VDS Open Season, Second Thread
by Chris Fontecchio on Feb 4, 2010 2:13 PM EST
in FSA Directeur Sportif
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PrintThe main purpose here is to let people keep talking about the start of the Virtual Directeur Sportif signup. If this is news, go here. A few notes...
- First, the doping policy. For practical reasons (per tedvdw), we will exclude any rider who has had a positive B sample from collecting any VDS points after that B sample
has occurredis announced. This will undoubtedly touch off debate -- "how can you leave his earlier points in place?" -- but in reality the only perfect result is an adjudicated confession, and in the real world we are almost always left holding a big ol sack of ambiguity. So we split the baby, cutting off the points after the B sample unless they happen in a stage race that isn't over yet, and don't melt down our new app trying to undo old results. - Second, the fun. Have you seen this? The stats have only just begun...
- Specifically saying "the names of my riders are..." is somewhat frowned upon, but it's great fun to speculate. In the first thread there was discussion of some teams' nationality makeup or pro team makeup. An excellent use of one's time. For the record, while my team isn't final, so far there are six Dutchmen and six Belgians. Rabo, BMC and Omega Pharma (bargain hunting!) seem to be the most frequently occurring teams. As you can tell, I am focused on the grand tours.
- Last, there may be 90 teams completed, but I have received 170 registrations at podiumcafevds.com. In 26 hours. Not too shabby.
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First
Well I’ve never gotten to say it in a race thread so I figured I’d try it on and see how it felt!
by bought with blood on Feb 4, 2010 2:22 PM EST reply actions
Shut up Heinrich, 2nd in two monuments isn't bad...
…oh it’s you Zoe, never mind.
March 14, 2010: The great one returns!
I am often mistaken for a Barbie. Ha!
"Awesome! is more about what gets fans excited than what’s harder to do." - Chris...
So is it frowned upon to reveal the name of our team as well?
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
Can we change our team name.
I named mine before I started picking riders and now the name is not relevant at all.
Nope
fire away!
"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen
by Chris Fontecchio on Feb 4, 2010 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
Not at all
I had to change my first choice in team names, for fear of offending anyone new. All the old timers would have just shaken their heads sadly (Jens first).
"Woof, woof, woof! That's my other dog imitation."
Nope
I put together my roster with my second choice in team names. The first one might not have gone over well (though I thought it pretty funny).
"Woof, woof, woof! That's my other dog imitation."
You really wanna know?
I borrowed it from a colleague at work (it was her bar trivia team name): “My couch pulls out, but I don’t.”
"Woof, woof, woof! That's my other dog imitation."
Ooh.. Nothing wrong with that..
With “what is this hard stuff I’m riding on?”
on the other hand
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
It was - but I was talked into reconsidering.
Good spot though.
"Woof, woof, woof! That's my other dog imitation."
who changed your mind?
the malibu police chief? he’s a real reactionary.
Rodania,,,,,,,Rodania,,,,,,,Rodania,,,,,,,Rodania
Must be exhausting.
"My facking goat didn’t wear Robes! Does he look Scottisch?!" Baron von Frinkenstein
I learned something
I would not have thought offending someone would concern you :)
"Some people are like slinkies - not really good for anything but they bring a smile to your face when pushed down the stairs."
Oh, I usually don't care about going too far
But this one might have been a little too far.
"Woof, woof, woof! That's my other dog imitation."
Drew
recently formed a presidential exploratory committee.
"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen
by Chris Fontecchio on Feb 4, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
I'm in as white house photographer ... right?
by Christopher See on Feb 5, 2010 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
I hate babies
They’re loud and they smell funny. Much like Jens.
"Woof, woof, woof! That's my other dog imitation."
I thought of a good name for Jens' VDS team...
Bjorn in the USA
I just think that’s funny. If I claimed to be Swedish, I’d definitley use it.
"My facking goat didn’t wear Robes! Does he look Scottisch?!" Baron von Frinkenstein
Cantcha hear Bruce Springsteendergard's voice in your head?
Bjorn in the U.S.AAAAA, I was…Bjorn in the U.S.AAAAAA!
"My facking goat didn’t wear Robes! Does he look Scottisch?!" Baron von Frinkenstein
The Boss is from Jersey, you be careful now
snookie may just come after you. On a side note I’m always amazed at how many people believe that is a patriotic song.
March 14, 2010: The great one returns!
Noted. But c'mon...
Bjorn in the USA? That’s just funny.
"My facking goat didn’t wear Robes! Does he look Scottisch?!" Baron von Frinkenstein
A staggering number of people
also think that “Every Breath You Take” is a romantic song. A lot of people don’t bother to read the label, so to speak.
Not linked on the site
so I’ll throw it out here: http://www.podiumcafevds.com/stats.php
A list of all valid teams is on the My Team page, only accessible when logged in.
Maybe every one has been reading irishpeletons articles
And signed young Dan Martin!
by bought with blood on Feb 4, 2010 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
Meh...I am still considering him but I am in the quandary where I know he is talented but
I am not sure if his pick will be justifiable this year because he is still developing.
I think it is because everyone
has bubble boy. He’s like probably the fourth best climber in the world!
The only other thing I can think of is that people have finally realized
That Canada is the new Great cycling Nation and every one has chosen Ryder, Tuft and Meier!!!!
Go Canucks!!
by bought with blood on Feb 4, 2010 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
linked above
second bullet. Subtle, I know…
"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen
by Chris Fontecchio on Feb 4, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
Tyler Farrar is now worth his weight in VDS points.
wonder who went up the most from 2009 to 2010.
"Awesome! is more about what gets fans excited than what’s harder to do." - Chris...
Somewhere in Portland
a spreadsheet is opening…
"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen
by Chris Fontecchio on Feb 4, 2010 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
the anticipation is killing me.
"Awesome! is more about what gets fans excited than what’s harder to do." - Chris...
Because Zoe is anticipating and ONLY because of that
Had the wife email me the right spreadsheet.
So which riders rose in point value the most?
That would be Hagen, who rose 18 points, from 6 to 24.
Right behind him is a tie of 16 points between Greipel, Haussler (both from 2 to 18 points) and Farrar (4 to 20).
Now who dropped the most. Hmm… No dopers or retirees…
Ivan Basso! 9 points from 25 to 16. Wow. Hadn’t realized that.
Right behind him with an 8 point drop are Oscaritto, 8 points from 18 to 10, and Leeenos and Greg Van Avermaet both from14 to 6. Several riders dropped 6 points.
Thanks ursula for posting the info.
Any big name riders that dropped the 6 points?
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
Here are the 6 point droppers
Benna and Sastre from 18 to 12. McEwen from 12 to 6. Arvesen and Bruseghin from 10 to 4 and oh! Uran from 10 to 2! Eight points!
No wonder I couldn't find Benna, I was searching through the 1 and 2 pointers.
I’m assuming hottitude accounts for at least 10 of those 12 points.
that, and having his own barbie.
"Some people are like slinkies - not really good for anything but they bring a smile to your face when pushed down the stairs."
so worth 10 points.
"Awesome! is more about what gets fans excited than what’s harder to do." - Chris...
Perhaps you're kidding about not being able to find him,
but just in case, and maybe for others’ benefits (Benna Fits? Albertina might have one), you may also search by name: http://www.podiumcafevds.com/riders.php?y=2010&q=benna
PdC has officially jumped the shark.
"Awesome! is more about what gets fans excited than what’s harder to do." - Chris...
And don't forget Gasparotto
from 8 to 2. Now is he worth sticking with for 2 points?
I've got him waiting
with that sword just swinging backwards and forwards above his brow.
Thank you ursula. Interesting stats. Now I can relax. All tranquilo here.
"Awesome! is more about what gets fans excited than what’s harder to do." - Chris...
With Rabobank only 9th in the team selections
It doesn’t seem that the PDC crew have much faith in the coming Dutch Hegemony!
by bought with blood on Feb 4, 2010 2:38 PM EST reply actions
Nobody listens to me
Nothing new there.
"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen
by Chris Fontecchio on Feb 4, 2010 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
I tried to make a team named : Dutch Hegemony
The 25 best Dutch riders didn’t exceed 110 points :(. I considered going for Dutch Hegemony and Bah before but even that was not a possibility.
"I'm sorry Karsten, I can't, I'm fucked" Lance Armstrong in respons to Karsten Kroon's request to take over. Shortly before the Muur van Geraardsbergen, Ronde van Vlaanderen 2005
just submitted Team Marmottes
allez les français
I think it’s worth saying again on this new tread ….
NICE ONE Ted
Moo
Bon courage!
I am to chicken to submit yet! Guys are out there racing in February and I can just see my team full of broken clavicles two minutes after submitting!
by bought with blood on Feb 4, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
exactly my thought. So I wait til the deadline. Not that it matters. I still finish well within the peloton.
"Awesome! is more about what gets fans excited than what’s harder to do." - Chris...
Well my team will likely be looking at the peleton
wondering how those guys are going so fast. Sticking up its hand and saying Gruppo! Gruppo!
by bought with blood on Feb 4, 2010 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
On the doping rule,
for me, any one date is good. So not necessarily the date of the B-sample positive, it could just as well be the date from which he is (retroactively) suspended, or the date of the A-sample taken. Of course, some of those dates might coincide, notable the last two I mentioned.
If it's the date of the B Sample
do you really need to do anything? Isn’t that when the rider is suspended, thus unable to earn further points?
"Some people are like slinkies - not really good for anything but they bring a smile to your face when pushed down the stairs."
Maybe if you didn't spend so much time making web pages....
"Some people are like slinkies - not really good for anything but they bring a smile to your face when pushed down the stairs."
Nothing
I’m not saying he should be expensive, but only 1 point? He seems like a great gamble for one point, that’s all.
by lieutenantmudd on Feb 4, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
consider what team he's on
then consider where his opportunities to ride for himself are going to come . . .
Then pick someone else . . .
I've had him for the last two years at 2 points
and I don’t think that he scored one single point.
I'm curious if that stats option could also
out put the number of 32, 28, 24, 22, 20…..etc. point riders that have been selected so far? So say something like:
32 pts: 15
28 pts: 31
24 pts: 14
22 pts: 62
bla bla bla
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
This is already too much info
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
But hey.. I don't care.. I don't have a competitive team
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
I personally would like to see the data. But I like numbers.
If no one else wants to see it, any chance you could send it to me?
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
Ursula and Ted run this show...
I think they’re telling you that noone can have too much information. In the end, it’s up to our judgement.
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Yeah I definitely don't have a problem waiting after everyone submits their team. But I would
still like to see the break down if possible. I don’t need that info now, but would like it some time if it isn’t too much of a problem.
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
I see blatant homerism in ted's stat sheet of top selected teams and nations
this pleases me as I shall limit my homerism to 65% of my team. I petty you fools with all of your Americano’s on your team, team “Ach du Scheisse” will dominate you all.
March 14, 2010: The great one returns!
Me neither, but I don’t have many Brits either. Part of that seems concerning for me, but….. oh well, this is my first year.
I have 2 Brits.
That’s probably unpatriotic of me, too, considering all the trouble we took to get away.
I will be a different rider in 2010, one who wins races.--Linus Gerdemann
I think at least one of them (aside from Cav, Wiggins) is going to do really well this year.
The question is, though, which?
I can't wait to see your team
‘cos I’m convinced that only one from Cav and Wiggins has a chance of doing anything. And the only other only other one who might have got some results is instead learning to walk again.
I probably agree with the first half of that, actually.
The second… it depends what/where you’re looking for them to do well. Do you mean win big things or do rather well in the sort of races majope’s other post’s talking about? Because I think I mean rather more the latter…
I'm not talking about them doing big things.
But I think there are a couple who might makes strides and hence just might be decent value given their low cost.
Froome and House!
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
Then you're mad!
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
Yo Frinkster...
Can you suggest a token Dutchman for me, at 4 points or less? C’mon… who’s gonna be wallowing in Win this year…?
I'm feeling guilty.. I don't have a Dutchman either
and although I wanted Gesink that didn’t work out..
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
I want Gesink
But I’m trying to figure out how much he’ll crash this year. If it isn’t much, he’s a huge bargain. If he does….
by Douglas Ansel on Feb 5, 2010 11:05 AM EST up reply actions
Posthuma, Ten Dam and Tankink! 2 for each of them!
Reus at 1 is a bargain.. Well pick your chose
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
Noo. Just entered the bargains I liked... And now I have to fire 7! of them.. How cruel is that...
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
Thanks.I'll take this under advisement ;)
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Those are two good riders, especially one of them. However they are still fairly low in a deep roster
would take an injury or an amazing spring to get them in the position to earn some nice points. They are also fairly expensive imho. The cut off for me is about 55-60 VDS points per 1 pt spent. Obviously you have to take a gamble every once and again, but a few of those young guys are still too wet behind the ear.
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
i am so stoopid
why did i pick the guy who is probably going to win the tour of ireland thinking i’d picked up a 1 point bargain without realizing the tour of ireland wasn’t on the list of races?
DOH!
Swift
Staring at the swim team gets you killed by a gang of dancing ninja men who know how to twirl.
by TheFigurehead on Feb 5, 2010 6:49 AM EST up reply actions
You're a secret fan of Alberto Volpi? ;)
Staring at the swim team gets you killed by a gang of dancing ninja men who know how to twirl.
by TheFigurehead on Feb 5, 2010 6:48 AM EST up reply actions
I think you just missed the red shorts.
I will be a different rider in 2010, one who wins races.--Linus Gerdemann
Another thanks for the spiffy site!
Saves me from obsessively checking my math. Now I let’s see if I can refrain from obsessing over team composition….
And it's always fun to pick someone you've never heard of.
Makes watching how they do all the more educational ;-)
I have one in that category (well, sort of, I mean I have heard of him but...)
however I may be about to give him the boot.
I was thinking this too.
The first ten picks were so easy. By the end it was “hey, I’ve never heard of this guy, but he’s from [city X] and I love that place! Oh, why not?” Of course, there may be a reason you’ve never heard of them…. :)
Yeah, I think the more I tinker
the worse it’s going to get. I’m trying to just sit on my hands and hope for some beginner’s luck.
Hasn't Valverde's positive already been announced ?
so will he score zero points if he is suspended or for some unfathomable reason not.
March 14, 2010: The great one returns!
No A or B sample in the Valverde case. I imagine it would take place from when his suspension did. But I’m new here.
Yeah I think that is right
If his suspension is applied worldwide then (obviously) he won’t score. But he will at least race Paris-Nice.
If anyone is interested
Who scored what in last year’s Cat 6 races
I will be a different rider in 2010, one who wins races.--Linus Gerdemann
Does the app have an auto timeout?
It looks like it is signing me out if I don’t click anything for 5 or 10 minutes.
Yep, it uses "session" logins
and a session expires after 3 minutes of inactivity, as per this web server’s settings.
just finish my team!!
My biggest doubt is Scaponi!! I need a guy for GC/climb in Giro, T-A too, (but this guy have a suspicious past…)
some notes:
noone from Columbia, unlike last year that was the team i had picked more guys!! (i think the most of them are very expensive!!)
2 Garmin guys, unlike last year, i had 0 (you guys are convincing me…)
7 italians, is the most representative nation!!
“Portinado” is the name. if i get to 2nd temporarily like last year, would be a victory…
Hmm...at last count I had 6 from Columbia and 0 Italians.
It’s like looking into a mirror.
I will be a different rider in 2010, one who wins races.--Linus Gerdemann
I might be missing something here
but rather than try to fill each individual race with riders, why not go for the best 25 riders your 150 points can afford you? I asked this question before, but it isn’t like we have to set a 9 man roster per race. As a result, it isn’t like 250 points T-A is worth more than 250 points in TdF. I obviously might be missing something, but isn’t it better to just get the best riders you can get, regardless of whether they ride the T-A or Giro?
B/c ultimately if your rider which cost you 4 pts rides for 350 VDS points during the season, whether they are all from the Giro, or spread out across Milan- San Remo, Paris Roubaix, Liege…etc. doesn’t make a difference. 350 pts in one race= 350 points over the course of 6=7 races. I know of another fantasy cycling league where the complexity is in setting up a 9 man team for each individual race to get as many full squads in as possible so you get points across each race. Here the difficulty is in getting the best 25 guys you can.
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
I should note that in the other league, you get 30 riders (4 from Cat 1, 10 from Cat 2, 16 from Cat 3) and from those 30 riders
you can only have any 9 riders active per each individual race. So as a result you need to be wise and pick people for the cobbled classics, Espana, Giro, World’s, TdF…etc. as you want the best 9 riders per race that you can possibly put together. Here we get points for each person over the season, so I think the best 25 is the best way to go? Right?
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
If you have 10 guys racing in one race and 0 guys racing in another,
Then your guys are fighting for half the available points.
He who is, is. He who is not, seeks.
Ultimately that doesn't matter since what matters is the total points accumulated over the course of the
season by the rider. Whether they score 450 points in race A, or score 200 points in race B, 200 points in race C, and 50 points in race D at the end of the season it is exactly the same.
What matters is performance over the course of the year. Not per race.
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
But it changes the odds of how many points will be gotten in a race
If in flying dogs example above (to take it to an extreme) , you have 10 guys in one race, and 5 of them make the top 5, your other 5 guys can’t any higher then 6th, so will get fewer points. Whereas if those other 5 guys were racing somewhere else, they could get the points for winning.
Or something like that. Odds probably isn’t the right word. I suck at stats.
True, but honestly there aren't many overlaps of major races.
I know Gent Wev and Volta Catalunya overlap this year. Then you have the Giro and California overlaping as well, and Dauphine Libere and Tour de Suisse. I’m sure there are quite a few smaller races that over lap. However you have to ask yourself how easy is it going to be to pick a “no name racer” to win one of the smaller races? That is hard. So yes, there are a few over laps of races (3 sets of major races) but if you select your roster wisely you should be fairly well represented in both sets of races. Still early to know who will ride what for sure, but based off of previous years you can get a general idea.
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
Different people have different strategies.
Some find it’ more interesting to follow the races if they try to be competitive across the board, while others like to focus on the classics or Grand Tours. And lots, like you, just go for what they consider the best riders the money can buy.
I find that if you have no one on your team who can compete in Spanish stage races, not only will they become quite uninteresting to watch, but other people will pick on you mercilessly.
I will be a different rider in 2010, one who wins races.--Linus Gerdemann
Thanks for sharing that. Yeah I guess there are different ways to go about doing this.
I guess if one wants to follow individual races then that might be good to pick a few riders to follow in those races.
Didn’t know you guys liked to pick on people so much ;)
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
Are you speaking from experience here majope?
Hmm, yes, I do seem to rememeber something about the skillset of Team Red Shorts in certain countries…it’s all coming back to me ;-)
Sure,
but which are the best 25 riders? Will one 32-pointer score exactly half as much as two 16-pointers? Probably more, so the 32-pointer might seem like the obvious choice, but what if he gets injured, gets suspended or just plainly has an off-year? Your whole investment gone in one blow.
Also, lots of teams will probably end up with a slew of 1- or 2-pointers. From a mathematical point of view they all seem pretty much identical. Much subjective preference or inspired gambling going on right there. The bottom half of your roster might make the difference between finishing 1st or 10th.
I completely agree. But to pick a few riders who will do well in small no name Spanish or Italian races
doesn’t make sense. With any rider, it is a gamble of whether they will be healthy the whole season, race enough races to make some points, and meet or exceed their mean points total. Obviously this is where guessing and plain luck come to play. No one knows who the best 25 riders for 2010 will be. But if you take 2008 and 2009 results you can start to put together a picture that gives you a general idea. Also by using some nifty websites, you can actually map out their points total since they started racing and see what their projection is. Are they getting better, or are they starting to regress and have they hit their peak. Also can look at the number of UCI points they average per race or per km for a given year. Just gives some more objective data when putting together a team. But in the end it is part luck and part gut feeling that will make the difference.
Just saying if one wants to do well, it is probably best to put the best (highest scoring over the course of a year) 25 riders one can for the 150 points we have to spend. If one wants to have fun and as a result pay attention to more races or our favorite teams, then selecting based on races, teams, or nationalities makes more sense. But what do I know.
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
My advice
Don’t bother with all that research and stuff. Just pick Valverde, three or four other guys you like, and then round it out with a bunch of 1 and 2-pointers whose names start with a letter that you fancy… like the letter “G”.
Hahaha nice. I don't like the letter G. Maybe J.
Valverde sounds like a very good idea based on his past performance over the past past several years. But the risk of him getting busted for doping, not sure those out weigh that.
Research is cool. Gives me the chance to read up on riders I have never heard of before. :)
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
Valverde and the G's
Valverde 32
Gesink 20
Greipel 18
Gerrens 16
LL Sanchez Gill 12
Oscar Freire Gomez 10
Linus Gerdemann 6
Matthew Goss 4
George H 4
I just have to round out a bunch of 2’s and 1’s and I am set
Re: your "just saying" part
seems like that is the definition of the game, no? Play to win = pick the highest scoring team = pick 25 riders with the best combined score. Yes. THE PROBLEM IS (sorry), you don’t know which 25 that will be.
in regards to the best 25
I never said I knew which ones would score the highest, but odds are pretty sure that if they stay health riders >14/16 will score more points than those in the 14> and under group. Not sure anyone is seriously bold enough to say they have the winning team at this point.
Also, I’m sure the definition of the game to play to win is not going to hold for each player. Some are just doing this for fun.
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
but it probably also good if you can score some points where few other contestants do, if at all possible
(if we’re being all scientific, like)
thanks for the advice
i know that strategy maybe isn’t the most correct, but i like to have some guy in every race….but i think i wil fire Scarponi in next days…lol
Some stats on my team...
Average cost: 5.96 (standard deviation: 7.66)
Average points scored last year per rider: 46.08 (standard deviation 501.9)
Nationalities: 4 Belgians, 4 French, 3 Italians, 3 Yanks, 3 Aussies, 3 Brits, 2 Spainish, 1 Irish
Teams: 4 evil Garmin, 4 Sky, 2 HTC-Columbia, 2 Liquigas and 1 from each of BMC, Quickstep, Katusha, BBOX, Vaconsoleil, Français des Jeux, AG2R, Topsport Vlaanderen, Caisse d’Epargne, Cervelo, Milram andEuskatel
As of now for me:
Average cos per ridert= 6.0 (SD= 6.51)………. should be around 6 for everyone since we all have 150 points to fill 25 roster spots. Will differ if some only used 148-149 points.
Average points won last year per rider= 351.84 (SD= 445.15)
Average points scored last year per point spent= 58.64 VDS points won per point spent
I think that last number, points scored per point spent is basically the most important number in the end. Kinda like watts/kg for a rider.
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
Precisely
But in the end the whole VDS thing is like Paris-Roubaix. You need a very good team to be one of the contenders. BUT, you also need to be lucky to make it to the finale in one piece.
Last year I did pretty well in a tour only fantasy game where I my team was without Evans and Menchov. Made myself €150 but it would be completely different if the Aussie and the Rus had done better.
"I'm sorry Karsten, I can't, I'm fucked" Lance Armstrong in respons to Karsten Kroon's request to take over. Shortly before the Muur van Geraardsbergen, Ronde van Vlaanderen 2005
Are the VDS threads gonna rival the Olympics?
Somewhat shocked to get home and find that we’re onto the second thread already…
[And for the record, I had nothing to do with it! In fact, there’s not too much activity from my countrymen here, either. Frinking does seem to have played a part, though…]
Man, this is way harder the second time around.
Last year was my first year playing, so I just picked a random collection of dudes I like, and ones I thought would do well, and didn’t end up doing too badly.
I feel like this year I should actually know what I’m doing. My main goal is to beat my position from last year…
Sigh. Last year I studied the previous year's top VDS teams and devised a strategy to earn 10,000 points...
I picked some great up-and-comers who totaled 6955 points in 2008, but I was sure they would improve. And they did. EBH, GHH, Cav, Schlecklet, Gilbert—huge jumps, all of them. I got my 10K points—yay! But unfortunately, what would have been elite in 2008 was waaaaay down in the pack in 2009.
I got smacked by two things: 3 bad picks who didn’t produce to expectations (hey, that’s what makes it a game), and to a lesser extent by my choice of 1-pointers. Because I loaded up with mid-range talent (7 guys in the 10-16 range), I had 10 1-pointers. Only four of them scored points. Of the six who didn’t score a single point, 5 of them were promising young guys from Garmin.
Did I just pick the wrong promising young guys from Garmin? Well, there were ten on offer. Only one of them scored any points during the season: Timmy Duggan, who picked up 25 points somewhere.
So my rule this year is No One-Pointers from Garmin…which almost certainly means this is the year they skyrocket.
Nothing drives you crazier than VDS.
I will be a different rider in 2010, one who wins races.--Linus Gerdemann
Well, if your 6 1-pointers had scored at the predicted rate
of 60ish per point spent, they would have only given you another 360 points. I don’t really think you can get big points from these guys, unless you/they get really lucky. Two-pointers on the other hand are another story. I have calculated that I would have come veeery close to winning if I hadn’t removed HH from my team at the very last second.
I do agree that I don’t think it’s the best idea to pick lots of chap guys from one team. No way are they all going to have a breakout year. And I had lots of cheap GarMen last year too! Am definitely going to spread them around this year.
But is there necessarily a big difference between 1 & 2 pointers?
HH aside, I mean? On the whole are not two pointers just one pointers who got lucky in the odd race?
You clearly haven't seen my 1 and 2 pointers!
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
lol
I would say there is very little difference between 1 and 2 pointers as most of them will not score at all and most of the rest will score in one race. The trick is to find the few riders (between one and seven riders I’d say) that stand a good chance to do what Haussler or Greipel or Fuglsang did last year. I think there are a couple like that.
2-pointers vs. 1-pointers.
Last year, there were 156 2-pointers on offer. 102 (about 65%) of them scored at least something. 42 (about 27%) returned at least a comfortable 70 PPS (per point spent).
1-pointers: there were 311 available, of which only 92 scored something (not quite 30%). Again, exactly 42 returned 70 PPS or better—only 13.5%.
If you’re looking for stars (say, a return of 200 PPS or better), there were 9 of those among the 2-pointers (5.8%) and 10 among the 1-pointers (3.2%).
In general, then, you’ll have a much better chance among the 2-pointers. They’re guys who have at least scored something in the past, so it stands to reason that they will have a better chance of scoring again in the future. Might just mean that they’re on teams who give chances to everybody, instead of dividing firmly into stars and water-carriers.
I will be a different rider in 2010, one who wins races.--Linus Gerdemann
Thank you for the data
I tried saying something along those lines in another post and someone was just trying to convince me a 2pointer was a 1pointer who just got lucky. While this might be true, a 2pointer has a better shot at a break out year than a 1 pointer in general. Base on the numbers you just provided. It is just a basic principle of diversifying your squad. Not too many 2pointers since they cost 2x as 1pointers (obviously) and not too many 1pointers since they aren’t quite as proven to perform.
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
do you think there will be
another guy like Haussler, a 2 pointer that will score 100 points?
My question is if usually appears a guy like him every seasons?
I think you mean
A 2 pointer who will score 1000 points.
My thinking is that definitely there are several 2 pointers who will score several hundred points and will next year be priced between 10-20 points. But will one of those score 1000 points? Possible but less likely.
Of course there will be...
you just gotta figure out which one ;-)
"My facking goat didn’t wear Robes! Does he look Scottisch?!" Baron von Frinkenstein
I dont really think there is.
They are pretty much all a crapshoot. I’m just still bitter about dropping Barbie.
Who is this Barbie you speak of?
I’m not familiar with all the nicknames of the pros yet.
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
Wow! You must be new here.
You,ll enjoy this, and you can thank Majope for her efforts. Barbie Barbie
He who is, is. He who is not, seeks.
Thanks.
Yes I’m somewhat new. Still trying to get the lay of the land.
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
rookie mistake
finishing so high in your first year. Tsk tsk. I, on the other hand, finished 23rd from the bottom and have a great chance to improve (maybe).
Can we also make the worst 150 team beforehand?!
I see some fellows how can enter that team
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
Didn't you do that last year?
I will be a different rider in 2010, one who wins races.--Linus Gerdemann
The editors comp was a big hit lats year.. So is there a build in function for that?
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
With only three of the top known(riders with past histories of doing very well) riders allowed per team
I’m thinking that not only will finding the diamonds in the rough be important but picking the correct few from the 10-16 point category is going to be the determining factor. These are the riders not in the elite 18 most likely to score that magic 1000 plus points.
Unless of course one opts for a 25 rider 6-10 pointer strategy. If you simply average 500 per rider you should be doing quite well.
by bought with blood on Feb 5, 2010 12:11 PM EST reply actions
thing is you have to avg 6 pts per rider with your 25 riders
so it has to be more like 25 rider 2-10 (or whatever) pointer strategy.
That is an interesting theory, but I think it will be hard to
average 500 points with just riders from 2-10. It could be done, but ultimately there will be riders there that will score 0 points for you. The question is can you diversify enough to get enough guys to score 1000-1100 points to compensate for those that score 0 during the year?
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
If it matters the UCI wild Card list is out of on cyclingnews.com
by Christopher See on Feb 5, 2010 12:27 PM EST reply actions
Didn't we already know most of those teams would be wild cards?
Like BMC, Cervelo, Vacansoleil, Bbox…etc?
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
Alejandro Valverde
So what is the situation with Valverde? He is banned from racing in Italy. But what is this mess about the CAS meeting that took place January 12-14? A news link mentions that CAS will not extend a world wide ban and “The panel considered the requests filed by UCI and WADA to suspend Alejandro Valverde worldwide for a period of two years could not be entertained given they were outside the scope of the present arbitration procedure.”
Then there is another hearing from March 18-21, where the UCI and WADA will contest the Spanish Cycling Federation’s decision not to open a case against Valverde. I’m trying to get my head around CAS and their authority and that of the UCI. Is the CAS decision binding for the UCI? Or can the UCI still end up suspending Valverde? It seems like a very dicey situation. Probably not worth the risk to pick him up?
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
Yeah, the first hearing was not about extending the ban--it was about whether the Italian ban should stand.
Decision is expected in March. And yes, the March hearing is as you describe—if you want to see previous discussions on these, there’s a site search function. I know people got into how the hierarchy is structured as far as CAS and the UCI.
CONI seemed to win their points in the January hearing. If the Italian ban is upheld, the UCI will almost certainly go ahead and extend the ban worldwide—but none of it is expected to be settled before the VDS deadline. It’s a definite risk.
I will be a different rider in 2010, one who wins races.--Linus Gerdemann
Thanks. I will go back and read the old comments on the situation.
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
Incidentally
Monty posted in one of the earlier threads a link from the Spanish press saying that CONI took samples from 42 of the Puerto blood bags, not just Piti’s. If their case against Valverde holds, it might be a bad time to pick any of the Puerto crowd.
I will be a different rider in 2010, one who wins races.--Linus Gerdemann
What was the situation with Allan David and Puerto?
Wasn’t he somewhat involved?
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
Personally, I don't want to get into hashing and rehashing the evidence against various riders here.
It frequently leads to hard feelings. The stuff you want is out there if you look—just remember that it’s “Davis,” not “David.”
Now, if new cases actually do come up due to CONI"s acquisition of the blood samples, you can bet we’ll discuss them endlessly. But in the meantime, let’s get back to really fun stuff, like statistics.
I will be a different rider in 2010, one who wins races.--Linus Gerdemann
What she said.
The Googler is your friend. Also, there is oodles of explanation of these cases here on the site. Searchy searchy.
Bones well & truly picked out of the Valverde TAS/CAS latest
here.
As for jurisdiction, the key word in CAS/TAS is “arbitration”, in that they are arbitrators rather than judges per se. Therefore their decisions are binding insofar as the parties agree to be bound by them beforehand, as is usually the case with any kind of arbitration. Issues about CAS/TAS’s jurisdiction tend to arise before, not after a case goes to them, if one of the parties will not agree to abide by their eventual decision (this has happened recently in football). To avoid this, CAS/TAS as the arbitrator in the case of disputes is usually build into the governing body of a sport’s own rules. However, if a party doesn’t think the arbitration has been carried out properly, as I understand, it they can apply to the Swiss courts for a judicial review?
Interesting. I am just starting to read through that old post.
Maybe this is mentioned in the old post, but couldn’t the UCI use the same evidence that the CAS used and come to the conclusion? If Basso and Scarponi were busted in a similar manner, why shouldn’t Valverde?
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
It's up to a rider's home federation to open a case, not the UCI.
When, following the results management process described in chapter VII, the UCI makes an assertion that a License-Holder committed an anti-doping rule violation, it shall notify the License-Holder’s National Federation and request it to instigate disciplinary proceedings.
That’s why the Valverde case is so important—it’s another national federation (CONI) taking action, because the rider’s home federation did not. And why there’s a hearing attempting to take the Spanish Federation to task for not opening a case against Valverde.
I will be a different rider in 2010, one who wins races.--Linus Gerdemann
ja
Could it be March already? I’m seriously tired of waiting for the decisions on this case. Sheesh.
No kidding.
I’m at wits end with this whole case, and have such strong opinions and perspectives on this particular affair. I’m not going to share them here and now, for all of our benefits, but at this point it extends far beyond my ‘fandom’ of Valverde, and him as a guilty or not guilty party. He, certainly, wouldn’t be the first rider whose name I wished wasn’t associated with doping.
I really wish it would all be done, because it gets so much in the way of me enjoying what I enjoy about pro cycling – the cycling. Again, this fractures my ideas about much more than individual rider(s), but moreso the structure of the sport, the federations, the timing, statutes, where we’ve come from to where we are, and the core purpose of anti-doping itself.
This case, is one that I find particularly challenging.
As a change of the topic,
what websites/resources do you guys look at when trying to decide on up and coming riders? I cam across: http://www.the-sports.org/cycling-statistics-individual-s2-c2-b4.html that gives a good breakdown of races that they have rode in. However it is far from perfect since it only gives races they placed well in.
I have noticed cycling is not like baseball where there are multiple scouting reports on prospects and well regarded ranking systems overall and for within an organization. I have not come across anything like this for cycling. Does anyone know of one? It is really hard to know which young riders to follow in the upcoming year and who might be good to follow (besides the big names of EVH, Martin, Kreuziger, Nibali…etc.) Wish there was a way to learn more about the not so big name up and coming riders. Any help? Can you point me in the right direction for resources? Thanks.
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
I use..
my brain… and my heart
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
And have the most fun!
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
*snort*
pepsi up the nose…thanks Phil
"My facking goat didn’t wear Robes! Does he look Scottisch?!" Baron von Frinkenstein
I believe that is the same thing Boonen said when he got busted
March 14, 2010: The great one returns!
I believe he did...
No coke, Pepsi.
"My facking goat didn’t wear Robes! Does he look Scottisch?!" Baron von Frinkenstein
But tried to add..
Cycling is Europe minded or the other way arround.. Besides CQranking there is nothing of scouting reports. You can look on Dutch sites oth. Wielerflits.nl has a breakdown of most teams.. But that’s in Dutch
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
Thanks for that. That site looks very helpful.
At least it helps narrow down the number of young guys to look at a bit more closely. :)
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
some of us get drunk and listen to what people on the
internet tell us to do, and broadcast the whole show.
Or so I’ve heard.
Muahaha Losers! ;)
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
Ooh I apologize.. I'm out of my element....
Or whatever…
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
who was the member last year
that put all of the riders names on pieces of paper and then banged head against the table and whichever name stuck on forehead became a vds rider? obviously joking, but i like the idea of drinking, randomness and pain.
Rodania,,,,,,,Rodania,,,,,,,Rodania,,,,,,,Rodania
megabeth and sui
"Here the high school level of immaturity will be left to hottitude columns and people like myself." Der Phil. H
nice research, or memory.
tonight i’m going to bloody my forehead picking a team.
totally OT but it just hit me. why did this lebowski obsessed forum not make a wonderful connection between dark helmet and his dark outfit with ’the man in the black pajamas, Dude. Worthy f*ckng adversary.
Rodania,,,,,,,Rodania,,,,,,,Rodania,,,,,,,Rodania
I think because to use Lebowski on Lance is........unworthy.
"Woof, woof, woof! That's my other dog imitation."
F#%$ing Armstrong, man...
that creep can roll.
"My facking goat didn’t wear Robes! Does he look Scottisch?!" Baron von Frinkenstein
Also, keep an eye on early-season races and don't turn in your team too soon.
People who submitted teams before Qatar and Algarve last year probably missed out on Haussler.
I will be a different rider in 2010, one who wins races.--Linus Gerdemann
I agree. Even though this is my first year playing (yea for the new guy!), I don't see the advantage of submitting early
Maybe if there was some kind of bonus points associate with how long it takes you to submit. I’m going to wait until the last day to make it final.
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
the flip side
Is that there are guys that who will look good early and then do nothing the rest of the year. So don’t put too much stake into the early season races.
"Some people are like slinkies - not really good for anything but they bring a smile to your face when pushed down the stairs."
NOW HEAR THIS
Rider lists may now be sorted in all possible ways (well except “UCI Cat”, sorry), see http://www.podiumcafevds.com/riders.php
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