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Green Jersey Power Poll!

Le-tour-sm_mediumWith the Tour de France slumbering this evening in the shadow of the Vosges Mountains, the battle for the Maillot Vert has arguably concluded its second phase (depending on whether you count Saturday as week 2 or week 3), making this a good time for a check-in. Even in the English-speaking world it's well known that we have a two-horse race, but aside from that basic fact it's been an interesting and evolving battle. Here's a little rundown of the favorites as they stand now, with an eye on Paris and an assist from you-know-who:

1. (pre-race: 1) Mark Cavendish, Columbia-HTC ↔ ↑ ↓

Old Bleatings: "Growing pains seem to be behind him. Capable of getting in a groove for a three week race and staying there, for a while at least. No particular set of conditions bothers him.... He has never finished a Tour de France, and only has one complete Giro in his legs. So until we have data, you can't rule out the possibility of him getting tired and missing a finale or two at the end."

New Thinking: Today was a big day for Cavendish. As recently as last Saturday, he was ceding intermediate sprints to Hushovd, and seemed to be on his heels as Big Thor cannily rode himself into Green. Moreover, Columbia's vision seems to involve padding their win totals, which is not exactly what a points competition is all about.

Tourbecco_cropped_mediumToday, however, Cav showed the consistency needed to win early points on the road -- not counting on Hincapie to cover his ass -- and still take the finish-line points, or what's left of them. Also his team is excellent: I loved watching Tony Martin yesterday gently elbowing a Milram guy off the train in the final run-in. No gifts!

Tourbecco's Take: "Today I am ceding my column space to five time Tour winner Bernard Hinault. Right now the Badger is in a cafe, where he's been since 7am this morning, answering our questions about each rider. Take it away Bernard!"

Badger's Bites: "Cavendish is not a true champion because he does not attack! He cannot win the green jersey by following wheels. He must attack on every stage, including the high mountains!"

Um... ho-kaaay... On the jump, the rest!

Star-divide

2. (2) Thor Hushovd, Cervelo Test Team ↔

Old Bleatings: "Thor always seems to be there, which is the name of the game. No lower than fourth in the last five years....Also no great climber, though he can handle the shorter ones. He lacks the top-end speed to finish off a sprint against Cavendish and hasn't outkicked Freire very often either in the last couple years."

New Thinking: Thor has two remaining advantages over Cavendish: the ability to hang on for dear life over certain climbs, where Cavendish cannot; and the ability to make it to Paris, in which regard Cavendish is a complete unknown. The battle so far can be summarized thusly:

MC: Suck on my back wheel, Thor!

TH: Behold my consistency, punk!Badger_medium

MC: Oh, so that's how you want to play it? No problem.

TH: See you in the mountains... not!

Anyway, Hushovd has shown a steady nerve and the ability to stick to the plan. This he shouldn't change... it's his only hope. Some downsides: his team isn't nearly as strong, and Farrar and Bennati are both moving up.

Badger's Bites: "If you really want to win, you fight to your last breath. My ideal champion is one who wins the race on the Champs-Elysees with a strong attack, and then immediately dies."

3. (5) Tyler Farrar, Garmin-Slipstream ↑

Old Bleatings: "Fast, fast, fast...While inexperience is a big negative in these competitions, Farrar has the benefit of a relatively easy course on which to learn."

Badger_mediumNew Thinking: You must admit he's getting better. Getting better all the time.

Er... OK, he sat out today's stage finish, which is either a sign that he's given up on the points comp (as have most guys outside the top two) or just youthful inattentiveness. So if it's about stage wins... admittedly that's not the purpose of this column. But Farrar does seem to be getting closer and closer to a win. More than that, he's getting between Thor and Cav, which pleases the latter no doubt. Consistency has been a problem, but when he's there, he's been second, fourth, third and second. On the 40th anniversary of the Apollo 11 launching, another American rocket is taking off.

Badger Bites: "These kids rely too much on earpieces, which are just game boys with a gigolo attached to them in their ears telling them when to take a piss. Also, he does not attack. In my time we would have brought him to tears with our attacking."

4. (6) Gerald Ciolek, Milram ↑

Old Bleatings: "Last year he worked for Cavendish in the High Road system, and did great stuff. The material is all there. But given his age it's probably not fair to expect him to shove guys like Hushovd and Freire aside."

Badger_mediumNew Thinking: Am thinking he will come on a bit at the end. There was something very intriguing about seeing the Milram train take over the front of the race in the finale yesterday. OK, they couldn't hold it long enough, and the usual result ensued. But this is another young kid, on a new (and newly-reconstituted) team, learning the ropes as a green jersey contender for the first time. So far he's leading Oscar Freire, and he is still working out the kinks. It may not be paying the bills yet, but this is how you build a career.

Badger Bites: "These guys are like civil servants, nobody puts a knife to their throat and tells them they won't get paid unless they win. Including you. I would put a knife to your throat if it would make you do this interview faster."

5. (3) Oscar Freire, Rabobank ↓

Old Bleatings: "I put Hushovd ahead of him for one reason: last year the course gave Freire had a huge advantage and Hushovd finished second. In years when the course favored Hushovd, Freire was nowhere around. In other words, last year was good, but until we see what happens next month it may also have been a fluke."

Badger_mediumNew Thinking: Fluke! Actually, Oscar has had a bit of a rough go. IIRC he was held up in the first sprint on Stage 2 when a few riders (including Tom Boonen) sailed off the course or got stalled behind that knot of traffic. Then he missed the crosswinds split on stage 3... and the gig was up. Since then he's amassed 97 points, enough to put him in a threatening position had he gotten through the early bits unscathed. In which case stages like tomorrows would still be, as I'd called it earlier, a "Freire stage." Then he'd really be in the thick of it. Now he's 100 points off, hunting for a stage.

Badger's Bites: "I have chunks of guys like Oscar in my stool. Come, I will show you now."

Lurking around: JJ Rojas Gil, Daniele Bennati, Leonardo Duque. JJ Rojas is in stage-hunting mode as well, and doesn't rate quite as fast as Oscar or Farrar, though I could be argued into swapping him and Ciolek. Bennati is a non-factor for Green from his P.O.V., but he's getting closer to contesting sprints, at least making the finale now. I still say he could be heard from in the last couple flat stages.

Gone, forgotten: Tom Boonen, Greg Van Avermaet, Heinrich Haussler. The latter has other ambitions. The other two... ew. I'll take Gavia's take, which is that Boonen's time in purgatory really robbed him of his form. Even if he'd found out a week earlier I can't see that helping much. And anyway, he seems more and more like a rider in transition -- away from his part-time sprinter gig that isn't working very well anymore, and more into full-time classics stud, which is.

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same thing

different angle

Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!

by Chris... on Jul 16, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like the idea of having the Badger as mascot. :D

Today’s bite reminds me of how I was taken by surprise when it was said that Mark’s max watt is 1600, the rest is pure position and bike handling.

Amazing, but sadly this only makes him more of an antagonist in my eyes. Not alone is Mark too perfect, he is also @#$% clean. ):

by OctaBech on Jul 16, 2009 5:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh god...

… for a second I thought you were talking about Sui Juris! I pictured him imploding at 1599 watts…

Respect the Shit List; it respects you.

by crashdan on Jul 16, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've seen Sui Juris

throw down 1600 watts. In a rental car.

Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!

by Chris... on Jul 16, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ahhhh yes...

“On your ass like a spider in a P-51”

Respect the Shit List; it respects you.

by crashdan on Jul 16, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

1600 watts

is this a magic number? I seem to recall Boonen being a 1600-max watt guy circa 2006?

Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!

by Chris... on Jul 16, 2009 6:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Would seem so

though there’s still some way up to Mario Chippolini’s 2K+.

I wonder how much Thor punches into the pedals and if his size is against him?

by OctaBech on Jul 16, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it's not going to solve global warming but

1600 Watts! wow

sometimes life is a false flat

by Willj on Jul 16, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

1.6kW sounds like a lot ...

… but how many kiloWatt hours? 1600W for how long?

by BruceMcF on Jul 16, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A few seconds, at most.

That’s big time wattage, but it’s definitely a peak number. I’d be curious to hear how Cipo’s was measured. I don’t even know if most power meters are rated that high. But then again, he did get a ticket for riding on a freeway once…

by Noah on Jul 16, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

1600W is sufficient to power ...

… one theater spot light
… 54 average Compact Flourescent Lightbulbs
… a high end server (although you’d need both Thor AND Cav as redundant power supplies)
… 53,000 iPods

Respect the Shit List; it respects you.

by crashdan on Jul 16, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well yeah that is the magic number for around a 5-6 hour stage or classic...but in shorter races the numbers are waaay higher...

Cavendish’s power isn’t really super high though, it is just because he can spin super-fast in the sprints b/c of the track background and he is staying aero all the way through it… I have heard numbers for him in a sprint are only between 1,000 and 1200.

Boonen, Cipo, and Petacchi are much bigger guys than Cav thus they have to put out bigger numbers… Just for perspective, Chris Hoy, when going into a sprint can produce around 2500 watts though he could rip cranks off a bike with his physique. I also know Taylor Phinney can get up to 2000 watts in a sprint though this is probably just training

by Vlaanderen90 on Jul 17, 2009 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another number

Big Maggie was reputed to do about 2200 watts peak power.

by Softie on Jul 17, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rojas

To me has been the most impressive of the bunch. Mostly this has to do with my own expectations, but he’s been in every sprint and has shown he can make it through the climbs. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t end up in third.

"I get paid to hurt other people. How good is that? How good is that?
I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, that's good." Jens!

by jsallee00 on Jul 16, 2009 6:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+ 100 million

for the Badger Bites…. absolutely priceless stuff.

by IowaAC on Jul 16, 2009 6:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thx!!

10 bonus VDS points…

Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!

by Chris... on Jul 16, 2009 11:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

On avait besoin d'une petite pause

Nous avons changé de tactique de course, en décidant de lutter plus seulement pour le gain de l’étape, mais pour les points du maillot vert.

http://www.leparisien.fr/sports/cyclisme/cavendish-on-avait-besoin-d-une-petite-pause-16-07-2009-582438.php

by lucybears on Jul 17, 2009 4:03 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

lol, fun reading

the addition of hinault, so awesome. but really, i think we need a tourbecco-hinault shoot-out.

by gavia on Jul 17, 2009 5:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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