The Daily Race: Tour de France Stage 14

Stage 14: Revel — Ax-3-Domaines
What is it? Mountain stage!
Got Climbs? Mountain top finish. Port de Pailhères (HC), Ax 3 Domaines (Cat. 1)
Yellow Jersey Battle: Go time!
Ideal Rider: Andy Schleck. One of the few climbers able to match Alberto Contador at his best, Andy Schleck wants to win the Tour. Here is one place where he could.
@Gavia: Mmm, mountains. Now, the real Tour begins.
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The Climbs
Port de Pailhères
Ax-3-Domaines (Plateau de Bonascre)
This stage between Revel and Ax-3-Domaines is not the hardest mountain stage ever, but the back-to-back climbs near the finish should provide ample opportunity for the bigs to strut their stuff. We're getting down to the wire at this Tour de France. The Tour organizers have tried to make the Pyrénées the grande finale of this year's race. Have they succeeded? We'll find out soon enough.
This stage starts out deceptively easily with 100 kilometers of rolling terrain. All the climbing comes at the end, and there is no space for recovery between the hors catègorie Port de Pailhères and the category 1 Ax-3-Domaines. The climbs in the Pyrénées run steeper than the Alps, which tend to be long and relatively gradual. The Port de Pailhères climbs 15.5 kilometers at an average gradient of 7.9%. As is often the case, the average gradient deceives. The majority of the Pailhères climbs at 9%, and sections pitch up to 11% and 12%. There is nothing easy about this climb. The final ascent to Ax-3-Domaines is shorter at 7.8%, but it's also steeper with an average gradient of 8.2%. The majority of this final climb hangs in 10% range, with a brief section hitting nearly 12%. Into the domain of the climbers we go. There will be suffering. Who will wear Yellow in Paris? We should have a better idea after this romp in the high mountains.
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Riblon Scores Big Win as GC stalemates
Christophe Riblon of AG2R survived alone from a nine-man breakaway to win the 14th stage of the Tour de France, climbing well all the way to the finish at Ax-3-Domaines. Behind him the battle raged on for podium spots on the category-1 climb, though mostly it was shadowboxing ahead of bigger days, including Thursday's decisive event. Denis Menchov of Rabobank took a very strong second on the stage, showing great form and his historic knack for riding well in the Pyrenees, on both sides of the border with Spain. However, Sammy Sachez, currently third overall, matched Menchov's accelerations and held off the Russian for that hold on his spot. Read on...
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Okay, so what does the Community crystal ball say?
My opinion is that Andy took the Jersey too early and has burned matches that he will need this week…I see this as advantage Alberto as the peloton reaches the shorter, steeper slopes that does not suit Andy- I recognise that the whole “does not suit me” thinng could be Riis PsyOps, but INHO these are Astana’s options…
Put baby blue in the break of the day, and force Saxo to chase until Alberto breaks to the left and launches a patented attack….OR…
Now that the Vino has been sated, leave the break alone and use him to drive the pace of the peloton up the last two mountains and then ask Senor Navarro to go to the front and unzip his jersey (uh-oh!)…OR…
Bide time and wait for one of the pure climbers to try to cover themselves in glory and use their impetus to launch a winning attack, probably on the 10% slopes at k3 of the final climb…
And Andy?
Well, he could go on a Merkxian/Hinaultian type of all out solo attack (to be closely marked by Astana)
Hold his team back, and force Rabo, Caisse, Euskatel, Katusha etc to work, but that of course risks the MJ going on down the road, given the poor motivation of other teams to work to defend a jersey they don’t have and depending on the quality in the break…
He grinds his team into the mountain and use them until they completely explode and try to set up an attack that he uses to ride AC off his wheel…High risk-high reward stuff on day 1 of 4 hard days in the Pyreenes on the shorter, steeper slopes that don’t seem to suit him…
He can limit losses to any concerted AC attacks in his fevoured terrain, and then pull out the TT of his life to hold the MJ through to Paris….
Okay….
Am I missing anything? What other options are on the table?
On to tomorrow!
I don't think Andy took Yellow too early
as I think he needs any time he can get on Contador as he probably needs 2 minutes at least before the Time Trial.
I think he’s in a tough spot, but maybe on a couple of these very long steady climbs he can compete with Contador and pull ahead …. as they suit him more than a short, steep climb like Mende.
But I am not holding my breath, I think Contador is just that much stronger.
In any case, the next several stages will be fantastic. And it will be interesting to see who attacks beyond the two GC leaders.
moo
My 2 cents
Astana > Saxo in the mountains. Andy has to do something to shed the Astana domestiques ASAP, preferrably on Pailheres. It might mean that he has to humself attack there not to drop Contador, but to drop Navarro, Vino, etc… Whether he would have fuel for another attack later on the Ax climb remains to be seen.
For Contador, if we follow the conspiracy theories of the last few days, there is another weapon in his arsenal and his name is JRod… Have him go up the mountain and then bridge and pull together for a massive gain… We shall see !
I’ll sure be in front of the race by 9am to see the Tour unfold.
by FrenchKheldar on Jul 17, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
As a J-Rod fan, I hope you are right...
This could be where we find out if he is more than just a specialist. (OK, we already know he’s not much of a TT guy, but it will be interesting to see how he does on the BIG steep climbs as opposed to the small ones.)
Cazzo, it's going to be a bloodbath! The Mortirolo is a horror, absolutely interminable. -- Michele Scarponi
Here's where things get EEnteresting
since Contador also appears to get along well with Sanchez.
Now . . . which team would you want to work with in the Pyrenees?
Katusha or Euskaltel?
Both are pretty crappy at this years Tour to tell the truth
I think he rather just work with his much better Astana teammates, Eusky seems to be saving it for the Vuelta.
Vamos Alberto!
Quitter's People United member # 42
Plus Sanchez has GC ambitions
Podium in Paris is nothing to sneeze at. JRod got what he was looking for with a stage win. He’ll go for another one sure, but I’m not sure he cares finishing 10th rather than 7th…
by FrenchKheldar on Jul 17, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Euskaltel will want to please their fan base
who most certainly will be out in full force, and Sam San seems good, if ever a deal could be made, doesn’t it seem logical that this would be the one (not saying it will).
"You know if there's any contact at all Cristiano Ronaldo's gonna go down...maybe even just a puff of wind"
clearly astana has the mountain goat thing down
but Saxo’s strength is experience and grit, and their performance has been more tested than Astana. They don’t have a Stuey to control the flat ground pace well, nor do they have guys like Cance and Jens! who are crucial allies. CAS and Fuglsang are well rested and probably ready to help tomorrow. Andy doesn’t need to shed the domestiques, i don’t see why that will matter, they were all gone when Andy got his stage win. It’ll be up to who wants it more and who’s got the legs to get the job done, I don’t think either team is head and shoulders above the other.
"You know if there's any contact at all Cristiano Ronaldo's gonna go down...maybe even just a puff of wind"
Andy couldn't have taken the jersey too early
He has to put as much time into Contador as he can. Just sucks for him that Contador is a better climber and a much better time trialist. He’s gonna need some big luck.
I think we’ll see them be rather reserved tomorrow, waiting until late to attack and relatively minor gaps. Stage 17 Schleck will have to throw caution to the wind and attack early on that last climb and just hope that Contador cracks before he does.
by whistlingmountain on Jul 17, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
If he has burned too many matches getting and keeping yellow
Then he doesn’t have enough total to wear yellow in Paris.
You. Are. So. Right.
I am soooo stupid! The only question is how big a time gap Gerald will open up.
Depends on the amazing lead-out from Leenoos he gets
btw he has truly become a lead-out man, talk about tanking.
Vamos Alberto!
Quitter's People United member # 42
ah . . . but there's always Mick Rogers to keep him company . . .
Dude needs to find another team or give up pretending to be a gc hope.

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