s going to regard the Tour of Flanders as long as Devolder is around?
The answer is “Yes”.
That’s what I was trying to say around Flanders week. To me he’s basically given up on winning Flanders. Yeah, he’s shadowed by the likes of Pozzato and 101 other hopefuls but his attitude at Flanders to me says “decoy only”: he no longer cares to shake his shadows unless he can basically wear them out like at P-R and Flanders isn’t selective enough for the effort he puts in (unlike this year both of his teammates Devo and Chavanel). I would go so far to say that if Pippo had managed to stay with Boonen all the way to the velodrome and beaten him then we would never ever see Boonen win a Monument again.
Unless he changes his ’tude.
You can call it a
“mark of respect” for Devolder, or a bribe, or a fix. No, I figure Boonen has no intention of taking Flanders away from the teammate who “owns” it. I’m not a Boonen fan (yeah, I know that comes as a major shock, and don’t throw rocks my way, it’s just a style thing). But I actually think that consistently being there as the counter-threat that allows Devo to take it is very classy. And of course, when everyone assumes they have to dog-pile Devolder, leaving him with truly no chance, then sure, Boonen will take it. I don’t even need the unicorns, crystal ball or tarot deck to see that clear as day.
but don't forget
he won flanders two years in a row, alright neither win was as spectacular as devolders solo efforts have been, but still, a win in flanders is a win in flanders. i think he much prefers p-r (for whatever reason), and is less motivated for flanders cause he’s won it twice, and doesn’t have the same affinity with it as roubaix. ok, that doesn’t put his attitude in a very good light, but i don’t necessarily subscribe to the view that he’s given up on flanders because he can’t win it again…maybe it’s personal choice.
i’ve read that back and i might be rephrasing what you wrote, rather than making a new point. but i’ll post it anyway :)
His Flanders win when he attacked the favourites,
instead of waiting out a sprint he was almost sure to win, was every bit as spectacular as Devolders in my opinion.
Sample Size
While this is very interesting, I’d be very nervous about concluding much based on such a small sample size. The win rate numbers do jump out, though. The next step is average points per sprint stage, etc etc.
Um...
…I thought he was using all available data on all the contenders for the past few years. How is that even a sample? Seems like a comprehensive analysis to me.
I believe it's presented as an attempt to come up with useful stats for sprinters
and these two sprinters are being used to check the usefulness of the stats. To assess the usefulness of the stats, you may need more riders.
(And the better question then might be, “useful for what?”—for green in the tour, or for bragging rights?)
tension
riders like thor change from year to year, and also put their eggs in few baskets. so as you broaden the data, you pull in races where he wasn’t peaking, or when he was going differently. I dunno quite how to resolve it; usually tryto get at least 20 races so you can start to spot a trend.
Cav, of course, has only two years’ worth of useful data.
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 15, 2009 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Ok Thor vs Ca breakdown questions
Cav wins flat sprints, Thor wins climby sprints.
How many of each are left? Is Columbia going to have to send Hincapie and co ahead to contest intermediate sprints? Will this impact breakaways? That is, is Thor going to try for as many intermediates as he can get? How many are left? Will it come down to Paris?
I count
4 flat sprint stages including the last one. Stages 11, 12, 14, and 21
2 transitional stages, 13 and 19. These stages Thor and JJ may be able to get points that Cav can’t.
1 other small mountain stage, 15 to Verbier that Thor and JJ should at least contest the intermediate sprints and possibly might be able to contest the finale. Possibly.
That leaves i ITT stage 18, and the mountain stages 16, 17, and 20. Note that the Ventoux stage (20) has its intermediate sprints accessible to Cav and the other sprinters.
I know we've been playing down Verbrier
but it’s still 9km at 8%, no way Thor and JJ get anything at the finish. Stage 19 will be a break, that’s almost a guarantee. Stage 13, I can see Freire and JJ potentially getting to the line, but that depends on how aggressively the climbs are raced, and again it’s a stage made for the break. Thor needs to get himself in one, maybe 2 breaks in the mountains. Stage 15 and 17 don’t have much climbing before the finish and he can get himself intermediate points there. It’s up to Cav to follow the attack.
Vamos Alberto!!!(Contador not Ricco)
Four likely sprints left
Tomorrow has a threat of a break, but should be a sprint. Thursday will be a sprint for those that hang on over the Cat3 climb, 40k out, Saturday should be a sprint, then the last day in Paris.
I would expect Cav to win in Paris, and probably Stage 14 on Saturday. Tomorrow and Thursday, I think, will be key days
"I get paid to hurt other people. How good is that? How good is that?
I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, that's good." Jens!
Another way to look at it: Why Isn't Cav Getting Killed in the Points Race--Again?
2008 Tour de France: Cav takes his third win, and is 5th in the points classification, 41 points behind Oscar Freire.
2009 Tour de France: Cav takes his third win, and is 2nd in the points classification, 6 points behind Thor Hushovd.
Thor is doing a great job of following classic strategy to win the green: making sure he’s up there in the sprint finishes, going for intermediate points, not missing the all-important Columbia move that lost every other sprinter a lot of ground in the race for green. He’s raced for every place: one 1st, two 2nds, a 4th, a 10th, plus those 12 intermediate points.
But Cav is right up there behind him. Last year, when he got his third win, his only other points were from Stage 3, where a breakaway won and the group was sprinting for 5th place. Cavendish came in 10th overall—5th in the bunch sprint, behind McEwen, Zabel, Freire, Hushovd, and Forster. Since he handily beat these guys in other head-to-head sprints in the same Tour, it’s probably not much of a stretch to say he wasn’t trying too hard.
This year in a similar situation when a break took the top spots, Cav unleashed his sprint for 3rd place and swept up 26 points. He also struggled to take 16th place (10 points) on the uphill sprint Hushovd won in Barcelona. Chris calls this his one poor result—I disagree. Nabbing 10 points there in a finish that he wouldn’t have contested in the past comes within 2 points of canceling out Thor’s 12 intermediate points from the break the other day.
Thor’s a solid sprinter and he’s smart. Cav is wicked fast and he’s racing smarter than last year—or at least with more focus on the green.
Cav has said he won’t sprint for intermediate points, and it remains to be seen what effect that’s going to have. But as long as he keeps contesting the sprints he would have sat out in the past, he’s going to be up there.
Among his many talents, Mark Cavendish can make it rain in Southern California--Chris Jones, ESPN Magazine
Numbers.
Good points majope. I basically agree, Cav is riding much smarter and harder this year. With Zabel in his corner he’s going to be hard to beat. I think Chris’ point is also valid, in that Rojas, Freire, Benna and maybe even Tom are going to assert themselves at some point. This will work to Cav’s advantage.
"…I saw bloody Cavendish coming, really fast…"
HH
hm
this is awfully sensible. Almost too sensible…
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 15, 2009 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions
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