2010 Tour de France Accountability Time!

on the Malori / TT quote.

1: Lance’s crash before the Ramaz destroyed everything. If not for that he was in great form and would have threatened Contador

2:Fränks crash on the cobbles destroyed everything. If not for that the Andy/Fränk double-team would have threatened Contador

We will hear this endlessly in the year to come.

That he had a mechanic and rode 15km on a child bike?

I was expecting The Revolution from Basso and Liquigas! But killer smile never materialize during the Tour!

Frinking! Please don’t do this to us again! Don’t disappear!

AC
Andy
Cadel
Ivan
Roman

I have forgotten who Ivan might even refer to (joke!)

Me: Had Wiggo in 4th, Hesjedal 21st

Plinytheelder said well what others also said:

Wouldn’t he (Armstrong) logically be expected to do at least as well? I still don’t see where exactly he can win the Tour – i.e. where he picks up time on Contador and A. Schleck – but he does seem stronger than last year, and last year he was pretty good.

Like sminer for one, who also said:

Armstrong’s build-up for the Tour has been pretty spot on from a training stand point.
Much better than last year.

He goes on,

the 26 for Armstrong being laughable

and, well, Phil H agrees withhis smack-talking poster:

There is nothing I hate more than agreeing with sminer on Lance Armstrong
but my god I kinda do here. OK I am not a big delusional fanboy of Lance(because that’s reserved for Bert) like sminer and realize he won’t win but having him ranked this low is silly. Why still doubt him? As much as I wouldn’t mind him being only strong enough to get a bottom top-10 so others on the Shack can shine I know that won’t be the case. He proved to me last year that he will be a podium threat no matter of form or age. And yes his form has looked better this year even if it hasn’t been as impressive as the result books may show(TdS had the worst TT field of all time when it comes to GC guys).

Spot on for 23rd place that is.

OTOH, Jens nailed with this:

Lance and Wiggins are my bets for those who will be hurt by the most by this years parcourse.

And Gavia agreed:

I tend to see Wiggins last year as a one-off. I’d be surprised if he can repeat this time.

And agi:

Im not buying Wiggins for podium hopeful

 There was A LOT of discussion/prediction of the cobbles stage, but most of it had Cancellara as the implied winner and so they were looking for other possibilities like, seahorse saying,

No argument there… but Tony is a marked man..

Can’t mark what you can’t catch!

As I said, people predicted all sorts of stuff on the cobbles, but when it came to domestiques, almost all of it was wrong. It truly was a crazy stage. But looking back it wasn’t so crazy for the GC folks. They did better than a lot of us feared (hoped).

But leave it to Jens to remind us (and andrewp agreed),

I have the feeling stage 2 is getting missed in all the cobbles-crooning. The stage 2 parcourse is nasty if there are teams who want to make use of it.

Back to the cobbles though and nrs5000:

Contador is clearly the fave, but just what if the Spartacus somehow pulls the bros. Schleck through the cobbles with a significant time gap on AC. It’s not the likeliest scenario, but would sure make for an interesting race.

Then there was tamberlaine goading me to bet:

Okay, ursula, you have Wiggings at 29,
Armstrong at 26. I’ve got a 100 bucks that says that Armstrong beats Wiggins. If your assessment is right, it should be an easy 100 for you. Are you willing to stand behind your picks? Are we on?

The numbers referred to my math.

For the record, Lance beat Brad by 4 seconds in the race, with both comfortably back in 23rd and 34th places.\

Oh, and one more from me and this was AFTER stage 9, while speaking of the spotty jersey competition:

Rafael Valls? That would sure be a coup for Footon to have one of its riders stamp their foot on the KOM prize.

Valls promptly fell out of the competition and was never heard of again.

That post-stage 8 post had a poll on who would win it. In that poll I DID NOT EVEN LIST CHARTEAU as a possibility, though to be fair he was in 18th place in the competition. Even though he was leading with 85 points. Who people voted for:

1) Schleck- 30
2) gesink-25
3) Valls-23
4) Armstrong-15
5) Pineau-10
6) tie between Moinard, Contador, Chavanel and Mara Abbott with 5 votes

because you are afraid to fail?

Ha!

but Finking was invisible

that’s awesome.

1. Nicolas Vogondy
 Dream scenario: a good prologue, he avoids the traps of the first week-end and sneaks into a nice break in the Jura to get the Maillot Jaune in Les Rousses. If not, you can count on him to be on top on the Combativity classification for most of the Tour.

At best he was in 1 breakaway and completed a fully anonymous Tour :( Which reminds me, there should be a post about riders we haven’t mentioned at all during the 3-weeks. Title could be: “Really, you were there?”

2. John Gadret
I expect a steady pace from Gadret in the Alps but I can see him taking his chances in the 3rd week where he will be back in shape. Look for him to score a top 10 finish at Plateau de Bonascre and maybe a top 20 finish overall.

Well the only chance he took was with his life when he decided that the Euro referendum and Henry’s handball were not enough to strain our relations with the Irish people. Kept his steady all the way to Pauillac where I’m sure he enjoyed some win on the side of the road…

3. Jérôme Pineau
With a couple of top 10 finishes in the Ardennaises and since he rides for a Belgian team, I expect to see Pineau in action as soon as we get south of Brussels. He might also shine in the transition stages between the Alps and the Pyrénées although the Bastille Day stage is maybe a bit too climby for him.

His combativity gave him the polka dot for a while but in the end Quickstep was much stronger than expected and he had to do a lot of domestique work so I think he ran out of gas by the end of week 2. Good Tour though !

4. Rémi Pauriol
Methinks he is back on track and I think he could have an interesting albeit unspectacular Tour.

Took his chance on the road to Gap but didn’t have it in him. Must have finished the Tour in pretty good condition for attacking on the Champs-Elysées. Finished 41" behind Michael Rogers on GC, that’s gotta be good no? I thought the ToC was a Grand Tour ???

5. Christophe Le Mével
It’s gonna be tough to duplicate last year’s results but I think he will be motivated and he should be the clear GC leader for FdJ. I don’t think he’ll repeat top 10, but consecutive top 20 at the TdF would be very good… by French standards ;)

Big disappointment for Le Mével who was completely out of shape and got dropped on almost every single climb. His disastrous attack on Lamoura was a sign of bad Tour: he ended up losing 2 min on the main group after having attacked that group 2 km from the summit…

Raine Taramae and Oscar Freire!

his green jersey preview prediction for Ale-jet

This old warhorse is almost certainly hunting for stages. Assuming he even makes the Lampre squad, you can bet he’ll be satisfied with a win or two — certainly within his abilities — and won’t make much pretense of carrying on to Paris. An old tiger doesn’t change his stripes.

so I can imagine Ryder seriously competing for a transitional or mountain stage or two and possibly becoming the #1 GC guy on the team

Jacob Fuglsang: Saxo Bank – …Coming off of an impressive podium at this year’s Tour de Suisse and a win at Denmark’s National Time Trial, will it be hard for Riis to saddle the youngster’s ambitions? Or with this being his first Tour, will the ambitions already be saddled by lack of experience?

I like this rider so much, but it should have been clearer to me on a hard route and for his first tour, he was not going to be much more than a faithful domestique.

Thomas Lovkvist: Team Sky – I have to believe that Thomas thinks he is a better GC rider than Wiggins. I believe he is too.

Nailed it! Will we see him show in the Vuelta?

Robbie McEwen, Team Katusha – My suggestion to Robbie: Save your energy and try to make the break in a stage you know it will succeed.

Although I would have loved to be wrong, Robbie’s fast days are behind him. Prediction success!

Gerald Ciolek, Moo – He’s been rumored to already have signed, and if he leaves the Tour with a bunch of 6th places, good for him for probably getting way more money then he’s worth. However, if he has not signed, he better perform or I could see his value dropping to that of a lead-out man.

After his dismal tour, what team would spend Class A sprinter money on Ciolek?

Martijn Maskaant, Garmin Transitions – If he’s a vital part of the Farrar sprint train, and they get just one win, then Martijn’s selection will be worth it. However, if Cav is on form and dominating, and CVV needs help in the mountains, it will be a wasted selection. Even Bubble Boy may prove more beneficial to the team.

Don’t know what else to say. He needs to start getting results.

But 3 weeks ago I had a vision of Sylvester Szmyd in the Polka Dots Jersey!

Basso and Kreuziger:

My prediction: Two top 10’s but no podium finishers and neither guy very threatening throughout the race.

Well Basso may have been on pace for a top-10 before the bronchitis. Still a pretty good call on not threatening throughout the race.

Lance Armstrong and Levi Leipheimer:

My prediction: Lance just off the podium and Levi just outside the Top-10. No stage wins and no glory this time.

Complete fail on Lance and a good call on Levi. The no stage wins referred to the two so got that right.

Denis Menchov and Robert Gesink:

My prediction: Gesink wins a stage and is in the hunt for the KOM but doesn’t win it in the end. He finishes top-20 while helping Menchov to a top-10, likely around 5th or 6th.

Yeah not so much here. Robert never really got that close to a stage or the KOM. Denis was around 5th or 6th but I didn’t think he could podium.

Alberto Contador and Alexander Vinokourov:

My prediction: Contador wins the Tour and at least two stages. Vino works his ass for him and finishes lower top-20.

Well no stage wins but the Tour win. Vino was around bottom top-20. I did think he could win a stage, should have mentioned that.

Andy Schleck and Frank Schleck:

My prediction: 2nd and 3rd overall and at least one stage win.

Got the 2nd and at least one stage win. Oh what could have been.

Roman Kreuziger

7th overall, around 10 min down on the winner. An improvement and will keep his sights towards improving to the next year.

So he didn’t really do better than last year. He struggled in the mountains a good bit, behind his top 10 counterparts. While his place was the same as last year, 9th, he did finish about 3 minutesbetter than he did last year over a tougher course. It will do him good to find some fresh pasture away from Basso and Nibali and see if he comes into his own

Tony Martin

Martin will win a stage. It could be the long TT but if he loses time in the mountains, he might be able to slip away in a breakaway that sticks and solo home for a victory.

So he didn’t end up winning that stage. He came pretty close though, considering how dominate Cancellara has been in the TT over the last few years, to come within 17 seconds of him at only 25 years of age is a definite sign for the future. If he doesn’t over-train himself like he did this winter and keeps up with the climbing, he could be a dominate force in years to come

Cyril Gautier

Going a bit bold with this one and saying a few day’s in the Polka Dots along with a two breakaway rides. He might drop out before the end but I am interested to see how he does.

Well my polka-dot dreams for him didn’t come to fruition but he did get into the breakaways…mountain breakaways. 2 breakaways plus some high finishes more to the head of the race on the harder stages. While 45th place is well…not much, he is only 22 and could develop into a good mountains rider.

Last two: Christian Knees and Anthony Roux
Yeah, I don’t want to talk about it.
I had Knees as 15th overall but I was not expecting 91st. He was in at least 3 or 4 breaks this year and was active during the last stage on the Champs with Danish Champ, Nicki Sorenson. Could be worse…

And worse would be Anthony Roux. Really, Tony, I talk you up like your going to be something big after your Vuelta stage win last year and you give me zilch. One breakaway…and it was the last friggin dayof the Tour. Your young, I know but come on man…got to give me a little something.

is who this asshole in Chris’ signature is. When is he going to be held accountable?

One perfect prediction out of five. Great.

Stéphane Augé, Cofidis: Prediction: He will be in a breakaway on stage 1, stage 2 at worst. A couple of early KOM points, maybe the Maillot à Pois for a day or two.

I remember him in two breakaways, but not in the first stages. 4 KOM points in all the Tour, not even close to the jersey, even in the early stages… he was not his usual “always attack” self.

Sandy Casar, FDJ: Prediction: Another second place in a stage.

Perfect prediction! He was second in the Pau stage behind Fédrigo. And of course, he also won the stage to Saint-Jean de Maurienne, beating tough competition like Luis Leon Sanchez, Cunego, Moreau, eventual maillot à pois Charteau, Schleck and Contador. Not bad at all!

Serguei Ivanov, Katusha: Prediction: He’ll try his luck on the stage 2 or stage 13.

Was he even there? I don’t remember seeing him! A very quiet tour for him. I expected more.

Pierre Rolland, BBox Bouygues: Prediction: A breakaway on stage 16… and why not, the Souvenir Jacques Godet on the top of the Tourmalet?

Rolland was in a few breakaways, but never made it to the end. He didn’t win the Souvenir Jacques Godet even if he did attack on the Tourmalet (two days later), seconds before Schleck and Contador got away. His overall finish was much worse than last year, 58th at 1:46 (8th for the Maillot Blanc). A somewhat disappointing Tour.

Wesley Sulzberger, FDJ: Prediction: He’ll try is luck in early breakaways, and maybe try his luck at a massive sprint finish.

It was obviously a learning experience as we didn’t see a lot of him. As a matter of fact, we didn’t see anything at all. Yet he made it to Paris, which is a nice achievement.

the “188-page Special Tour de France Essential Guide”! I look forward to reading all the predictions before the race begins – wait, you mean it’s over already???

(at least it’s better than last year – think then I received it a month afterwards not a day afterwards. Can’t figure out why it takes them so long to send to Canada, irritating to read the “cyclesportmag” tweets about “latest edition on the newsstands now” and realize that because it’s the UK people tweeting they’re referring to the edition two ahead of the one I’m about to receive!).

Here are the five I said to look out for:

Cris Anker Sorensen (SAX):on those bumpy stages when a Schleck isn’t going for broke, or Fuglsang, Breschel, Voigt, Tony or O’Grady aren’t going for a stage win…expect to see something from this kid.

Unfortunately I was too right. But he never got his chance. Maybe next year.

Eros Cappechi (FOO):Keep an eye out for this one in the long breaks.

oops…top stage finish, 12th into Pau…behind Thor. Don’t recall seeing him in any breaks either.

Dries Devenyns (QST): With Boonen out, and Seeldraeyers also untested in the Tour, look for DD to get his chance for some glory this time round.

Not far from the truth. Top stage finish, 3rd into Gap.

Rui Costa (CdE): While he will probably be kept in the service of LuLu for much of this tour….

Forget about what else I said…this part was true.

Manuel Cardoso (FOO)……..

Doesn’t even matter. I don’t think the tv coverage had started for the prologue before he crashed out. sigh.