Phinney All-In For Classics?

Over at CN, Daniel Benson has a scoop about BMC's Taylor Phinney contemplating dropping track to focus fully on the classics, and whatever else his new squad BMC has in store for him. Now, personally I have no knowledge of (or interest in) track, so when he says that the fitness peaks for track and the classics are hard to line up, I'm not entirely sure why. What makes a ton of sense, however, is that the decorated prodigy of two famous cycling parents is looking at BMC's plans for his spring program and thinking he would rather, at the tender age of 20, throw himself fully into his new venture. Rainbow stripes are cool and Olympic medals cooler, but road racing is what's gonna pay the bills. No final decision, and the 2012 Games may tempt Phinney back to the track, as seemed to be the understanding when Phinney signed with BMC. Stay tuned.
As to what this means in 2011, this is pure fan goodness. Phinney will be playing with house money for 2-3 years, thanks to Americans being so clueless about cycling and what a cobbled monument win would mean. Sure, we at the Cafe will team up with CyclingNews, VeloNation, VeloNews, and so on to raise expectations worldwide, but once BMC disembarks for Europe, our voices will be easy to drown out in a flood of Dutch and French. So Phinney gets a free shot at the monuments with nothing more than some instructions from his DS holding him back. If he's in a break with teammates Alessandro Ballan and/or George Hincapie, the strongest guy will be in charge.
But it almost certainly won't be Phinney. Unless he's one of the greatest phenoms in cycling history, chances are he'll find the grown-up speed and 260km distance a pretty serious challenge in his first Elite Pro foray(s). As he himself points out, the U23 version of Paris-Roubaix, which he's won twice, is only 180km or so. A realistic expectation is that Phinney's raw power and cobbles experience (such as it is) make him an asset into the later stages of the race, potentially a valuable ally to Ballan and Hincapie, but lacking the fitness to duel with Boonen, Cancellara or the Garmin Armada in the last hour. That kind of strength isn't acquired overnight. Same goes for Flanders.
Still, my reason for being excited about this, apart from the selfish disinterest in track, is that concentrating on the classics now probably does hasten his rise to the level of a contender. There's no better preparation for riding the hardest races in the world than... riding them more. A few grand tours should also help harden those young legs into fitness for the big battles. And every day spent on the track is a day not doing things on the road. So when do the expectations arrive? Every rider has his own path, but staying on Paris-Roubaix, Boonen held his first cobble aloft at 24. Merckx won just shy of 23, abeit in another era. There are several modern riders who won somewhere around age 25: Marc Madiot, Eric Vanderaerden and Fabian Cancellara, for starters. There are plenty more guys winning in Roubaix in their thirties, but real greatness on the cobbles can only be hidden for so long.
And one last reason: George Hincapie is 37. The time to ride with and learn at the proverbial right hand of America's greatest classics rider is now.
Photo by Chris See, used with permission
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Not a huge surprise
especially since they axed the pursuit. In one swift, moronic move the UCI managed to sever the event that worked as a natural link between the track and the road. I’m sure the trade teams thank them, it plays right in their hands. No more split agendas for riders. Of course it also drains the UCI track-events of most of the non-sprint talents. Oops.
I was actually surprised by the article CN ran
I was already expecting Phinney to be all in for the classics and road racing.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
At his signing presser
there was some discussion by the reporter, whoever it was who kept pointing out that he knows the Phinneys, that track was part of the bargain. But I’m sure BMC only grudgingly agreed, making walking back on it an easy move.
"Next year we will build a strong team around Tom. We don't need pseudo-stage racers any more in this team." -Patrick Lefevre, 2005
by Chris Fontecchio on Nov 29, 2010 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
Seems a logical and smart move on all accounts by Phinney
With the indiv pursuit gone at the Olympcis, and him holding no realistic chance (sorry to be blunt) in the team pursuit, then he is only left with the omnium for track at 2012. Nothing to be gained riding track in 2011 when he can get all he needs and more riding on the road – adding it will almost certainly do him more good in the long run (ie 2012) than riding with track worlds in mind for next year.
If he wants an Olympic medal
He’s got at least four chances in road events. Eight, if the RR course is suitable.
"Next year we will build a strong team around Tom. We don't need pseudo-stage racers any more in this team." -Patrick Lefevre, 2005
by Chris Fontecchio on Nov 29, 2010 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
Not meaning to preclude a road medal
with above comment, more that track can get a bye this year as not really needed for a 2012 omnium contender. Said more in praise. He and Vos are the two standout candidates for gold in the omnium at the moment.
armitstead?
dunno if she has beaten vos but certainly has the pedigree to be up there across all the disciplines
by thebongolian on Nov 29, 2010 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
Vos rides her first omnium this week
I am a huge fan of Lizzie A, but Vos is Vos! Lizzie won silver in the Worlds this year behind Whitten, but that’s without Vos, Bronzini, & the other scary Points racers taking part…. I think Lizzie will be a contender, & certainly the home crowd advantage will help, but it’ll be a tough one…. not sure if it’s good or bad that the RR course is likely to be flat, for Cavendish, as a lot of the omnium riders (Lizzie included) will also be looking at the RR…
One of the many reasons I have endless respect for Vos was because while lots of other riders were bitching about “their” events being dropped, she was saying at least she goes out as the last ever Points gold medal winner, & hopefully will compete to be the first omnium winner. I LOVE that attitude!
by Sarah Connolly on Nov 29, 2010 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
yep
"Next year we will build a strong team around Tom. We don't need pseudo-stage racers any more in this team." -Patrick Lefevre, 2005
by Chris Fontecchio on Nov 29, 2010 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
I don’t see it as any great sacrifice for Phinney to skip track season next year. I think it very likely – like, almost certain – he rides the Oly in 2012, though.
I think Phinney's 4 year contract is key
Neither BMC nor Phinney need be in any rush to produce results. With 4 years “locked” in, BMC can relax without fear that Phinney will jump ship the moment he gets good.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
At first it starts out as a trickle. . .
"It’s nothing secretive but it’s kept internal . . ." - Pat McQuaid
I'm never too sure about those long contracts.
It seems lots of riders are on their best when in need of a contract. Scheirlinckx for example was 5th in Canada. Nobody expected that.. 1 month later it was said he didn’t have a contract.. 4 years deal seem to relax the riders a bit.. But I can not prove this statement with evidence
Because of the lovely UCI scheduling, there are only a few weeks between Fleche Wallone & the Track World Champs
I don’t quite understand why – there are 4 rounds of the Track World Cup (riders have to ride one to qualify for the Worlds) and 3 of them happen over less than 2 months – we start this week in Melbourne, then 2 weeks later in Beijing, then 3 weeks later in Cali – and finally mid-February in Manchester, I have no idea why they can’t start the Track WC in October, like they used to, & finish the season in January – then riders could have a break and get into road shape for the Classics. I am a huge track fan, but I love women’s road cycling too, & it’s bonkers that when there are only 5 UCI track events, they clash with the road season. A lot of the women ride both – but riding track means that they have to miss at least the first two rounds of the Road World Cup… bah!
by Sarah Connolly on Nov 29, 2010 11:33 AM EST reply actions
And what is actually the connection between FW riders and Track World Champs?
I also fail to see the connection between cobble riders and Track riders..
Well, not sure on the men's, but on the women's, Kirsten Wild & Marianne Vos, off the top of my head
Trofeo Alfredo Binda, the first round of the Road World Cup was won by Vos this year, & clashes directly with Track World Champs.
Because the women are less specialised than the men, there’s a lot more cross-over between the track and road – so Lizzie Armitstead and Giorgia Bronzini, and of course Vos, are all Track World Champions. Armitstead & Bronzini are less likely to be contenders on the cobbles – but Kirsten Wild’s been on the podium 3 (I think) times at RvV, & has to skip it this year to ride Track. There are lots of them who double up on the women’s side. It’s not so much about winning the Classics round of the Track World Cup, but getting some points to actually be in contention. RE FW, I know, for instance, that Nicole Cooke is one of the riders in GB who want a shot at the 2012 Olympics Team Pursuit, and she was 2nd in 2010….
(Shameless self-promotion: my interview with Wild, where we discussed this kind of thing)
by Sarah Connolly on Nov 29, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, but i was talking about the women ;-)
There are the Sky-boys who ride both – Wiggins & Thomas, but I can’t see either of those two challenging for the cobbles wins, no matter what Sky-fans think ;-)
by Sarah Connolly on Nov 29, 2010 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, there always have been a decent number of sprinters and their lead out train on the track.
Most notably, those riders from the northern parts of Europe.
Then, there are the Russians, and the other Eastern bloc riders . . . . .
But with this change, they all will be going to Qatar, TDU, or some other Road Race where it’s warm.
What would Deming do? (+8:00 GMT)
Focus is good for Phinney. Slow and easy the first 18 months will do the trick and
by keeping him away from the big stages races (TdF), hype (as in less) and reality will likely follow hand in hand.
I think the distance is the biggest change by far.
He has the speed and power, like we saw in Boom, but in the long races they blow at some point.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Yeah, this year in de Ronde and Roubaix will probably be two DNF's or some 70th or 80th places.
We don’t know if he even has the talent for that distance. Lest us not forget that a decade ago, Gert Steegmans and Kevin de Weert were the vaunted talents coming out of the Belgian U23 field and not Boonen.
Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!
he better finish, at least Roubaix
if he wants to build towards breaking the record and being mentioned with the likes of Hincapie, Knaven, Impanis and Duclos. Boonen will probably be up there one day as well.
My prediction
OOT. If the weather’s not too brutal you get guys rolling into the velodrome after their work is done. He should finish if he’s not too banged up. For the same reason I finish my long races even after getting dropped — there’s still a benefit to it.
"Next year we will build a strong team around Tom. We don't need pseudo-stage racers any more in this team." -Patrick Lefevre, 2005
by Chris Fontecchio on Nov 29, 2010 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
huh
I think I’d give him a higher placing than that, actually. Top 25-30 in Roubaix, unless it’s totally shit weather. Then, it’s anyone’s guess. And I’m not typically a kool-aide kind of girl.
The Ronde? Eh, yeah, that’s a different piece of work, and a low/dnf type finish is more likely there.
No way.
He will likely play a big role in GW and that should cook him for PR to do anything more then early race cover and getting bottles.
Most likely, he will be 80% used up before the trenches draggin’ coke up to the main guys and when things blow up his day will be done.
As Chris said, I think he’ll come into the ’drome in some conjealed group of gregarios after they watch the finish on their IPhones.
What would Deming do? (+8:00 GMT)
Um, ‘cause neither had a credible team captain to ride for that day?
Both were in shitty weather when luck accounts for much?
Only one of those examples has demonstrated it wasn’t a fluke.
What would Deming do? (+8:00 GMT)
I don't like the little brat
but I am now passionately rooting for him. (Not in an Aussie way. NTTAWWT.)
Could happen.
Another example: Haussler was 25th in his first Paris-Roubaix, and says it was his first big, long race. Age 21 (4 months older than Phinney will be at the 2011 P-R). That was the one he rode with his iPod.
The most important thing isn't how many days you spend fetching bottles, it's how much you enjoyed doing it--Fabian Cancellara
We'll see who's right when the second greatest race in the world
comes around. Just a feeling I’ve got. Maybe the “hell no” was overkill (ok, it was definitely overkill).
yep
That’s what I was thinking. I’m not sure he’ll hit their level right off, mostly because they had more experience with Dutch and Belgian racing going in, you know, being Dutch and Belgian and such. But I think he’ll do better than the off-the-back predictions, for sure.
for the record
my off-the-back prediction is predicated on him expending himself in teamwork. But that too is a wild guess. If they tell him to ride for himself, I’d be optimistic about something like 25th.
"Next year we will build a strong team around Tom. We don't need pseudo-stage racers any more in this team." -Patrick Lefevre, 2005
by Chris Fontecchio on Nov 30, 2010 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
interesting comment on riding a grand tour
Seems to be a rite of passage to winning the classics – it’s one of things that really hardens a rider up to the miles needed. For example Cav winning MSR after completing his first tour. Sure there are more examples.
Guess the obvious choice would be for Phinney to do the Vuelta next year. Giro is too climby and they’ll want the experienced guys for the Tour (assuming that’s Evans’ focus)
Yep
I don’t know if there’s a consensus, but Farrar discussed it as if it were.
"Next year we will build a strong team around Tom. We don't need pseudo-stage racers any more in this team." -Patrick Lefevre, 2005
by Chris Fontecchio on Nov 29, 2010 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
consensus
that it changes riders significantly, yeah. That’s definitely true. Whether a rider can win a long classic without riding a grand tour first, hmm, that would be some cool trivia to track down, actually. Usually, a guy who has the talent to win a major classic rides a grand tour pretty early on, so it’s sort of a moot question, I’m guessing.
Unfortunately,
Phinney will probably win Roubaix before Big George does!
Racing for Victory and Free Beer!

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