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Greipel's Greatest Day?

Today Andre Greipel lost a race, and may have sealed the finest accomplishment of his career: the Vuelta points competition. At this juncture, adding today's 16 points, the Columbian (not Colombian) sprinter has a comfy 40-point lead on fellow finisher Danny Bennati, and 41 on maillo oro Alejandro Valverde. Now, Valverde has a good 50 points in the offing over the next two stages, but for reasons discussed earlier (last time I had a free second to post, amidst even more travels), Valv isn't likely to get maximum points either day, and would need to finish first and second to take the lead. That unlikely scenario still leaves him dead meat for the final sprint to Madrid, where Greipel will salt away his points victory. And all this after being docked 25 points for a late gruppetto finish...

So is the Green Jersey his greatest ever accomplishment? Not according to Cycling Quotient (or presumably the Pro Tour) -- that would be his win in the Tour Down Under in 2008. Subjectively speaking, though, this would be tops in my book. His biggest one-day win is the Philadelphia International Classic, and the TdU is his only stage race GC victory of note; after that it's all stage wins. So, is the Vuelta points jersey > the TdU yellow? When it comes with four stage wins, I say yes. The Vuelta is the biggest stage he's ever performed on with any success, and it's not his fault that the Vuelta has mountains while the TdU does not. It's a Grand Tour, and he's been terrific.

Next, is Greipel the sprinters' Levi Leipheimer? He's one of the best at what he does, but he chooses to live in the shadow of a teammate who is the undisputed #1. [In Cavendish's book, it's clear that this partnership was anything but at first, but at this stage Greipel seems to have accepted the prevailing order in an atmosphere of mutual respect.] Last I checked he isn't joining the HTC exodus, so the partnership goes on. Foolish? Not even close. While we can chide Leipheimer for not racing for himself, it's a little harder in Greipel's case. It's very, very hard to picture him beating Cav head2head -- the record is a scant 6-2, with the two being a Giro stage last year as the teammates finished together, and a Rhineland-Pfalz stage from 2006. But nobody beats Cav, and Greipel is a human, so there you go.

Meanwhile, while swapping leadership with Cavendish, Greipel has taken his career light years beyond where it was. With Wiesenhof and T-Mobile, the promising sprinter managed five minor wins in three seasons. Since Stapleton brought the team to America, Greipel has won 15 and 18 times (counting stages and classifications) in 2008 and 2009 to date. He ranks 16th in the world this year (about to move up to 13th maybe?), third on his team and second among his countrymen (to quasi-German Haussler). In short, he's an elite pro now. On his own he might aim a little higher, but not much. All that's missing from his resume is a second grand tour, but Cav will be owning France for a while, and Greipel's chances in the Giro would be uncertain, given the large stable of local sprinters. I suspect he feels he's better off being the number two guy piloting the world's number one team than the number one guy piloting a far lesser outfit. Nobody can say for sure, since we don't get to see him try his luck in July on his own, but the results we can see tell a very clear, very successful story.

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Well written, clear... lucid even...

… what have you done with Chris?

"Jens! is my favorite rider. I love watching him handing out plates of hot, steaming suffer!" - Mahatma Gandhi

by crashdan on Sep 16, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions  

No no no, Chris usually writes quite well

it’s that crashdan fellow who clearly never took English very seriously in school.

"On a personal level, I have never had admiration for him and I never will"
~AC about LA, me about Johan "drama queen" Bruyneel

by Phil H. on Sep 16, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not surprising

what with all that energy he spent in latin-class.

by Jens on Sep 16, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree he should stay at Columbia

for a bit there I wanted him to to leave for another team, but if he gets one GT to do his own thing in he should stay. Columbia is by far the best team for a sprinter and if he leaves he might be able to do the Tour but wouldn’t be winning as much(see Ciolek).

"On a personal level, I have never had admiration for him and I never will"
~AC about LA, me about Johan "drama queen" Bruyneel

by Phil H. on Sep 16, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Veulta points jersey is definitely better than TdU.

The competition is greater at the current Veulta than his TdU win. There were fast guys that year at TdU but at the Veulta, he’s beating Bennati, Ciolek, Weylandt. Oh yeah, and this guy called Tom Boonen, but he’s not much of a sprinter, so I guess he doesn’t really count.

by brunopitton on Sep 16, 2009 4:17 PM EDT reply actions  

The only way I can see a power struggle at Columbia is if Cavendish's top speed starts to drop in the coming years...

or new signing Leigh Howard or any new sprinter with a track background comes in and matches Cav’s speed. Greipel always seems comfortable to play second fiddle but it seems unfair for him to not even get to race the TdF when Renshaw is the main leadout man. If nothing, they will still get a boat load of wins next year from the sprints and Greipel will still be riding the Vuelta and not too many races with Cav.

A Vuelta jersey is def. better than a TDU yellow just because of the competition and well how sprint friendly down under is.

by Vlaanderen90 on Sep 16, 2009 4:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Two things:

1. I must have missed the discussion of the new UCI rule that penalizes points classification contenders the equivalent of the stage winner’s points when the grupetto finishes out of the time limit but are allowed to continue in the race by officials. After reading the cyclingnews article about it I realized what a huge effect this will have on the strategy teams apply in stage races with mountain stages. Imagine if the teammates of Greipel had pushed harder and left part of the whiners in the grupetto behind. Many more riders could be disqualified.

2. Cavendish can not race every race on the calendar. It is impossible. Greipel is smart to stay at Columbia for now. He gets Cav’s leftovers which isn’t too bad. Never know, Cav may get hurt or ill and Greipel will then be the tour sprinter for Columbia. Hey. It happens.

by ZoeRochelle on Sep 16, 2009 5:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Gruppetto thing

I have a feeling this is one of those matters subject to on-road agreements

ABRUZZIAM...uh oh

by Chris Fontecchio on Sep 16, 2009 5:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

The time-cut rule, if I understand it right, is BS

it’s 30 minutes, at least it was for that stage. 30 minutes for that tough a stage? Kenny would have missed the time-cut in about 8 of the Vuelta stages by now.

"On a personal level, I have never had admiration for him and I never will"
~AC about LA, me about Johan "drama queen" Bruyneel

by Phil H. on Sep 16, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

No other team

is even half seriously putting together a team around a sprinter right now. It’s pretty pointless because Cav’s so far ahead of the rest. The best he might get somewhere else is like Garmin do, with one or two dedicated supporters, plus anyone else on the team who can spare a bit of effort on that particular day. With Columbia he gets the whole train to himself from time to time, and there’s always the chance that Cav will get sick or injured just before a big race.

by Monty. on Sep 16, 2009 5:30 PM EDT reply actions  

True but Greipel never races with Cav...Martin should not be in the lead-out train...

I think that his TDF train would be something like Renshaw, Eisel, Grabsch, Goss, Roulston, and Rogers (because he isn’t really doing anything else too well)

by Vlaanderen90 on Sep 16, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Martin shouldn't be a lead out trainster but

Lokvist and Kirchen should? It seemed like everyone was part of the train in one way or another this year at the Tour.

by brunopitton on Sep 16, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know and given that Martin was in the white jersey he should have been allowed to run his own race...

Stapleton has said that nobody can beat Contador so I think he might have went with the why even try for G.C. if we can’t beat him…That is probably why Kirchen and Lokvist left, they don’t want to be in the train. If they have a good shot at getting a place on the G.C. they should be allowed to and not winding up the train the day before a mountain stage

by Vlaanderen90 on Sep 17, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

There were stories about a big falling out over the stage that Greipel won

Greipel felt he won it fair and square in a head to head with Cav, although I’ve not heard anything about why he reckons it’s a good thing for the leadout man to be racing the main sprinter instead of setting him up. Funnily enough that came to mind when I watched Cav shoot past Mark Renshaw on the Champs Elysees this year. He clearly decided that it caused less hassle and problems if he just took the win himself.

by Monty. on Sep 18, 2009 5:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Rogers ;)

"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'

by Seahorse on Sep 16, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's an interesting one.

I think it makes the most sense for him to stay put for now. He gets use of the lead-out train set up for Cav, which is pretty much flawless, and he’s winning races left right and centre, basically at any stage race Cav doesn’t ride.

I suppose it’s a decision for him to leave, and maybe start finishing second, third, fourth to Cav and others at the Tour and other big races, or stay where he is and carry on winning races non stop – I think it comes down to whether he honestly thinks he can beat Cav. I’d say the fact that he’s not left yet suggests not.
Even if he could he’d need someone to dedicate their GT teams to him like Columbia do to him and Cav, and I don’t think anyone’s willing to do that, because they don’t think they can really compete. And even if they were willing to do it there’s no saying they’ll actually manage to get anywhere near the efficiency of the Columbia train.

Also; I’d agree that this is a bigger win than the TDU, definitely.

by chapeaux! on Sep 16, 2009 5:46 PM EDT reply actions  

spot on, really

What’s interesting is that the Columbia train’s so well-drilled that it kind of doesn’t matter who they have in it & where they are, they can produce results for their sprinter (I’m thinking of the sight of Martin/Lovkvist/Kirchen/Monfort/Dockx winding it up for EBH today, who probably didn’t even need it). But how much of that’s actually down to the personnel involved, & whether they can reproduce it next year with different riders remains to be seen. I actually think they probably can.

by civetta on Sep 16, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well the thing is they better not force new guys like P. Velits, Van Garderen and other G.C. oriented guys all the time

like they did this year because that would be detrimental to their upbringing. They will probably have a good train with the likes of Renshaw, Roulston, Goss, Grabsch (somebody has to wind it up), Eisel, Leigh Howard, and the like. They just need to kind of put the train guys with the train guys and use any guys who might want to try for the G.C. sparingly

by Vlaanderen90 on Sep 16, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't get the feeling that Colombia are serious about the GT GCs

Bob Stapleton doesn’t do “glorious fourths” so I agree with the comment that he is not trying. Best (clean(ish)) stage races in the world are Contador, Schlecklet, maybe Evans, maybe Menchov – but no-one else is close. So put your chips into winning day to day, and leave it at that.

However – one thought does occur: what would happen if the Yellow Machine accidentally acquired Don Qixote? Somehow, I think DQ’s “ride by numbers” style would match Aitchteesee perfectly, and combine that with a completely disciplined team approach to putting the hurt to others, might produce an interesting result. Hard men to protect DQ up the climbs, mean trains to cause echelon splits (no-one could risk dozing on the flat if Columbia had a GC threat), and DQ’s own ability in the time trial. That could (just) spell the end of the Accountant’s dominance…

by addict on Sep 17, 2009 6:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think they will all time.

My point was more that they’re so well-drilled practically any of them can do it no matter which race they’re in. I actually wonder if Bob S isn’t being slightly disingenuous when it comes to GC GTs too. I don’t think he thinks they can do much right now, but there does have to be something in there for, say, Tony Martin at some point somewhere.

by civetta on Sep 17, 2009 7:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

This post exemplifies a lot of what I love about PdC...

…really insightful and interesting Chris, thank you.

You see how calm Vaughters is? That’s because he’s really one giant seething ball of Evil inside. With like, extra Evil.

by Ed K on Sep 16, 2009 6:53 PM EDT reply actions  

Er... Danny?

Yes, I do think it makes tons of sense to be the second sprinter at Columbia. They know how to set up a sprint, and a good lead-out is a huge advantage for any sprinter. Maybe even more important than the sprinter, really.

But seriously, Danny?!

by Jen See on Sep 16, 2009 7:06 PM EDT reply actions  

VDS, Baby!

"…I saw bloody Cavendish coming, really fast…"
HH

by ELVISGOAT on Sep 16, 2009 9:24 PM EDT reply actions  

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