Tour Stage 7 Preview: Barcelona - Andorra-Arcalís
by crashdan on Jul 9, 2009 1:13 PM EDT
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Stage 7 :: Friday July 10, 2009
224km :: Barcelona - Andorra-Arcalís
God what a massive stage! 139 miles long, with multiple no BS mountains along the way and ending in yet another city state. Cool! To make matters even more interesting, it's a summit finish at 2200m (7,217'), after having departed from, essentially, sea level. How'd you like to do that in a day... let a lone race it.
This is the first true mountainous stage and it should shake things up in the GC placements, particularly as there are a lot of premium riders out there who are far down on the clock and might want to take a nice hard early flier to get back up into the top 10, if they have the form. Too early for Sastre, surely, but Menchov, perhaps?
Particular particulars? Gavia, Gavia!
The Tour continues its Spanish excursion with this first mountain-top finish. The stage departs from the city of Barcelona and heads into the Pyrénées. Leaving Spain, the Tour heads into the independent principality of Andorre. The stage finishes at the ski resort in Arcalis. There are five categorized climbs on the route, though three of the five are not especially difficult. The final climb at Arcalis, rated hors catégorie, should provide an early indication of who has brought his climbing legs to this Tour de France.
The Tour last visited Arcalis in 1997 where it served as the finish for stage 10. That year, 23 year old Jan Ullrich of Deutsche Telekom attacked with 10 kilometers to go, and took the stage win ahead of Marco Pantani of Mercatone Uno and Richard Virenque of Festina. The two climbers finished together 1:08 behind the German. Ullrich’s team leader Bjarne Riis, who won the 2006 [ed. note: we all know Gavia meant to say 1996 :) ] Tour and now manages team Saxo Bank, finished more than 3 minutes behind. Ullrich took the leader’s jersey Arcalis, and went on to win his first - and last - Tour de France.
Courtesy of Gavia's Stage 7 Preview at Steephill.tv
Wow... Ullrich, Pantani and Virenque. What a quality podium :|
Anyway, let's get on with the show! This stage is big, crossing somewhere between a 1/3rd and a full half of the way way across the Spanish peninsula. I just used today's finish line as the starting location, since the maps and time plan that ASO publishes are markedly inferior to those published by RCS (not that Christiane Prudhomme gives a flying fornication as to what I think of their materials). Wikipedia states that Barcelona's average elevation is 12 meters. So there's a long way to go from here!
Once we're out of the city, there's a peachy little climb, but it's unrated and unnamed by ASO. I liked it though, so I snapped screen shots of it.
A lot of rolling terrain will pass under the rider's wheels as they move towards the first rated climb of the day, the Cat.4 Côte de Montserrat of 4.1km in length and 3% or so gradient.
Once through Manresa, it's only a matter of 40 kilometers before the first red line climb, the Cat.3 Port de Solsona. Don't mind the funky little lines around Clariana de Cardener; Google Earth has no idea how to handle Spanish streets.
Once over the 708m Port de Solsona, there isn't much rest before attacking the first real mountain pass of the Tour, the 1160m pass of Col de Serra-Seca. The peloton will have an intermediate sprint in Solsona, followed by a wheel-entangling Musette-a-thon and then the climb will start. The Col de Serra-Seca is a typical Pyrénées gut punch of 7.7 km over an average 7.1% gradient.
The descent though, doesn't look too steep, so not much chance for the wicked descenders in the pack to do much of anything and as soon as you hit the trough, such as it is, it's right back up again over the Cat.3 Port del Comte.
Again, the descent looks fairly miniscule as the general tilt of the day seems "up" as they head to Alinya then wend their way northwest towards the final destination in Andorra.
The final climb to the Arcalís ski station is listed as 10.6km in length, but I can guarantee you that it's all false flat from Organya on. Expect the Princesa of Organya to make an appearance on the road side as the riders pass through.
You know, Princesa Leia Organya?
The final two intermediate sprints lie just inside the boundries of Andorra (I think) at Andorra la Vella and La Cortinada.
Then, finally, at El Serrat, the road tilts up for well and truly, ascending the final climb to Arcalís. As previously mentioned, the summit finish is at 2240 meters, and has an official length of 10.6km. The average gradient is 7.1% over that length. The crappy final climb profile provided by ASO on the Tour website seems to indicate that the worst gradient occurs in the first 4km of the climb out of El Serrat, which makes me think that that first left hand hairpin must really, really, suck.
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Threadjack: the favorites!
1. Someone from Astana — JB likes to hit ‘em early, though I’m a little meh about Contador attacking. My guess is he’ll take it easy until the final phase. Lance could go yellow-hunting, which would upend the race.
2. LuLu Sanchez — Gotta start thinking of Spanish climbers.
3. Kim Kirchen — probably the last mountaintop finish he can win, and by win I mean hang on for dear life until the last KM and then take a sprint.
4. Denis Menchov — OK, probably not, but he’s made a living off wins in the Pyrenees, and if he jumps with 2km the main favorites won’t bother following.
5. The kids: Tony Martin? Nah, the pack would probably chase him. Kreuziger has the same problem, though a small gap might be tolerated. Anton?
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 9, 2009 2:03 PM EDT reply actions
If Lance get's yellow on this stage, with ANY sort of gap on the others...
… it may become extremely hard to tear that jersey from his back if he has real form. I don’t think any of us has really seen enough to this point to judge that form yet. In the end, would you rather be Di Luca or Menchov going up Vesuvio?
Also, if Lance has yellow, then it sets up a couple of interesting possibilities…
1. Contador possibly attacking his own teammate in the mountains…
2. The 2009 version of Schleck the Elder in Yellow and Sastre punching out of the group on L’Alpe.
Of course, there’s the Col d’Aspin and Tourmalet on Saturday, followed by an almost entirely downhill stage on Sunday (couple of Cat.4’s at the beginning but a general downward tilt to the day), so maybe no one wants to even open up the book of matches tomorrow, let alone burn any.
Respect the Shit List; it respects you.
"Have not seen enough to judge his form yet"
Why do I get the feeling that we will be still saying this in Paris. :-P
"Never swing a small stick. " Andy Hampsten
Definitely said that in 2005...
… also could validly have said it about Contador in the ’08 Giro. And yet they both stood atop the GC at the end.
I don’t have to be faster than the bear…
Respect the Shit List; it respects you.
possibility 2
No way this happens with Contador as the person making the attack. I guarantee you that if Contador is attacking at any time in the mountains he will have people glued to his wheel. I could see a situation like this with Levi though where if Bert or LA hold yellow Levi could go on a flyer without people chasing him.
but the reason that Bert is the favourite is that when he attacks, people can’t hold his wheel.
"Never swing a small stick. " Andy Hampsten
That was really meant to be "attempt to hold his wheel"
They will react to it is probably a better way of putting it.
Aspin and Tourmalet are on Sunday.
Saturday has a couple cat 1s and a cat 2. Neither Saturday or Sunday are mountaintop finishes. As far as I can tell, there are 3 mountaintop finishes in this year’s tour: tomorrow, Verbier (which is the first of the three Alpine stages), and, of course, Ventoux.
yes but the Grand Bornand stage
is nasty … 5 climbs and the only severe steepness (Roselend but more so Romme and Colombiere) apart from Ventoux and Tourmalet … and the final descent is short and fast. I think it is the hardest stage by far and definitely one fr the climbers
But agreed … the Pyrenees stages are a little neutered due t the long descents after the climbs.
sometimes life is a false flat
Verbier
I think may sadly be a disappointment … not a hard climb at all (they exclude the very 6 steep kms above the posh resort). Some short sharp action maybe.
whereas the Bornand stage will be directly after Verbier and the St Bernard stage … so everyone tired.
sometimes life is a false flat
Sometimes the easier looking climbs can be the most exciting
I remember in 2007 the opening climb to Tignes wasn’t considered overly difficult, and the end result was an action packed stage. Same in 1996 at Les Arcs. Of course that stage had two difficult climbs that preceded Les Arcs, and I’m not sure the same applies to Verbier this year.
If I haven't said so before
it is way cool to have someone who rides these climbs daily (well thereabouts) to put them into perspective. Thanks for suffering on our behalf.
"How'd you like to do that in a day"
No prob. I just get in the car and… what? you mean on a bike? I think I’ll leave that to the pros ;-)
Bjarne Riis won the 2006 tour?
That’s impressive for a guy who was 42 at the time!
That's a typo
There was no Tour in 2006.
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 9, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I've heard that this Tour is the first since 2005
Staring at the swim team gets you killed by a gang of dancing ninja men who know how to twirl.
by TheFigurehead on Jul 9, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
tracks4bikers.com has some good profiles
and a really lousy site design. It’s easier to use Google’s site: search than to wade through what they offer. Arcalis gives one result. Is that helpful?
I'd never seen that site before
but I really like that profile. I especially like the little tracker that follows the map and profile at the same time so you can see where, as crashdan said, that first left turn kicks up to 15%. Brutal…
wow... that site is almost perfect...
… they just need to do a little more debugging and add a teensy bit more functionality and that would be THE go to site for stage profiles!
Respect the Shit List; it respects you.
I think the actual race course of tomorrow ends just a little bit further up, passed those switchbacks and finishing just before the next refuge with the parked cars (with the big empty parking lot next to the ski lift).
Yeah... It's a massive guess on my part...
… the course materials supplied by RCS for the Giro were very specific as to what the course did, where it turned, what roads it took and was extremely specific for the finishes. ASO, just sort of gives extremely generic “It finishes in Andorra… at a Ski station called Arli$$ or Aspic or something like that”. So my finish line is a conglomeration of distance estimation from El Serrat, combined with the finish line estimated by Steephill.TV, combined with the official “final kilometers” graph from ASO.
Respect the Shit List; it respects you.
Absolutely...
The route materials start off fantastic in May… grow worse in July… and are entirely useless come Vuelta.
Respect the Shit List; it respects you.
Awww maaan?!
Are you saying the Tour of Poland profiles are going to be crap? That would just ruin my season.
Nice preview as always, thanks!
Ullrich’s 1997 attack at Arcalis can be seen here, courtesy of ManfredMuskel; the Arcalis bit starts @ 0:57.
Ô col Bayard, Ô Tourmalet, à côté du Galibier, vous êtes de la pale et vulgaire bibine !
Seeing that footage again is kinda sad
Being that it inspired me once and afterwards…well….you know the rest. :(
It's Euskie time!!!
As I mentioned in the post-race thread, the boys in cantaloupe orange have been shedding minutes so that they can race their mini-vuelta tomorrow.
ASTARLOZA – 4’04
ANTON – 5’11
OROZ – 5’13
VERDUGO – 5’20
MARTINEZ – 6’04
TXURRUKA – 6’44
PEREZ MORENO – 7’59
FERNANDEZ – 11’52
and of course, on the bottom step of the lantern rouge podium
PEREZ LEZAUN – 24’05
So do they flip a coin for who goes in the early break, and who attacks late?
"Never swing a small stick. " Andy Hampsten
Well you can probably eliminate Txurruka
I would say Martinez. Astarloza is still too close. They are going to become in the Tour what ISD was to the Giro. Wait or maybe that is Cofidis.
Some of the French KOM hopefuls are quite a bit behind in GC, too
Moncoutie @ 6’ 18’’
Moreau @ 8’ 04’’
Fedrigo @ 8’ 13’’
The 1st category climb is some way from Arcalis, but a well timed attack there may bring 15 points, and then there’s the hope of adding 40 more to that at the finish…
Ô col Bayard, Ô Tourmalet, à côté du Galibier, vous êtes de la pale et vulgaire bibine !
Tomorrow Contador = Cadel
He will not stray from Lance’s wheel until he leaps past him on the last climb. OK, the analogy fails as I predict Alberto will attack rather than follow the whole race(Cadel’s recent DL race notwithstanding).
by pigilito on Jul 9, 2009 3:59 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Video of the climb here
This is danish TV doing their pre-ride of the Arcalis climb with Rolf Sörensen and an unusually out of shape commentator Dennis Ritter.
The comments are in danish, mainly a retelling of how Ullrich took over leadership from Riis on this climb in 2007 1997. Interesting note. Although he did lose a lot of time, he was in fact fifth on the stage so it wasn’t like he bonked or anything. Jan just had an extraordinary day.
I want a replay of that action tomorrow
Jan leaps from the crowds, attacks Riis, dragging him from the car. Then gets onto the mic and starts telling the Saxo boys how to play things out.
"Never swing a small stick. " Andy Hampsten
oops
perhaps that mental image was supposed to stay inside my head.
"Never swing a small stick. " Andy Hampsten
No problem
I’m hoping Sheryl Crow is standing by the side with a LOT of musette bags, whose handles are fluttering in the breeze, just as the Astana train comes by…
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 9, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions
woooohooo mountains!!!!
I don’t care if this is not that steep. It’s high, beautiful and uphill.
Bizarre question of the day: Can Cancellara really climb? Given the stages after tomorrow he’ll drop, but tomorrow is at least slightly intriguing after his Tour de Suisse.
sometimes life is a false flat
Intriguing Astana-centered scenario
Understanding that there are MANY other players and potential scenarios that do NOT involve Astana, it is quite obvious that their situation is one of the most compelling at this juncture. Therefore, allow me to throw out the below Astana scenario for you to digest. I’m very interested in hearing input from you real racing experts here (which appears to be most in this community)
SCENARIO: Since I believe that JB will be protecting all of the “Big 3” Astana riders (AC, LL, LA), maybe to different degrees, I think (or is it hope?) that one of them will attack. The attack might be by JB’s direction, or on his own, depending on how “he” feels. Most likely, in my opinion? Levi, as that move is the least risky for JB for splitting the team early on. NO DOUBT, both AC and LA would follow. This sets up the ultimate climbers showdown that many of us would love to witness (at least I would).
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES (and aftermath):
1. AC flexes his prodigious climbing muscles and lays to rest any speculation about who is the Astana leader. AFTERMATH: LA and LL will now ride in support of AC, unless AC totally cracks in a future mountain stage, a letdown that threatens Astana’s overall GC title hopes. If this AC bad day were to happen, and assuming one or both of LA and LL are still in striking distance, all bets would be off.
2. LA has been sandbagging a bit, finds his old climbing form, and takes the yellow, dropping at least AC. AFTERMATH: Pretty obviously a reverse of #1 above, other than a potential Astana implosion with AC not willing to support LA in the first week. AC might do it begrudgingly, but he would have sights on later opportunities.
3. LL is a beast and takes it. AFTERMATH: Hmmmm??? Would wither AC or LA ride in support of LL this early? I doubt it, at least not seriously.
OK, I know this is hypothetical, but I can’t resist throwing it out there for fun. Maybe it is just wishful thinking on my part!?
Thanks for playing along.
a very very very long shot
but it would be a blast if LL had a crack …. but I think other GC guys could track him (eg Cadel, Sastre, etc)
sometimes life is a false flat
I think the internal insecurity screws them a little bit
In my mind the obvious choice would be to send LA on the attack forcing other teams (who fear him no matter what they say) to chase. Then AC hits them with a counterattack they can’t respond to. Game Over.
However I just don’t think AC trusts Lance (nor Levi for that matter) enough to use this tactic. Therefore I think we will get a lot of wait and see from Astana. Hard pace from guys like Paulihno, Zubes and then Klöden and Levi followed by marking and perhaps countering any attacks from the opposition. No fireworks.
AC will follow either LA or LL if they attack
and LA would cover any move by AC. I’d be willing to wager that neither AC nor LA fully trusts Bruyneel, either.
If it wasn’t for AC not trusting anyone, the right move would be to send LL on the attack about halfway up the Arcalis climb and force any non-Astana GC hopefuls to either follow, and get sucked into an ensuing counterattack, or let Levi go and maybe lose two or three minutes to him.
They might still send Klodi on the attack, but I’m not sure any GC contender would follow him.
I would debate that...
… if there is anyone, ANYONE, in this world that Lance trusts more than his brain surgeon, it would be Bruyneel.
Respect the Shit List; it respects you.
It was steep enough for Ullrich in '97
Should be steep enough for AC too. I don’t think Cance has a chance tomorrow.
He just still looks too heavy
I know Indurain was 175 lb as well, but cycling has changed, and nowadays it’s necessary to be as lean as possible on these steep climbs. Given how talented he is I don’t think it’s impossible for him to finish in the top 5 or maybe even the podium in a few years time if he can slim off a few more pounds. He’d probably have to sacrifice Roubaix and Flanders though. :(
Glad you like... that bike is a blast to ride....
Just to maybe run some diversion from some recent vile drivel below, here are a few others…
The other experimental vehicle… the Quadrabike. (that is my daughter providing back seat horsepower):
onother for fun
photo taken by my daughter from the back of the above Quadrabike… me on the left, Vinny on the right on his Big Wheeler. These are from mid-week of the week-long ride across Iowa (a state full of corn and pigs, for you non-US folks!).
Again, sorry for the hijack… some good humor seemed needed….
Hm
you guys apparently grow more than corn…
That said, I do love creative bike designs. Thanks!
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 9, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Is that RAGBRAI?
I hear that ride is awesome.
When I'm on the mic, I'm like global warming, you can't ignore me.
by tehGrindCrusher on Jul 9, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes that is RAGBRAI... this year will be my 21st
Considering that the ride consists of 10,000+ riders for 500 miles over 7 days, as you can see from our above photos, we are very late day riders! We tend to ride more after it gets dark, and hang out in the through-town bars a LONG time… we rarely leave each day before Noon, and a few thousand riders have already finished their days by then…. Most of our “back 500” ride self-contained and take our times.
Here is what a peak RAGBRAI day looks like:
AND YES, LA has ridden the last few:
Wha?
If AC doesn’t trust Levi, then I don’t know what/who AC could trust. 2007, anyone? LL buried himself for AC. Completely.
Armstrong, I wouldn’t trust to take my bibs to the laundry.
I know about 2007 but
look at the quotes from after the Vuelta. I’m not saying LL isn’t trustworthy, in fact I think he comes off as one of the most loyal teamplayers out there. Trust isn’t an objective thing though and for whatever reason i don’t think AC feels it for LL.
End of LA as we know it ...
Hmmm. Interesting. I see we are now listed under "general blogs." Do those others blogs involve sports too? I think I’ve heard of one of them before. It had something to do with either a hoop or a stick…
Anyway, everybody has got it all wrong. And I’m baaaack… Tomorrow, the yellow jersey changes hands. Who’s it gonna be?
It comes down to LA or somebody else. Prediction: LA will suck wheel (mainly Leipheimer’s and Kloden’s) the whole day and then try to hang on for dear life in order to claim the jersey that he "rightfully owns, deserves" etc., experienced, champion of champions, blah, blah, blah. End of tactics. Near maniacal narcissism, record setting ego, but subpar fitness, and no EPO help him out when he really needs it.
His only option is to transfuse (tonight as we speak) a bag of whole blood or 1-2 bags of his own platelets if he is using a clinic to help him spin them down. The whole blood won’t help him out much since he’ll feel like a water balloon. Besides, it takes several days for transfused blood to have its maximal beneficial effect. Platelets are another story, still not necessarily easily detectable, but high risk. The IGF-1 and HGH that he’s been mainlining (and are still as yet undetectable) and the CERA (not 2 weeks in Aspen, CO) he’s been titrating have had their long term effects, built up his musculature, reduced his body fat content (strangely as usual just before the tour start) and improved his vasculature.
Only problem is, WE ALREADY KNOW LA’s sustainable power at LT are only good enough for a 10th place finish as in the prologue, already 20 seconds down to Contador in twenty minutes, and 10 seconds down to Kloden and fellow countryman Leipheimer. Worse, these guys have years of grand tour fitness ahead of him. Worse yet, they all have a better power-to-weight ratio (W/kg). Even more worser (if there is such a word) … Contador has the best power and the least weight of them all. So it’s Contador over LA by another 20 seconds, about 2-3 seconds ahead of LA at the end of the day for GC and the yellow jersey.
So if LA tries to pull a Jan Ulrich going into Andorre Arcalis, think autologous blood doping. If you see clear evidence of fatigue over one week’s racing, then Contador beats LA by 20 sec per major mountaintop finish. That gives Contador the Tour win over whoever is #2 by 1:30 sec. We might even see Leipheimer dropping LA (eventually) on the next big climbs (Verbier and Mt Ventoux) as this who’s #1 comedy progresses.
Further predictions! Contador doesn’t win the stage, but some young, maniacal 120 lb Spaniard from Euskaltel – Euskadi (e.g., Mikel Astarloza) does. Maybe even Carlos Sastre (Spain), Andy Schleck, or Cadel Evans for all I know. Menchov is out of it. Main thing is, Contador will put the final nail in LA’s old coffin at the foot of the climb (steepest part = 7.7% – 8.7%). The new mainstream media story will be all about cancer, forgotten heroes, and all about "us." (Tears are starting to well…)
Sweet…
by RoadRash911 on Jul 9, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'll let Chris decided what to do with that post up there, but please, PLEASE, no one take the bait...
… it’s not worth it. Just ignore this post and move on.
Respect the Shit List; it respects you.
Doping chatter
probably won’t get people interested in talking to you.
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 9, 2009 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting read
recently in Sports Illustrated if you havn’t seen it already.
Tour de France, cycling a clash of cultures for Americans, Europeans
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/the_bonus/07/07/tour/index.html
Good news is there are 50 targeted riders. Hopefully things don’t get to far out of hand :-)
UCI, AFLD running targeted testing at Tour
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/uci-afld-running-targeted-testing-at-tour
Saw it
posted here yesterday. Good stuff that.
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 9, 2009 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Only problem is
that Arcalis is a diesel climb, not an Igor Anton climb.
Menchov won there in 2007 and Evans was 2nd or 3rd.
Don’t be surprised if Swiss Bear wins. (Or Tony Martin).
I’m afraid you might be right
All Lance bashing aside, I think we all agree that doping (or the mere suspicion of doping) ruins this sport. Nevertheless, the top half of the climb is flat enough that some of those guys could almost big ring it. That leaves open the possibility of Astana (or a coupla ad hoc groups/stragglers from earlier attacks) sheltering a favored rider who then hangs on for a ten second loss to the "winner" for a net 10 second lead in the GC standings and a yellow jersey.
The horror…
He is kind of a big teton, isn't he?
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 9, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm
I say there won’t be much in the way of attacking tomorrow. Not a very difficult HC climb. It is possible/probable that a change in the yellow jersey happens tomorrow, the day won’t crack the field open.
What might well happen is a rider targeting the KOM to win a solo attack.
personally I think it's a misclassified
category 1 …. but still worthwhile
sometimes life is a false flat
Oh why don't you just go and take a stupefyingly beautiful picture already
Respect the Shit List; it respects you.
It's Spain
they used the Vuelta grading scale.
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 9, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably the day for a moncoutie break
Cofidis has been really involved in the breaks so far with Auge today and Dumoulin yesterday. The only problem with sending out Moncoutie is that they would potentially be taking the jersey off their own guy. But Auge can’t be expected to keep it since their are far more mountain points tomorrow than have been issued thus far.
I still say Moncoutie.
Auge himself expects losing it tomorrow
Don’t remember where I read it tho.
Staring at the swim team gets you killed by a gang of dancing ninja men who know how to twirl.
by TheFigurehead on Jul 9, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
possible Moncoutie waits until Stage 9 then
When he would get more points for Tourmalet and Col d’Aspin
Moncoutie yes
but he must be also thinking about his legs and Bastille day … (July 14th)
Vive La France
sometimes life is a false flat
too many other guys are already attempting that.
It will be like a breakaway of every single french team :)
I just finished reading the jean Bobet autobiography
and his little references on how the Italian fans in the 50s used to push their own riders up hills and pull back French riders was fascinating …. July 14th should see nothing but french “bum pushes” on any hills – sadly a flat stage.
sometimes life is a false flat
yes, and
the next two days are more difficult but the finishes are so far from the top of the climbs …..
I’d take a 100 – 1 bet that Fabian keeps yellow after the pyrénées (yes I have a beer in hand)
sometimes life is a false flat
Well I don-t have a beer in hand-yet
But I agree it is possible for Cancellara to hold the yellow tomorrow. I doubt it, but possible.
My guess is that any attacking will come from the GC guys down the list a bit: Evans, Menchov, Sastre, Frank Schleck definitely and maybe his brother, Jennifer Grey. The trick then is to see who keeps up. Most will keep up but some will crack.
Possible crackers:
Kloden
Armstrong
Nibali
Martin
Monfort
Kirchen
Wait
2 posts up you say there won’t be any attacking? Are you just covering all the bases so that regardless what happens you can say “I told you so”. So sneaky
"Never swing a small stick. " Andy Hampsten
Change in the yellow jersey...
… isn’t that enough to provoke some kind of attack? You really think Contador will be happy with Lance putting on the maillot jaune after all the GC contenders finish in a single group?
No.
But the time gaps won’t be big at all after the stage. I said it wrong when I said no attacks. I meant to say no decisive attacks- and say Contador beating Armstrong to the line by 30 seconds is not decisive (unless you think Armstrong might win the Tour. I do not.)
So climbers will lose time but no one wil gain a lot.
You don't think Armstrong can win the tour...
… because you didn’t have the presence of mind to take him with your first pick in the Editor’s Only League.
Speaking of which, I think it’s high time there was an Ed. Only League Smack thread around here so we can all gang up on the person down at the… oh… right…
Respect the Shit List; it respects you.
I forgot to mention...
Phenomenal preview… thanks for putting in the hard work… ALL of the previews and articles have been fantastic.
OK, my newbie ass-kissing requirement is now completed, right?
Evans and others almost have to attack
This is the first of three mountain top finishes in the tour this year. Stage 15 and Stage 20 being the other two. I just don’t see how a guy like Evans or Sastre who are well down on the GC would let a chance like this go by the wayside to at least attempt to take back some time on the leaders.
I am not saying they will succeed but they almost have to try.
Evans was terrific
in the dauphiné (attitude wise) …. and I will cheer every attack … but I have no faith that he can do it even on one stage.
sometimes life is a false flat
Yes they do have to try.
What would be interesting if a serious attack forms on the cat 1 climb. That ewould only happen if a main GC contender feels that they have to attack ASAP. Very doubtful that it will happen, but it would be fun.
Tactics, Tactics, Tactics
Believe it r not I am not rooting for any Particular rider (or against any either) or any particular Team (ditto) I just want to see some real Tactics and countermoves from any & all who would presume to have aspirations in this year’s Tour. I dread the ‘wait & see’, ’don’t show your cards’ wait until the Alps strategy. Can anyone give me some encouragement that we will get some bone fide “oh no they didn’t” Race Tactics in the Pyrenees ?
"The Map is not the Territory" ~ A. Korzybski
by le.tour.fan on Jul 9, 2009 6:13 PM EDT reply actions
Given how few uphill finishes there are
I think the guys that need to make up time (Evans, Menchov, Schlecks) should try and do something (I’d inlcude Sastre but he’ll probably lay low until Ventoux). I don’t expect Astana to try and do anything but cover tomorrow. I think JB would like to keep as many guys as he can in contention for as long as he can. Sending someone out as a rabbit might help one or two riders, but probably cost the rabbit his top 10 overall. I don’t see him wanting to do that on the first mountain stage.
Which probably means AC attacks the first chance he gets.
"I get paid to hurt other people. How good is that? How good is that?
I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, that's good." Jens!
rooting
Nothing unusual about cycling fans not hoping for one specific outcome. I know in the Tour of Flanders I am usually rooting for a minimum of 15 different guys and teams.
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 9, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll predict
Astana gets Poppo in a break, attacks on the second climb, on the third, and every one after.
If LA doesn’t think he can beat AC overall, he will want a yellow Jersey. He is the favorite to get it tomorrow in my book. He will have it by some time.
If LA thinks he can win anyway he will still want the yellow. The when AC attacks in later stages he can just follow.
All valid possibilities...
… but I don’t know if he can “just follow” Contador. Not because Lance is old or anything… I just don’t know if ANYONE can follow Contador if The Accountant is on his game.
Respect the Shit List; it respects you.
I think any rational person would have to agree. For me, I’ll have to see LA get dropped hard by AC before I’ll believe it. That is no knock on Bert… he IS the man. I just have an odd feeling that LA MIGHT be much closer to his old self than some of us think. People point to LA’s Giro performamance, which means very little in my estimation. What LA has done since then, combined with any race shape he might have gotten this first week, will tell the tale. In the end, his time away and age will most likely betray him, but the effort will certainly promise to be maximum.
yeh
well… it’s all conjecture. Frankly I really don’t think Armstrong knows how this is going to go for him. My guess is that he wakes up one morning and those 37-year-old blood vessels in his legs say to him, ‘nuh-uh.’ One jour sans. Otherwise he’s on form.
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 9, 2009 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Sastre can
But I also don’t think that Sastre can gain any time on Contador. He’s fundamentally fucked, I think. Lost too much time in the previous stages, and no future opportunities to make it up, no matter his ability to track AC from here to Paris.
Anything Sastre can do
Bert can do better.
Your power is turning our darkness to dawn,
Roll on Columbia, Roll on!
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 9, 2009 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
except remembering to eat?
but I don’t have much hope of that happening a second time
"I get paid to hurt other people. How good is that? How good is that?
I get paid to make other people suffer on my wheel, that's good." Jens!
If LA gets yellow
I think it’s serious trouble for Astana. All LA-bashing (which I quite sincerely enjoy) aside, I don’t think he can hold it. But he does, and JB may think he can. So if he picks up yellow, we’ll be seeing a situation in which someone who can actually hold it (i.e., Contador) is shoved into the role of protecting someone who can’t. Which is a serious fucking shame. And will turn me into an immediate and complete Andy Schleck cheerleader.
Probably wouldn't be trouble for Astana
I understand what you are saying, but I personally think LA gaining yellow puts Astana in an even stronger position. Anyone who thinks that JB would hold back AC if he is clearly stronger, or that AC would expend himself much to protect LA, is smoking some good stuff.
If AC is truly as strong in the steeps as many think, he might be best to have LA in yellow. LA will have to counter threatening GC-contender attacks (there would be MANY), AC would still be riding protected, and be in a perfect condition to follow, and when LA can’t match the attacks, AC would be turned loose to counter and keep the yellow for Astana. IF LA proves to be as weak as many seem to think, this is a very plausible scenario.
OR LA is stronger than some give gim credit for, and is able to defend the yellow and add to the margin?
hmmm….
JB wants Lance to win,
and I wholeheartedly believe that he would most certainly hold back AC back whether or not he is stronger; he just needs to get Alberto to drink the Kool-Aid.
Remember Johan’s comments last summer. Something to the effect that Alberto was a boring winner, and he would relish the thought of working with LA again.
Make no mistake, Bruyneel will go to almost any length to put “his man” into yellow once again. $$$.
by The Team Chef on Jul 9, 2009 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions
No way AC holds back because Bruyneel tells him it's in the teams best interest
AC is not Greg Lemond in 1985, he won the previous 3 grand tours he’s taken part in. Lance hadn’t ridden a grand tour since 2005 before he finished 12th in the Giro a month ago, and he’s gizzer (in cycling terms of course)
If AC doesn’t take the jersey tomorrow it’s because the race wasn’t hard enough, or he because he made a foolish error by not eating or drinking enough and bonks. It won’t be Lance outriding him. Those days are long gone. Lance may outride LL, he may even outride Cadel Evans (longshot) but he’s not dispensing with AC. And everyone, including Bruyneel, knows that.
I agree, to a point.
I don’t think Lance can outride him in the mountains, but that’s not the point I’m trying to make. Lance doesn’t have to leave AC in the dust to get yellow, all he has to do is stay even. What if no one attacks tomorrow, and Cance can’t hold the pace with the front group? Guess who’s in yellow?
Bruyneel has this uncanny ability to get riders to toe the party line. I hope I’m wrong, but Bert gives the impression that he’ll buy into this bullshit (see RoadRash911’s comment below).
by The Team Chef on Jul 9, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions
A couple of points
- Well before the Tour started, Contador said that this stage wouldn’t be decisive. Maybe someone loses the Tour but there will be no real big Selection. So possibly Lance gets yellow anyway-even if Contador doesn’t buy into what Bruyneel is selling. Its just not the right stage.
- On the other hand, I can’t imagine no one attacking tomorrow. Saxo is giving some strong signals that they won’t lay down for Astana. If so, I think then Contador is allowed to track down Andy and Frank and whoever while domestiques help Lance up the hill. If the attacks aren’t hard enough, Lance gets yellow (that’s my first point). If they are, Bert does. I think Levi goes with Bert.
+1
I think Saxo Bank makes a move tomorrow, especially if Cance gets dropped quickly, otherwise they’ll probably have to remain quiet until the Alps…which is a ways off. I could definitely see either of the Schlecks going full throttle and AC chasing them down. Although I would imagine that Frank will get more leeway.
Caisse d’Epargne set to help Contador?
- the man with the golden gun …
Here’s another scenario/rumor with some historical precedent:
"From the car, they told me that I cannot let these opportunities pass by and I agree. I didn’t collaborate with Mosquera and I was going at a comfortable pace because I didn’t need to take out more differences," Contador said. "Caisse d’Epargne confided in Alejandro (Valverde) and we could take advantage of their work. Ezequiel made a great climb, but there were time bonuses at the finish line, so I had to go for the win."
I hope you’re wrong about the "no selection" part.
Evans, Andy Schleck and Sastre have to attack because they are way behind and its a rest day on Saturday. Caisse d’Epargne and Euskaltel – Euskadi have to attack because this is Spain. LA and AC will have to attack to see who wears yellow…
I do agree with you though, Levi well track down who is delivering the most promising attack and Contador will follow, to a point…
"By the end of the day, we will know who is strong enough to win the Tour," said the five-time Tour winner Bernard Hinault of France. "I say Contador."
Here’s a good summary of all our speculation courtesy of the IHT:
After Sprint Finish, the Real Showdown Begins
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/10/sports/cycling/10climb.html?_r=1&ref=global
So
You think Bruyneel could actually look AC in the eyes and seriously say that he wants him to sacrifice his chances for a second victory because Lance winning would be a bigger story? I thought Astana’s MO was “work for the strongest rider” something which Lance is always fond of saying.
To me, there’s no way on this Earth that AC sandbags it for anyone, and if Bruyneel and Armstrong try to hold back AC they’re a bunch of hypocrites. I have no problem with the best rider on the planet sacrificing a win in Castilla Leon or Algarve for the sake of a lesser rider but not at the Tour. That’s like asking Roger Federer to take a dive at Wimbledon.
No
I think Johann will look AC in the eyes and tell him that Lance getting yellow tomorrow will be a good thing in the long run, both for Bert and the team. I’m guessing Bruyneel thinks the mountains aren’t quite as selective this year, and just maybe Lance can actually gain time on Alberto in a flattish TT. At some point it will be mano a mano, but JB will want to postpone that as long as possible.
Yes, I do think they are hypocrites, and all that “work for the strongest rider” noise is pure bullshit. $$$
by The Team Chef on Jul 9, 2009 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
AC backing off a bit?
http://www.lequipe.fr/Cyclisme/breves2009/20090710_004624_la-tension-grimpe.html
Basically says AC doesn’t see the 7th stage a big duel, and quotes him kind of spouting the party line, "Everybody expects us to attack, but the it’s the other racers that need to go on the offensive."
As the tension builds…
PS: I agree, JB threw AC under the bus almost immediately after the break on stage three. Loyalty to whom? Or what ($$)?
My two pennies,
which usually don’t amount to a whole lot, since I’m usually wrong.
Lance is an incredibly smart rider. I’m sure he is well aware that Contador can ride him off of his wheel when the road tilts up. That said, he certainly knows that his best chance of a final jersey is going to depend not only finding his former climbling legs, but also on team politics falling in his favor. If he can somehow convince JB to let him be the designated Astana yellow jersey guy tomorrow, then Alberto is going to be riding in his shadow for a while. I really think this is Johan’s strategy – let’s give LA a chance and if Bert is strong enough, he can take it from him on the Ventoux, but either way we win.
If I’m Bert, I get my 30 seconds on Lance tomorrow, claim the jersey, and assert myself as the undisputed team leader. If he buys into allowing Lance into yellow, then he’s going to be put into a very awkward position going forward – attack his own team leader who’s wearing the maillot jaune.
Of course, it’s all a moot point if LA can’t climb with the best. We’ll know soon enough.
Something is going to happen
Basic thrust, if Alberto attacks and nobody can follow him then I will hang back with the others if I can… It’s up to Sastre and the others down on GC to attack, not me…
The thing I would LOVE to see most!
Is Garmin sending out VdV on an attack early! Might as well test his form early to see where he is at. So far I think they have a great mindset in the tour and I would be cheering hard if I saw VdV out on an attack!
Early? Very risky
if he gets caught before the climb or with a large chunk of it left then he loses minutes, Tour GC hopes over. The climb isn’t too brutal tomorrow, he can limit his loses to under 2 mins I feel.
Vamos Alberto!!!(Contador not Ricco)
Bad plan
You don’t want to send VdV out early. You send a Hesjedal out for KoM points maybe, but leave VdV until the end. His form might actually be better than anyone thinks, and an early attack all but rules out his GC chances. Even if he won tomorrow, he’d be dead the next day and maybe even the day after. Unless you’re the Chicken, Sella, or Ricco, you can’t do that.
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