A Tour de France Podium Prognostication/Place Your Bets

Hold your stats you math geeks "Stats lie, yo!"  While the numbers game is impressive and entertaining to a point, it is not as reliable as a 'good eye' when dealing with athletic performance. The athlete's will certainly be playing with numbers of their own while building their form, but they know all too well that it doesn't mean a whole lot when it comes to race day- or twenty of them.

So I'm pulling guesses out of the gut, or something that rhymes with that. This prognostication of how a few certain GC contenders are going to do at the Tour is based almost entirely on observation and 'feel'. Some guys are harder to read than others, leaving us with that dreaded uncertainty, "Can't you guys all just tell us honestly how you feel?, enough with the mind games." 

Polemica abounds on the jump: Tread cautiously here if you have a thing for numbers, a weak constitution, are easily offended by opinions, your VDS hopes lie on Contador, or you're a card carrying member of  ELPMO. If you dare to tread on this thread, then let your opinions hang out but keep your privates tucked safely away. No way can this not turn into a "My GC guy can beat your GC guy", so give your best smack talk. Just as surely as your patience is going to be tested as punches are thrown, check your low blows, because the banhammer is out there lingering in virtual reality somewhere. Objectivity and subjectivity will no doubt get blurred, as we are human beings talking about human beings and their capabilities.

                        So Many Contenders, So Few Podium Steps

Alberto Contador is not going to win, but he may just podium. The first week will cut him down to size, Vino will be left standing, and Astana will look to the future without El Pistolero and to the coming Kazach Hedgemony. That's all you need to know really, because anything less than a win for the body-that's-too-small-for-his-head Spaniard means that he lost. Sure you might counter that AC looks good on paper going into the Tour, but he tried his ass off to win the Dauphine aaaaaaand... lost. He's being brought down by a weakened immune system, and well, it's just a bad year out there for some allegy sufferers. Don't fear those of you who bought Contador, he'll still reward your buying price with a win at that little shit three week Spanish race.

Cadel Evans is going to Podium. He's going to laugh (a little inward Aussie laugh) at those who struggle in the first week. He's going to ride up front and ride the colors off the rainbow stripes everyday in the mountains (don't worry, he'll have plenty of jerseys). He is a new man this year, more confident and relaxed, and that leads to some excellent deep recovery sleep every night. This man will also finish the year as the highest ranking rider having worn the WC colors like few riders ever have.

Welcome the new King of England Bradley Wiggins. New Team Sky knows what they are doing with their athlete's performance preparation. They started off the year strong but tactically off. And while they wanted to come out strong and put in strong showings throughout the season which they did, they have really been planning all along for the big dance. Brad is ridiculously fit and his planning  and preparation has been disciplined and methodical on a new level towards perfection. He could be the one to take the top step. Most everyone has a wait and see attitude with Wiggins this year because those damn stats are missing. I call that kind of sitting on the fence "chicken shit". Some think Brad needs to back up last year's 4th place by producing another  podium threatening performance this year before they lay any money down, well you can't make any real money gambling that way chicken shits. But last year did come as a surprise to him and everyone, but don't make the mistake of looking at it as a fluke. He may be the one to prevent Alberto and all the others from clawing their way back onto the podium.

Basso/Kreuziger make up my question mark duo. Both will make top 10, and one will be top 5 or podium, their fate lies in Wiggins legs. My bet is that Basso is continuing his steady comeback and will ride with similar or better form than he did at the Giro and be the one with the better result. You might ask, "Well then why can't Basso win if he rides like he did at the Giro?" please, this is the Tour de France, not some three week shit race in Italy.

The Schlecks of the Frank and Andy variety. No question but Frank will turn out to be the leader this year. I think he is coming into the form of his career, but it will wane just a little too soon and the final ITT will be his downfall. This Tour will be disheartening after the announcement of Team Schleck/Lux.

Menchov/Gesink and Rabobank are good at handling hardship.

And hopefully Sastre can stay sober and out of the tabloids, being the wild and crazy guy he is.

So there you have the short list of the many many GC contenders... Oh wait, I forgot to mention one other rider.

Yes Lance Armstrong will win the Tour. This isn't a claim I make lightheartedly either. He's back. No you knuckleheads, not back to his legendary unbeatable form, but good enough. Last year I was just hopeful, but in the end I was impressed with 3rd overall, and more and more impressed as time passed. Coming into this year's Tour with things the way they should be with LA and AC separated, no one should be so insulting to suggest that Radio Shack should ride for someone other than Lance, but that's just the sort of stupid thing that hateful detractors say. Fortunately, The Podium Cafe is a much more cycling intelligent crowd and a somewhat pro Lance crowd, where almost every one pretty much agrees that Lance has earned the respect that he has around the world both on and off the bike. Lance hasn't admitted the faults of his training last year, but then, it was seriously interrupted and he also considered not continuing with his comeback.  His preparation hasn't been interrupted that much this year, andhe has brought his latter Tour preparation to Europe as opposed to riding with some buds up in Aspen. His ITT is lacking, but he knows this and will manage a buffer between his rivals before that stage comes. At the end of this Tour, the next conspiracy theory will be that Lance and Jani Brajkovic switched identities.

So what do we have here:

1st  Lance Armstrong

2nd Bradley Wiggins

3rd  Cadel Evans

4th Ivan Basso

5th Frank Schleck

Disclaimer: The author and this site are not responsible for financial or any other kind of personal loss that might                        come from using the information provided. But don't let that stop you from betting the farm, you                         know this shit is legit.