Tour Stage 15 Preview: Pontarlier - Verbier
by crashdan on Jul 18, 2009 2:05 PM EDT
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Stage 15 :: Sunday July 19, 2009
207.5km :: Pontarlier - Verbier
Finally, a stage that is un-flat. Four Cat.3 climbs (such as they are) the Cat.2 Col des Mosses and a summit finish in Verbier. The Alps are upon us and now we'll see the GC contenders shake the rust off and start to climb for well and true. Quite a few of our Cafe members are going out to the Alps, so keep your eyes on the pavement for the occasional \o/ chalked out.
So, tell me... You sick of the flat stages and slow rolling breakaways? Ready to see the sprinters fall through the back of the peloton and form the grupetto? Want to see a bunch of guys who have been non-descript for the majority of this race since Monaco suddenly come into their own? Are you ready to see your favorite GC rider either grow wings and annhilate their competitors with a cadence you can only dream of or leave it all out on the course and crack utterly, the front wheel going side to side as they struggle, mightily, to maintain even the barest breath of momentum?
I thought so :)
It's late on Saturday morning, Gavia, help me out here so I can finally get around to cleaning up my climbing gear...
The Tour visits Switzerland during this stage for the second mountain-top finish of this year’s race. Setting out from Pontarlier, the course travels east passing by Lac de Neuchâtel and climbs six categorized climbs. The finishing climb to the ski resort town at Verbier, which has a category 1 rating, makes it’s début at the Tour de France this year. This stage suits the climbers and offers one of their main chances to chase yellow. Time gaps should open up by the finish, though the main contenders will likely remain close on time in Verbier.
Situated approximately 20 kilometers from the Swiss border, Pontarlier was recently designated one of the 25 most beautiful cities in France. Since I’ve never been there, I’ll have to take their word for it. During the nineteenth century, Pontarlier became known as the capital of Absinthe, the favorite drink of artists like Charles Baudelaire, Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec, Vincent van Gogh, and Oscar Wilde. Absinthe was hugely popular in France until its ban in 1915. Many of the old distilleries still stand. Not into the "Green Fairy"? Pontarlier was also home to pioneers of aviation in the early years of the twentieth century.
Courtesy of Gavia's Stage 15 Preview at Steephill.tv
We start in France, but that doesn't last long as it's straight into Switzerland. Within the first 25% of this stage, the riders will go over all four of the Cat.3 climbs...
- Côte du Rafour at 3.7 km averaging a gradient of 5.1 %
- Col des Étroits at 1.5 km averaging a gradient of 5 %
- Côte de La Carrière at 6.3 km averaging a gradient of 4.4 %
- Côte de Prévonloup at 4.5 km averaging a gradient of 4.7 %
Quite a bit of higher end rolling terrain to ride over, but one can hope it will provide a nice warm up for everyone.
Just after the Cheesing Station in Gruyères, it's time for a real climb, the Cat.2 Col des Mosses. It is 13.8km long while averaging a 4% gradient over that length. It's nice to finally start seeing double digit distances for the rated climbs instead of those little 2.7km long 2.3% Cat.4 speed bumps from earlier this week.
The finale of the stage is the summit finish at the Verbier ski village. The climb is 8.8km long averaging 7.5%. The intermediate sprint at Martigny lies at 501m, with this summit finish being at 1468m, an increase of 967m.
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Gives you a sense that something interesting might finally happen ...
Respect the Shit List; it respects you.
Watch for the Astana train...
Unfortunately, on a single climb with a long valley before, I can see Astana doing its best US Postal train impersonation. Armstrong is feeling better and better I think, and tomorrow he will test the rest of the GC contenders. Paulinho and Popovych in the valley, Zubeldia and Kloden at the bottom of the climb and then all hell breaks loose :) We’ll see what Contador does then… I’m afraid this won’t be a battle for the stage since it’s likely there will be another breakaway far in front of the GC bunch…
Your scenario has me worried
I think Astana (Lance) basically wants no race and they will try the "light blue train" tactic. I’m hoping that by the 3rd or 4th switchback things start to break loose.
You’ve got a fairly long ramp up through the first two turns, which could favor team tactics. "They" say the climb is fairly short and not so steep. What I remember as a kid who used to live near there (a long, long time ago) is that it was tough just to get the car up the road.
I’m sure the road surface and the turns have been improved since then. They also used to have an F-1 type hill climb up there. I wonder if they still do.
Please, please, let’s have some excitement!!
Another question I have is
who is the freshest? That may be more important than who’s is the best climber or who has the most to gain or lose on this particular stage.
What I can tell from the only sports channel I can watch (VS) is that Lance Armstrong is the only person in the race (at least so I am reminded every 90 seconds). And based on the screen shots I am allowed to watch, he almost always seems to be up there with the 1st 20 or so riders in the peloton if not actually "leading."
Big strategic mistake over the last two weeks in my book. Assuming there are other contenders actually riding in this race, riding further toward the back of the pack could result in a additional 10% – 20% net labor savings over being a sheltered rider at the front of the pack. That alone could prove decisive.
(And freshness is a HUGE factor in this race…speaking from experience…just having finished a 4 ½ ride.)
So if Lance (or anyone) suddenly "gets stronger" over the last two weeks and runs a climbing tutorial tomorrow, you know what I am going to assume. Menchov already seemed to be falling off the back of the pack at Colmar…
Regardless, does anyone else have a different, less filtered, alternate view/insight on the freshness factor?
*sigh*
If you think riding near the front is a strategic mistake you have not ridden in enough races! Leipheimer is basically a prime example of a rider that does infact get stronger as the long races go ( though I should say they don’t ACTUALLY get stronger, they just get weaker slower than their competition ). Armstrong has always peaked his training cycles with the last week of the tour perfectly, Contador and Evans both seem to be able to do this damn well also.
They all know who the guys capable of attacking and holding are.. Contador, Amstrong, Schleck, Evans, Kloden, Wiggins and Sastre.. that’s pretty much it. Anyone else… not very dangerous.
The gap between the two climbs is too large for any of the main guys to attack before it. If we’re REALLY lucky Kloden will attack on the 2nd category and cause the race to splinter allowing for a very small “royal” break to push alone to the 1st category. Then we’ll have attacks very early on the climb.
by whistlingmountain on Jul 18, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Sigh If you think riding near the front is a strategic mistake you have not ridden in enough races!
This could be substituted with something like:
“Actually there are many reasons why it’s smart to be riding near the front”
sometimes life is a false flat
I hope something happens...
maybe somewhere during "red zone" in awesome chart below?
From the above list, with the exception of Kloden and Armstrong, could some of the other guys be fresher? I wish I had a better view of the race than from my stinkin’ TV set.
I agree, there are lots of good reasons to ride at the front. However, one good reason to ride in the middle of the pack in a long stage race (assuming you don’t hit the pavement, miss a breakaway, etc.) is the relative workload.
Just wondering where all the other contenders have been all week. Are any of them fresher as a result?
With last year as the exception
There are generally never more than 5 people capable of winning the race. This year there were likely only 4 ( Contador, Armstrong, Andy Schleck and Evans ), with a couple more that would at least have eyes on them ( Sastre, Menchov ), Evans & Menchov were all but eliminated in the TTT because of the lack of attackable stages to pull back big time ( not that Contador will be losing big time to anyone at any point in this tour. ) All 4 of them have been riding up towards the front, something you basically have to do in a grand tour race with 180 riders.
Armstrong has visibly been poking his head out of the peloton more than the other 3, but he is often on the protected side of the echelon, so it’s a bit misleading. Also keep in mind that Astana has rarely pushed hard on the front, in the past week they have only gone to the front to keep the race from falling asleep and breaks from going 20 minutes out.
I think they’re all pretty fresh in relative terms. They’re the strongest four riders, they’ve had little test them thus far particularly in the last week, they have a rest day on Monday. I suspect they’ll all be strong tomorrow, so we won’t see major time gaps, but Contador will show he’s the strongest climber and Armstrong/Schleck will bring it on home behind him.
I didn’t include Wiggins. While he’s dropped weight, I think the only reason he’s still up this high is because there hasn’t been a real climb yet. The leaders will certainly “keep an eye on him,” but I will be shocked to see him to do anything but try to hang on then fall behind on the final climb.
by whistlingmountain on Jul 18, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Good analysis
Though I wouldn’t discount a more aggressive Evans than we have come to know.
He’s not going to become a Chiappucci overnight, but he has demonstrated this year a confidence in attacking that he hasn’t shown previously, and heaven knows he needs to attack!
"Age and treachery will overcome youth and skill" - Fausto Coppi
I suppose you're right
If I wasn’t such a jerk. =oP
by whistlingmountain on Jul 18, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I do understand your point here
and riding towards the back of the pack can help a little bit, but in my opinion (and some experience) is that it is not nearly a 10-20% net labor difference… honestly, maybe only 1-2% if you are still mostly riding protected near the front.
SO MANY bad things can be potentially avoided by riding closer to the front. There is a reason why most want to be in the front half of the peleton, and there is constant movement forward and back in the back half of the peleton… risk of getting caught in someone elses crash is dramatically increased towards the back. Also, just look at stage 3 this year where Armstrong was near the front and was able to make te break group when the wind changed.
Also, and this is only speculation based on Armstrong’s past history and conditioning habits/tactics, but I almost guarantee that LA is riding right where he feels he needs to in order to continue his conditioning revival. We all know he rode the Giro for conditioning, and he got stronger towards the end. But I don’t believe he (or his trainers) felt he was even near where he needed to be at the beginning of the tour. In contrast, Contador himself said he was in his best possible conditioning AT THE START. LA is riding to get used to the pace of the peleton again (a huge factor), and to physically get himself at least closer to his old self. Age is his enemy, but he is actually riding at 5 lbs lighter than he was at his peak performance (say 2001 or so).
I guess I could have said that LA is likely riding EXACTLY where he feels he needs to, for various reasons. Very few others in the race (maybe none) know what it takes more than LA… mentally and physically.
Call it a hunch, but I have a strong feeling right now that LA is going to surprise many with his ability over the last week. I’m not sure what you meant by your “you know what I’m going to assume” statement, but if it even hinted at improprieties, that woud be quite an irrespoonsible statement to make right now, especially considering the plethora of tests all of the riders are going through. IF, and it is a longshot if for most, LA is able to get stronger in the last week, I’m very confident it will be because of his freakish physiology and the above factors I’ve mentioned.
In any case, it should be a fun last week!
Lots of numbers out there,
all roughly say the same thing:
Energy expenditure during bicycling.
McCole SD, Claney K, Conte JC, Anderson R, Hagberg JM.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2318782?dopt=Abstract&holding=f1000,f1000m,isrctn
• The benefit of drafting a single rider single rider at 37 and 40 km/h was (27 +/- 8%)
• Drafting one, two, or four riders in a line at 40 km/h resulted in the same reduction in oxygen consumption [expressed as VO2] (27 +/- 7%).
• Riding at 40 km/h at the back of a group of eight riders reduced VO2 by significantly more (39 +/- 6%)
• Drafting a vehicle [roughly equivalent to the middle-back of a large peloton] at 40 km/h resulted in the greatest decrease in VO2 (62 +/- 6%).
Energy savings also depends on your position:
• Best results were achieved with near perfect alignment in a velodrome and in the wind tunnel (Burke, High Tech Cycling, p 161).
• Kyle (1979) reported drag reductions of 0 +/- 30% for laterally displaced riders as opposed to a 44% reduction for riders directly behind a lead cyclist.
Only the road will tell!
by RoadRash911 on Jul 19, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions
The only time I’ve seen LA unsheltered was in Arcalis and the last 200m of the Platzerwassel where he sprinted alongside Nibali/Pelizotti to show to everyone that he was feeling good (or maybe it was a bluff, but since nobody bothered to attack, we’ll never know !). Yes he always rides in front and that has allowed to not crash and to not be caught in echelons… I doubt you can estimate freshness just like this…
About 10 switchbacks
And the climb is over. Hope something happens in the meantime. I know freshness is hard to estimate, but assuming my TV coverage is not too, too biased, the riders in the middle of that pack that we never seem to see or hear about could sprout wings. I know, too good to be true…
THe elevation profile for Verbier (final climb)
Starting in Martigny, the 12 or so kms before the above profile begins are also uphill gaining about 200 metres (so less than 2% average).
The climb itself is on a big, wide, open road, hair-pinning up to the resort. Not the easiest climb, but less steep than the final two climbs in stage 17. Lots of high mountains in all directions – should be partly sunny with nice views.
I mentioned in the race comments earlier – there was an interesting article in a Geneva newspaper about the 19 years that Verbier has been lobbying for a Tour stage – as they attempt to increase their summer tourist traffic.
Sorry, it’s in French:
http://letemps.ch/Page/Uuid/14241f2a-7312-11de-a8f0-7a9ab8d4bd30/La_longue_marche_de_Verbier_vers_le_Tour_de_France
sometimes life is a false flat
yeah, that sorta has conta written all over it, that red part does
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
really? 8.5 isn't that bad.
I’d think Contador would prefer something with a few more 15% sections to attack on.
by whistlingmountain on Jul 18, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Conta and Sastre...please team up and dominate
by Vlaanderen90 on Jul 18, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh man that would be fun...
…tag team drag one another up the mountain and away from the rest.
I'm thinking it's the dynamic duo
Andy Schleck + Alberto Contador. AS attacks. AC counters. The future great rivalry of the Tour…
Schleck is only 48 seconds behind Contador (for goodness sakes!) and he needs the time before the ITT. I don’t think anyone else can hang with them (including Armstrong).
The road will tell.
We have to reshuffle the deck somehow!
contador 6 secs off gc, achlecket 1.49.... how do you get 48 secs from that?
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
Looks like I bungled the math
Don’t ask me how. Should be more like 1:43 off Contador’s time. Good catch!
Looks a lot better than Arcalis
plus 14 stages in the legs now, lets hope there is more action up the climb than Arcalis.
Vamos Alberto!!!(Contador not Ricco)
I think it will all get started
when Cadel attacks. Could be early in the stage (here you go Hinault), or could be on the final ascent (which would play right into the hands of AC and AS). Unfortunately, I don’t think Cadel can actually ride away with an attack unless the group lets him (see Dauphine). It is encouraging from a fan standpoint to see Cadel attack, especially after so many of us “internet forum people” have bashed him for following wheels, but as a humble amteur cyclist, I know each rider has limitations. After Cadel goes and does not pull away (or comes back), then I like the Andy and Albert show someone posted above. If nothing happens tomorrow, I can skip watching the Tour until the TT and Ventoux (and of course the sprint down the Champs Elysee!).
If freshness not a factor, then maybe age is…
Here’s a thought provoking analysis that might suggest Lance Armstrong is about to run out of gas… maybe not so much at Verbier, but by the time we reach Ventoux…
Mt Washington Climbing Time vs. Rider Age
http://www.northeastcycling.com/Hillclimb_Analysis2.html
Using the 2002-2004 age and finishing times of the Mt. Washington hill climb as a data base, the statistical analysis presented here suggests that, on average, we get slower by 45 seconds (1.5%) per year with each successive climb after our mid to late 20’s. As the author notes, "One of the top finishers on Mt Washington recently quipped to me something like ‘another year, another minute slower.’ "
[See chart, about halfway down the page]
This relationship also holds true when you consider the best of the best the fast-as-can-be-at-any-age…
[See second chart, whose results include those of the current record holder, Tom Danielson, wish I knew how to post graphics…]
Say what you like about statistics… and yes, Mt. Washington is a for real, longer and steeper climb…
But does this relationship hold true with you and the people you ride with? Don’t men tend to reach their prime athletic ability in their mid to late 20’s? After that, does the curve stay flat? At what point does nature and gravity start to win?
So this week, we get to see Contador (age 27, 3x grand tour winner, weight: 62 kg), A. Schleck (now just 23, weight: 67 kg), two no nonsense climbers vs. you know who at age 37… weight 72 kg (pick your source, who I swear gained and lost 15 kg of mostly pure muscle without using drugs…)
PREDICTION: On average, all things being equal, discounting wheel sucking, team dynamics, and assuming no PEDs, we can expect LA to easily be 1.5% to 4.5% slower than he was 3 years ago or much, much slower than he was during his prime.
Two Things
1. Armstrong is a freak of nature and always has been, combine that with 3 years off and he probably won’t have gotten the same percentage worse as your average joe-rider.
2. He was faster than anyone in his prime, by a lot. Either by PEDs, his general freak of natureness or a combination of the two. So even slowed he’s still pretty fast. ( I don’t think he has the ability to attack the same anymore, but I bet he has the ability to stay )
That being said, I don’t think anyone thinks he’s as good as Contador. As good as Schleck though? Maybe.
I will say this, I will be EXTREMELY disappointed if it turns out that Armstrong is clearly the second best rider this year and he never tries to attack or tries to stay with Contador under the veil of teamwork. It is the tour and if the two best riders are on the same team, I want to see team get torn apart as the climbs come to fruition.. may the best rider win. Hinault and Lemond! Everyone will be cheated if Armstrong is the only viable threat to Contador and we never see a showdown. >=o(
by whistlingmountain on Jul 18, 2009 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Other Side note
I believe recent studies have shown that men reach their peak endurance in their early to mid 30’s
by whistlingmountain on Jul 18, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Personally
I hope that flat spot in the performance curve extends out to age 55. Hey, why not 85. Please!
by RoadRash911 on Jul 19, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions
that is an awesome article though
neat to see Greylock in there, I grew up near it and rode it many times as I got older.
by whistlingmountain on Jul 18, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks :-)
Come on out to Colorado and try Mt Evans. America’s highest paved road and a nice place to ride if you have an aversion to oxygen!
Tom Danielson also holds the record there. Sheesh.
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