FanPost

Some VDS help

Deadlines are nice.. Although if VDS deadline is coming close.. And you tried everything: Stalking Jens for tips, asking the black unicorn to let crash riders to make picks easier, log in to PodiumcafVDS on open library places to hope somebody miracle makes a team for you, flip a coin to decide who's in or out, (this actually take a long time) than there is now.. A little help out.. (anti-climax)

Why should I be the one to help? Well I know a little of cycling.. And can shut out UNBIASED fandomness.. (well sometimes)

First some random thoughts. I will end with a buy or sell advice for some top guys.

First random though. To do well is a little luck, but more skills. Prove? 7 CyclingFever players in the top 25. (Altho this can also be a result of spreading the best buys through each other.. Just saying.. (also a CF player))

Random:

Top 10 last year:

1 28, 18, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (7711->13161)

2 28, 20, 18, 16, 12, 10, 6, 6, 4, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (8286->12528)

3 28, 22, 16, 10, 8, 8, 8, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1 (7941->12295)

4 24, 20, 14, 12, 12, 10, 8, 8, 6, 6, 6, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1  (7337->12146)

5 32, 22, 20, 14, 8, 6, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1 (8151->11869)

6: 16, 14, 14, 14, 12, 12, 10, 8, 6, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1 (6185->11689)

7: 32, 22, 16, 14, 12, 12, 10, 8, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (8154->11591)

8 32, 20, 20, 14, 12, 8, 8, 6, 6, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (7619->11565)

9: 24, 20, 18, 16, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (7757->11526)

10: 32, 22, 16, 12, 12, 10, 6, 6, 6, 4, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (7047->11482)

Bold is best scoring rider. Bold and Italic is second best rider.

What did we learn. It are pretty medicore teams in their structure. (Except number 6!) Top heavy guys, some domestiques and "full of hope" riders. If cycling is not you core business.. Don't let you seduce to other structures. Last year only 3 of the 30 teams with a wild structure,, meaning lots of 12+, lots of 4-10 and lots of 1-2, cracked the 10000+. see here

Also don't overprice your team. The team with the biggest prospect, scored 10757 points in 2009!, did much less in 2010. Points earned in the past.. are no guarantee for points in the future.. The top 10 of those teams did not well.

Ok. Now I just let Ahillock do the talking:

Ideally you need to score 75-90 points per point spent if you want to be competitive in the top 10. If you don’t care about the top 10, then that really doesn’t matter.

The riders that have the greatest upside are those middle group riders: that 10-16 point range. Don’t believe me? Look at last year.

1) 16- Nibali= 599 to 2221
2) 14- Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver= 871 to 2000
3) 14- Vino= 485 to 1482
4) 8- Scarponi= 456 to 1293
5) 14- F. Schleck= 632 to 1224
6) 12- Luis Leon Sanchez Gil= 688 to 1210
7) 10- Oscar Friere= 540 to 1046
8) 8- Ryder Hesjedal= 420 to 1040

(Edit Frinking: Nice list. Altho there are 25 others guys who didn't overdo their price in this area. Don't let them get you)

Obviously there are also examples going the other way. However the top riders (I.e. Gilbert, Contador, Cancellara, Evans, Cavendish…etc.) that will cost you the big bucks 22-28 points are consistent at their point range. They really have reached their “peak” and will either maintain this or decrease in points scored based on condition/injuries during the year. It is very hard for them to increase their point value much more than they have except for a +/- 100 points here or there.

For example:

2009———-2010—-points scored

Gilbert———-1990—————2145
Contador——2222————-1996
Cancellara—-1727————-1736
Cadel Evans——1908———-1710
Cavendish——-1688————-1541
Hushovd———-1560————-1442 (this was saved by him winning Worlds)
A. Schleck————1467————-1364
Samuel Sanchez——-1730———-1345
Tom Boonen——-1525————-1065
Denis Menchov———1610————810

These are just a sampling of riders from the +22 point riders (22-32 points). The one standout was Tyler Farrar last year who at 20 points went from 1090 to 2000.

And Ursula:

The value of the real expensive riders is that you pretty much know what you are getting. Rarely do they go bust. To but them you are buying production at a fairly certain rate. You are buying insurance.

What did we learn. Top guys are there for the save points. Don't take to many. The 8-22 is the group you must nail if you want a good result.

Ok. What does this mean for your team? We need a normal stucture, pick one save top guy +22 for the save points and 3 till 7 10-22 points riders. Pick 6 and 8 pointers at will. Not to many! Than hire some good 1 pointers, yes they are there. Out of decent 1 pointers pick 2 pointers, out of decent 2 pointers, pick 4 pointers. Till you're maxed. (I liked this strategy..)

22+=pick 1 rider
10-22=pick 3-7 riders
6-8= pick 3-5 riders
1-4= the rest

Last random thought: Top 10 last year had a return of 79.9 per point spend.

Ok. That was it

Now to the hire and fire business..

Alberto Contador Velasco. 28 points..(Have to return 2240)

This shouldn't be to hard. You want to be sure that you get the points floating in? Don't take him. In an ideal situation he wins everything what he rides before the Giro + the Giro. Than he will pay you back. But he has to increase his score from last year with 300 points. With the mostly Spanish preparation he rides,  that is almost impossible.. Or.. he has to win LBL and FW. Advice: Don't hire!

Philipe Gilbert 28 points (Have to return 2240 points)

His season last year was outstanding/outrageous. Scored in every classic. Won one and well. a stage in the Vuelta. If he rides the same program as last year it is a don't buy. How in the world can you top that season? However.. The first stages in the Tour are build for Philipe and he wants them. This means, for the circumspect (?) reader POINTS! And Gilbert being Gilbert just also won a stage in the Algavre. So it's not that he's becoming tired of winning.. Altho.. Is it really possible to score that much again in every classic? Verdict: I will let you decide this on your own..

Tyler Farrar 26 points (Have to return 2080 points)

Have to do slightly better than last year. Problems on the horizon? Yes! Can he again top 5 in RvV or cpompensate that? Where can he make up the points in the Giro? (Giro is so heavy there a lesser sprint stages) Answer? Worldchampionship, MSR and the Tour de France. In the WC he is a big favourite. MSR should be do-able, In the Tour he can only do better.  So worth the points? He certainly is.  But just for the save points. Not for a big upset in points.

Vinzenco Nibali 26 points (Have to return 2080 points)

This was the easiest key to succes last year.. Have to score a little less to be again worth his points. And it seems that can be arranged. He just scored 80 points before the Giro. Can improve here. Altho! Can you top a 3rd and 1st place in a GT? Me not to impressed by his skills say he was a little lucky.. And there is not a chance he can do that again. Certainly not with some major results in Emilie and Lombardia at the end. I say don't buy him..

That's it. Your head hurts now. Trying to make English sentences from my sentences.. And my head hurts to. And if somebody wants do discuss the 24 point guys........ Be my guest!

And rereading this it wasn't to helpful. Lots of old and ruminant(?) info. Ah well we have now a nice new fanpost to discuss VDS at will.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Podium Cafe

You must be a member of Podium Cafe to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Podium Cafe. You should read them.

Join Podium Cafe

You must be a member of Podium Cafe to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Podium Cafe. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.