Stage Predictor Game: This is the race of truth(stage 19)

by Phil H. on Jul 23, 2010 11:59 AM EDT

Yeah I just stole a Liggettism. But I am a Phil so it is perfectly acceptable right? But for once the cheesy phrase is true, Alberto should be the better TTist and win the Tour today but maybe Andy has something special to show. Probably doesn't matter at all when it comes to this game anyway as it is all about picking the stage winners.

Profile:

Map:

What Christian Prudhomme says:

This is the only time-trial stage of this edition. The route will wind its way through the streets of Bordeaux for fifteen kilometres, with avenues and buildings to shelter the riders. Then suddenly, they will leave the city and arrive in the open countryside, amidst the vineyards, because they will be passing through the famous landmarks of the Haut Médoc wine-making region, such as Margaux, passing one château after another. The finish is magnificent. On the face of it, this time trial will merely fine-tune the classifications; there is no way the seventeenth-placed rider will grab first place. The last time trial when the Yellow Jersey changed hands on the penultimate day was in 2006, when Landis (3rd at the time behind Sastre) triumphed. However, since then, the American has been disqualified due to a positive doping test.

GC and Riders list

all info from letour.fr

Time to make prediction:

Until 10:25 CEST; 4:25am ET; 1:25am PT(~~I'll be pretty lenient on this time seeing the first guys off will likely not factor but you gotta predict before the big boys start~~ I'll give you guys until the top of the hour, so 11:00 CEST)

Yesterday's summary: LooseHorse picked a perfect podium and wins the stage with 10 points. JustJoshinYa takes a 1 point lead in the overall

Stage Scores:

LooseHorse-10

thebongolian-8

3 tied with7

Overall Scores:

JustJoshinYa-58

dees ees en drama-57

Ozzie5365-53

full scores here

Tweet Comment 76 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

Uh-oh...

It’s pretty close. Don’t drop a chain, Josh.

by swells on Jul 23, 2010 12:29 PM EDT reply actions

My declared goal is to podium - I definitely lack the confidence to hold out for the win...

by JustJoshinYa on Jul 23, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

You want the podium!! Huh that is so tottally MY GOAL!!!!

'When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning' - Dr. Reiner Knizia

by bought with blood on Jul 23, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

This is going to be a good one.

swells
1-Contador
2-Hesjedal
3-Horner

by swells on Jul 23, 2010 12:38 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

I can't win anyway so screw the head

I am going with the heart
T. Martin
Cance
Bert

Vamos Alberto!
Quitter's People United member # 42

by Phil H. on Jul 23, 2010 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

You've been going with your head all this time?

And I’m beating you with 3 letter words, har har har.

"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton

by sminer on Jul 23, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I wouldn't have picked Cav all this time if I were not

but I never said my head was any good, I’m getting a head transplant before the next time I make this game.

Vamos Alberto!
Quitter's People United member # 42

by Phil H. on Jul 23, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Phil, your head is the best, You the one who come up with this game! The best invention since the wheel.

Hey! Calendar! Don’t lie to me. It is only July,3

by holmovka on Jul 23, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions

aww thank you

Vamos Alberto!
Quitter's People United member # 42

by Phil H. on Jul 23, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Bert.....you mean Grabsch?

Soli Deo Gloria

by LooseHorse on Jul 24, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Der Panzerwagen

1.Martin
2.Cancellara
3.Contador

by Triki on Jul 23, 2010 12:43 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Why is it that everytime you post

I think of Pierrick Fedrigo?

"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton

by sminer on Jul 23, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Because I have a picture of a nose as my avatar.

by Triki on Jul 23, 2010 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Sometimes I think of Steve Martin

from “Roxanne”. So what’s with the nose anyway?

"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton

by sminer on Jul 23, 2010 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions

It's a celebration of the Tour stage win of Le Nez de Marmalade,

who’s on my VDS.

by Triki on Jul 23, 2010 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Sry Wiggins for Bert pls.

1.Martin
2.Cancellara
3.Wiggins

by Triki on Jul 23, 2010 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

I can't help but pick this TT podium....I love me some Cance...

1. Fabulous, he’s done so much work, Fabian, so this choice is risky to me, Spartacus, but I just love him too much, Cancellara
(and yes, he deserves to have all 4 names)
2. Tony, is that a blue light special, T-Mart, nope, that was K-Mart, dude, Martin
3. Alberto, I really need to win a stage this year to prove this yellow is deserved, but damn, Tony and Fabian are fast, Contador

Fingers crossed

by JustJoshinYa on Jul 23, 2010 12:50 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

1 cance
2 lulu
3 levi

"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind

by umwolverine on Jul 23, 2010 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Why do you love Cance?
The Accountant wants to cash in like it’s tax day, and he’s made for stage 19
Tony Martin has legs that are more shot than Contador’s, but he’s still good at riding a bicycle in a straight line

http://www.bah.net/

by dees ees en drama on Jul 23, 2010 1:37 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

1. T-Mart
2. Cance
3. Menchov

by FrenchKheldar on Jul 23, 2010 1:37 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

i've lost my mind

1. Cance
2. Schleck
3. Wiggo

"You know if there's any contact at all Cristiano Ronaldo's gonna go down...maybe even just a puff of wind"

by agl on Jul 23, 2010 1:54 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Here goes I hate the third place but head beats heart this time...

I’ve come all this way and am getting punished for not picking Bahvendish in his first win!!!

1 Spartacus
2 Der Panzerwaggen
3 Contador

'When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning' - Dr. Reiner Knizia

by bought with blood on Jul 23, 2010 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Bert Grabsch?

Bold choice.

by Logy on Jul 23, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

der panzerwaggen = tony martin

"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind

by umwolverine on Jul 23, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Out with a flourish

Fabian
T-Mart
LiveStrong

by CelticPride on Jul 23, 2010 3:32 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

1. DZ…hoping there is enough evil left in the sideburns for a stage win
2. Contador…finishes hand in hand with Andy
3. Cancellara…sets early time
4. Sanchez….for fourth place I am keeping it ambiguous

by Logy on Jul 23, 2010 4:08 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

And you saying that Grabsch was the bold choice!

Hey! Calendar! Don’t lie to me. It is only July,3

by holmovka on Jul 23, 2010 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Bear from Bern

1. The Swiss Time Machine
2. A well rested Tony Martin (whose bigest problem is starting 13 places ahead of Fabian to provide those much needed splits)
3. Menchov

Wildcards: Z-man, Lance, The Lantern Rouge

by kiwi_dude on Jul 23, 2010 4:37 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

After tomorrow's TT, it will be The Former Lantern Rouge (me thinks)

by JustJoshinYa on Jul 23, 2010 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I will be elated if the another A replaces this A by many seconds.

Spartacus
Panzerwagen
Accountant

"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton

by sminer on Jul 23, 2010 5:15 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

who? Vino?

Alexandr….

"Last time I had a broken chain nobody waited for me. I had to chase all the freaking way to the finish. It is race!!" Alexandre Perez

by perezbike on Jul 23, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

ANDY SCHLECK

Seriously Andy, do it.

http://www.bah.net/

by dees ees en drama on Jul 23, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

The way he has surprised me already

I would not be surprised to see that Andy has improved dramatically in this discipline closing the gap down on Albert.

"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton

by sminer on Jul 23, 2010 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

From losing 3 to 2 minutes?

Vamos Alberto!
Quitter's People United member # 42

by Phil H. on Jul 23, 2010 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions

2min to 30 sec

will make next year really crazy fun

"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton

by sminer on Jul 23, 2010 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Or September?

yeah of course the Tour is more exciting but I really hope these two have on more go this year.

Vamos Alberto!
Quitter's People United member # 42

by Phil H. on Jul 23, 2010 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions

After today,

how potentially nail biting are these GT match ups going to be?

Now I see why Riis and Andy were so confident when Andy had the yellow with 41 secs. If Conta hadn’t wisely taken that time and the jersey away from Andy he may very well have lost today. I thought Conta was concerned about the Saxo camp confidence and that’s why he pounced when he had the opportunity. Good thing for Conta he did.

How was that 2min to 30 sec call, huh? I think Andy will definitely get Conta in one of these duels now. Anway I just couldn’t stomach Andy playing Ullrich.

"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton

by sminer on Jul 24, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd love love love that too...

alas, I fear it will not be true…

by JustJoshinYa on Jul 23, 2010 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Chrono

1. The Swiss Bear (I just cannot bet against him)
2. Wiggans (he has purpose: trying desesperately to give Sky just 1 win)
3. Menchov (he has a stronger purpose: the Podium. This always helps)

"Last time I had a broken chain nobody waited for me. I had to chase all the freaking way to the finish. It is race!!" Alexandre Perez

by perezbike on Jul 23, 2010 5:18 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

TT Truth

Swiss Tick Tock Cance
T Martin
B Wiggins

"Waar is die Idioot?" R. McEwen to F Dostoyevsky-Post Stage 6 2010

by frans verbiage on Jul 23, 2010 5:26 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

I would have gone with Wiggo

but I needed a vowel.

"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton

by sminer on Jul 23, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I like your style sminer.

If ya lose, blame it on the vowels.

by JustJoshinYa on Jul 23, 2010 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmmm

1. T-Mart
2. Flabian Cancellara
3. Menchov

Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!

by Vlaanderen90 on Jul 23, 2010 6:02 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Flabian!
Such disrespect, and for the Patron, too!

Actually…he was looking kinda skinny the other day…

by JustJoshinYa on Jul 23, 2010 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions

"The Patron"...meh though he is looking skinny. Can we say Lombardia run?

I actually got that from a CycleSport magazine from 2006 when they had to come up with 8 headlines featuring his name. Another absurd one was “A Fab time had by all: Every rider beats Cancellara in the Time Trial.”

Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!

by Vlaanderen90 on Jul 23, 2010 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Wait I need to change my 3rd place from Menchov

to DZ… he has done well over the long distance before

Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!

by Vlaanderen90 on Jul 24, 2010 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions

OK, This is next to last! Hold on guys and girls, we can do it!

1. Fabian ( Thinking: There are some skeptics left in PdC, how many times I have to prove my total TT dominance?)
2. T Mart ( Thinking: Actually about nothing, just pedaling very fast and staying aerodynamic )
3. Denis Menshov ( Thinking about Samu and Albertina, and singing Na Nana Na Na with heavy Russian accent)

Then. Alberto ( Thinking about Cameron Diaz, for some reason)
Then Andy ( Thinking: I know what I and Bear have in common, we are both want a revenge!)

Hey! Calendar! Don’t lie to me. It is only July,3

by holmovka on Jul 23, 2010 7:44 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

the patron!

cancellara
menchov
hesjedal

"Race radios in Cat 4?"

by gravel road on Jul 23, 2010 8:31 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Cancellara
Evans
Levi

Avatar in honour of #13, Fabian "I'm not superstitious" Cancellara

by fancan on Jul 23, 2010 8:58 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Colorado picks Stage 19

1. Tony Martin
2. Cancellara
3. Menchov

Alpe Du Huez is my favorite place on earth!!!!!!

by mrmorales on Jul 23, 2010 9:04 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Don't ask me how (or why) I did this...

Predicted stage winners with projected time gaps. Surprisingly, despite some scarry changes in times, no changes to placements for the top 10 in the GC.

1 Alberto Contador
2 Fabian Cancellara 0.33
3 Samuel Sánchez 1.09

4 Cadel Evans 1.18
5 David Millar 1.23
6 Levi Leipheimer 2.25
7 Robert Gesink 2.28
8 Michael Rogers 2.35
9 Ryder Hesjedal 2.47
10 Andreas Klöden 2.51
11 David Zabriskie 2.56
12 Tony Martin 3.06
13 Jurgen Van Den Broeck 3.13
14 Denis Menchov 3.14
15 Lance Armstrong 3.24
16 Andy Schleck 3.30
17 Luis León Sánchez Gil 3.35
18 Bert Grabsc 3.40
19 Joaquin Rodriguez 3.43
20 Bradley Wiggins 3.59

Can’t say that wasn’t fun! :)

by RoadRash911 on Jul 23, 2010 11:36 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

How or Why did you do this?

couldn’t resist.

Soli Deo Gloria

by LooseHorse on Jul 23, 2010 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Ouch!

by RoadRash911 on Jul 23, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions

respectfully rescend the ???

Soli Deo Gloria

by LooseHorse on Jul 23, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions

For the curious or analytically minded…

Secret formula = a proprietary weighting system: Two parts ITTs of roughly equal length and importance (Olympics + Stage 18: Annecy from last year) plus two parts best head-to-head "fit checks" in the this year’s Tour (1/2 Prologue + Stage 17: Col du Tourmalet). Basically, it’s who’s the freshest/strongest (Tourmalet) + plus it doesn’t hurt to be one of the best in the world in the TT discipline.

I figure the biggest wildcards are the top three spots. The funny thing was, based purely on the numbers, even if Schleck "blows it," he still doesn’t fall out of second place. The time gaps came from the top 20 places from the Olympics, just to ballpark things.

Obviously, a number crunching exercise like this has no effect on reality. But some of the other analytical postings on this site suggest you have about an 80%-90% chance of doing the best you can, kinda like you always do. The other thing I liked was going through all the previous results helped vector some names and performances you might not normally expect. Then of course there is the yellow jersey effect plus some of the riders might be secretly (or not so secretly) tired or motivated…

Kinda fun, huh? :)

by RoadRash911 on Jul 24, 2010 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions

but this tt is pretty much flat, unlike the olympics or last year's annecy time trial

"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind

by umwolverine on Jul 24, 2010 5:16 AM EDT up reply actions

If this is 100% accurate I will gove you

1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 points

Vamos Alberto!
Quitter's People United member # 42

by Phil H. on Jul 24, 2010 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions

or give you

Vamos Alberto!
Quitter's People United member # 42

by Phil H. on Jul 24, 2010 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions

You should win next years also.

Soli Deo Gloria

by LooseHorse on Jul 24, 2010 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

have a lot of faith there in jrod, don'tcha?

"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind

by umwolverine on Jul 24, 2010 5:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Whoa, sure got that one wrong! :)

by RoadRash911 on Jul 24, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

1. Cancellara
2. Martin
3. Zabriske

by Ozzie5365 on Jul 23, 2010 11:37 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

e'tape 19...Bordeaux......52km (31.2 mi)....Pauillac

Cancellara…..#13……(SAX)
Menchov……..#191…(RAB)
Contador…….#1……..(AST)

CMC: my alma marter, Glenwood springs ( I sold Sminer my vowel)

Soli Deo Gloria

by LooseHorse on Jul 24, 2010 12:04 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Colorado Mountain College?

Love Glenwood Springs…my wife and I spent time there on our honeymoon. We stayed at Sunlight Mountain Inn. There was a great restaurant there – think it was called The River. Course, that was 10 years ago…perhaps it’s not there anymore.

by JustJoshinYa on Jul 24, 2010 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Tour of Colorado next?

I hope! Then we will see some real mountains, ones that start up where the alps and pyrenees top out!

by RoadRash911 on Jul 24, 2010 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Seriously

when I hear the announcers saying the altitude is affecting them I chuckle seeing I live at a higher elevation than the Tourmalet. What a bunch of little girly men!

Vamos Alberto!
Quitter's People United member # 42

by Phil H. on Jul 24, 2010 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions