Tour Stage 4 Preview: Montpellier TTT !!!
by crashdan on Jul 6, 2009 12:22 PM EDT
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Stage 4 :: Tuesday July 7, 2009
39km :: Montpellier
Oh man, we've been begging for it, and had it delivered to us in races as diverse as the Amgen Tour of California and the Giro d'Italia (remember Christian's Maglia Rosa last year?). However, it's been four long languid years, almost to the day, since we've seen a Team Time Trial at the Tour de France.
It was July 5th, 2005 and the stage was from Tours to Blois over a somewhat lumpy (towards the end) 67.5km course. Zabriskie was in Yellow but Team Discovery won the day and Dave's crash caused him to arrive 1:26 down, giving the Yellow to Lance for what would eventually become his 7th GC victory. There was much rejoicing at the sight of train after train of teams hurtling along the French countryside.
For those of you that might be a little new to this sport, there are few things that will cheer the heart of even the most cynical, diehard, cycling fan. They are, in order...
- De Ronde van Vlaanderen
- Duvel and Frites
- A magnificently executed Team Time Trial
- A Jens! Voigt breakaway
- Pork Belly served with Kimchi and Peanuts
Tomorrow's course is flat and only half as long as the 2005 course, but who cares, IT'S A FREAKING TEAM TIME TRIAL!
Gavia, dahling, layeth down the preview smack...
The team time trial returns to the Tour de France this year for stage 4. The teams will ride 39 kilometers around Montpellier on a mostly flat course. Indeed, the course is flat enough that there are no mountain points on offer during the stage. Three time checks at 9, 19.5, and 30.7 kilometers will allow fans - and the team cars - a chance to track the teams’ progress.
The stage will be decided on real time. There will be no adjustments to the teams’ finishing times as has sometimes been the case in the past. The time on the line will determine the stage and general classification standings, and will be taken when the fifth rider finishes.
Montepellier lies just inland from the Mediterranean coast and continues the sea breeze theme of the first week of this year’s Tour de France. The stage begins in the city center at the Jardin des Plants and follows a u-shaped course into the outskirts of the city before returning to finish at the Croix de Argent. Created in 1593, the Jardin des Plants in the oldest botanical garden in France. We can expect good weather for the stage, because Montpellier has the typically warm Mediterranean climate. The Tour de France last visited Montpellier in 2007 for the start of stage 12, a sprint stage won by Tom Boonen.
Courtesy of Gavia's Stage 4 Preview at Steephill.tv
Now, this course is flat (as noted above) and close to the sea (as also noted above). There's very little of direct interest, course wise, unless you have a sharp interest in Montpellier. Here's a quick overview...
Unfortunately, the shortness and flatness of the stage just doesn't lend itself well to these terrain / topographical mapping feats that I perform using Google Earth; the mountain stages are obviously far more compelling.
There is, however, one interesting aspect to this course I noted when I was mapping it out. There are no less than 10 round-a-bouts en route. You know these things, they are the funny little paved circles that appear to dot the French countryside (and city side) like Master Planned crop circles. They cause absolute havoc in the peloton with half the riders taking one side and the others taking the opposite. It totally reshuffles everyone. Now, this doesn't necessarily matter to a Team Time Trial, except that you tend to barrel into this things at full tilt, and depending on the bend radius of the curve, it can "crack the whip" and might split off one or two riders off the back of the train, forcing them to catch back up. Not so bad once or twice, but do it ten times and who knows.
Here's a sampling of some of the road furniture...
Enjoy!
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How much trouble are you going to be in
for not putting the Tennessee Slaw Dog on your list?
Brooklyn Chewing Gum: Vlaanderens Mooiste
How the hell did you get West Vleteren!?!
That stuff was tough to come by when I was in Belgium. It was almost like chasing the Holy Grail.
I'm lucky in my team-mates.
Friend of team-mate goes to Belgium a couple of times a year and knows which bar-tender in West Flanders to ask if they have a couple of bottles laid by
Excellent score!
I was in Zingem for four days and we went to the same bar every night. We asked the first night, and the bartender said they were out, but when he saw that we came back the next night and were a friendly lot, we gained entry to the secret bar stash. Obviously, hit the same bar the next two nights.
Crikey, and here I am, full of guilt, sipping a Koenigsbier....
Bah....Cavendish?!
there exists something better than Duvel
is it in a beer of the month (week?) club?
sometimes life is a false flat
Soooo?
Lance, Popo, Haimar going left-side in the roundabouts AC, Klöden, Sergio, Rast, Murayev going right-side and Levi bouncing straight through?
Finish order predictions?
Columbia
Astana
Garmin
Saxo Bank
Only team bickering stops Astana from winning.
Finish Order Prediction
1. Garmin
2. Astana (20")
3. Columbua (27")
4. Saxo Bank (+1’00")
by Burgundy and Gold on Jul 6, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
i'll try
astana
garmin
columbia
thinking columbia will be a little less sharp as they essentially did a ttt today
"Race radios in Cat 4?"
I forgot to put into the post...
… does anyone have a handle on how the rules of the TTT are going to be handled? How many team members have to cross the finish? What’s the elimination time limit? Stuff like that?
Respect the Shit List; it respects you.
i thought i heard paul say (and need to confim)
that it’s actual time of the 5th guy without the limit as in the last run.
by cg. on Jul 6, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
So what happens if Contador has a mechanical or crashes late in the TTT?
Does Astana wait for him or push on? What if they have only 6 riders at the time?
I'm not sure....
they might just leave him w/ Zubeldia and Paulinho and a pat on the back.
The rest “go for the stage win”.
I think some riders could be shed early and could put some teams in trouble.
The early bumps in the profile could prove difficult. Remember the Sardinia TTT in the 2007 Giro. Those little hills were late in the course but they proved much more difficult than expected. Same thing happened in the Tour of Georgia on the auto racing circuit. Little hills can be real tough when you are that close to your limit.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Leeky and Milram
put in some good times. I’m not saying either will win, but they could surprise and place in the top 5.
Maybe having Leeenooos in the top 10 of GC will inspire Milram.
Would be nice to see them do well.
Among his many talents, Mark Cavendish can make it rain in Southern California--Chris Jones, ESPN Magazine
The Milkmen have a good team.
Gerdemman, Ciolek, Fothen, Frohlinger, Knees, Terpstra, Velits, Wegmann, Wrolich. Not a bad mix, and there a few big engines in there.
by The Team Chef on Jul 6, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Top 3 (could go any order)
Columbia
Astana
Garmin
I really think these will be the top 3 in some order. I have reason’s for each of them winning:
Columbia:
overwhelmingly they are the team that has the ability to work together best. In a TTT I think this factor might rule the day. They all have big motors and are willing to lay it on the line every stage. What doesn’t go in their favor is the huge effort they put in today.
Astana -
We saw they had the best team performance in the ITT on stage one. Contador, LA, LL, Kloden make for a very strong quartet. Only question is how well they can work together. And will their be a sprint at the line to see whether LA or Contador crosses first?
Garmin-
Again a team stacked with very good ITT’ers. Millar, Dave Z., Wiggo, CVV. We know they can work together well given their second at Giro and first at Giro last year. They also didn’t really put in a huge effort today. Only thing against them is they are always a wildcard with how they will actually do. You never know what team you are going to get.
I wouldn't count out Saxo
with O’Grady, Arvesen, Voigt, Larsson and Cancellara.
They do have Fränk (and to some extent Andy)
in the luggage compartment though, and need to haul that with them to the finish.
If they're not careful...
… their heartsh could make exploshies in der cheshts.
Respect the Shit List; it respects you.
Garmin was chasing franticly today in the final km's,
surely the efforts Columbia put in today will show tomorrow? TTT 30ish km’s two days in a row? Not possible.
Cance sounded and looked exhausted after today’s stage.
Astana spent Popo and Zub in the break today.
Liquigas will win.
My bets
1st place: Garmin
They’re a loaded team in terms of time trialists. The non-TT riders (Maaskant and Farrar) can hold their own on a flat. They’ll be a hard team to beat, especially when you consider that this is their event, and they have the best team of long-ITT riders. On a shorter course, I’d probably pick SexyBack or Columbia, but with Millar, DZ, Pate, CVV, and Wiggo, that’s a really, really hard team to take down.
2nd place: Columbia
Another pretty loaded TT team with Tony Martin their highest-ranked GC rider. They also have significantly low amounts of deadweight on their team, even if they used a lot yesterday. For their GC men, they need to have a huge day. I expect one out of them.
3rd place: Astana
Solid group of time trialist, but they burned a lot of the matches of their guys, and don’t have any real motors, just a bunch of GC-type guys who can time trial decently. The problem is, you need some big motor-type TTers who can block the wind, and without that, they’ll have some trouble. Very little deadweight, but ultimately, I don’t know how effective this team will be in keeping out of trouble and really blocking the wind with their team.
4th place: SexyBack
I love Fabian and some other parts of this team, but 2 factors to me stick out: Schleck and Schleck. They can’t time trial, and they’re deadweight. Honestly, I think SexyBack could lose to Cervelo in this TTT because they’ve got some deadweight for a TTT who can’t do a lot of pulls, but who need to stay with the team to not lose their GC ambitions.
What GC hopeful will lose the most time tomorrow?
Evans seems the most obvious.
I dont think Columbia will win it.
for a couple of reasons,
One being the considerable effort they put in today in that echelon, the other is the depth of the other teams in the discipline.
I predict
1. Garmin- they have the tt’ers and focus on it more than anyone else.
2. Astana- stacked with tt talent.
3. Saxobank or Columbia- I wouldnt discount Saxo, Andy rode well enough in the TT and not only do they have the best tt’er in the world, but also Gustav Erik Larson, olympic silver medalist
Expected time gaps
Here are the time gaps at 45.8km from 2005. Though there are a number of teams over 2’ back, the top-5, and definitely top-3, are really tight. I will be very surprised to see anyone but Tony in yellow tomorrow night.
"Never swing a small stick. " Andy Hampsten
I just put up a fanshot with tomorrow's start order if anyone's interested
can’t wait for this thing. Menchov better hope Rabo is good tomorrow because he could very well find himself 2:30 minutes behind Bert and Evans after tomorrow.
Vamos Alberto!!!
ok so
i was worried about the effort columbia put in today, and was sort of thinking that the way was paved for lance to take yellow, which would, without wishing to break the rules of discussion concerning him, ruin my week. but, the more i sit and think about tomorrow (rather than doing something constructive with my evening), the more i think tony martin, or perhaps tony montana, will be in the lead come tuesday night.
sure, columbia pulled hard today, and sure, it will have hurt some of them. but, all nine members (bar cav) were working today, and the hurt will therefore be spread thinner than it might have been. these guys are top, top, athletes, and i have faith in their capabilities to put in two consecutive days of power. ok, make that three with wednesdays flat stage in mind, but after that, the key leadout men (eisel, hincapie, renshaw) can concentrate on surviving through the mountains.
i’m convinced that astana are, bit by bit, being torn apart internally, and would love to be a fly on the wall in the various hotel rooms tonight. i don’t see them being cohesive enough to win this by the amount of time they need to put a rider in yellow. i just don’t see it. or perhaps i don’t want to, but you get my point.
sexy bank worked hard today, but fabian stated his intention was to hold the jersey until tomorrow, and i happen to think they wouldn’t mind too much if he lost it then, as long as the schlecks stay within 2-3 minutes of whoever happens to be in yellow. this course ain’t long enough for them to lose that kind of time, IMHO. plus they have some seriously skilled chronomen, as someone mentioned above.
garmin will be super pumped up for this stage, for reasons heavily discussed here at the cafe. they aren’t going to put wiggins in yellow (much as i would love to see that happen), but winning tomorrow is well within their reach.
my prediction: garmin, columbia at 15-20 secs, sexy bank at 30-35, astana at 35-40. by my calculation, that would mean that fabian stays in yellow, till thursday most probably.
it’s going to be brilliant. vive la tour!
if i was a pervert
i would have written massage rooms, surely? play nice dude, calling someone a pervert isn’t cool :)
Okay, is my reputation sooo bad that I needed to say I was kidding there?
Alright, don’t everyone answer that with a resounding, yes.
Benrazor, dude, I was kidding.
Really, this is unbelievable.
For what it's worth...
… sminer, I knew you were kidding. I’m hip to your groove, man ;-).
It’s been said many times, and it’s true… text-based discussion and a melting-pot of cultures – it is fertile ground for misinterpretation and misunderstanding. I mean, it never ceases to amaze me how so much of what I say apparently requires translation (for fellow English speakers!)… Flatbagger often has me howling with laughter, but I’m sure that much of what he says is lost on many folks…
don't worry man
i’d had a little to drink, and got all righteous. sober, i know you were kidding :)
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