Who Will Win Milano-Sanremo? The Magic Eight Ball Tells All

Milano-Sanremo defies prediction. It's the sprinters' classic, but that hardly helps narrow down the possibilities. Especially since it's not always the sprinters' classic. Just ask Fabian Cancellara, who won with a 2 kilometer escape not too long ago. This year's race repeats the finish of the past two years along the Lungomare Italo Calvino. So someone out there - Philippe Gilbert, perhaps? - could repeat Cancellara's feat. At a loss to predict the outcome of this year's edition of La Primavera, I turned to that infallible oracle, the Magic Eight Ball.
Will we see a first-time winner at La Primavera?
Magic Eight Ball says: It is decidely so.
Alrighty then.
Will this year's Milano-Sanremo end in a sprint?
Magic Eight Ball says: Better not tell you now.
Quite the tease, this Magic Eight Ball.
Let's see what the Magic Eight Ball has to say about the favorites.
Tom Boonen: Boonen's been showing signs of form, bounding up the road during the Omloop het Nieuwsblad just because he could. Oddly, Boonen has never won Milano-Sanremo. Oddly, because he can climb, sprint, and isn't bothered by monument style distances. Boonen can also count on his Quick Step team to support him nicely. Though last season he swore off bunch sprinting, he seems recently to have changed his mind. A boy's prerogative, I hear. Will Tom Boonen win Milano-Sanremo?
Magic Eight Ball says: You may rely on it.
Tom Boonen and the Eight Ball, so tight.
Daniele Bennati: Bennati spent much of last season injured and didn't really figure in the finale at La Primavera. In truth, he didn't really figure much of anywhere, sadly. This year, he seems to have left his injured past behind. He's even won a race or two recently. His Liquigas-Doimo team is on fire of late, with oodles of wins in a very short amount of time. The team is tailor made to give Benna an arm-chair ride to the finish. Also, they're Italian, which never hurts.
Magic Eight Ball says: Concentrate and Ask Again.
Really, doesn't the Magic Eight Ball know that concentrating with Benna in the frame is like totally impossible? Silly Magic Eight Ball.
Alessandro Petacchi: Petacchi rides for Lampre-Vini Farnese now, and the change looks to suit him. He has Danilo Hondo for lead-out help, and according to Petacchi, the mechanism is beginning to function. I think that means his form is good and he likes his team, but I can't be sure. Petacchi has already won Milano-Sanremo, which if the Magic Eight Ball is to be believed, means an end to his hopes. But the Eight Ball moves in mysterious ways. I mean, they changed the finish since Petacchi won, so it's a completely different race now. Lampre's also bringing Damiano Cunego. I'm not sure why. Maybe he just needed some training or wanted to check out the scenery along the Ligurian Coast. It is quite lovely.
Magic Eight Ball says: Yes definitely.
Alessandro Petacchi will definitely win Milano-Sanremo. Apparently, he's going to share it with Tom Boonen. Hey, no one said the Magic Eight Ball was logical.
Oscar Freire: Freire has two wins to his credit so far at La Primavera. Does he have form for a third? Well, he hasn't won anything yet, which doesn't exactly scream good form. Maybe he'll get lucky and someone will pull a Zabel. Freire will have a solid Rabobank team for support including Paul Maartens and Lars Boom, who may not enjoy this many kilometers in one sitting.
Magic Eight Ball says: Don't count on it.
Alas, no podium flowers for Oscarito.
Filippo Pozzato: He is the Italian National Champion, which should count for something in one of the biggest races on the Italian calendar. Also, he has very swank hair. This also is important. Pozzato won Milano-Sanremo once before. Not a bunch sprinter, Pozzato needs a disorganized finale or a strong breakaway to smile on the podium's top step.
Magic Eight Ball says: Without a doubt.
Carp the diem and all Pozzato, the Magic Eight Ball says it's your lucky day. Of course, it also picked Boonen and Petacchi, so it seems to be having a bit of trouble making up its mind. Omniscience is fickle somedays.
Edvald Boasson Hagen: A fine young cannibal, this Edvald. He's not a pure bunch sprinter, though he's won bunch sprints. A Cancellara-like escape is well within his abilities, if he can hold his form together for the full length of Milano-Sanremo. La Primavera, she is often cruel to the young riders. Also, Edvald appears to have directional difficulties in the final kilometer. Pssst Ed, you get there faster if you go straight. Just trying to help.
Magic Eight Ball Says: Very doubtful.
Maybe next year for the young Norwegian.
Tyler Farrar: The American from Garmin-Transitions made the podium at Omloop het Newsawhatsit for the biggest result of his career to date. I guess he's on form or something. The sprint train at Garmin-Transitions has looked a tad ragged at Tirreno-Adriatico. Hopefully, they get it sorted out pronto. Farrar, he goes uphill pretty good for a sprinter, and it'd be quite a coup to take out his first monument.
Magic Eight Ball says: Outlook not so good.
Farrar's in with a chance, but maybe the podium's looking more likely than the win.
Mark Cavendish: Cavendish won this race last year and is widely considered the fastest sprinter in the world. But even fast guys sometimes lose. Cavendish lost a stack of training time to some sort of gnarly dental problem and is slowly building his form. Or, maybe he's just totally sandbagging. Because that never happens.
Magic Eight Ball says: Cannot predict now.
What good is a Magic Eight Ball that cannot predict now? What, it has a headache or something? So temperamental. Maybe Cavendish, maybe not. That's all I got.
Thor Hushovd: Thor leads Cervélo TestTeam after Barbie got his knee done. Poor Barbie, no second place this year for you. Thor, he has experience. Has he ever won this race? My memory says no. Podium? I'll go with yes. Will he win this year?
Magic Eight Ball says: Better not tell you now.
This Magic Eight Ball is getting irritating. If not now, then when?
Matti Breschel: La Primavera has never had much love for the Danish ex-model (You know you're jealous Barbie, it's okay to admit it.) Maybe he just likes Belgium better. And La Primavera, she can sense such things and it doesn't do to offend her. Holds a grudge, that girl. Breschel shares Saxo Bank with Fabian Cancellara for this race. Who is more likely to win? Let's see what kind of love the Magic Eight Ball has for young Matti, shall we?
Magic Eight Ball says: My sources say no.
See what I told you about La Primavera? She's a feisty one.
Philippe Gilbert: Gilbert never saw a doomed breakaway he didn't like. He joined a move with Riccò not too long ago at Milano-Sanremo, back when Riccò was still racing, that is. Anyway, they didn't make it. Gilbert appears to have gotten slightly smarter in his attacks, or at least, he looked really really smart last year at Paris-Tours and Giro di Lombardia. Winning will have that effect. At Liège-Bastogne-Liège, not so much. Gilbert's a long-shot for this Milano-Sanremo, because really, the breakaway so rarely succeeds. But perhaps the Magic Eight Ball disagrees?
Magic Eight Ball says: My reply is no.
Apparently, the Magic Eight Ball does not disagree. No successful breakaway for Gilbert this time.
Fabian Cancellara: Cancellara won this race in one of the more exciting final attacks in recent years. The RAI announcers nearly had an apoplexy, which is always a sign that some badass bike racing is going down. Look up badass bike racing in the dictionary? You'll find a picture of Cancellara. A repeat of his previous win would be badassery in the extreme. Maybe too extreme. Never count out Cancellara when there's a finish line at stake. At least, that's what I always say.
Magic Eight Ball says: Yes.
The Magic Eight Ball apparently believes in the Badassery. Who am I to question?
One final question for the Magic Eight Ball before we leave it to its own Omniscient devices: Do you know anything about bike racing?
Magic Eight Ball says: Don't count on it.
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Comments
It's gonna be won...
…from a breakaway this year. And it will not be anyone mentioned in the article above.
by Chief Commissaire on Mar 17, 2010 10:08 PM EDT reply actions
no waffling here. The Chief has it.
"Awesome! is more about what gets fans excited than what’s harder to do." - Chris...
by ZoeRochelle on Mar 17, 2010 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
No such nefarious planz
Promise:)
by Jen See on Mar 17, 2010 11:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Lol
Well, the eight ball only answers yes or no questions, so it can’t handle such open-ended pronouncements. Now, if we could make a cycling 8-ball with like rider’s names and stuff?We could get so totally down with the predicting thing.
by Jen See on Mar 17, 2010 11:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Gav Build Your Own Magic Eight Ball
http://www.promobrands.com/magic8balls.htm
Get a PDC logo and even change the answers.
I just had to look, because I knew I had seen something like this before.
You can also do an online version.
I used Magic 8 Ball code to build the unicorn pages.
It's fun to beat Cancellara--Edvald Boasson Hagen
What do you mean - you built the unicorn pages
are you suggesting that the unicorns are getting help with their responses?
This explains the poor help I got from them building my VDS
I went with their suggestions completely and now I find a it was all a scam? I haven’t felt this betrayed since last year when ursula was my guiding beacon.
Ah so you do have the Tooth Fairy across the pond.
One of your number on Twitter had no idea what I was talking about whe I mentioned her!
Didn't she just spend the last 6 weeks at Cavenish's place?
"Woof, woof, woof! That's my other dog imitation."
good one sir
"well...you live in england so: you love the rain. loves the queen. hates cycling. based on mr bean had a tremendous amount of humour. all ride in a mini cooper. all getting drunk before the age of 12. getting drunk at least 3 times a day."- frinking, 7/9/09
Oh and you bought into that line?
he he.
by Christopher See on Mar 18, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
so fun to play with our cousins across the pond...
I get to practice on real live Aussies too.
by Christopher See on Mar 18, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
It's a NorAm ski resort/resort town...
Zoo only begins to describe it.
by Christopher See on Mar 18, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
ah yes
but that’s more like a lake than a pond.
"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen
by Chris Fontecchio on Mar 18, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Um. Er.
No, of course not. It’s just that of the two unicorns and me, I’m the only one with fingers to manipulate a keyboard. Yeah, that’s it! So I had to help them build the pages. Their magic takes care of the rest.
It's fun to beat Cancellara--Edvald Boasson Hagen
Lol, I just had this crazy vision in my head of the unicorns
using the hunt-and-peck typing method on the keyboard with their horn…..
In the US?
It’s on Universal Sports. Check Steephill.tv if you have need for an alternative.
by Jen See on Mar 17, 2010 11:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think Tony will win
and pull a Superman victory salute. Just to show this kid eddy how it is done.
"Racing bikes is for the kids, the rest of us just want to feel like kids on our bikes" - Flying Dog
Nah, it'a bit too close to de Ronde
The man’s lying low ;-)
Another win from Cance?
That would be lovely to watch, but I’m thinking a long-shot. I like Gilbert or Pozzato better of the non-sprinters.
Something tells me that Boonen's enjoyed an eight ball or two over the years.
Sorry, but I couldn’t resist….
Yeah, looks how he is gazing at the 8 ball in the pic
That is Boonen isn’t it?
If you don't have time to do it right the first time, when are you going to have time to do it again?
by CannonDowell on Mar 18, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
The graphic
was originally designed for a Boonen joke, so yeah, it is Boonen. We just freshened up for this bit of fun.
Four winners?
Is the 8-ball sandbagging? And if so, for whom? Who does Black Unicorn have as his captain?
Another possibility is the questioner. Gav has mad writing and analytical skills, but with these magic thingies you have to ask questions with extreme specificity if you want an even slightly reliable answer. It’s like asking the Monkey’s Paw for world peace and it happens, only everyone has been lobotomized because you weren’t specific enough. So, maybe these four guys will win the race at some point. like, in training.
"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen
by Chris Fontecchio on Mar 18, 2010 2:27 AM EDT reply actions
I also think Gav was imprecise
Obviously she phrased the question so that former winners also got the yes nod. Obviously Boonen is the pick.
Ha!
Yes, the Magic Eight Ball is quite cryptic. I can’t pretend to penetrate its inner wisdom.
I did not ask about the Black Unicorn out of fear that the magic forces would converge and cause a dangerous disturbance.
London Book ...
Boonen, T 7.00
Boasson Hagen, E 8.00
Cavendish, M 10.00
Bennati, D 11.00
Freire, O 11.00
Gilbert, Philippe 12.00
Petacchi, A 12.00
Pozzato, F 17.00
Cancellara, F 18.00
Hushovd, T 22.00
Farrar, T 22.00
Cancellara at 18 to 1 looks very tempting ...
… but if the bunch catch him its looks wide open in the sprint.
I’m picking Gilbert for the win, but Pozzato’s a pretty awesome bet too, with those odds.
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Mar 18, 2010 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I would think that Gilbert would have to break away in the last few climbs ...
… which has proved easy in recent years. OTOH, Spartacus can take a momentum flier of the descent into San Remo. Sure, its obvious, but I wonder who can stay on his wheel? Pipo perhaps?
by DeathBredon on Mar 19, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Unibet
Boonen, T 7.00
Boasson Hagen, E 8.00
Cavendish, M 10.00
Bennati, D 11.00
Freire, O 11.00
Gilbert, Philippe 12.00
Petacchi, A 12.00
Pozzato, F 17.00
Cancellara, F 18.00
Hushovd, T 22.00
Farrar, T 22.00
Rojas Gil, J J 35.00
Gasparotto, E 35.00
Davis, A 35.00
Probably they took a lot of money on him early on
and they don’t want to be too exposed if it turns out he’s sandbagging
no, sorry
They are just sucking the late $ out of the Cav lovers.
These sporting house have bigger things to worry about than bike racing. Cav winning won’t hurt them.
by rubesANdbabes on Mar 18, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
lol
i hate it when that happens
"well...you live in england so: you love the rain. loves the queen. hates cycling. based on mr bean had a tremendous amount of humour. all ride in a mini cooper. all getting drunk before the age of 12. getting drunk at least 3 times a day."- frinking, 7/9/09
Cav was at 3.5 to 1 a month ago
I can’t understand why Greipel wouldn’t be given the chance to ride.
Btw, Cycling odds are not ‘as good’ as other sports odds because the betting pool is so small, and partially compulsive – so they get away with stuff in their oddsmaking. Since they make money on stuff like Dave Millar at 100-1 (Or Cav at 10-1?), there is no need for them to be ‘fair’ and give the true odds on a close race. Not everyone, even gamblers bothers to noitice that Cav sucks right now.
If there’s even a whiff of a favorite, the odds will reflect this over-heavily. MSR basically has only longshot favorites, even if Tom looks good – he’s never won it before..
by rubesANdbabes on Mar 18, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
If Cav is really out of it
what about Peter Velits? Placed top 10 last year.
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
In regards to riding for HTC.
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
Farrar at 22 to 1 seems tempting to me.
I have a feeling he can be very fast in the sprint if he is not boxed in.
And what are the chances of that?
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
About 22 to 1
'When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning' - Dr. Reiner Knizia
by bought with blood on Mar 18, 2010 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I've only ever gambled two pounds in my life.
Should have put on more as I ended up picking first and second in the Derby…d’oh! On the plus side, I was the only person on the office jaunt to Epsom who came back in profit :-)
Really?
It depends on what odds you’re talking about, the odds that he won’t be boxed in must be lower or he is the only one who can win.
Staring at the swim team gets you killed by a gang of dancing ninja men who know how to twirl.
by TheFigurehead on Mar 18, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
"Tom Boonen and the Eight Ball, so tight."
sentences like that are why you’re the best gavia.
and speaking of tom’s indiscretions and tightness…
"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."
Cunego Interview today.
He says he has always dreamed of winning Milano-Sanremo. Who knew? The team is riding for Alessandro Petacchi – Saronni calls him Alex, by the way – but Cunego has a free hand. He, Cunego I mean, also said he rode Paris-Nice instead of Tirreno-Adriatico because it’s more international, and he’s over his crash from Ruta del Sol. Cunego called Boonen the favorite, and characterized himself as an outsider. He’ll be watching for an attack from Pozzato or Gilbert and a chance to go up the road. Cunego is “il jolly” which I take to mean the Wild Card at Lampre, according to Saronni.
Nibali, Pellizotti and Kreuziger
play the same “jolly” role for Liquigas. They sound a bit like a multinational law firm, really.
The first two also play the "jolly" role for The Txapela blah blah blah....
Did the article mention that?
Hmm. Perhaps we could have a vehicle in the caravan publicitaire
throwing out free txapeleak for the roadside fans to wear, rather like the BBox and Caisse T-shirts but far more fun…that would increase our presence, no? Maybe this would do the trick:

I nearly wet myself laughing when I saw this thing in San Sebastian.
A txu txu train? Er, I think you mean choo choo! Bahahaha.
Yes!
It chugs up and down the Playa de la Concha in San Sebastian for the assorted tourists/children. Classic.
fantastic
"well...you live in england so: you love the rain. loves the queen. hates cycling. based on mr bean had a tremendous amount of humour. all ride in a mini cooper. all getting drunk before the age of 12. getting drunk at least 3 times a day."- frinking, 7/9/09
txugga txugga
"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen
by Chris Fontecchio on Mar 18, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
How do you pronounce Kreuziger?
Is it Kreu-Sie-keur
Or with a n somwehere.. Somebody? Chechian grrr people out of Chezeque?
curse that word
There's probably a pretty good
gutteral on that last “r”, too, just for that extra Central European zest.
Chechen,
..hate when they call the Spanish Spaniards, too.
by rubesANdbabes on Mar 18, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
There are a lot of bike racers from Slovenia now
and I’m not really sure where that even is…
Slovenia, Slovakia
Slovakia, Slovenia
by rubesANdbabes on Mar 18, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I can serperate them because it was that-country-where-we-discssed-about-slovakia..
So Slovenia is the other
i now separate them
cause my friend plays for a football team in the slovenian premier league..
"well...you live in england so: you love the rain. loves the queen. hates cycling. based on mr bean had a tremendous amount of humour. all ride in a mini cooper. all getting drunk before the age of 12. getting drunk at least 3 times a day."- frinking, 7/9/09
yeah, it's kind of cool
he played for arsenal till we were 17, then they let him go…ended up at crawley town, couldn’t get a decent contract over here, someone set him up with a trial over there…they pay for his housing, car, slovenian lessons…
"well...you live in england so: you love the rain. loves the queen. hates cycling. based on mr bean had a tremendous amount of humour. all ride in a mini cooper. all getting drunk before the age of 12. getting drunk at least 3 times a day."- frinking, 7/9/09
Spainiac?
"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen
by Chris Fontecchio on Mar 18, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Ha!
I’m not sure they’d appreciate our sense of humor.
I dare you to walk up to Flecha before the Ronde and call him a Spaniac. Be sure to video tape the results so we can play along at home.
since he's argentinian
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
What is Pellizotti's role going to be for MSR?
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
He's going for polka dots.
Bicycling is the nearest approximation I know to the flight of birds. Louis J. Helle, Jr.
Anyone from BMC have a shot at this? Ballan? Hincapie?
"Let’s plunge ourselves into the roar of time, the whirl of accident; may pain and pleasure, success and failure, shift as they will- it’s only action that can make a man" Faust, Goethe
Ballan`
Can’t remember where I heard it, maybe Sporza, but Ballan is seen as a threat. He has regrets about 2009. Wants to make amends. And obviously doing it on home soil would be sweet. But he can’t win in an organized finish.
"The only pain I got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is." Edvald Boasson Hagen
by Chris Fontecchio on Mar 18, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
I was getting tired of shaking the 8-ball, but I think Ballan is a good shot for a non-sprint finish. So, Pozzato, Gilbert, Ballan, Cunego, those guys are all wildcards for a late attack – or a move from the Cipressa that somehow stays away. I definitely wouldn’t call Ballan the favorite, but he’s not a rider to rule out either.
I've got Boonen for this one...
he hadn’t won in italy before and picked up a stage in TA, so why not MSR too?
Cavendish looks to be far from any form, I’d even opt for the Gorilla Greipel before picking Frodo (Cav).
Farrar hasn’t shown IMO that he’s capable of this kind of win.
Petacchi & Benatti are the two others whose chances I’d rate this year. I figure one of these 2 plus Boonen will win it.
Cancellara’s 2008 flyer was memorable, in light of stealing a monument from the sprinters, but I think he’s a marked man (much as he was in last year’s WC RR by the spanish & italians) making such an escape unlikely.
What's the link between Cav and Frodo?
Gerrie Kneteman: If a football player falls he shouts for his mother, if a cyclist falls he yells for his bike.
The magic Sporza commentators say:
WUYTS BERTEELE SCHOTTE VD_GOOR VANNIEUWKERKE
Favourite 1 Boonen Boonen Bennati Boonen Bennati
Favourite 2 Bennati Bennati Boonen Bennati Boonen
Favourite 3 Freire BoassonH BoassonH Pozzato Freire
Wild Card Lorenzetto Garzelli Modolo Gavazzi Gasparotto
Sporza sees a two up field sprint ...
… but is MSR ever that straight forward?
by DeathBredon on Mar 19, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Sorry for the confusion,
but they don’t predict a top 3, they pick 3 favourites. They get points for any or all of those 3 finishing top 10 (10 points for the win, 5 for place 2-5, 3 for place 6-10). The wild card is a non-favourite ( http://www.sporza.be/cm/sporza/extra/1.723433 ) and earns another 10 points for a top 10 finish.
I guess I should have left off the 1/2/3.
I really
wish all these people and their moms would quit predicting Boonen as the favorite!
by cyclingdiva on Mar 19, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Oooh, I like the Lorenzetto wildcard
Interesting pick, for sure. Garzelli’s not bad either, no doubt he’ll attack on the Cipressa and Poggio, but I doubt it’ll come to anything.
No one with Boss Hog in the top 2?
Boonen’s on my team but I’ll take EBH as favorite.
by Mr 60 Percent on Mar 19, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

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