La Vuelta: Who's On Your Podium Now?
by Chris Fontecchio on Sep 11, 2009 3:16 PM EDT
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Print[Quick power poll. My run of ridiculously busy days isn't quite over.]
Two more Sierra Nevada stages. Two stages around Avila. 30km against the watch in Toledo. That's what's left to decide the 2009 Vuelta, and as you can see from the current GC, absolutely nothing has been decided yet. Here are the top eight and a case for and against their making the final podium:
1. Alejandro Valverde +0.00
Where he can win: In the final KM of any mountain stage... if he's still on the front. Hard (though not impossible) to see Valverde just leaving his rivals behind, but he should be able to mark Evans all day long and scoop up any available bonuses.
Where he can lose: Sunday, or in the final ITT. Valverde suffers on the occasional climb, though it's hard to detect a pattern as to which climbs are the worst. The best I can say is, his big deficit last year was the day after the Angliru, so tomorrow's climbs might leave him a little spent on Sunday. He limits his losses against the watch pretty well these days 
too.
Vueltabecco Says: Is it my imagination or has Valverde become the Mark Cavendish of the mountains? Hey, whatever works.
2. Cadel Evans +0.07
Where he can win: The time trial... if he's still in a virtual tie for the lead. No longer the guy who puts two minutes into his rivals in the crono, in part because his closest rivals aren't as vulnerable. But if he, Valverde and Gesink are all roughly even at the start, it's Cuddles' Vuelta for the taking.
Where he can lose: Tomorrow. Sixteen percent grades are a bit past his tipping point. If Valverde doesn't apply the pressure, surely Gesink will.
Vueltabecco Says: Hm, close grand tour, time trial at the end, Cuddles worried about getting walloped by a Spaniard in the climbs... have we seen this movie before? Like, a lot?
3. Robert Gesink +0.18
Where he can win: The Sierra Nevada. The Avila stages are nowhere near as deadly as this weekend. Gesink had an extra gear today, and not for the first time. Given his vulnerability in the time trial, he needs to seize gold ASAP.
Where he can lose: Anywhere in the last three stages. He coughed up 40" to some of the top guys in the first crono, and the Avila stages feature some late descending... not his specialty.
Vueltabecco Says: Dude... the moment. Seize it.
4. Tom Danielson +0.51
Where he can win: Toledo ITT. If he's close and it's primarily Bobo and the Green Bullet ahead of him, Tommy can make his mark. Also, it's worth remembering that he has had a few signature wins on absurdly hard courses, like Brasstown Bald, or more pertinently the Granada stage of the '06 Vuelta. Can't rule it out. Update! That 2006 stage win? Over a minor little incline known as ... Alto de Monachil!
Where he can lose: Er, getting ground off the back of the pack over the next couple days. Or in the crazy finishes around Avila. Descending to the line... so not happening. But Tommy's been steady all through the race.
Vueltabecco Says: If this bubble doesn't burst soon, it never will.
5. Ivan Basso +0.53
Where he can win: Tomorrow. Basso is a fine survivor on the longest climbs. Tomorrow's finish is comparable to a Tour event in terms of distance and difficulty, if not some of the finer points. That's his forte. He was climbing just fine, thanks earlier this week.
Where he can lose: The ITT, for sure. He lost 40" to Cuddles and Valverde (!) the first time around. No way to spin that.
Vueltabecco Says: Italians have an 18-year losing streak at the Vuelta, during which time Spain has racked up three Giros. This will not stand!
6. Samuel Sanchez +1.03
Where he can win: Last three stages before Madrid. Seriously, he could run the table. He might not dislike the slight descent at the end of Sunday's stage either, though my bet is that he'll spend the next two days hanging on for dear life. Anyway, two road stage wins is 40" of bonuses, and he stomped the first ITT, so if he can recover the glory of 2007, he will have an excellent shot at the top step.
Where he can lose: Tomorrow. Steeeeep...
Vueltabecco Says: Someone please deliver him to the line tomorrow. Sammy descending for a shot the overall title in Avila... this will be the highlight of the entire year.
7. Damiano Cunego +2.13
Where he can win: Mendrisio. Il Piccolo Principe looks quite good, and not in the way Gavia thinks either (well, that too I suppose). But there's no place for him to claw back over 2'.
Where he can lose: Already happened, but in case you're not convinced, the last ITT.
Vueltabecco Says: Given the number of Spaniards who use the Giro to train for the Tour, you can't blame an Italian for using the Vuelta to train for the worlds.
8. Ezequiel Mosquera +2.14
Where he can win: The Sierra Nevada. Skillz-wise, he's Spain's answer to Gesink: all climbing, no crono. Of course, Holland's answer to Mosquera is 1.56 ahead on GC, so Zeke needs to disappear up the road.
Where he can lose: The Sierra Nevada. We know what his final crono will look like, so if he doesn't win the Vuelta this weekend, he's lost it.
Vueltabecco Says: Admit it, you have to sorta root for the only Old Skool continental guy on this list of luminaries.
****
My guess at a final podium:
- Gesink
- Valverde
- Sanchez
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Laugh, but this is a vote of VDS desire
Danielson
Evans (reality, not VDS)
Sanchez
No horn, watch for finger.
The Kool-Aid tastes good
Danielson could win this thing tomorrow. It’s high altitude climbing, which should favor him. He lives in altitude and trains in altitude. Garmin should form a train, get him to the bottom of last climb first, and then convince him it’s the local Mt. Evans race.
ok. back to work and reality.
Pass it on down
I’ll chug some of that, but of course, make mine fruit punch.
No horn, watch for finger.
Evil sideburns concurs
Tomorrow will be interesting. Sierra Nevada is at 9000 feet. We all know how well he does on Mt. Evans (the 14,000-foot Colorado mountain) and he can almost be viewed as a high-altitude specialist.
“It could be a great day for him. We’ll see.”
Source VeloNews
Oh just a wie bit of difference there though
and that is Mt Evans average grade is around 3%, it’s loooong just not steep, and for some reason they closed the rode after labor day already!
"On a personal level, I have never had admiration for him and I never will"
~AC about LA, me about Johan "drama queen" Bruyneel
big whoop
I live on a steep hill, and I suck at climbing.
ABRUZZIAM...uh oh
by Chris Fontecchio on Sep 11, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I was going to something snarky like, I also live at that altitude, yet I couldn't win that stage
"On a personal level, I have never had admiration for him and I never will"
~AC about LA, me about Johan "drama queen" Bruyneel
I love kool aid
check the velonews article. TD wanted them to push the pace more than they did today. Should be fun tommorrow. TD can pace himself up the steeps.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Llfo2iO_Eyw&feature=related <- 3min mark is where it gets good
For some reason im not feeling Vueltabecco's remarks
1. valv is not mountain god
2. cuddles can probly climb with these spaniards
3. gesink wont win, if he leads he’ll find a way to lose (gut feeling)
4. bubble boy will stay irrelevant, to the chagrin of some
5. that will stand
6. euskaltel wont organize, its hard to imagine, they hardly ever do
7. dont sleep on cunego’s chances, he might surprise (but wont win)
8. and yes u do have to root for zeke, nothing wrong there
OK
Disagreeing with Vueltabecco doesn’t automatically make you a suspect in any case resulting from any future crime that may befall the poor guy. But it does make you a person of interest.
ABRUZZIAM...uh oh
by Chris Fontecchio on Sep 11, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
What scares me is that you're missing his number 5 Chris.
Apparently the Italians are not allowed to win the Vuelta…mmm?
You see how calm Vaughters is? That’s because he’s really one giant seething ball of Evil inside. With like, extra Evil.
Great quick post Chris
My podium now:
1. Valverde
2. Gesink
3. Sanchez
I say that Bobo will take the lead tomorrow, but as Tin Tin did to him at Paris-Nice last year, Valverde and Sanchez will do to him here at the Vuelta. It will be close. It will be exciting up through the TT-probably the most exciting GC contest this year.
Probably?
It’s already twice as exciting as the Giro and five times cooler than the Tour. The only suspense at the Tour was whether Contador and Lance would get into a fight during a stage.
ABRUZZIAM...uh oh
by Chris Fontecchio on Sep 11, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay.
Short of several GC guys testing positive this is easily the most exciting Grand Tour this year.
I can see Danielson hanging in there. I wish Vaughters didn’t hype him here though.
Top five:
1. Valverde
2. Gesink
3. Sanchez
4. Evans
5. Danielson
ALL will be within a minute of each other in Madrid.
I am quite happy Bert didn't ride now
sure I would have loved to see him attack every mountain stage but the GC battle would already be over. This is the type of exciting race the Vuelta needs.
"On a personal level, I have never had admiration for him and I never will"
~AC about LA, me about Johan "drama queen" Bruyneel
Yeah but why was the Giro so exciting?
because of an idiotic cheater
"On a personal level, I have never had admiration for him and I never will"
~AC about LA, me about Johan "drama queen" Bruyneel
Really
it was two protagonists and some unbelievable scenery. So just the scenery.
ABRUZZIAM...uh oh
by Chris Fontecchio on Sep 11, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
and a full winter's worth of no-grand-tour...
… gives it a bit of an edge.
"Jens! is my favorite rider. I love watching him handing out plates of hot, steaming suffer!" - Mahatma Gandhi
Swooon
I heard Giro.
Also, I just saw someone put Cunego on the podium. And it wasn’t me. Gah, I hope he wins worlds. But I’m going to try not to notice that he’s on good form. Wouldn’t want to jinx the little man.
I only saw a bit
and they seemed to be climbing rather briskly. So, not as selective as the next two?
ABRUZZIAM...uh oh
by Chris Fontecchio on Sep 11, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
It reminded me of say,
the Pyrenees stages from last year- not quite tough enough to totally shake out the GC guys, other than Bobo and Zeke taking a few seconds. Valverde felt comfortable enough that he felt okay sitting in the back of the GC group, practically daring the others to try and attack. Samu was with him too. And as it turned pout only Zeke, Bobo and once for a brief moment Happy Puppy took a real dig.
Hopefully tomorrow’s final climb will be more, if not Angriluish, Inverno-like.
Not really decisive, too short with only short sections with very steep grades
and no one of the GC guys attacked in the final few km(except Gesink of course), Danielson tried with Mosquera and Gesink with about 10km left, but CdE had bout 4 guys left and reeled them in easily.
"On a personal level, I have never had admiration for him and I never will"
~AC about LA, me about Johan "drama queen" Bruyneel
Plus 2 more mountain stages
The next couple of days. That means keep some powder dry. You could kind of see that at the end. They pushed but they weren’t doing the mountain surges.
not decisive
They rode a pretty slow tempo all day, and weren’t all that agressive with the exception of Mosquera and Gesink. Caisse was contento to let Mosquera go, but they did work to limit the gap to Gesink – and mostly succeeded.
Saving it for the next two stages, I would think. Both are harder than today.
Danielson -- Update!
Just noticed that the stage he won to Granada in 2006 featured a decisive final climb over… wait for it…
Alto de Monachil.
ABRUZZIAM...uh oh
by Chris Fontecchio on Sep 11, 2009 4:40 PM EDT reply actions
as opposed to the Alto de Monchichi Monchichi
"Jens! is my favorite rider. I love watching him handing out plates of hot, steaming suffer!" - Mahatma Gandhi
Holy heck this race is insane
Six riders within 63 seconds of the lead.
Think about it.
Six Riders. 1:03.
If you have 2 riders leading and 63 seconds apart at le Tour, you’re pretty much on the edge of your seat, as long as it’s not Contador #1 and Schleck #2 going into a Stage 20 time trial.
Plus, the rest of the jerseys are still very much in the air. Of course I liked the jersey puntos race much better when Farrar was still in it, but whatever, it’s his third grand tour of the season.
Wenatchee Wonder FTW
by dees ees en drama on Sep 11, 2009 6:41 PM EDT reply actions
But he only finished one of those...
Still it is impressive for not having ridden one before this year
by Vlaanderen90 on Sep 11, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Why exactly
did he go home? Worlds? Or just fried?
ABRUZZIAM...uh oh
by Chris Fontecchio on Sep 11, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions
His job of spreading evil aroud Spain was completed
time for him to focus on spreading it in Switzerland.
"On a personal level, I have never had admiration for him and I never will"
~AC about LA, me about Johan "drama queen" Bruyneel
I thought he'd take a swing at the points competition
He’s only, what, seven point behind Greipel? For a chance to win a GT jersey?
It’s not like Worlds is a priority to him.
Wenatchee Wonder FTW
by dees ees en drama on Sep 12, 2009 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Or rather, I should say
I didn’t think it was a priority to him.
Wenatchee Wonder FTW
by dees ees en drama on Sep 12, 2009 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Dood, the day... seize it.
Ha!
Looking forward to watching Gesink go after it over the next two stages. Not sure he can win the overall, but it should be fun to watch him try. Still not noticing the rider in fourth. Just don’t want to be responsible for that kind of jinx ;-)
Interesting race, this Vuelta. We are amused.
4th place you say?
What is this 4th place you mention? Certainly not at the Vuelta. I remember a discussion about there not even being a 4th place at the Vuelta, so there is no one to even notice in that position because that position doesn’t exist.
No horn, watch for finger.
It would be interesting to see my hometown team make the podium
But Tom Danielson does not seem to have a real chance of gaining time on his rivals. Climbing Mount Evans does not compare to climbing Sierra Nevada during La Vuelta.
Valverde has the team to defend his lead. All he needs to do is survive the ITT. He’s shown he can.
Evans knows how to hang in there.
Sanchez seems to be recovering from his crash and will gain time on his rivals during the ITT.
Gesink will have to gain a substantial lead against Evans and Sanchez to cover his losses ahead of the ITT. Not sure he can.
Basso needs longer stages with no attacks from explosive climbers like Gesink. I do not see that happening.
My final GC:
1. Valverde
2. Evans
3. Sanchez
4. Gesink
5. Basso
6. Mosquera
7. Cunego
Some people are born to be spectators, some people are born to make a spectacle and some are born to be mere fans.
They should ban you from Boulder for speaking such words.
Holy shit, and you just threw TD off the list entirely.
I hope they don’t figure out who you are there in Boulder.
But seriously, Danielson can climb, period. Whether it’s high altitude or just stupid steep, Mt. Evans or Monachil. If he has good form and stays well, he will be there and possibly win. Tomorrow will tell more, but damn he’s looking good.
And here’s hoping Valverde blows a gasket or something.
No horn, watch for finger.
Boulder will be rioting over other things tonight
seeing the Buffs are getting blown out against freakin Toledo, this after an embarrassing loss to mother f**king CSU. Errrrrrrrrrarghhhhhhhpfffffffff….
"On a personal level, I have never had admiration for him and I never will"
~AC about LA, me about Johan "drama queen" Bruyneel
I don't really care what happens...
especially, if Cunego stays committed to the Veulta and finishes with a top 10. Then wins in Mendrisio.
But the way I see Worlds is; he could be the odds on favorite and still lose. To drop out of the Veulta (where he was going to get top 10) to get second at Worlds, again, would suck.
Vuelta/Worlds double?
I wonder if, since the Vuelta moved to September, has anyone ever done a Vuelta/Worlds double? I never thought about it. Kinda doubt it but…anyone?
Well in 1996, 1998, and 1999, the winners of the Vuelta won the Time Trial World Championship
Those riders being Alex Zulle (’96), Abraham Olano in ’98, and Jan Ullrich in ’99. As far as the Road Race goes, the closest somebody has come to the double with both being in the fall is is Olano with coming in second overall in ’95 Vuelta to Jalabert when he took every jersey and then winning the Road Race Worlds in Duitama, Colombia.
So to answer your question, nobody has won both the Vuelta and the Road Race Worlds in a single fall
by Vlaanderen90 on Sep 12, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions
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