Worlds 2010: It ain't a sprinterfest mate!
Wade Wallace has done a nice job again and has taken a ride on the 2010 world championships road racing course. He has it edited on his site. You can check it on www.cyclingtipsblog.com .
I think it will be for climbers who have a decent fast finish. We are too far from October but I will put my reputation as runner up on the Johan gnome Vuelta contest (Pequeño Concurso) on the line and bet on some names:
Gesink, the Green Bullet (will he be racing by then?), Cunego, Gerrans just to stay with the stronger teams.
What do you think? Can the manx express surprise us and make it?
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Looking at the course
I think it could break up. The biggest question is, with so much flat space between the hills each lap (10-11km) and the 5km downhill/flat to the finish, how great is a smaller break’s ability to actually consolidate in the final laps? I think that the last 8km are going to be absolutely spectacular as a small group tries to hold off a larger charging pack.
Also, the emphasis is really going to be on the first climb
The second one (400m at 10%) isn’t long enough to really spit a sprinter off the back as they can drift back and the 5km to the finish gives them time to get back on terms and at the head of affairs.
by Douglas Ansel on Jan 17, 2010 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
Just watched the vid
Not sure yet. I think the hills are short enough not to make too many casualties. As always, I guess it depends a lot on the style of racing.
I'm calling it now
Ivan Quaranta won’t win this.
Other than that I think all of todays top sprinters can make it to the finishing sprint. It’s by no means given though, as tedvdw says it will depend a lot on how the race is run.
I agree
Yes, Gerrans, Cunego, Valverde can distance guys like Cav and Greipel over the first hill. Can they stick anything to the finish? That’s a longer shot…
by Douglas Ansel on Jan 17, 2010 6:37 PM EST up reply actions
Out of a much smaller group
which was impossible to get organized. It all depends on how hard they are raced in the earlier laps.
I’m going to call either Thor or EBH depending on how hard it’s raced.
by Douglas Ansel on Jan 18, 2010 8:38 AM EST up reply actions
I'm going to venture to say...
That if there was another team (in addition to denmark) with 2 riders in that group, Ballan would have been chased down. It was more the dynamics of the group that got them, IMHO
by Douglas Ansel on Jan 18, 2010 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe this will be the year that Cancellara can double up.
I like the idea of a rider like Fabian or Gilbert giving the peloton everything they can handle for 4 – 5 kms, a national team being able to control the race like a trade team seems unlikely to me.
"At the Tour of California this year I did a wheel change for Christian Vande Velde when he was in the break on the final day. Phil Liggett said on TV that it was the fastest wheel change he'd ever seen. That was pretty cool. That night Christian got me a beer and we watched Spaceballs in the RV." - Daimeon Shanks, Garmin Mechanic from Pez interview.
Depends on the team...
If they are all working for an unquestioned leader then they can bring back a lot of moves.
by Vlaanderen90 on Jan 17, 2010 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
I think a good team can make or break it for sure.
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
I've entertained that though, I must admit
(yeah, I can imagine everyone’s surprise)
Good thing Flatbagger’s going to be there… if Tony does the double, I might need a paramedic…
and they will go through the hills
11 times… depending on the rhythm that can hurt a lot.
Your bike doesn't want to crash so relax and let it roll!!!
So much speculation
When does Het Niewsblad start again? Where’s that timer…
by Douglas Ansel on Jan 17, 2010 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
I greatly dissagree with perezbike
After watching the vid. I see no possible way any rider with the riding strengths Cunego has could possibly win.
The Don V. could only do it if he got in a break with riders who cannot match his finishing sprint, but see no way for this to likely happen.
In reality, he’ll be supporting Freire most likely; if he even goes.
Same for Gilbert.
I dig the guy, but Boonan is far better suited for this race then he is.
Nope, I’m pretty sure this will come down to those who typically only focus on the Spring Classics.
I’d speculate those in contention at Gent-Wevelgem this year would be ideal for this Worlds course providing they get off the beach and back on their bike in early August.
Early August
Isn’t that when EBH, the guy who won G-W, was kicking everyones ass in 2009?
(yes I know G-W 2009 was shorter)
Agreed...There might not be any pure sprinters left but this looks tailored-made for a lot of the northern classics riders...
Boonen in particular. The way that I see it is like ’05 Madrid, a group of major names will try to make a last lap break and then get caught before the line, leaving anybody with good kick of speed a chance to win. Should be nice to watch though.
by Vlaanderen90 on Jan 18, 2010 2:14 AM EST up reply actions
So you kind of agree with me
I believe a Boonen or Thor like rider can make it, but I am not putting them in the pure sprinter category as Cav or Petachi. Maybe I went a little bit to the other side with Cunego but I still believe it will be a classic rider.
I can’t really think of a strong British team (the brits will come up with strong arguments on that, but I will still think they are not on the same level of the top countries).
And Cancellara….well….Spartacus is awesome so….what to say about that?
Your bike doesn't want to crash so relax and let it roll!!!
Petachi may have nothng else to do but to train specifically for the worlds.
He is much more capable then Cav right now in things like this and it seems the UCI is making his schedule quite light for this entire year.
I would say RVV or even Amstel
more than GW. Even the extended, director’s cut GW.
If I read the profile right, Geelong has 1.1 km at 9% followed quickly by 500 m of 10%. Do that 11 times, and guys like Devolder, Gilbert, Kroon, Ivanov will form a small group and not come back. And even Cunego if he attaches to a group with those guys and contains the kamikaze attack.
I don’t see a sprint of more than six riders.
by Mr 60 Percent on Jan 19, 2010 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
I just wouldn't write off Cavendish
Milan San Remo wouldn’t be classed as a complete sprinter fest either and he surprised everyone by winning that. I think Cavendish’s success will depend completely on his team. He was babysat to the line in MSR last year by his whole team. The Columbia team then was probably stronger than the British team will be at the Worlds.
Cavendish has made this race a season goal. Last year he won MSR without even announcing it as a season goal, even though it obviously was privately. But the fact that he has come out and said he wants to win the Rainbow jersey this year, then he (and his backup staff) obviously know that he can win it. Plenty of the British team will have been riding together at Team Sky all year putting the likes of Boassan Hagen and Henderson into winning positions. If they can all work together Cavendish, I think he can do it.
Obviously the hills will pose a problem for the Manxman, but that’s what we all that about the Cipressa and th Poggio last year. I’ve no doubt that he will be doing specific training to get used to this type of course and that he will be uber prepared.
http://www.irishpeloton.com/
You'd be a fool to write him off... the British team weren't great at Mendrisio though
… and who will act as Renshaw?
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Ben swift?
He’s pretty fast and young enough not to worry about never getting a chance again
by Douglas Ansel on Jan 18, 2010 8:39 AM EST up reply actions
And climbs decently too
So if Cav is there, I’m pretty sure Swift will be as well
by Douglas Ansel on Jan 18, 2010 8:40 AM EST up reply actions
It's the pilot thing that counts I think,
but yesterday suggests he’s a good candidate ;)
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Millar and Hammond are there if you're after experience
Maybe Jeremy Hunt too
If Renshaw won the Rainbow jersey. . . .
Who would lead out Cavendish? The Aussies will be highly motivated to win on home soil, regardless of trade teams they belong on.
"At the Tour of California this year I did a wheel change for Christian Vande Velde when he was in the break on the final day. Phil Liggett said on TV that it was the fastest wheel change he'd ever seen. That was pretty cool. That night Christian got me a beer and we watched Spaceballs in the RV." - Daimeon Shanks, Garmin Mechanic from Pez interview.
Oooh.. I love your way of thinking..
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Perezbike my friend...
I love the post and I tried to ignore it but I can’t… we don’t say/use ain’t… we really really don’t. I know many think our English is mangled, but we pick and choose our Americanisms…
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Um... I do
… or I did, ’cause I suspect that I will now be a little self-conscious about it, LOL…
Surely it isn’t quite the same when delivered in our accent? (not that I have an accent, of course ;-) …)
WTF... I don't know what to say
So i should correct this to ‘not popular usage’? No, don’t tell me.
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
OK, closer inspection
Reveals that I do not use it often. We can discount the instance where I’m quoting a Meatloaf song title, and when I use the phrase “Ain’t that the truth”. Examine the other seven examples, and it’s pretty clear that I tend to use it purposefully, to tweak the tone of my statements (if you know what I mean. I’m finding it hard to express… but hey – you’re the English teacher, I’m sure you know what I mean…)
Hey, your English is better than mine.. but yes I know what you mean
and your closer reflection is a comfort ;) I still don’t think it is part of everyday colloquail usage… except as a part of Aboriginal English, where it often has an ‘h’ in front of it.
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Spot the spelling mistake :(
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
No, you're right
It’s not really an integral part of the lingo (or indeed part of the pheasant family of birds ;-) …)
Aussie friends
It was not my intention to “offend” you, but my english is what I learn from people whom I connect to. The only austrialians I know are you guys, all others are cyclists or surfers but they don’t count because I do not talk to them. hehehe. So mate was the only Australian word that I included on purpose, the rest is just past learning.
Having said that I will edit if you teach me something more appropriate, but to do that I want something that is really really local slang, even if you change the whole tittle. Hehehe.
Your bike doesn't want to crash so relax and let it roll!!!
Nah, don't change the title, mate :-)
But just incidentally, the most appropriate phrase that I can think of would be (listening, sminer?):
“Sprinters have got Buckley’s, mate”.
Obviously it’s way too obscure. Every Aussie would understand what it meant… but I’d be surprised if anyone else did ;-)
Too easy :)
What with access to Neighbours, Home and Away and/or a pint or two in Earls Court….(even with the double meaning).
By the by, it reminds me of a time I was involved in interviewing an Australian candidate for a job and in an inspired response to a meaningless question on his experience in blah blah blah he refreshingly answered “Buckleys, mate”. When we stopped laughing he so got hired!
No Perez! not even vaguely offended...
Lou’s suggestion is however, perfect. Perhaps later in the week, it will be a good headline for the TDU.
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
But it ain't good is cool..
And thinks the one is superdupecool and a cowboy of course
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
Lost Frinking... I'm lost...
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
I like Edvald for this
but off course he is the next cannibal. It would not generate a lot of discussion.
Your bike doesn't want to crash so relax and let it roll!!!
Reminds me a little of the Athens Olympics course
Which also had one climb gaining 100 m of elevation back-to-back with one miniclimb, then mostly flat km around the finish. The Geelong climb is steeper than Athens, but there’s probably more flat on this course.
It helped that it was a gazillion degrees outside when Bettini, Paulinho, and then Merckx got away for good on the second-to-last lap in Athens. That made the chasing field really small.
Someone mentioned Madrid 05, but everything there was 2-3 percent and no real elevation gain. Both of the little climbs in Geelong are better for a selective selection.
Bottom line is that I think the bunch sprint will be 20-30 seconds behind a few guys. Amstel contenders just as likely as Ronde guys to make the break.

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