he always said it would be the year for two but I had hoped he would go to La Vuelta. Anyway he should notch down his early schedule for next year(only P-N and classics) and then go Giro-Tour.

Interesting statement. Definitely unless he rides and does well in the Vuelta, or does something less likely like Lombardia and emilia and scores in both, he will be less of a value than his buyers had hoped. But let’s compare what he’s done with other riders, but noting their points per unit cost.

Contador’s points per unit cost is right now 62.375

Other riders:

Evans- 58.214 Evans’ main hope to get more points are Lombardia/Emilia. He could approach Bert if all goes right, but usually things aren’t quite that good.

A Schleck-56.667 He’ll ride the Vuelta but it’s doubtful he’ll score high in the GC. If he does the Vuelta he probably won’t do the Italian races. Now if he rides high in the Vuelta-say scores 500 points, that puts him at 77.5. But again I doubt any Tour rider will do great at the Vuelta and he’ll be helping his bro.

Basso-59.75. He might ride the Italian races at the end of the season but he probably won’t get a lot of points. He’s about done.

J-Rod- 82.85
Vino- 91.57

These are the two best value GC riders this year of the more expensive guys…

But if you look at less expensive GC guys you start with Hesjedal a GC rider with a105 points per unit cost ratio. Nice. Scarponi is similar with a 101.625.

Nibali is at 46 right now-not toto great. But IMO he has a good chance at winning the Vuelta. let’s say he does that and he scores 900 points in the process 9which is a good point haul for a GT winner but often it’s more). That would put him at 102.25

Also nice.

But if you are opening the window for all possible GC riders than…

Horner @ 233.75 looks great and blows everyone away except…

Anton and his 335 Points per unit cost just blows everyone away even before the Vuelta.

So looking at just GC guys, Contador is a pretty good buy, especially if you are looking at the expensive GC guys.

For non-GC guys:

Gilbert— 48.036 is low but you gotta think he’ll be piling up some points for the rest of the year.

Cancellara is at 48.107. If he wins the WC TT again he’d be at 60.607, still a bit less than where Bert is now.

Farrar could beat out Bert. He’s at 56.75 now and between Vuelta sprints, the WC RR, and Paris-Tours and maybe Eneco he could score a bundle and pass Bert. Either way I think it will be close between the two.

Petacchi is now at 66.429 so he’s in Bert range now. I’m thinking he won’t get much more but he’s done quite well so far.

Cavendish? He’s only at 26.428 so he has to win big to get close to Bert. Let’s see… give him a couple Vuelta stages (240 points) + Worlds RR (350) plus Paris-Tours (250)…that gets him to 1580 points or a ratio of 56.428. Still not enough to overtake Bert.

So I omitted various riders who are worse off than the ones I picked but you get the idea. Bert’s 32 points of cost are actually a pretty damn good value.