The Daily Race: Tour de France Stage 19
by Jen See on Jul 23, 2010 8:23 PM EDT
in Tour de France
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Stage 19: Bordeaux — Pauillac
What is it? Long flat time trial, 52 kilometers against the watch.
Got Climbs? Nope.
Yellow Jersey Battle: Last chance to win the Tour, today we learn who will wear Yellow in Paris. Only eight seconds separate Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck, but Contador has always ridden better against the watch. Meanwhile, Denis Menchov will chase Samuel Sánchez for the final podium step. Sánchez has 30 seconds advantage over the Russian.
Ideal Rider: Tony Martin. At the Tour de Suisse, Martin beat World Champion Fabian Cancellara in the final time trial.
@Gavia: The clock, she is cruel, and time waits for no man.
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This year's Tour boasts only one long time trial, which is something of a rarity in recent Tour history. More typically, the race includes two long time trials, much to the dismay of the climbers. At 52 kilometers, this time trial runs over almost entirely flat terrain between Bordeaux and Pauillac. The course begins in the city center and runs along the Gironde river into the rich vineyard lands that surround Bordeaux. The finish in Pauillac is not far from the famed vineyards of the Haut-Médoc.
The riders will have no time for wine-tasting, though, as this test is easily long enough to alter the overall standings. No one will come from tenth to take the Yellow Jersey, but certainly it's possible for an on-form rider to move up the general in 52 kilometers of racing. That's a long time alone in the wind. Typically, the general classification riders finish better in these third week tests than the time trial specialists, so World Champion Fabian Cancellara is not necessarily the favorite for the stage victory. If the climbers haven't used the high mountain stages in the Pyrénées to cement their advantages, they could find the Tour slipping away from them on the flat roads of Bordeaux. The race for the Yellow Jersey ends here, and by the time all the riders reach Pauillac, we will know who has won this year's Tour de France.
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Alberto Contador of Astana got a real scare from Andy Schleck of Saxo Bank today, seeing his eight second advantage nearly disappear on the road of the 53km time trial today in the early stages. But Contador had plenty left in the end and reclaimed seconds as the race wore on, resulting in Contador winning the Tour de France for the third time in four years. Schleck's performance was an upset, or maybe it was the high expectations for Contador, but either way it made for great drama on the road, and it failed to put to rest the debate over Contador's attack on stage 16 when Schleck lost 39" to a chain drop. Ultimately, though, while Schleck was inspired, Contador rode a very smart race, not panicking and riding better over the latter half of the race. Read on!
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Historical records for some riders for the last TT in the Tour
Below I have most of the main TT guys and GC contenders for the last three years in the last TT. Below that I have the top 20 for each of those years.
Cancellara
2009- 2nd, 3 seconds off the win
2008-2nd, 21 seconds behind Schumacher
2007-12th, 2:55 off the lead
Leipheimer
2009-crashed out ahead of the time
2008-did not race
2007-1st
J-Rod
This is his 1st Tour
Gesink
2009-crashed out ahead of time
2008-did not race
2007-did not race
Contador
2009- 1st
2008-did not race
2007-5th, 2:18 off the lead
Lovkvist
2009-did not race
2008-9th, 2:06 off the lead
2007-32nd, 5:04 off the lead
Menchov
2009-78th, 4:12 off the lead (was not in the GC hunt)
2008-6th 1:55 off the lead
2007-did not race
Hesjedal
2009-42nd, 2L51 off the lead (was not in GC hunt)
2008-13th, 2:36 off the lead (one place behind Sastre)
2007-not in the race
Samu
2009- did not race
2008-21st, 3:14 off the lead
2007-not in the race
Wiggins
2009-6th, 42 seconds off the lead
2008-did not race
2007-team withdrew prior to stage, but he did finish 4th on stage 13, the Albi TT
Lulu
2009- 7th, 43 seconds off the lead
2008-35th, 4:13 off the lead
2007-not in the race
T-Mart
2009-11th, 1:04 of the lead
2008-did not race
2007-did not race
Grabsch
2009-18th, 1:38 off the lead
2008-did not race
2007-22nd, 4:08 of the lead
Andy Schleck
2009- 21st, 1:44 off the lead
2008-30th, 4:02 off the lead
2007-did not race
Van Den Broeck
2009-32nd, 2:25 off the lead
2008-did not race
2007-did not race
Frank Schleck (to give a comparison with mediocrity with someone who had something at stake)
2009-35th, 2:34 off the lead
2008-54th, 5:38 off the lead
2007-36th, 5:18 off the lead
Kreuziger
2009-53rd, 3:14 off the lead
2008-23rd, 3:21 off the lead
2007-did not race
2009 top 20
1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 0:48:31
2 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank 0:00:03
3 Mikhail Ignatiev (Rus) Team Katusha 0:00:15
4 Gustav Erik Larsson (Swe) Team Saxo Bank 0:00:32
5 David Millar (GBr) Garmin – Slipstream 0:00:40
6 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin – Slipstream 0:00:42
7 Luis León Sánchez Gil (Spa) Caisse d’Epargne 0:00:43
8 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Agritubel 0:00:45
9 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0:00:53
10 David Zabriskie (USA) Garmin – Slipstream 0:01:01
11 Tony Martin (Ger) Team Columbia – HTC 0:01:04
12 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence – Lotto 0:01:14
13 Maxime Monfort (Bel) Team Columbia – HTC 0:01:18
14 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Quick Step 0:01:19
15 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Team Katusha 0:01:27
16 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana 0:01:29
17 Stef Clement (Ned) Rabobank 0:01:37
18 Bert Grabsch (Ger) Team Columbia – HTC 0:01:38
19 Michael Rogers (Aus) Team Columbia – HTC
20 Kim Kirchen (Lux) Team Columbia – HTC 0:01:41
2008 top 20
1 Stefan Schumacher (Ger) Shimano – Memory Corp 01:03:50 (49.83km/h)
2 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank +0:00:21
3 Kim Kirchen (Lux) Team Columbia – HTC +0:01:01
4 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Garmin – Slipstream +0:01:05
5 David Millar (GBr) Garmin – Slipstream +0:01:37
6 Denis Menchov (Rus) iBanesto.com +0:01:55
7 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon – Lotto +0:02:05
8 Sebastian Lang (Ger) Silence – Lotto +0:02:19
9 Bernhard Kohl (Aut) ELK Haus Radteam +0:02:21
10 George Hincapie (USA) Team Columbia – HTC +0:02:28
11 Thomas Lövkvist (Swe) Team Columbia – HTC +0:02:29
12 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) CSC – Tiscali +0:02:34
13 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin – Slipstream +0:02:36
14 Danny Pate (USA) Health Net Pro Cycling Team Presented by Maxxis +0:02:54
15 Jens Voigt (Ger) Team Saxo Bank +0:02:58
16 Chris Froome (Ken) Barloworld +0:03:00
17 Amaël Moinard (Fra) Cofidis, Le Credit en Ligne +0:03:04
18 Kanstantsin Siutsou (Blr) Team Columbia – HTC +0:03:07
19 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Quick Step +0:03:10
20 Joost Posthuma (Ned) Rabobank +0:03:13
2007 top 20
1 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Astana 01:02:44 (53.09km/h)
2 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon – Lotto +0:00:51
3 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Illes Balears – Banesto +0:01:56
4 Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr) Astana +0:02:01
5 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana +0:02:18
6 José Ivan Gutierrez Palacios (Spa) Illes Balears – Banesto +0:02:27
7 George Hincapie (USA) Team Columbia – HTC +0:02:33
8 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Caisse d’Epargne +0:02:36
9 Leif Hoste (Bel) Predictor – Lotto +0:02:48
10 Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau (Spa) AG2r Prévoyance +0:02:50
11 Thomas Dekker (Ned) Silence – Lotto +0:02:55
12 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank
13 Kim Kirchen (Lux) Team Columbia – HTC +0:03:00
14 Linus Gerdemann (Ger) TEAM COLUMBIA +0:03:17
15 Stefan Schumacher (Ger) Shimano – Memory Corp
16 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) CSC – Tiscali +0:03:24
17 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Illes Balears – Caisse d’Epargne +0:03:37
18 Sébastien Rosseler (Bel) Quick Step +0:03:46
19 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Garmin – Slipstream +0:03:58
20 Haimar Zubeldia Aguirre (Spa) Astana +0:04:06
Bert needs a repeat of the 07 TT to get himself that Lanterne
Vamos Alberto!
Quitter's People United member # 42
Good question
I know that Jacky Durand won the combativity award the year he was Lanterne rouge.
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Jul 23, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
In different Tours they have but from what I can see, none of them have won in the same Tour that they have been Lanterne
Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!
by Vlaanderen90 on Jul 23, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait, I found one...1947 Pietro Tarchini
He finished the race over 7 hours behind Robic but won stage 18 that year
Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!
by Vlaanderen90 on Jul 23, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Vlaand
How the fuck did you track down that fact?
"Woof, woof, woof! That's my other dog imitation."
There are two LR winners
that won de Ronde van Vlaanderen.
Robert Gesink on the difference between football and cycling: "For us it's a lot harder to get yellow"
Horner
Looks like Chris Horner should keep 10th place on GC barring a mechanical or a terrible time trial — he is more than 2 minutes ahead of Luis Sanchez and Ruben Plaza. Horner has a shot at 9th (needs 26 seconds on Kreuziger, who is good but not great in ITTs), but Horner is unlikely to beat Hesjedal by 1:20, which is what he would need to move into 8th.
MJB
I doubt Horner will beat Kreuziger. 10th is probably where he stays unless he had a cruddy TT
He was 1’55 back of Contador at the long Dauphine TT, and that was with a hill. He either seems to be “on” in the TT or just off the pace.
Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!
by Vlaanderen90 on Jul 23, 2010 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I dunno
I like Horner there too. His form is better than Kreuziger’s at the moment and he looks like he has a better history in flat TT’s.
How so?
Kreuz is ahead of him on GC and didn’t have the benefit of gaining 7 minutes in a break.
Vamos Alberto!
Quitter's People United member # 42
only 21 seconds . . .
and Horner has a motor.
Kreuz is still a kid . . .
that spot, and Sanchez’s podi spot are in jeopardy.
Honer has a motor...for shorter TTs...they seem equally matched here.
And Kreuziger is 24…he isn’t a baby. He’s been pro for 5 years now. It will just see how Horner’s TT form is…last time he did TTs as long as this, it was in ’07 and he had mixed results. He has worked hard here so the first time check will show how he is going.
Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!
by Vlaanderen90 on Jul 23, 2010 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions
He probably gave up a minute or two that first day in the mountains
hanging with Lance, before being turned loose. He was playing the good teammate I’m aware, just too bad it cost him a couple of spots.
There have been several old guys riding very well this tour – Moreau, Jens!, Horner. I’d include Lance and Carlos in there as well, based strictly on age on not where they initially intended on being. 38 is old to be hauling your ass all over France.
"Woof, woof, woof! That's my other dog imitation."
My picks to move up a place in GC
It does feel like most GC places are fairly secure. But to me the following guys should be as nervous as the sheep we saw on the way to Tourmalet the other day:
1) Samu losing his spot to Mench. I give Mench a 60% shot at overtaking Sam San.
2) J-Rod losing his place to Ryder. J-Rod just does not like flat TT’s. He’s got 2+ minutes and while Hesjedal is not a great chronoman, he’s good enough to threaten the mountain goat. 40% chance this happens.
3) Horner over Kreuziger. I give this a 75% chance of happening.
4) Lulu over Kreuziger. Depends on what Lulu has in the tank. Last year, being a domestique, he had a lot. But a 2:30 gap? Unlikely, but possible: a 15% chance.
5) Levi overtaking Plaza. Unless Levi is totally worn out, this is gonna happen. 90% chance.
6) Kloden over Plaza. Same deal. 85% chance.
7) Kloden over Levi. IF Levi is tired: 15%.
8) Vino overtaking Roche. A 2 minute gap here. 55% likely
9) Lofkvist overtaking Gadret: Bank on it: 95%
10) Lofkvist overtaking Vino depends on how tired Vino is: 25% chance
11) Lofkvist over Roche. 2 and a half minutes here….sure! 75%. 65% chance the Swede passes Roche on the road. Sorry Nicky.
Results from Beijing.
Time gaps to Fabian
Contador 1.18
Sam San 2.25
Gesink 2.51
Ryder 3.30
Menchov 3.59
Avatar in honour of #13, Fabian "I'm not superstitious" Cancellara
Weather forecast Bordeaux.
Wind west 5 km in the morning. Increasing to wnw 20 km afternoon.
Route west north west by north. Advantage early start times.
Avavtar in honour of #13, Fabian "I'm not superstitious" Cancellara
Correction. Route north north west
Avatar in honour of #13, Fabian "I'm not superstitious" Cancellara
this is going to be over before i wake up
martin – 10:57
cance- 11:21
Is it not time for the live thread?
Potential top 5 rider on the stage about to start. :)
You mean O'Grady... or is it Grabsch of whom you speak? His Lanterne Rouge is in danger..
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Is that Stu Ungar O'grady of whom you speak? I thought he had retired years ago.
No, I am talking about the young talented springbok Bert Grabsch, of course. I think he has a lucid future.
Tony martin is about to start... Grabsch is doing very badly at keeping the Lanterne Rouge...
McEwen for instance is 3 minutes down on him. David Millar is second so far and he’s 43 seconds down.
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Why not? I'm 'resting' for one more week, so I'm ready to roll..
Grabsh’s time is 44’13"…. Phil will be most unhappy..
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Lanterne Rouge has now changed hands
Malori losing over 3 minutes at 36.2km time check and races solidly into last place.
These guys must be so tired... some of these times are truly slow..
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
They must look at this stage and think, 'No more! Enough!'
Martin is 41 seconds ahead of Grabsch at the first checkpoint…
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Grabsch finished - 1.02.44 (average speed 49.7km/h)
Martin through first check point – new leader by 41 seconds. (First rider to average over 50km/h).
Massive gaps between the early starters – over 7 minutes to some
Cancellara now out on the course
thank god you're here.. I've been reading the ticker wrongly... how is that possible?
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Martin increases his lead at the second check
Now 1.03 ahead (and averaging 50.3km/h). Cancellara through first check – 9 seconds down on Tony M.
Tjalingi out on course riding well – getting the data to send to Menchov. Millar finished 2.32 down on Grabsch.
Spartacus
Only Contador can beat that now IMO
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