Sizing Up The Teams For The Stage Four TTT
by ursula on Jul 6, 2009 6:01 PM EDT
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Hey! Let's look at the teams in detail for tomorrow's TTT shall we? I'm not gonna spell out the chances of every team tomorrow. Instead I'll focus on the GC teams, plus Garmin and Columbia. The order below is the order in which they start (and finish).
Remember the rules: The 5th placed rider's time will be the time of the lead group of the team. If any riders after the 5th rider have a time gap then their time is figured separately. Click here to read Crashdan's excellent preview of the course. Under each team I present the riders in order of how important they will be in the TTT:
- Riders in bold will be the workhorses.
- Riders in plain text
willshould finish in the top group. Realize that all GC hopefuls much finish in the top group for their team. - Riders in italics will probably get dropped.
Let's get started:
Rabobank
- Dennis Menchov
- Stef Clement
- Robert Gesink
- Laurens Ten Dam
- Juan Antonio Fletcha
- Joost Posthuma
- Oscar Freire
- Grischa Niermann
- Juan Manual Garate
Commentary: With Gesink the highest on GC at 1:55 down, and Freire sitting on zero points, this team has lost a lot in the first three days, way more than they expected. So this stage is huge for this team. Can they use the stage to become relevant? On paper this is a solid TTT team. No rider is awful and several are quite good so you would expect them to have one of the better times. However a similar team (though not as deep-which is important) finished 39 seconds behind Columbia in the 15 km TTT at Romandie.
Silence Lotto
- Cadel Evans
- Jurgen Van den Broeck
- Staff Scheirlinckx
- Johan Van Summeren
- Sebastian Lang
- Matthew Lloyd
- Charlie Wegelius
- Greg Van Avermaet
- Mickael Delange
Commentary: Oh dear. This is a stage that Cadel can't be looking forward to as he will lose a chunk of time. Look at it this way: his mountain support is much stronger than his TTT support. Outside of him no one else is very good against the clock so this team needs to pull out all the stops in order not to get blown out of the water. The one piece of hope is that the team finished the Romandie TTT only 25 seconds down so maybe they do have the team aspect covered. Still, by the end of the day, Cadel will be looking at 20th place on GC-if he is lucky. Where's Thomas Dekker when you need him?
Cervelo
- Heinrich Haussler
- Thor Hushovd
- Carlos Sastre
- Volodymir Gustov
- Brett Lancaster
- Inigo Cuesta
- Jose Marchante
- Andreas Klier
- Hayden Roulston
Commentary: Oh dear, part deux. When two of your workhorses are your two sprinters, somethings very wrong and this TTT is one of the few occasions that we will see Cervelo caught out. Probably four riders will get dropped here, but who to choose-there are so many candidates! The nightmare scenario is if they feel a need to tow Marchante to the line and he's just sucking.
Milram
- Niki Terpstra
- Peter Velits
- Linus Gerdemann
- Christian Knees
- Markus Fothen
- Fabian Wegmann
- James Frohlinger
- Gerald Ciolek
- Peter Wrolich
Commentary: Should be a better than expected TTT, um, team. Meaning they'll still lose some time but less that you might expect. Terpstra and Velits will share the big load with Gerdemann. They should finish with just five and how they use their dropped riders will determine if Leenos maintains his position in the GC.
Liquigas
- Franco Pellizotti
- Roman Kreuziger
- Vincenzo Nibali
- Brian Vandborg
- Aleksandr Kuschynski
- Daniele Bennati
- Fabio Sabatini
- Frederik Willems
- Alessandro Vanotti
Commentary: Funny team as they have a big range in time trialing abilities so how they do on this stage is way up in the air. The length of this TTT will wear on them more than most of the other teams. Two of Vandborg, Kuschynski, and Bennati must come through for them to keep Kreuziger near the top. I say they accomplish that goal well enough but won;t win the stage.
Garmin
- Bradley Wiggins
- Christian Vandevelde
- Ryder Hesjedal
- David Zabriskie
- David Millar
- Danny Pate
- Tyler Farrar
- Julian Dean
- Martijn Maaskant
Commentary: The first deep TTT group with five very good riders. No wonder they are a possible favorite for this stage. Danny Pate isn't half bad himself but its pretty guaranteed that they will finish with just five. Zabriskie and Millar should hold their positions (17th and 18th) on GC; maybe even move up a tad.
Saxo Bank
- Fabian Cancellara
- Gustav Larsson
- Kurt-Asle Arvesen
- Jens Voigt
- Andy Schleck
- Frank Schleck
- Stuart O'Grady
- Chris Anker Sorensen
- Nicki Sorensen
Commentary: Hmm. They perhaps start out with the best 1-2 punch with Cancellara and Larsson but then they slip and if they need to tow Frank Schleck to the line then their time will not be quite up there with the best. Arvesen and Jens! are solid but no longer among the best.
Columbia
- Tony Martin
- Bert Grabsch
- George Hincapie
- Michael Rogers
- Kim Kirchen
- Maxime Monfort
- Bernhard Eisel
- Mark Renshaw
- Mark Cavendish
Commentary: Loaded. And they have that winning mojo operating overtime. Very smart move yesterday to drop Grabsch out of the lead pack so he could rest for tomorrow but should they have also dropped Martin? And did that strong pull into the wind take the edge off them? How is Kirchen anyway?
Astana
- Alberto Contador
- Levi Leipheimer
- Andreas Kloden
- Lance Armstrong
- Sergio Paulinho
- Yaroslav Popovych
- Gregory Rast
- Haimar Zubeldia
- Dmitriy Muravyev
Commentary: Under the radar team (yeah, right) with four very strong riders. My concerns: a) Armstrong so willingly getting Popo and Zubeldia to help out on the Columbia break may hurt the team here. b) Popo in general, who can pull out great TT's at times as well as complete duds. c) Paulinho is a decent chronoman but definitely a step down in quality from the top four. d) Team cohesion. I seriously doubt we'll see a problem today-unless the team is melting down. e) Since the second half of the course is flat and fast I think this team suffers a bit as their best chronomen don't have those big asses like some TT champions do.
The Call: I go back and forth here on who will win. Right now I say...... Garmin. Columbia and Astana close behind. Those three are a cut above the rest, emaing that you'll see a GC dominated by their riders tomorrow. Most importantly will be the time gaps. With Columbia in the top three, Tony Martin should get the yellow jersey. Saxo I think might be 30 seconds back with Liquigas and Rabobank. Milram will be not too far behind. Cervelo and Silence look to be hurting after tomorrow.
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I can't see Saxo slowing down
to keep Frank Schleck in the mix.
I don’t think Riis really thinks Frank is a man for the GC, and he’s certainly not enough of a GC asset to make it worth hurting Andy’s chances by losing time in the ttt.
Andy’s not a great timetrialer, but he may be good enough to hang on to a fairly fast pace for 39k if he doesn’t have to do any pulls. If Frank gets dropped and Andy’s still there, I think the Saxo train will just keep on rolling.
It'll be something if it happens.
As to Andy not doing any pulls, I think he has to. They can’t hope to equal the other top teams with just three or four riders pulling.
They should just drop Frank early
So when he inevitably Schlecks, he doesn’t take anyone else out with him. At least don’t ever let him pull through.
"I get paid to hurt other people. How good is that? How good is that?
I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, that's good." Jens!
You're right, Andy will likely have to do some work
but not as much as some of his teammates.
I think both Voigt and O’Grady will be stronger riders for Saxo than you indicate up above. O’Grady may get dropped before the finish, but he should be able to give the team some solid help first. Anyone who can win Paris-Roubaix on a solo breakaway can do some hard pulls in a ttt.
Anyway, I stand by main point that they won’t (and shouldn’t) wait for Frank.
by Susie Hartigan on Jul 6, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know if I ever have looked forward to a TTT as much as tomorrows
Btw, Fothen is a pretty good time trialist from time to time. He’s got a couple of top 10 finishes in Grand tour TT’s.
And Vandborg has shown decent TT form lately, both in the TdS and in the Danish nats.
Staring at the swim team gets you killed by a gang of dancing ninja men who know how to twirl.
you've got mail!
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 6, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Methinks you're overlooking
Lancaster and Gustov on cervelo.
Lancaster especially is no slouch.
But if the winds are as bad as it is rumored, Astana might have to bungee-cord Contador to the 2nd team car.
And isn't Roulston an ex-pursuiter
part of the NZ bronze medal winning team last summer in Beijing
Yes he was a pursuiter
No he’s a very average time trialist. Not awful. Just not very good. Hopefully he is better in a team format.
But the ITT and TTT are very different things to ride
in the one you are pacing your effort all the way, in the other you go flat out for bursts of 10, 20, 30 seconds at a time then try to rest as much as possible. Someone who’s used to pulling off those really snappy switches they do on the track and then tucking in and riding half an inch away from the back wheel of the guy in front is going to be able to recover a lot better.
Lancaster and Gustov
I think Gustov will pull his weight but Lancaster… he’s like a few other riders here. Rast and Benna are two others. All three are good to great prologue riders but get them in a TT with any distance and they lose it. Lancaster wil give everything to the cause but you don’t want him as one of your five. That’s my opinion and I hope I’m wrong for Sastre’s sake.
Contador and Levi too could use that bungee cord if it gets real windy.
Nice summary
There are several riders I want to argue are neglected, but that is par for the course. Nice work breaking things into 3 tiers.
As mentioned, Vandborg is an elite TTT. Also, Lancaster was part of the WR Aussie Team pursuit squadra. He KNOWS how to ride fast in a group. VanderFlecha has one of those large rear-ends that puts out an insane amount of wattage as well. He may not be an elite TT rider, but he is STRONG and that counts for a lot. Every year he wins the Jens Voight “Most likely to work in a break” award. JENS! is another rider who makes folks who discount him in TTTs go home crying for their collective mamas. His teammate O’Grady is another one who can generate a sick amount of wattage. Both will drive Saxo-bank home.
Brooklyn Chewing Gum: Vlaanderens Mooiste
Feltcha etc.
Yeah I didn’t mention Fletcha by name but he should be an asset.
Jens! and O’Grady: I worry that they’ve slipped just a bit. They ain;t spring chickens anymore and so I’m looking hard at their performances this year and in HTFU’s case there isn’t much as he’s been hurt, as you know. But they are two strong guys so perhaps they can stand tall tomorrow.
Your points are well taken
You are trying to predict the future and I’m referring to past performances. My guess is that the TTT is a race where experience is more valuable than youthful exuberance.
Brooklyn Chewing Gum: Vlaanderens Mooiste
Yea what's up ursula
I meant to chastise you for dissing Jens. When you want to deliver power you call on Jens. Nice job pointing out O’Grady as well Koppi.
Jens ain't no Grabsch
Maybe that’s the best way to express my view of Jens! these days. Solid; no longer spectacular.
Talent is key, but the aspect I'm looking at for the TTT is motivation.
As for Astana, their perfomance on day one says this TTT is theirs for the taking, but do they want it or just want to stay really close? I don’t know. It seems to me they would just want to stay in the top 3 and really close, but it’s a great stage to win and it says " we are the team you assholes excluded last year, so take that".
Saxo has the yellow and I think they like it. But I don’t see how they can manage to hold on to it. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if they do just manage to hold on, that’s the motivating power of the yellow jersey.
Then my hope for tomorrow is Columbia. I think they come out tomorrow to take another freakin stage and tell the peloton who’s the shit.
Garmin can’t afford to lose tomorrow, if they do then they are almost reduced to pack fodder. Not my words either, a team sponsor supporter was down here riding with us before he left for the Tour and those were his words.
Agreed
Columbia is my pick. Individual talent is only part of the mix, and they’ve won two of these things already this year, so you can’t say they haven’t figured out the team part.
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 6, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions
One thing I didn't mention
that got all that play at the Giro but not here (yet) is the team rivalry between Garmin and Columbia. I have to believe that Garmin is super motivated after losing in the Giro.
and also under a lot of (self-imposed) pressure
It can work both ways. It would be nice to see them have a good showing, but my money is on Columbia.
"I get paid to hurt other people. How good is that? How good is that?
I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, that's good." Jens!
psssst (his predictions)
"I get paid to hurt other people. How good is that? How good is that?
I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, that's good." Jens!
Oh no problem!
Quite understandable. I mean who would see “ursula” and think, “dude”? Not me. (Ursula was the name of my cat.)
Sudden thought
Are they expecting winds tomorrow comparable to today? That might increase the gaps between those teams that look forward to the TTT and those that look forward to it being over.
Brooklyn Chewing Gum: Vlaanderens Mooiste
between teams?
or within them? ;)
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 6, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
new site motto!
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 6, 2009 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice Preview
This article really helped me decide who to include in my fantasy line up over at the Versus Fantasy challenge. I know PoC has a better one but I was too late sigh again thank you
"The Map is not the Territory" ~ A. Korzybski
by le.tour.fan on Jul 6, 2009 7:18 PM EDT reply actions
Sebastian Lang is better than you think.
He got 5th at world’s TT in Stuttgart and is a former German National TT coach. Cadel has one more guy to count on.
I thought Roulston came for a track/pursuit background.
If this is accurate he will be much more valuable to Cervelo. Can anyone confirm/deny this?
The sprinters that can TT a bit such as Roulston and Benna will do a lot better in this because it is a team format
and they can take their huge pulls using there sick wattages numbers and then recover nicely.
I think it will be:
1 Garmin
2. Leaky ( Vandborg is under-rate, especially with his 4th place at worlds in ’06)
3. Astana
American sweep!
And yeah, I know Astana is Kazakh-Belgio-Swiss…
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 6, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Statement time
Astana
Columbia -30
Saxo -60
Liqi -65
Garmin -80
I think there will be gaps. The wind makes this as accurate as a tee shot on the 17th hole at the Players in the wind… That is, a lot of the time dead in the water.
Weather report
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/07643.html
"The Map is not the Territory" ~ A. Korzybski
by le.tour.fan on Jul 6, 2009 8:15 PM EDT reply actions
My prediciton(or more so my hope)
Columbia wins and gains enough time to put T-Mart in yellow. Then Astana second and Silence and Cervelo way back(hey I want Bert to win and I don’t care if it’s big OK?!). That way Bert 3rd and Lance 2nd(or 3rd and 4th with Cance 2nd) up to Friday and then we shall see, maybe T-Mart can even defend with honor for a while.
Vamos Alberto!!!(Contador not Ricco)
c) Paulinho is a decent chronoman but definitely a step down in quality from the top four.
he just finished 25 seconds behind Armstrong in saturday!!
I think Astana will be finsih together, at least the first six. Rast, and the kazack maybe will dropp, but the others i doubt.
I was wondering if that sentence would draw you out!
I win! Yeah that Monaco effort was Sergio’s best effort of the year and you are right to call me on it. If he can do that again tomorrow then they have a good chance of matching anyone.
Rast I think they’ll either drop after he does a couple of strong pulls (and he can do that) or he’ll sit on through the first, more technical and hilly, half then pull on the flats. It will be interesting how they play him- and guys like him (Bennati and Lancaster are two mentioned above). They could be decisive even if they don’t finish with the group.
Zubeldia I wonder about as he doesn’t have the TT chops. Strong guy though-possibly just used for an occasional pull?
Muravyev? Astana is a eight man team this year.
i'm thinking like Discovery and US POstal
and if i’m not wrong they allways finish together, even with guys like Rubiera and Azevedo who TT are their weaks points…
I’m seeing the same about tomorrow, ok, maybe that two will dropp.
by semprenaroda on Jul 6, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Cavendish..
should not be italicized. Stapleton has commented that he is good at the discipline due to his track background, same goes for Renshaw. The effort in a TTT, especially one this short, is a little different from a TT. Sprinter types can aid the team since they can make a relatively short anaerobic effort then tuck back in. Essentially, they can’t take as long of pulls as the TT’ers but they can put in a hard effort and are probably better at it than pure climbers.
He will be dropped
he was dopped pretty early in Romandie when there was a hill and I expect he will be dropped on one of the smaller rises tomorrow. That’s not saying he won’t help but he won’t be finishing with his mates, although Columbia got all 9 across together at the Giro, but that was dead flat.
Vamos Alberto!!!(Contador not Ricco)
misread it a little bit...
assuming that italics meant dead weight, not riders being dropped out of strategy.
Yeah, I just realized I was one p away from writing "he was doped pretty early"...woof, close call
Vamos Alberto!!!(Contador not Ricco)
Well at least I'm not in Argentina with Mark Sanford's woman...
I know, no politics, but I couldn’t resist!!!
Vamos Alberto!!!(Contador not Ricco)
You’re correct here: a TTT is not only the sum of the ITT abilities of the team, it’s actually a lot different.
TTTs suck. You take these incredibly hard pulls for maybe 30 seconds that put you into the red zone, then you drift back and recover, then do it again. Sprinters can do okay here if they can recover, but maybe not if it’s too hilly. Also, 39km is short for a TTT, so it’s really going to be fast.
The people that have trouble with the TTT are the climbers. I think Columbia will win, because as they demonstrated today, they can motor as a unit like no other team. I think Astana might have some trouble, since they are not the most unified outfit in the race and don’t have the collective horsepower of Columbia.
I have little useful to add
other than my in person witnessing of the TTT at the TdG. Many of the same teams (tho’ different players), now that I think about it. CSC, Astana, Slipstream, and High Road. All brought serious talent, but varying levels of team performance. Astana took a while to get it going, looking disjointed, despite the strength of the individuals. CSC was a finely tuned machine from the start, despite having its B-team there. And yet Garmin, which was somewhere between the two, pulled off the win.
Astana
On paper they look to be the guys to beat, but have they rehearsed this thing? I know back in the Postal/Disco days, JB/Armstrong obsessed over the discipline. Prior to this Tour Levi and Lance were in the states while the rest of the team were in Europe. The route is supposed to be pretty technical, and you can be pretty damn sure Saxo, Columbia, and Garmin have put in far more TTT hours than Astana. As Sui mentioned, Astana was pretty disjointed at TdG. I’ll pick:
1. Garmin
2. Columbia
3. Saxo
4. Astana
My darkhorse to crack the top 5 is Milram.
Garmin will win if they dont overthink it.
They just need everyone to pull thru as long as they can, instead of having the big dogs ride on the back until there’s 10k to go like they did in the Giro.
Astana practised
on course last week. What I’ve read would indicate that they’ve done much the same as other teams you mentioned. Not a big fan of theirs, but with time triallers of the quality of Kloden, Leipheimer, Armstrong and Contador who are also really experienced, I’m thinking they’ll be hard to beat.
one thing about wind
is it changes. The gods may have something to do with tomorrow’s outcome. Well, even more so than usual.
Can't really put big George in bold
without doing the same with Voigt and O’Grady, that would be absurd.
Are you going to let ursula slide on the Nicki S dissing?
Nicki is and has always been a huge engine in the Saxo TTT-machine. Probably the main reason he’s here is the fact that he is an absolute beast in the dicipline. He may get dropped as Ursula indicates but it will be after doing a shitton of work.
Very true, €Nicki is a 100% reliable domestique
But forgiveable to overlook him as Nicki usually work in the hidden and is easy to be overlooked.
Voigt on the other hand was quite visible in P-N and O’Grady is certain to be the TTT leader with his skills on the bike, top pace and experience in this discipline.
It should be a pretty well balanced team and I expect/hope the Schlecks can push themselves further when riding in a group than when riding alone.
Some numbers to play around with..
Offical site estimates it will take 43 minutes to finish the course – roughly a 55km/h average (which is 42.33).
If you can average 0.5km/h more than your nearest rival – time gain about 23 seconds.
Columbia need 33 seconds for yellow means they have to go 0.75km/h faster than saxo – Astana 40 seconds – nearer 1km/h faster.
Astana/Columbia separated by 7 seconds – game on
Garmen need 1.00 for yellow – 0.65 km/h faster than Astana/Columbia, nearly 1.5km/h faster than saxo.
Cavendish - "le Mozart du onze-dents" (the Mozart of the 11-tooth sprocket) – L’Equipe
Closest I ever came to collapsing from exhaustion
was after a TTT (2x 90 km with 30’ break) where I was the 5th strongest and we had to finish with 5. Mommy!
so so true
I don’t think most people understand how horrific a TTT is. It is the most painful thing I have ever done on a bike. Whenever I see pictures of TTTs, I wince.
It’s not a TT, it’s more like riding a hard, hard break. You pull through, you go fast, it’s nothing like a TT, which in its own way is manageable – you go as hard as YOU can go, whereas in a TTT, you get mauled and are forced to go as fast as everyone else. Horrible. There’s nothing worse than pulling off and then that five pedal acceleration to get re-attached. It just gets harder and harder. 40k isn’t that short either.
Look at those riders today and feel bad for them. They’ll use a year off their lives because of this.
by jered on Jul 7, 2009 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
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