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Armstrong's Bio Passport Critic Speaks

First of all, some may see this as a dead horse...to you, I apologize.  However, this seems to be a fairly rational rehashing of said dead horse. In short, Velocity nation interviews the scientist at the root of the recent allegations.

 

More on the flip

Star-divide

Velocity nation has followed up on their original post regarding LA's blood values.  Becuase there were unable to get anyone to speak on the record regarding the allegations (shocking I know), they went straight to the source, Jaekob Moerkeberg.  A couple interesting snippets...

First of all...why did he comment:

There was a journalist from Denmark’s Radio that approached me, called me last Tuesday. He asked if I had seen the results posted on Armstrong's website, and I had. Then he asked me how I interpreted the data, and I told him what I saw, and he asked me if I was willing to say that on television.

and what are his qualifications?

I'm an exercise physiologist, Copenhagen University graduating 2006, and I have just written up my PhD and submitted it one week ago, the PhD is about detecting autologous blood transfusions in an anti-doping context.

...and has published with Damsgaard and Ashenden.

Some details on his concerns:

I am not saying these values are suspicious because they are high. That is the whole point. I am talking about a lack of relative low values for that specific athlete, which you would expect from a physiological point of view at the end of the Tour.

and my personal favourite comment (my emphasis)...

...when you as an athlete choose by yourself to publish your values - then it's free for people to comment on them. This was his own decision. If you're not ready for that scrutiny, you shouldn't publish your values. If a journalist comes to me, it's because I've done work in this area, and want my opinion as a scientist. If he has got a problem with people commenting on his values, he shouldn't have chosen to publish them. When he does that, it's an open forum, it's public, and if something looks strange it would be wrong for me not to say that, when I was asked. If I didn’t say his values looked suspicious, I would dismiss the scientific literature, which I have based my comments on.

There is much more there as well, including comments regarding expected patterns in the presence of blood doping and his thoughts on the bio-passort...go check it out. It's nice to see that the younger generation of scientists, as well as the younger generation of cyclists (see Kohl, Bernard) seem to be leaving omerta behind.  It will be interesting to see what reprocussion result from this incident.

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Thanks for the link

Imagine how easy . Finding the source. asking him to expand and explain. Publish full interview instead of juicy snippets. Why hasn’t big media done this?

Hope to see an equally serious response from LA or some other scientists.

by Jens on Sep 8, 2009 1:54 PM EDT reply actions  

+1

Exactly. The problem is the glee with which so many journalists will jump on any sentence at the expense of the correct context or the complete story.

Moo

by Willj on Sep 8, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

How many other factors can contribute to maintaining one's levels?

If we go by the assumption that autologous blood transfusions aren’t taking place, can the levels be maintained some other way? Does exercise physiology as a science know enough about differences in individual physiology to know if it’s possible that there are exceptions to the norm? This science of physiology is really cool stuff but very hard to draw conclusions I think.

As far as the claim that younger this-and-that (scientists and cyclists) seem to be leaving omerta behind… bullshit.

No horn, watch for finger.

by sminer on Sep 8, 2009 2:57 PM EDT reply actions  

BS might be a bit harsh but yeah

we should be careful about the younger = purer assumption. That is just setting yourself up for disappointment.

by Jens on Sep 8, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

fair enough

I just wanted to give props to the few that are showing signs of openness.

"It looks like talking, but it’s just words that comes out"
~ Andy Schleck

by Hons on Sep 8, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's what I thought...

I do think Khol deserves credit for laying it all out there, no matter what his motives may be.

No horn, watch for finger.

by sminer on Sep 8, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the link!

sniped from the article

AS: Damsgaard says this is just speculative, he hasn’t criticized this on specific points. How do you view his statement?

JM: I really don’t want to comment on that.

Damsgaard and Jacob M. used to work together, no? Really puts clouds on the internal testing done by Damsgaard.

AS: Damsgaard also talked about the rights of the cyclist. Do you think it’s correct for us to discuss this at all? The blood passport does allow for a lot of speculation, and the rider may not have sufficient recourse…

JM: I would like to emphasize that the passport does NOT allow for a lot of speculation, because the values are NOT publicized. I think there is a good reason for that and in my opinion that is the way it should be. Another thing is, when you as an athlete choose by yourself to publish your values – then it’s free for people to comment on them. This was his own decision. If you’re not ready for that scrutiny, you shouldn’t publish your values. If a journalist comes to me, it’s because I’ve done work in this area, and want my opinion as a scientist. If he has got a problem with people commenting on his values, he shouldn’t have chosen to publish them. When he does that, it’s an open forum, it’s public, and if something looks strange it would be wrong for me not to say that, when I was asked. If I didn’t say his values looked suspicious, I would dismiss the scientific literature, which I have based my comments on.

Funny:
AS: Have you been contacted by any members of the US media?

JM: The Associated Press contacted me.

(Chris/Jens/editor(s)) cut it down if I posted too much from the article)

by Bruce Suomi on Sep 8, 2009 5:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Hmm

It’s probably a bit much to quote from the Velocity kids, who aren’t making huge cash off this gig. But I’m cool with leaving it up. We can’t edit posts anyway, just delete them. Silly software thingy.

by Jen See on Sep 8, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

'the Velocity kids'

have quietly gone about getting some of the most interesting and informative interviews in the sport.

Chapeau bas.

by Drongo on Sep 9, 2009 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

snark detected

but no. He’s a scientist. he has already been awarded his PhD.

"It looks like talking, but it’s just words that comes out"
~ Andy Schleck

by Hons on Sep 8, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Leading edge

Actually there is an argument, depending on the nature of the PhD program that he just completed, that he is one of the leading experts in the field.

"Age and treachery will overcome youth and skill" - Fausto Coppi

by muk on Sep 8, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know, I know...

But has he been awarded his PhD though? Says above he submitted his thesis one week ago. If that’s case, he’s surely still got to defend it, assuming his reviewers think it’s defensible. Unlikely though it seems, it could still be referred… ;-)

by civetta on Sep 9, 2009 4:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yep, don't why Hons thought he already got his PhD

He’s an exercise physiologists who studied blood transfusions for a year or two, not exactly an experienced haematologist, is he?

by tedvdw on Sep 9, 2009 4:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

fair enough

I miss read that section, he has not been awarded his PhD yet.

My point was simply that as a scientist who has studied detecting autologous blood transfusions in an anti-doping context for ~3 years, he qualifies as more of an expert than most.

"It looks like talking, but it’s just words that comes out"
~ Andy Schleck

by Hons on Sep 9, 2009 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

On top of that he is not in the paid employment with (or receiving free gifts from ) anyone; as evidenced by his willingness to speak out when no one else will.

"Age and treachery will overcome youth and skill" - Fausto Coppi

by muk on Sep 9, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

great post

I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it

by plinytheelder on Sep 8, 2009 5:45 PM EDT reply actions  

That was some good interview right there.

Agree with Jens, why was that too hard for VeloNews? Sheesh, call the dude up and ask him the questions.

Well done by the Velocity boys.

by Jen See on Sep 8, 2009 7:03 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm going to just say they got stopped by John Wilcockson

just so I can say that VeloNews got cock blocked……hehehehehehehe….

"On a personal level, I have never had admiration for him and I never will"
~AC about LA, me about Johan "drama queen" Bruyneel

by Phil H. on Sep 8, 2009 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Their 2007 study on the TdF riders

was done with how many riders? 7? 12?
Do they really understand the concept of statistically significant sample?
They should.

Your bike doesn't want to crash so relax and let it roll!!!

by perezbike on Sep 10, 2009 11:20 PM EDT reply actions  

12 can be enough, depending on the standard deviation of the measurements,

provided your sample is drawn truly randomly from the population concerned. And of course, the results then apply TO THAT POPULATION, not to “any other group of riders,” unless group #2 can be presumed equivalent to group #1.

by JFS_PGH on Sep 11, 2009 7:17 PM EDT reply actions  

Sorry but that is pretty misleading. The reality of of the situation is that ..

drug companies and homeopathic entrepreneurs have been coming out for decades with small studies that show the effectiveness of some new drug or herb. An overwhelming number of times when those drugs are placed in large scale controlled tests they discover that the smaller studies were incorrect and reverse their findings. Its the “large” part of the large scale studies that give the study its accuracy. The margin of error in every statistical calculation is mathematically derived from the quantity of data point.

Furthermore, in this specific case the top 10 climbers on the planet have a highly unusual physiology that allows them to race up huge mountains day after day. So in this specific study it is far more likely that those people that constitute the smallest fraction of the population on earth would almost never be included in a study of 12 !

by thevaro on Sep 12, 2009 1:57 AM EDT reply actions  

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