The Daily Race: Tour de France Stage 16
by Jen See on Jul 19, 2010 6:45 PM EDT
in Tour de France
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Stage 16: Bagnères-de-Luchon — Pau
What is it? Classic mountain death march.
Got Climbs? Four major climbs, including the Col de Tourmalet (HC) and Col de l'Aubisque (HC)
Yellow Jersey Battle: In an odd twist, the final climb summits with more than 60 kilometers to race. While the climbing is plenty difficult enough to blow apart the race, the long road to the finish may nullify any advantage gained by the climbers.
Ideal Rider: Breakaway day! The Basque riders always show up for the Pyrénées stages, and it's all but certain that an Euskaltel-Euskadi climber will ride the break today.
@Gavia: Why is the final climb so far from the finish of this stage? Really, I don't pretend to know. Maybe it all turn out to be a stroke of genius.
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The Climbs
Col de Peyresourde
Col d'Aspin
Col du Tourmalet (from Ste-Marie-de-Campan)
Col de l'Aubisque
This stage starts climbing from the start, and unlike your average, garden variety mountain stage, the climbing is stacked at the beginning of the stage. Then... not much happens. It's 60 kilometers of racing from the summit of the Col de l'Aubisque to the finish. The teams will have to use The Brain to figure out how to eek out an advantage from this stage lay-out. It's like a fun-house mirror mountain stage, all backwardslike, though maybe not quite upside down.
Still, there's nothing easy about this stage between Bagnères-de-Luchon and Pau. Is it me? Or does the Tour always go through Pau? No, it's not me, the Tour has visited Pau on 62 occasions. That's like a lot and stuff. The stage passes over four major climbs: Col de Peyresourde, Col d'Aspin, Col du Tourmalet, and Col de l'Aubisque. Both the Tourmalet and l'Aubisque are hors catègorie. The Tourmalet climbs for 17 kilometers and much of the time the gradients hover around 9%-10%. That'll leave a mark.
The Col de l'Aubisque is easier, but not by much. It is longer than the Tourmalet at 29.2 kilometers, but the ramps are less steep and there are sections of nearly flat riding. Still, as Cadel Evans showed in 2005, the Col de l'Aubisque offers the chance for a big attack, should anyone wish to take it. Sure, it's 60 kilometers to the finish. Have fun storming the castle! In 1969, Eddy Merckx attacked on the descent off the Col de l'Aubisque and stayed away 180 kilometers to the finish. I mean, if Eddy can to it...
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Post-Race Happy Hour
Fédrigo Nabs Sixth French Victory
Cruelty comes in large servings at the Tour de France, and today's helping was dished out to Carlos Barredo of Quick Step, who departed a nine-man breakaway (including one Lance Armstrong) on the downhill run to Pau with over 40 kilometers left to race, only to be caught by the seemingly disorganized eight-man chase inside the last two km. Frenchman Pierrick Fédrigo of Bbox Bouygues Télécom registered the sixth stage win for a French rider... Read More.
More Tour Features
Will Previews the Pyrénées, a closer look at tomorrow's climbs
Know Your Tour: Miss Manners, Where Are You?
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This could be interesting
My first reaction in looking at this stage is that it’s a snoozer like the Tourmalet stage last year where Fedrigo won over Jennifer Grey and the peloton rode tempo over the mountains. But this Tour is of a different temperament than last year’s: riders are more willing to attack and I think we’ll have attacks here and not just wait for the next day.
The problem is how to attack with that 60 km descent and flat finish. Obviously someone like Andy Schleck or Samuel Sanchez aren’t gonna TT 60 km alone and stay away. They or anyone else needs help. Help can either come from a teammate who got into the break and is waiting or a couple riders together who have common cause to drill the ending while hoping that no larger group can organize itself for the chase. The former seems like a better strategy (the later is a matter of luck) and so it will be interesting to see if Astana drills the start (which is a cat 1 climb) to keep various Saxo’s and Euskies and the odd Rabo’s from the break.
Alley Oop
Good stage for the Alley Oop tactic. Get a team-mate or several into the early break and try to bridge the GC boy on up. Team timey to the finish. Of course, if we’ve thought of it, the Einsteins in the team cars probably have too. I’d love to see the first hour of tomorrow’s stage. Might be more interesting than the last hour, actually.
apparently
Today’s first 60 kilometers or so were stupid fast. So, there’s going to be some tired legs tomorrow. That could make for some interesting racing among the lead riders also, if the teams are blown to bits early on.
It could be fun with a small peloton only consisting of the GC riders and top helpers
but that only happens in fairytales :(
eurosport coverage begins
at 10am UK time. so i’d imagine feeds will be around from then…although that’s like 2am pacific isn’t it? no one’s that dedicated.
"I was watching the Tour de France in 2005, just being a fan again. I thought, ‘you're a fucking idiot. You're a bike fan who gets to ride the Tour de France.'"
- david millar
For those who are too lazy to get up at 2 AM I can reveal
that there is an early breakaway attempt and Pineau and Charteau both try to get in it. Have a nice lie in.
Whew!
I feel MUCH better.
BUT
Did Hushovd or Petacchi get in the break to contest those vital sprint points after the climbs? Or did just Cavendish make it?
Look at where the sprint intermediates are located
the first one comes on the descent of the final cmilb.
The second one—I know, this will come as a shocker—comes after the first one.
So there will be no green jersey action tomorrow, apart from Ale-Jet making sure he stays in the grupetto & not outside of the time cut.
http://www.bah.net/
by dees ees en drama on Jul 19, 2010 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
I had thought that. If Andy wants to try and take something back, but has to carry any advantage over 50k of descent or flat, they need to put Jens! in the break, or Nicki Sorensen so that he can get across to them and get dragged to the line.
What might be cool
Is if Saxo AND Astana AND Rabo AND Euskaltel all get someone in a break and those domestiques are sitting up top of Tourmalet waiting for their leaders, like in a relay race.
By the way, there are 90 KOM points available in tomorrow's stage
There are also 73 in stage 17, then that’s it. 40 of the stage 17 points are the mountaintop finish, meaning the GC guys will probably snap those up. There are currently 31 riders within 90 points of the maillot pois, meaning that a lot of people could feasibly walk away with the polka dots.
http://www.bah.net/
by dees ees en drama on Jul 19, 2010 4:07 PM EDT reply actions
Sadly Bjarne seems quite clear that no gains can be made tomorrow
Only chance to make up time is Thursday on Tourmalet. He usually doesn’t sandbag with these statements and CAS echoed this opinion in his post stage interview today.
So this is in danger of turning into a snoozer like ursula says. I suppose we might hope that Rabo or Euskaltel think differently and light it up but I fear not.
Maybe tomorrow is not for Schleck, but...
… geez, can’t someone try to make this stage interesting, apart from a breakaway of guys who are over half an hour behind the maillot jaune?
Maybe someone 5-10 minutes down on GC — Leipheimer, Hesjedal, Kreuziger, Basso, Sastre — can go up the road with a teammate and make Astana and Saxo chase?
C’mon, guys, make Astana and Saxo worry about the other teams in the race.
MJB
Might work, except that he is Menchov's teammate
Astana, Saxo, and Euskatel shouldn’t let Gesink go off the front at all. Have to be wary of the possibility that Gesink would be up the road waiting for Menchov to bridge up and then attack.
Sigh. Who are we kidding. Our best hope for excitement on this stage is for Vino to get in the break and then we can all wonder if he is attacking to help Bert or take time out of him. :)
MJB
He might get caught in your throat..
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Gesink would be like fish bones..
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
And I could imagine the noise of him coming up would sound like, "Gesink" in a guttural way.
Sort of like “Gollum”
aargh... I feel a little bit sick now..
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Evans!
Maybe?
Possibly?
It would be good to watch, you have to admit….
I know, I know, unlikely to happen.
But if….
"Age and treachery will overcome youth and skill" - Fausto Coppi
that would be cool.
i’d love to see evans go on a raid. i don’t think it’s all that likely now, but it would make me smile for sure.
The climbs are too early
its only good for the breakaway tomorrow. The only interesting thing to look for will be a fringe top ten guy going on the break, trying to gain real time.
"You know if there's any contact at all Cristiano Ronaldo's gonna go down...maybe even just a puff of wind"
That sucks
What was that Alps stage in 2007? The one that Soler won? There was some alley-ooping going on there. Lots of fun.
I sure hope we don’t see a procession tomorrow.
+1
But I think some other teams are going to have to prod Bjarne to get the lazy old bear dancing.
(Liquigas, I’m looking at you)
Nobody wants to see me dance
I am certain of three things in life and that is number two
"Do you think we are a bunch a girls?...Go and ride some cobbles and you’ll definately know that we don’t discuss perfume and shaving cream." - Dom
I call sandbagging
by the non-sandbagger.
Saxo has to try something crazy tomorrow. Andy needs two days of time gains. And I think time gains are possible if the field is blown to smithereens by the top of the Tourmalet, and worse by the end of the Aubisque.
If Floyd Landis’ journey taught us anything useful, it is that a mad drug-fueled break can succeed if the peloton is dismembered and all you have by the last climb is a bunch of guys strung out riding on their own. Can a clean solo break work? I think they’ve gotta find out.
by Mr 60 Percent on Jul 19, 2010 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
only reason that worked
is because the teams were so disorganized in general. they screwed up half a dozen stages in that tour.
There’s no way anyone meaningful will get time with teams like Astana, Saxo, and even Rabobank this year.
by whistlingmountain on Jul 19, 2010 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Saxo can't afford to sacrifice domestiques like Landis did
IIRC, two or three of Landis’ teammates abandoned the race before the end of that stage because they were so blown by the pace that Floyd (and his T-patch) set from the start.
And, Landis didn’t have to ride 60 flat km solo after blowing up the peloton in the mountains.
Only way someone can make a gap stick over those flat 60 km is by having one or more teammates along and basically riding a team time trial to the finish.
MJB
Agree with all that
But they have to try something. The modification to Landis, apart from the whiskey shots, would be sending Jens! or Fuglsang in the early break.
by Mr 60 Percent on Jul 19, 2010 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Another possibility
Is to convince other riders it is worthwile to work together (bribe, stage victory, etc)
Robert Gesink on the difference between football and cycling: "For us it's a lot harder to get yellow"
For what it is worth
I think the 60km flat is due to $$$ and logistics. They need a good place to end the stage, and Pau was prepared to pay for the privelege
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
The Tour was smart to make the next day a rest day
it might give some guys more of an incentive to attack tomorrow and not worry about being gassed for the Tourmalet.
Vamos Alberto!
Quitter's People United member # 42
Almost the same as...
Stage 16, 1999 – today with the adding of Peyresourde.
Van de Wouver! Salmon! Van de Wouver! Salmon!
Answering my own question: Lance and Vino did...
Lance (6th) and Vino (28th) were in the top 30 in Pau in 2010 as well as 1999.
Aerts was 61st, finishing by himself 8:22 behind Fedrigo.
MJB
This stage is going to have more fire works than any stage yet.
It’s going to hurt right from the start. There’s going to be more cramping in this stage for the guys trying to win or compete for jerseys than anything weve seen. AC is going to have a slightly off day and everyone is going to yell… KARMA!
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
that sounds fun.
where do i sign up? actually, i don’t really care if contador has a good day or bad, but fireworks would be fun times.
So are the fans just going to shoot fireworks as AC and Schleck mark each other? Well at least we will get a show somehow...
Charteau v. Pineau v. Anybody who has no G.C. or team obligations and can climb is what I see tomorrow
Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!
by Vlaanderen90 on Jul 19, 2010 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't karma supposed to be about a divine plan?
(which I reject a priori). This would just be human revenge or strategic plotting.
Ceci n'est pas une signature.
Maybe Caisse will make the race?
I’m fishing here. But on Madeline, Lulu and Josy got in the break. Perhaps the Caisse-Shack fight for the Team prize might liven up tomorrow in the way small pebbles falling can start an avalanche. Come on! Work with me!
If both teams get good riders in a decent break
and get caught around the top of the Tourmalet or on the Aubisque, I can see RS (Horner?) working for Andy and Caisse (Plaza?) working for Contador.
Now that would be interesting.
Where’s Mauricio Ardila when you need him?
by Mr 60 Percent on Jul 19, 2010 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I think RS shut the door on that competition today
But that doesn’t mean we couldn’t get a battle for who gets in the break.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
My Dream
Lance was waiting for this day. He and Horner go on the break. Levi attacks on the last climb reconnects at the bottom and off they go. That would be a dangerous team time trial. Cancellara does the same thing for Andy. Probability about 0, but what a way for Lance to go out if he could drag Levi to near the lead.
Lance will win tomorrow
You heard it here first, unless someone else already said it up above, in which case you didn’t hear it here first.
"Do you think we are a bunch a girls?...Go and ride some cobbles and you’ll definately know that we don’t discuss perfume and shaving cream." - Dom
DNS Bram Tankink
Too sick to continue.
Other Rabo-related news. Astana is interested in Menchov. With Gesink, Mollema and Kruijswijk as options in the TdF2011 chances are slim the Russian will be riding for Rabo next year.
Robert Gesink on the difference between football and cycling: "For us it's a lot harder to get yellow"
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