FanPost

Contador and Errors

 

A lot of people have opinions on Contador's innocence or guilt.  The facts should be the most important part on judging whether Contador is guilty or not.  But for now, the facts and what they mean are unknown.  So how do we proceed as fans posting on a cycling blog?

 

I would like to approach the topic from a different angle. When you have variables in a case like this, you have 4 possible outcomes.  My table very simplistically illustrates these outcomes.


 

Contador Gets Punished

Contador Doesn’t Get Punished

Contador Doped

 Justice Served!

Oops 1

Contador Didn’t Dope

Oops 2

The process works!

"Justice Served" and "The Process Works" are the way the anti-doping process should work (except for reputations getting trashed, I left that part out of the discussion).  The Oops are the problem.  This is a pretty common chart and a pretty common question.

 

The Oops are when you are wrong. (Not you, the royal you.)  So which Oops would you rather commit?  And how many Oops 1 would you rather make before you commit an Oops 2?  

 

To me, I'd rather makes lots of Oops 1 before making an Oops 2.  Dopers will get caught eventually.  And if they get away with it, they get away with it.  It's just a sport; the world goes on. 

 

The point of my post is not to argue that we should let Contador off the hook because he has a clever story or because the evidence is 40 times less than what it should be.  It's just to raise the question in your mind how you weigh an Oops 1 vs. an Oops 2. And to think about how the UCI and WADA weigh the errors against each other.   

 

There's no right answer.  I have no idea whether Contador is guilty.  

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