Tour ----> Vuelta. Can a Rider Win or Even Be Competitive In Both?

by ursula on Aug 11, 2010 4:26 PM EDT in News

Consider this a pre-GC prediction post. We need to see if a certain scenario-riding well in both the Tour then the Vuelta-is possible these days. We've been talking all year about this GC issue. Can a rider win the Giro than the Tour? Can they even be competitive in both? We didn't see it work out this year with some very good GC riders. Can Contador seriously attempt a calendar year Grand Tour treble? How about if you throw the Vuelta in the mix. Is a Tour/Vuelta double possible?

Let's deal with this Tour--->Vuelta issue now.

There are several highly placed Tour riders this year who are looking at riding the Vuelta too. Both Schlecks, Menchov, Sastre, Roche, Lulu, Le Mevel, Vande Velde, Zabriskie, Kreuziger, Lofkvist, and probably a couple more. Are these guys just plain nuts? Are they riding with a couple of screws loose?

So this morning I looked at a couple of things. First I checked to see if anyone has won both the Vuelta and Tour in the same year since 95, the year the Vuelta moved to September. Then I checked to see if anyone has podiumed at both since then. Finally I took the last five years (2005-2009) and saw a) what the top 20 of the Tour did in each year focusing on if they rode the Vuelta and how well they did, and b) I did the opposite: took the top 20 of the Vuelta to see if those guys rode the Tour and how well they did. Confusing? It will get clearer on the break.

Question 1: Has anyone done the Tour/Vuelta since 95? Most of you know this answer: no one has. We are only talking about 15 years though and since Armstrong won seven Tours in that time and then coasted the rest of the year (and Contador did the same with his two wins) I don't feel like we have a truly fair sample size. But there you have it: no one has won both in the same year.

Question 2: Has anyone podiumed at both in the same year? Okay there's been no double winners: has anyone gotten close? Yes! But only three times by two riders:

2002 saw Beloki finish 2nd at the Tour and 3rd at the Vuelta.
2006 saw Sastre finish 3rd at both races.
2008 saw Sastre win the Tour and finish 3rd at the Vuelta.

Their have been a couple of close calls too though I don;t have a definitive list of those. But here's a couple:

2007 saw Evans and Sastre (again) get close. Evans scored 2nd at the Tour and 4th in the Vuelta while Sastre did the opposite: 4th at the Tour and 2nd at the Vuelta.
2005 saw Mancebo place 4th at the Tour and 3rd at the Vuelta.

I'm sure there are more but I stopped there. Interesting that we don't see Menchov on here. But on to...

Question 3: What have the last five years shown us? Is there a pattern of riders doing well in one but not both races? Or do some riders excel in both? And how many riders are we talking about?

You'll see that there is a pattern. I'll show you what I got but there's one thing I need to say first:

DO NOT DISCOUNT CARLOS SASTRE

Carlos knows how to do this double. He's done it successfully several times. I'm clueless on what he does but he can do it better than any other rider in the peloton. Of course he's working on all three GT's this year. Anyways, let's take it year by year starting with 2009. There will be two lists after each year and then some commentary.

2009

Top 20 Tour riders who then rode the Vuelta. The number before the rider's name is they're placing in the Tour.

2. A Schleck-------------------> DNF stage 8 of the Vuelta

5. F Schleck-------------------> DNS stage 11

9. Kreuziger-------------------> 61st place

11. Casar-----------------------> DNF stage 14

13. Nocentini-----------------> DNF stage 13

20. Knees----------------------> 43rd place

So 6 of the Tour's top 20 last year rode the Vuelta with really bad results. None of them were competitive at any point in the Vuelta. Notice no Spanish riders are listed and keep that in the back of your mind. Now let's look at the Vuelta top 20:

3. Evans<-------------------- 29th place in the Tour

6. Gesink<------------------- DNS stage 6

14. Zubeldia<--------------- 26th place

So 3 of the Vuelta top 20 had ridden the Tour and as you see they were non-competitive at the Tour.

It seems, just from 2009, its very hard to be competitive at both races. Is this generally true? To answer that we have to look at more years.

2008

Tour-------------------->Vuelta results

1. Sastre-------------->3rd at the Vuelta

8. Valverde----------->5th

13. Casar------------->19th

14. Moinard---------->18th

15. Astarloza--------->28th

19. Goubert----------> 13th

Huh. That's different from 2009. Much better. Still just 6 out of 20 Tour top 20 entered the Vuelta but they did better. Only one of them, Astarloza, couldn't keep his Tour form in the Vuelta. Unlike 09, we are looking at all Spanish or French riders here.

Vuelta<--------------.Tour

8. Moncoutie<-------39th at the Tour

9. E Martinez<-------47th

10. Bruseghin<------24th

17. Arroyo<-----------27th

So, like 09, also-rans at the Tour improved at the Vuelta.Only Bruze breaks the Spanish/French monopoly (and this was the year he rode all three Grand Tours finishing 3rd at the Giro). But unlike in 09 Sastre and Valverde prove here that you can ride well at both.

2007

Tour-------------------->Vuelta results

2. Evans--------------->4th at Vuelta

4. Sastre-------------->2nd

5. Zubeldia----------->44th

10. Pereiro----------->DNF stage 9

14. Karpets-----------> 7th

15. Horner------------>36th

17. Beltran------------>9th

20. Garate------------->30th

Eight riders in this list. Mixed results here. Evans, Sastre, Karpets, and Beltran had strong races both times, particularly the first two.

Now the opposite

Vuelta<--------------Tour results

1. Menchov<----------DNF stage 17 (What if Chicken had never ridden the Tour?)

8. Anton<--------------DNF stage 11

10. Barredo<---------41st

13. Goubert<---------26th

16. Syl Chavanel<--DNS stage 17

20. Turpin<-----------43rd

Again, regardless of the likes of Sastre or Evans, etc., the Vuelta top 20 is dominated by rider who either didn't ride the Tour or who finished way back-if they finished at all. The trick is figuring out which good Tour riders-if any-will do well in th Vuelta as most won't.

2006

Tour-------------------->Vuelta results

1. Pereiro------------->49th

3. Sastre-------------->3rd

5. Menchov----------> DNS stage 11

6. Dessel-------------> DNS stage 16

8. Zubeldia----------->34th

13. Boogerd--------> DNS stage 16

14. M Fothen-------> DNF stage 12

15. Caucchioli-------> 37th

17. Chicken----------> DNF stage 17

20. Arroyo------------>19th

Wow. Its like after the Tour someone said, "Let's do this again in Spain!" as 10 of the Tour's top 20 rode the Vuelta. And , as we see, they rode the Vuelta to bad results. Except for Carlos. 4 of the 10 are not Spanish or French and all did bad in Spain.

Vuelta<----------------------------Tour results

3. Sastre<--------------------------3rd

5. Gomez Marchante<---------- DNF stage 17

8. Karpets<------------------------ 29th

12. E Martinez<------------------ 41st

19. Arroyo<------------------------20th

20. Horner<----------------------- 63rd

And once again we see that poor Tour results for GC types can lead to good Vueltas. Again though, there's the Spanish thing as naturally Spanish riders give a bit more for their national Grand Tour. Remember, Karpets in the table was on Caisse d'Epargne. Only Horner , barely on this list doesn't have a Spanish tie.

2005

Tour-------------------->Vuelta results

4. Mancebo-----------> 3rd

10. Pereiro------------> 25th

18. Sevilla-------------> 6th

And the year before hardly anyone even tried the Tour/Vuelta double. Mancebo did well.

Vuelta<--------------Tour results

1. Menchov<---------- 85th

2. Sastre<-------------- 21st

15. Aerts<------------- 112th

18. Serrano<--------- 40th

And so on.

Conclusion:

You want to do well in the Vuelta after scoring high in the Tour? Be Spanish or maybe French. Better yet, be Carlos Sastre. So looking at that list of Tour riders looking at a Vuelta start:

Schlecks, Menchov, Sastre, Roche, Lulu, Le Mevel, Vande Velde, Zabriskie, Kreuziger, Lofkvist

Put your money on Sastre for a double top 20. Look at Vandevelde and Frank Schleck to score high. Maybe Le Mevel to make the Vuelta top 20. Maybe Zabriskie too though I have him on my VDS team so he'll probably fall off a cliff or something. Andy Schleck? Nope, his chances are slim to none. His brother Frank looks a lot better. Roche? Nah. Kreuziger? Nope. Menchov? Meh. Lofkvist? Hard to see it.

Anyway, I will put this info in my GC prediction math. You see anything different here worth noting?

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Comments

not really sure...

…why you have included vande velde so prominently. Sure he started to tour, but he only did 2.5 stages. Sure he shaped his season around a peak for the tour (which didnt really pan out due to crash in the Giro) but I think he would be different that a rider that emptied themselves (a la schleck, menchov etc) at the tour.

On a side note, heres to hoping he can pull through and have a good run though, guy deserves it after all hes been through this season

by ykgday on Aug 11, 2010 5:20 PM EDT reply actions

CVV

This guy is of a list of riders I saw on the Cycling fever start list that a) rode the past Tour and b) has had some success at a Grand Tour. Given that and the fact that he obviously wasn’t a top rider in the last Tour, he could be a rider who might pull out a top 10 showing at the Vuelta.

Now obviously we don’t have the entire start list so I can’t do a full comparison of the GC guys. But CVV looks like a dark horse to me.

The question I would be asking me is why did I mention Zabriskie?

by ursula on Aug 11, 2010 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions

why did you mention zabriskie???

by yeehoo on Aug 12, 2010 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Beats me!

Honestly I have no idea. Maybe DZ took over my keyboard for a second.

by ursula on Aug 12, 2010 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions

You are nuts.

by Drongo on Aug 12, 2010 3:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

But I don't live in Salt Lake City.

by ursula on Aug 12, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Neither does DZ :P

Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!

by Vlaanderen90 on Aug 12, 2010 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions

And I never said he did...

by ursula on Aug 13, 2010 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions

it's

Ricardo on that list

by lucybears on Aug 12, 2010 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions

OK

it’s Christian

by lucybears on Aug 13, 2010 6:13 AM EDT up reply actions

I still think that menchov has a bit of sastre mixed into the bin here. I think that he will likely be one of the better tour riders.

Though the sheer climbiness of this vuelta will likely mean a course not tailor made for him to do well.

The course also does not necessarily bode well for a diesel like Vande Velde. Frank Schleck may find this course to his liking as should Anton.

The Sastre question will be just how much of his legendary ability to go uphill fast still lives in his aging legs. If he has anything on his 30-33 year old self he has a shot. If he is more his 34-35 year old self he will be there or thereabouts, but not in contention for the win.

I think Anton has a great chance to win this.

'When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning' - Dr. Reiner Knizia

by bought with blood on Aug 11, 2010 5:50 PM EDT reply actions

Menchov

Yeah I kept wanting to put him in as a guy who can do two Grand Tours in a row reasonably well. I really wanted to do that. But he has no history of doing decently in a 2nd consecutive Grand Tour.

You got the big question on Sastre right: does he still have it? We’ll find out.

Agreed on Anton. Serious contender. Same with Frank Schleck-if he can truly get up for it, which I am not totally sure he can.

by ursula on Aug 11, 2010 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I wish I could go 5th at the Giro and 4th at the Tour and NOT be good in my second GT of a year.

2008!

Menchov also personally states that he does better in his second GT in a year. The 2005 Vuelta also followed a Tour Apperance, so his second GT is often his best.

'When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning' - Dr. Reiner Knizia

by bought with blood on Aug 11, 2010 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, that Giro/Tour double is good, very good

I just wasn’t studying that.

As for the “2nd GT is better for Menchov” thing, it certainly is when his first Grand Tour sucked, like in 2005 and 2007. Of course that meme doesn’t explain 2009, does it? So I’d be careful in automatically thinking that Menchov does better in the 2nd GT.

So looking at all of Menchov, including the Giro/Tour, he has one year where he got close to what Sastre has done three times and Evans and Mancebo did once. Close, but not equal. That is balanced by him really screwing up in 2009. His 2005 ad 2007 found him better in the 2nd GT because his first GT was awful. In fact Menchov normally has maybe the widest variation between his 1st GT of the year and his 2nd of the major GC riders of the past five years. To expect him to do well in this Vuelta is going against his normal pattern-though he has done that once before.

by ursula on Aug 11, 2010 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't rightly know how to explain the horrorshow that was Menchov at the Tour in 2009, and yet I forgive him

that in light of how hard he had to fight to win that Giro over the gassed up Killer.

I did not say he went better in his second GT HE did. I figure if anyone would know it would be him.

I am not sure that Menchov burning all his matches in his first GT leads to a great performance in his second. I don’t think it does, and yet the horrible display of bad fortune he had in 2009 cannot be totally blamed on him being shitty or off form. History shows that he is much better, period, than he was in the 09 Tour.

So here we stand and we predict will the 10 Vuelta be more 08 Tour or 09 Tour. I am leaning toward 08, but hey I like the guy a lot. So I am biased.

He may also be here in service to Gesink and well that would throw the whole thing in the Tank. Though I would love to see Bobo win!!!

'When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning' - Dr. Reiner Knizia

by bought with blood on Aug 11, 2010 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions

nice post!

i don’t see any of the main contenders from the tour winning the vuelta, although having said that i wouldn’t be surprised if menchov podiumed, not sure why just have a feeling.

i say the vuelta podium will be made up of anton, nibali & f. schleck. no idea on order though. be nice if nibali won it.

"I was watching the Tour de France in 2005, just being a fan again. I thought, ‘you're a fucking idiot. You're a bike fan who gets to ride the Tour de France.'"
- david millar

by Ben Shave on Aug 11, 2010 7:54 PM EDT reply actions

Menchov buzz

Yeah I feel the same thing about the guy. Don’t know why. But I think others have it too. And I haven’t seen everyone yet but those three for the podium you have make a whole lot of sense.

by ursula on Aug 11, 2010 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Is it because he's won two

or finished strong, or rode the giro-tour well in 2008, or is simply the silent assassin

by timon on Aug 11, 2010 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions

YES! NIBALI!

that would make my team very happy.

this is easier than rbjhan i hope....

by JessicaH on Aug 11, 2010 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I tendo to strongly agree with that

I am all in for Nibali. Good climbing better TTer than the other two.

"Last time I had a broken chain nobody waited for me. I had to chase all the freaking way to the finish. It is race!!" Alexandre Perez

by perezbike on Aug 13, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Danielson ftw

by R Mc on Aug 11, 2010 7:59 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Ha!

Its OBVIOUS!

by ursula on Aug 11, 2010 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Your reply spawned a 30 minute Joe Jackson excursus . . .

by R Mc on Aug 11, 2010 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh. I am so, so sorry.

by ursula on Aug 11, 2010 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Yep. Bubble Boy just needs to show up

and this race is his for the taking :)

Twitter username: FitTechEric

by The Team Chef on Aug 12, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Danielson is still pissed

about being short changed 10 VDS points from the Tour of Poland.

by Logy on Aug 14, 2010 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions

J-Rod is doing the Vuelta, isn't he?

I’d actually give him a better shot than Lulu. He was climbing very well at the Tour (3rd on the Tourmalet stage; granted SamSan likely would have beaten him had he not crashed) and has previously done two GTs (though not consecutively) in the same year with reasonable success—17th Giro and 6th Vuelta in 2008. (And 2009, abandoned Giro with an injury while top 20; 7th Vuelta) If he is able to improve on that as he has improved on most other fronts this year… well then.

As for Sastre—his durability is impressive and I think he’ll do fairly well, but I’d be surprised to see him in the top five. He has generally had valid reasons for his not-so-great GT performances lately, but after a while you just start thinking that either he’s lost a bit, or something bad will happen to him this time too.

It’s hard to see Menchov not contending.

Cazzo, it's going to be a bloodbath! The Mortirolo is a horror, absolutely interminable. -- Michele Scarponi

by tgartner on Aug 11, 2010 9:54 PM EDT reply actions

Although I must Say that a Nibali win would be no surprise to anyone.

He was so strong at the Giro and has had a nice long layoff. He should be firing on all cylinders. He is probably the most rounded and experienced rider in contention that is not carrying Tour prep/riding in his legs.

Oh and Krueziger better be pulling domestique duties here, almost twelve minutes back at the Tour should not earn you team leadership on this Leaky team.

'When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning' - Dr. Reiner Knizia

by bought with blood on Aug 11, 2010 11:15 PM EDT reply actions

He, Kreuziger, probably won't be on top form anyways but it isn't like he cares that much other than bonus money

since he is going to leave after this year.

Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!

by Vlaanderen90 on Aug 12, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Mosquera will win the Vuelta.

You heard it here first. Probably the most underrated GT rider out there. He’s long overdue for an actual podium, and with the current competition let’s make it the top step.

(it’s just that 50 k TT he won’t like. But then again, who does. Except for Menchov)

by blackswangreen on Aug 12, 2010 5:10 AM EDT reply actions

How has the Vuelta changed in the fifteen years since its Autumn move? Is it my imagination or is it getting tougher each year? The last couple of years its toughness seems to have improved its profile, so is it getting more competitive (I’ve always thought the Vuelta wasn’t overally competitive, unless you were Spanish, than it clung on to parochialism longer than the Giro did).

In terms of Roche – GC contender? Nah. He’ll probably set a top ten target but hopefully he’ll remember that stage wins count more than finishing in some forgettable position low down the GC. And with Dan MArtin showing him at the weekend that wins look nicer on yoru palmares than finishing 15th in the Tour and bagging a fews quickly forgotten thirds and fourths hopefully that’ll spur him to pock his nose out of the peloton more than he did at the Tour and go for glory. Looking at him this year though he just seems to be developing into a defensive risk nothing, lose nothing rider.

pounding along in three ratios like a sonata
like a Ritter with pommelled scrotum atra cura on the step
Botticelli from the fork down pestling the transmission
tires bleeding voiding zeep the highway

by fmk on Aug 12, 2010 8:02 AM EDT reply actions

Zeke, Menshov, Carlos. Nibali.

My favorites for Vuelta!
Zeke – very gritty, determined guy! This is his race, he is picking during Vuelta time.
Menshov – Denis made a trip to Russia right after the Tour, to his native town Orel. According to him, nothing better to work on your mental game then to visit the place of your youth. He said in his interview to Russian news paper "Sovetsky Sport ": " It is so nice sometime to be able to walk the street without recognition and attention from the public and the Press" He rarely visiting Russia during the season, so it is shows the seriousness of his preparation to Vuelta.
Carlos, I just love this guy! But don’t you people forget that he also rode the Giro this year. Age and problem with his back, I don’t now, I will put big question mark against his name.
Nibali – Hey! Vini, borrow Tall Blue Hat from Ivan, Practice the Climbing smile affront the mirror and you will be ok!

ASTANA - 4 - EVAH! Is classier than SUNGARD- WHATEVAH!

by holmovka on Aug 12, 2010 8:15 AM EDT reply actions

Funny that Menchov goes to his home country to avoid being recognized.

by blackswangreen on Aug 12, 2010 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Fanny and sad!

But this is the situation with cycling in Russia. And creation and promotion of the "Katusha" didn’t changed things that much!

ASTANA - 4 - EVAH! Is classier than SUNGARD- WHATEVAH!

by holmovka on Aug 12, 2010 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Sastre, to me,

did not appear to be in top form in the Tour, more that he was looking to peak for the Vuelta. He didn’t stay with the leaders (or the second or third group up the mountains). He was stage-hunting, particularly the latter stages like the one when SamSan fell early. I’m thinking your prediction is fairly accurate, maybe not quite leaning enough on Sastre.

by ITT on Aug 12, 2010 1:29 PM EDT reply actions