VDS: the big wigs (24+pt.). Which, if any, are worth it?
- Rodriguez- improved support, wins elusive in 2010.
- Gilbert- prime candidate for three of the monuments.
- Farrar- relatively versatile, no tour stage/monument yet.
- Cavendish- still the fastest, underperformed in 2010.
- Schleck- about as likely to win the Tour as you can get.
over 1 year ago
Triki
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Didn't you miss Cance, who is certainly worth it to me?
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
I just thought he'd struggle to improve on last year.
Also if he’s going to lose weight and go after the Ardennes races (although I’m unsure why I have that impression, can’t remember where I heard it), he may not be in his ideal terrain- not such a safe bet.
I'm pretty sure lay-a-turd has him riding a PR/Flanders schedule, not the Ardennes...
So, seems a repeat may be in the works…but Garvelo’s stable, Breschel, and Boonen – whoa boy, I’m excited for the cobbles this year….
"I briefly played on a soccer team where we took great joy yelling 'come on fuschia'" by Willj
by JustJoshinYa on Jan 17, 2011 8:14 AM EST up reply actions
Goss says he's on the hunt too...I'm not saying it will happen this year, but it's the focus of his season.
But back to my original point…no Cancellara…doesn’t work for me at all.
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
So is Cance cheaper this year?, if so, works for me
otherwise I call bullshit too, not that that’s what Seahorse is calling it.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Hopefully that 5-Monument goal is on hold.
He is a bargain at 24 if he has similar goals as last year. He may not get the double (Boonen will stick to him like glue in P-R this year), but he can be counted on for lots of high finishes in April, plus points in July and September.
I think they'll all "worth" it
I see all of them doing just about as well this year.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
I'm with you...I guess we could see Andy earning more then last year and also Farrar and Cav.
Not sure what the cost/point is on them though…I assume all of them are more costly this year.
Also, if Jrod does Giro/Vuelta, he could clean house with all the climbing…
I’m getting excited – but admittedly, I might go cheaper this year and not pick a single one of these guys…
"I briefly played on a soccer team where we took great joy yelling 'come on fuschia'" by Willj
by JustJoshinYa on Jan 17, 2011 8:35 AM EST up reply actions
Andy's comments on CN about Evans were really interesting to me
He said he thought Evans raced on a high level too much and his Tour performances suffered.
I am starting to think he may be right. We all love a rider who race from the spring to the fall. But Andy is probably going to the win the Tour this year and he only mixes it up in the Ardennes and the Tour. Outside of that, he’s not remotely on form.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Well yeah
You can’t peak for the Ardennes classics and the Giro and the Tour, especially if you’re not intrinsically the most talented climber of the peloton. Pick your battles, or be contend with being subtop in them all.
Death before decaf! :D
- gavia
& winning a Worlds etc.
"What happened in British Cycling, a lot of people doubted me. I've come back, got this victory, and done it my way." - Adam Blythe after his first pro win at Circuit Franco Belge
The worlds is far enough from the Giro and the Tour
that you can have another peak there. But you need to rest sometime before the Tour (if you wanna win it). On the one hand, trying to win everything (the Evans way) is more commendable*, but it’s probably not the smartest move if you’re after a GT. Not if your competition isn’t racing their legs off every month like you are. Especially the Giro. Too much Giro will kill you, if you wanna win the Tour.
*and last year, inspired by the need to get a BMC Tour wildcard
Death before decaf! :D
- gavia
The knock on Andy, though
seems to be that he only gets motivated for about 3 events/year (of course, the Tour’s a pretty big one), but that means that unless he wins the Tour AND is in yellow a lot, he won’t be a good point-earner relative to his cost.
The question is not how good he does at the tour but how well he does in the Ardennes.
Skinny Shclecks value is made or missed based on his performance in the Ardennes if he is there or thereabouts in those races he makes an extra 400 to 1000 points. If he misses the main move in two of those races and is out of the scoring he drops those points.
His tour performance will be based on his stage wins. 1 stage = 4 days in yellow. If Andy can pull of 3 stage wins and the overall he will be well over a thousand at the Tour. A poor tour with no stages and no yellow will kill him now that he is not eligible for an intermediate jersey. So Andy could be 500-800 points in a horrible year (without injuries) and 2000+ in a great year (one Ardennes win and a couple of podiums and the Tour with 3-4 stages.)
'When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning' - Dr. Reiner Knizia
by bought with blood on Jan 17, 2011 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, Andy's critique may be valid in the real world...
But in VDS Evans had a better season. Plus, Evans got hurt while in the yellow jersey—how many additional points would he have scored if that hadn’t happened?
I figure a couple hundred, minimum, maybe as many as 500, which would have put him right up among the leaders.
What else can I say? I'm really happy. --Vincenzo Nibali
Yeah i suppose with this group it's not so much about exceeding previous scores
rather roughly meeting them.
I give Andy less of a chance of any of being worth the VDS points
He’s one of the more peaky riders, and with AC out, he’s going to care even less about his results in the Ardenne’s. Makes Evans and Cance better bets.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Evans is 22 points... nvmd.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
I'm a little concerned that Farrar
will be riding for Thor in April this year.
Boonen at 20 looks like a good deal.
yeah, it's hard to make it to 24 point club on sprint wins alone.
Cavendish being ranked that high is a testament to his dominance.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
We are looking at seven riders in the 24 and up point range.
2. OLO PRT Philippe Gilbert 28 2145 0
3. GRM PRT Tyler Farrar 26 2000 0
4. LIQ PRT Vincenzo Nibali 26 2221 0
5. LEO PRT Fabian Cancellara24 1736 0
6. THR PRT Mark Cavendish 24 1541 0
7. KAT PRT Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver 24 2000 0
8. LEO PRT Andy Schleck 24 1364 0
Of the three lowest scorers last year I would guess that Cancellara would have the hardest time equaling his score, it’s extraordinary to do what he did last spring, he still might end up near the top and probably better than team mate Andy who focuses on the Tour. Cavendish will score more this year, one motive is to make sure he scores UCI points to give him more team mates for the World Championships.
Two guys, Farrar and JRod are tied with 2000 points. While JRod could have as good or better year just by winning a few more races he, like Cancellara, had an exceptional year and it will be difficult to repeat. And his race program will be of critical importance, If he peaks for the Giro, a race he didn’t do last year that will affect his Ardennes and Tour results. Farrar being a sprinter will have many opportunities to score and the improvements in his team’s speed might give him the edge he needs to improve his score.
Last two guys, Gilbert and Nibali. Nibali is focussed on the Giro this year, good chance for him to equal last years total of one GT victory but what about the rest of his year. To equal his score again this year requires he focus on more than the Giro. If he says he will defend his Vuelta title he is probably a lock to earn his 26 pt. price. I don’t know his plans so I can’t say. Gilbert . . . Never, never, ever bet against Gilbert. :-)
My top five would be 1. Cavendish at 24 points
2. Farrar at 26 points
3. Gilbert at 28 points
4. JRod at 24 points
5. Nibali at 26 points
The next four guys on the list Evans, Hushovd, Boonen and Samuel Gonzalez could easily make this 24 pt. club next year So it’s not necessarily the top 5. Other dark horses too Gesink, Boss Hog and (yuck) Ricco.
by flying dog on Jan 17, 2011 10:36 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Cancellara is a metronome.
2008: 1622 points. I looked at him for 2009, and thought ‘No way he’ll make that again without the Olympics.’ I was wrong.
2009: 1727 points, despite being sick all spring. I was so sure I’d made the right decision when he missed out on the classics…then he won Suisse, and pulled in lots of points in the Tour, Vuelta, and Worlds to actually exceed ’08.
2010: 1736. Virtually identical to ’09.
Now, after three years of high totals where the spread is barely a hundred points, you might think he’s due an off year. But I wouldn’t count on it—he misses one opportunity to earn points, he makes up for it elsewhere.
It definitely got played into the ground. Even I was flinching after a while--Tyler Farrar, on that Transitions ad.
My problem is that he constantly costs a higher price for his scored points than most other top riders.
And like you say he’s like “a metronome”, I wouldn’t expect him to score more than he did the last few years so he remains a solid top 10 pick but if you can only pick one of those guys in his price range you need to hope for more if you want to win.
Ricco is a really tempting dark horse.
There seem to be a lot of people who are pretty convinced that it’s not all EPO with him, that he is genuinely talented to start with. I just have no idea how to evaluate the merits of that, but it’s hard to dismiss.
And yeah, yuck.
Yeah, seems to be one of those ex-dopers who comes back strong...
Like Basso and Scarponi, for instance.
And if you really want to roll the dice (and feel dirty), there’s DiLuca.
What else can I say? I'm really happy. --Vincenzo Nibali
I was talking about going dirty this time
but it’s hard to pull that trigger now that it’s crunch time. As Ed says: “Yuck”
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
DiLuca is good for one thing: He makes Ricco look like an alter boy.
"I briefly played on a soccer team where we took great joy yelling 'come on fuschia'" by Willj
by JustJoshinYa on Jan 17, 2011 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
No he doesn't..he's just more sneaky.
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Nibali may very well be worthy as well
going into the giro to win it, still could try to defend the Vuelta, and you could expect him to podium in any stage race he tries for.
DISCLAIMER: Anything I say is ultimately blinded by my ridiculously unnecessary love for all things Cancellara, or Schleck related....
There, you have been warned.
Is he doing the Vuelta? I thought he was going to ride for Basso in the Tour?
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
If he rode the Vuelta to defend,
I still don’t think he’d be likely to outdo his 2010 result because he got on the podium helping Basso.
I suppose if he rode all three GTs, or won minor stage races/day races, he could exceed his 2010 score.
It's kind of hard to see Nibali outdoing 2010...
Though he didn’t do much in the Ardennes races unlike some of the other big GT guys… that’s an area for possible improvement. I think he’d be crazy to ride 3 GTs, and he seems like a guy who knows when to work and when to rest.
I’d hate to see him ride the Tour in support of Basso, which is probably a lost cause anyway.
What else can I say? I'm really happy. --Vincenzo Nibali
I agree with that
but I’m confident Nibali will do well too, just maybe not the best gamble at his price.
DISCLAIMER: Anything I say is ultimately blinded by my ridiculously unnecessary love for all things Cancellara, or Schleck related....
There, you have been warned.
Top 25 best priced riders for 2011
based on score-per-point in 2010 (and 2009)
Name Price Q1 Q2 Koldo Fernandez De Larrea 2 122.5000 140.0000 Kris Boeckmans 2 122.5000 - Carlos Sastre Candil 6 114.5000 105.0000 John Gadret 2 102.5000 - Egoi Martinez De Esteban 1 100.0000 345.0000 Raivis Belohvoščiks 1 100.0000 - Chris Horner 10 93.5000 8.7000 Enrique Mata Cabello 1 90.0000 - Oscar Freire Gomez 12 87.1667 45.0000 Romain Feillu 6 85.8333 7.5000 Vincenzo Nibali 26 85.4231 23.0385 Igor Anton Hernandez 12 85.4167 0.8333 Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver 24 83.3333 36.2917 Alexandre Vinokourov 18 82.3333 26.9444 Alexandr Kolobnev 10 81.5000 104.5000 Daniele Bennati 8 81.3750 77.5000 David Millar 8 81.2500 22.5000 Michele Scarponi 16 80.8125 28.5000 Juan Antonio Flecha 10 78.5000 50.5000 Bernhard Eisel 6 78.3333 40.8333 Cadel Evans 22 77.7273 86.7273 Tyler Farrar 26 76.9231 41.9231 Philippe Gilbert 28 76.6071 71.0714 Fränk Schleck 16 76.5000 39.5000 Nicholas Roche 8 76.2500 21.2500
I do shit like this endlessly, and still end up picking the guys I like instead.
It definitely got played into the ground. Even I was flinching after a while--Tyler Farrar, on that Transitions ad.
This is a pretty good metric actually
Most metrics involving statistics are worthless though in my opinion for VDS.
Why? Because values of the riders is assigned by people who use some intangible criteria. The things you are looking for the numbers to show you have already been considered in coming up with the numbers.
This metric actually demonstrates a lot differences from last year. Last year, this list was populated by no name riders who had one or two results.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
I think the criteria for rider values are mostly tangible.
I estimated prices for some of the top riders before the list came out, and I was pretty close in most cases. It’s true that many of the numbers have already been factored into the prices. But the fun (for some of us anyway) is trying to find the places (if any) where we can do a better job of factoring.
What else can I say? I'm really happy. --Vincenzo Nibali
All ready picked my team pretty much...though some will probably change.
Only 1 rider over 18 points and I still have 6 points to play with too after everything was done.
Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!, Tommeke!
I need to resist the desire to spend EVERY POINT.
Distracts from putting the best team together I think.
Optimal Team based on 2010 scores
and 2010 prices, we knew this already:
ITA LIQ Vincenzo Nibali 16 2221
ESP KAT Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver 14 2000
USA GRM Tyler Farrar 20 2000
KAZ AST Alexandre Vinokourov 14 1482
ITA AND Michele Scarponi 8 1293
ESP GCE Luis Leon Sanchez Gil 12 1210
ESP RAB Oscar Freire Gomez 10 1046
CAN GRM Ryder Hesjedal 8 1040
ESP EUS Igor Anton Hernandez 2 1025
AUS SAX Richie Porte 1 1010
USA RSH Chris Horner 4 935
AUS THR Michael Rogers 8 897
BEL VAC Björn Leukemans 4 760
SVK LIQ Peter Sagan 1 697
KAZ AST Maxim Iglinskiy 6 685
ITA VAC Marco Marcato 2 680
GBR GRM David Millar 4 650
IRL ALM Nicholas Roche 4 610
AUS THR Matthew Goss 4 573
ITA CSF Domenico Pozzovivo 2 515
SLO LAM Grega Bole 2 417
ESP EUS Mikel Nieve Iturralde 1 390
RUS KAT Vladimir Gusev 1 370
GER LAM Danilo Hondo 1 367
SLO LAM Simon Spilak 1 340
------+
23213
*** But now with 2011 prices! ***
ITA LIQ Vincenzo Nibali 26 2221
KAZ AST Alexandre Vinokourov 18 1482
ESP RAB Oscar Freire Gomez 12 1046
ESP EUS Igor Anton Hernandez 12 1025
USA RSH Chris Horner 10 935
RUS KAT Alexandr Kolobnev 10 815
ESP SKY Juan Antonio Flecha 10 785
ESP GEO Carlos Sastre Candil 6 687
ITA LEO Daniele Bennati 8 651
GBR GRM David Millar 8 650
FRA VCD Romain Feillu 6 515
ESP EUS Koldo Fernandez De Larrea 2 245
BEL TSV Kris Boeckmans 2 245
FRA ALM John Gadret 2 205
SUI BMC Johann Tschopp 2 135
BEL QST Dries Devenyns 2 135
BEL TSV Johan Coenen 2 135
ESP MOV Jose Ivan Gutierrez Palacios 2 130
BEL QST Kristof Vandewalle 2 130
AUS SKY Mathew Hayman 2 130
UZB VCD Sergey Lagutin 2 130
ESP EUS Egoi Martinez De Esteban 1 100
LAT XYZ Raivis Belohvoščiks 1 100
ESP XYZ Enrique Mata Cabello 1 90
USA THR Caleb Fairly 1 50
------+
12772
you mean I can't make the same team from 2010?
I thought this was a keeper league! I had 5 of the guys on the 2010 ideal team list, and really enjoyed the time we spent together. I’ve grown quite fond of the value they provided for my team at their 2010 prices, and will be heartbroken now that I either have to let them go or pay their new prices.
Bah, homewrecker
You should also ad, that you have contractual obligation to them!
"I love bike races warm up, warm down, cobbles mountains or flats."
perezbike
.
If the seven heads of state all duplicated their 2010 point scores...
their 2011 ultimate values (according to the Unified Field Theory) would be…
1. Nibali +817
2. J-Rod +704
3. Gilbert +633
4. Farrar +488
5. Cancellara +440
6. Cav +245
7. Andy +68
Of course, there is just about zero chance that they’ll duplicate their 2010 scores, so I don’t think this helps much.
What else can I say? I'm really happy. --Vincenzo Nibali
Yes, it does help.
Champ,
I hope this topic gets revisited once everyone has picked their teams.
You are using the VDS game context, but what you are talking about has fan value beyond the game. You can be damn sure Riis, Brunyeel and Vaughters are playing ‘Moneyball’ when evaluating riders. Okay, okay, big pockets Vaughters might not be up to speed, but he talks a good game, so maybe.
In Cycling, the upside / downside for any given rider’s results is hard to predict in any given year, partially because injuries are such a big factor.
Also, when team stuff happens like Devolder’s Flanders wins, is that something ‘hurting’ Boonen’s point total and relative success for those years? Stats say yes, Boonen is less of a rider because his teammate won while he was being marked.
Although no one is thinking about it, Gilbert and Cancellara may have already had their best years. History suggests this might be likely, in fact.
Several people have made lists – suggesting to the punters that the best piece of complimentary information to any of these lists might be a list of the riders’ ages. The younger the better and real young guys that show up with results in the sport are most likely to grow up/blow up into star riders. As cycling becomes cleaner, we will see more riders in the first half of their 20ies whipping the established stars. We hope.
by rubesANdbabes on Jan 19, 2011 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
O/T I can't decide whether to go for Haussler this year.
The team’s so stacked. He could be crowded out by Hushovd and Farrar. There’ll only be a few races to which he’s uniuely suited (admittedly one is a monument).
"...and that's my two cents"
or he could go crazy and win everything if Tyler and Thor have problems...
roll the dice…
"I briefly played on a soccer team where we took great joy yelling 'come on fuschia'" by Willj
by JustJoshinYa on Jan 18, 2011 7:21 PM EST up reply actions
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