Some VDS help
by Frinking on Feb 17, 2011 6:59 AM EST
Email
PrintDeadlines are nice.. Although if VDS deadline is coming close.. And you tried everything: Stalking Jens for tips, asking the black unicorn to let crash riders to make picks easier, log in to PodiumcafVDS on open library places to hope somebody miracle makes a team for you, flip a coin to decide who's in or out, (this actually take a long time) than there is now.. A little help out.. (anti-climax)
Why should I be the one to help? Well I know a little of cycling.. And can shut out UNBIASED fandomness.. (well sometimes)
First some random thoughts. I will end with a buy or sell advice for some top guys.
First random though. To do well is a little luck, but more skills. Prove? 7 CyclingFever players in the top 25. (Altho this can also be a result of spreading the best buys through each other.. Just saying.. (also a CF player))
Random:
Top 10 last year:
1 28, 18, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (7711->13161)
2 28, 20, 18, 16, 12, 10, 6, 6, 4, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (8286->12528)
3 28, 22, 16, 10, 8, 8, 8, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1 (7941->12295)
4 24, 20, 14, 12, 12, 10, 8, 8, 6, 6, 6, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (7337->12146)
5 32, 22, 20, 14, 8, 6, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1 (8151->11869)
6: 16, 14, 14, 14, 12, 12, 10, 8, 6, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1 (6185->11689)
7: 32, 22, 16, 14, 12, 12, 10, 8, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (8154->11591)
8 32, 20, 20, 14, 12, 8, 8, 6, 6, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (7619->11565)
9: 24, 20, 18, 16, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (7757->11526)
10: 32, 22, 16, 12, 12, 10, 6, 6, 6, 4, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 (7047->11482)
Bold is best scoring rider. Bold and Italic is second best rider.
What did we learn. It are pretty medicore teams in their structure. (Except number 6!) Top heavy guys, some domestiques and "full of hope" riders. If cycling is not you core business.. Don't let you seduce to other structures. Last year only 3 of the 30 teams with a wild structure,, meaning lots of 12+, lots of 4-10 and lots of 1-2, cracked the 10000+. see here
Also don't overprice your team. The team with the biggest prospect, scored 10757 points in 2009!, did much less in 2010. Points earned in the past.. are no guarantee for points in the future.. The top 10 of those teams did not well.
Ok. Now I just let Ahillock do the talking:
Ideally you need to score 75-90 points per point spent if you want to be competitive in the top 10. If you don’t care about the top 10, then that really doesn’t matter.
The riders that have the greatest upside are those middle group riders: that 10-16 point range. Don’t believe me? Look at last year.
1) 16- Nibali= 599 to 2221
2) 14- Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver= 871 to 2000
3) 14- Vino= 485 to 1482
4) 8- Scarponi= 456 to 1293
5) 14- F. Schleck= 632 to 1224
6) 12- Luis Leon Sanchez Gil= 688 to 1210
7) 10- Oscar Friere= 540 to 1046
8) 8- Ryder Hesjedal= 420 to 1040(Edit Frinking: Nice list. Altho there are 25 others guys who didn't overdo their price in this area. Don't let them get you)
Obviously there are also examples going the other way. However the top riders (I.e. Gilbert, Contador, Cancellara, Evans, Cavendish…etc.) that will cost you the big bucks 22-28 points are consistent at their point range. They really have reached their “peak” and will either maintain this or decrease in points scored based on condition/injuries during the year. It is very hard for them to increase their point value much more than they have except for a +/- 100 points here or there.
For example:
2009———-2010—-points scored
Gilbert———-1990—————2145
Contador——2222————-1996
Cancellara—-1727————-1736
Cadel Evans——1908———-1710
Cavendish——-1688————-1541
Hushovd———-1560————-1442 (this was saved by him winning Worlds)
A. Schleck————1467————-1364
Samuel Sanchez——-1730———-1345
Tom Boonen——-1525————-1065
Denis Menchov———1610————810These are just a sampling of riders from the +22 point riders (22-32 points). The one standout was Tyler Farrar last year who at 20 points went from 1090 to 2000.
And Ursula:
The value of the real expensive riders is that you pretty much know what you are getting. Rarely do they go bust. To but them you are buying production at a fairly certain rate. You are buying insurance.
What did we learn. Top guys are there for the save points. Don't take to many. The 8-22 is the group you must nail if you want a good result.
Ok. What does this mean for your team? We need a normal stucture, pick one save top guy +22 for the save points and 3 till 7 10-22 points riders. Pick 6 and 8 pointers at will. Not to many! Than hire some good 1 pointers, yes they are there. Out of decent 1 pointers pick 2 pointers, out of decent 2 pointers, pick 4 pointers. Till you're maxed. (I liked this strategy..)
22+=pick 1 rider
10-22=pick 3-7 riders
6-8= pick 3-5 riders
1-4= the rest
Last random thought: Top 10 last year had a return of 79.9 per point spend.
Ok. That was it
Now to the hire and fire business..
Alberto Contador Velasco. 28 points..(Have to return 2240)
This shouldn't be to hard. You want to be sure that you get the points floating in? Don't take him. In an ideal situation he wins everything what he rides before the Giro + the Giro. Than he will pay you back. But he has to increase his score from last year with 300 points. With the mostly Spanish preparation he rides, that is almost impossible.. Or.. he has to win LBL and FW. Advice: Don't hire!
Philipe Gilbert 28 points (Have to return 2240 points)
His season last year was outstanding/outrageous. Scored in every classic. Won one and well. a stage in the Vuelta. If he rides the same program as last year it is a don't buy. How in the world can you top that season? However.. The first stages in the Tour are build for Philipe and he wants them. This means, for the circumspect (?) reader POINTS! And Gilbert being Gilbert just also won a stage in the Algavre. So it's not that he's becoming tired of winning.. Altho.. Is it really possible to score that much again in every classic? Verdict: I will let you decide this on your own..
Tyler Farrar 26 points (Have to return 2080 points)
Have to do slightly better than last year. Problems on the horizon? Yes! Can he again top 5 in RvV or cpompensate that? Where can he make up the points in the Giro? (Giro is so heavy there a lesser sprint stages) Answer? Worldchampionship, MSR and the Tour de France. In the WC he is a big favourite. MSR should be do-able, In the Tour he can only do better. So worth the points? He certainly is. But just for the save points. Not for a big upset in points.
Vinzenco Nibali 26 points (Have to return 2080 points)
This was the easiest key to succes last year.. Have to score a little less to be again worth his points. And it seems that can be arranged. He just scored 80 points before the Giro. Can improve here. Altho! Can you top a 3rd and 1st place in a GT? Me not to impressed by his skills say he was a little lucky.. And there is not a chance he can do that again. Certainly not with some major results in Emilie and Lombardia at the end. I say don't buy him..
That's it. Your head hurts now. Trying to make English sentences from my sentences.. And my head hurts to. And if somebody wants do discuss the 24 point guys........ Be my guest!
And rereading this it wasn't to helpful. Lots of old and ruminant(?) info. Ah well we have now a nice new fanpost to discuss VDS at will.
319 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
You're trying to get us to re-Frink our teams, aren't you? (<- see what I did there?)
Well, I’m not listening.
Cycling is the reason for my life - D. Bennati
Oh I won't.
I intend to take full pwnership of my own suckage.
Cycling is the reason for my life - D. Bennati
Thanks Frinking!
I’m hoping we get lots more posts from you this year once the VDS season kicks off.
And the UCI failed… on all accounts. - tgsgirl
I used a whole different strategy
I looked for young riders with a steady increase in cq points year-after-year
+ the have to have leadership opportunities on their team
+ riders for classics, grand tours and smaller tours
I think that is a great strategy. That is what I have been doing as well.
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
Massive work Frinking
El Frinkerino is obviously hard at work defending his place from last year. With this much work and ambition he is bound to drop out of the Top 200. The VDS gods are cruel.
My bags are guaranteed sand-free.
Ask me whether detailed statistical analyses guarantee VDS success.
Go on—I dare you.
It's really cool--Heinrich Haussler, on Barbie Barbie
So, majope, tell me
Does detailed statistical analysis guarantee VDS success?
by EdredonBrowny on Feb 17, 2011 8:19 AM EST up reply actions
Oh. Oh dear.
If anyone needs me, I’ve got my nose in a filing cabinet, checking my affairs are in order.
by EdredonBrowny on Feb 17, 2011 8:37 AM EST up reply actions
If I ask someone to explain
The black unicorn, am I automatically cursed or cast out of VDS? Note I am just asking about asking, not asking!
"Poorly thought-through ill-advised action, done swiftly " is our motto - Jens
by platypus on Feb 17, 2011 11:27 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Unicorns, it turns out, are very interested in cycling.
Massive.. Nah
I was hired to deliver things by bike between 3 and 7 last night.. But they didn’t need me anymore. So time enough..
Great, now I am scraping my team and starting over.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Totally revised team
Lower start this time around 8500 w/ potential to go over 11500+
But I’ll be happy with a top 100 this time around. Still got in 3hrs on the bike w/105 minutes at tempo. Less than 30 minutes to revise team. Got the kids bathed and fed and put to bed. Got to be tied Frinking 1 – sminer1
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
i note
a serious lack of discussion of the lower point riders. I guess you just forgot to include that.
O/T-ish Oman stage 3 result:
1.Theo Bos
2. Daniele Bennatti
3. Matthew Goss
Theo, kicking some butt in Oman!
"I love bike races warm up, warm down, cobbles mountains or flats."
perezbike
.
Kicking some butt...
at least he wasn’t throwing down.
Cycling is the reason for my life - D. Bennati
yes, and Bennati is collecting 2nd places at a similar pace to my VDS
rotation process.
VDS rotation process!
Now I have a name, to what I am spending every free moment of my day.
"I love bike races warm up, warm down, cobbles mountains or flats."
perezbike
.
Er,are you typing on an iPhone?
"Poorly thought-through ill-advised action, done swiftly " is our motto - Jens
by platypus on Feb 17, 2011 11:29 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
so,
is menchov going to be able to find a way to ride in some GTs this year? I remember reading someone’s analysis of the teams that might get an invite to the giro and not liking geox’s odds.
Serious and totally honest answers only please.
The Vuelta doesn't seem to hard to come in I guess..
Giro will be al lot harder.. Don’t think they get in but Geox still rides a very decent Spanish orientated PT program with also the Dauphine or Suisse..
Agreed
Mench at 12 is a great buy if he does 2 GT’s. But I also think it is looking shaky for him to do the Giro. And I don’t see the small Spanish stage races making up for that.
This is serious, honest butnot very well informed
Isn’t it true that Geox didn’t get invited to several of the traditional lead up races like Tirreno. I’m just comparing their program to the program BMC had last year in it’s hunt for invites. Doesn’t look good. I thought about Menchov, held talks even, but didn’t hire him.
"Poorly thought-through ill-advised action, done swiftly " is our motto - Jens
by platypus on Feb 17, 2011 10:45 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Realize that I am not counting on much from Menchov in the smaller stage races.
It is interesting with Grand Tour favorites. Some of them get a lot of extra points in the week long stage races while others don’t.
yeah, since the two GTs that he could potentially ride are both terrible courses for him (and he’s getting older) it’s hard to see a big point haul unless he scores in two or three smaller stage races too, and will they get the invites? I had him early, and fired him. Two top 5s in GTs and some small races would be a good socre, but if he drops 5 min on early mountains in either GT I can see him giving up on the GC rather than fighting tooth and nail for 5th place as a less accomplished rider might do.
Menchov the Mosquera from this year?
Mosquera gained 845 points last year. Is worth 10.5 points.. This is only when Menchov rides the Vuelta and get second. You do the math if he’s also going to challenge other minor stages..
I just meant not looking good to get invited
To the Giro and not many chances to prove that they should be.
"Poorly thought-through ill-advised action, done swiftly " is our motto - Jens
by platypus on Feb 17, 2011 11:21 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
My thinking was if they don't get a Giro invite, he'll just leave
But that was when the SBS rumors were happening.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Yea but.......Which 12 pt. rider from Rabo?
Oscarito- Classics Old guy-104.6 pt/pt- 2yr total = 1586
Breschel- Classics young guy-53.4 pt/pt- 2 yr. total = 1725
Now you see the delema?
Unable to properly calculate a 2 yr. pt/pt
Soli Deo Gloria
Breschel's interesting...
I love the guy, and not sure if I’m being objective, but -
the knee op was scar tissue removal, and the docs said the outcome was ideal. I think that means mechanically his knee is likely to be in better shape than when it was bothering him before. If the main issue is just aerobic fitness recovery – he went into the op in great form (WCRR), and was back on the bike by early Jan. It’s unlikely he’s in top shape by RVV and Roubaix, but not impossible. Elite athletes’ reactions to enforced complete rest are not always predictable, highly variable between individuals and type of injury of course, but there are certainly cases in distance running of guys breaking records shortly after enforced rest from illness. And Breschel actually got most of his points later in the season last year.
Am I just talking myself into this because I like him? Such a classy rider, I think he will be a 2000-pointer within a couple of years.
In addition to the knee issue, we have a slight unknown factor with the team change.
Breschel rode 6 years on Riis team. Sometimes a change can provide immediate results, but other times things can go very wrong initially.
Yep
And in particular here. On the one hand he no longer has Cancellara over him in the Classics. On the other, hows Rabo outside of Oscarito been doing in the spring lately in those races that Breschel favors?
The Cancellara removal is a big plus for Breschel, but it also puts
big pressure on the guy. Still think the team change will be negative on balance this year.
yup, any way you look at it is a gamble
I’m discovering the unfortunate difficulty with VDS – I will be so annoyed if I don’t pick Breschel and he does well, that I’m almost obliged to pick him, even if the risk doesn’t justify it
Yes, that is a problem...
I find that once I have hired someone, I am scared to then fire them in case they have a 150:1 points ratio this year. So, still working with a 47-man roster. I just have to hope for a bunch of injuries and positives in the next few days.
What else can I say? I'm really happy. --Vincenzo Nibali
I hear you, but that’s the part I’m least worried about. He’s undisputed leader now in the races he’s best at, and he strikes me as a pretty strong-minded independent guy, not someone who relies on a whole entourage or a particular DS. Different style of racer, but mentally I see him thriving like Oscarito did here.
yes, strong mentality and very driven, all positives imo, but it could be
a handfull for the Oranje intially.
Awesome handicapping
I’ve followed the forum for a long while, but my first year doing this – really well thought out structure, and I’m totally impressed with the work Chris et al. have done on pricing. It’s almost impossible to find any significantly mispriced riders, so I’ve had a really interesting time reading about a lot of guys that I knew nothing about - however my team crashes and burns, I’m looking forward to this season like never before.
Boonen is priced a little low
But I’m sure it has nothing to do with Chris wanting him on his team at a slight bargain. Boonen could easily top 2000 if he’s in the form he had last year and stays free of injury.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
hmm...
I think Boonen’s priced just right given his last season, and given the fact that he would not have scored quite so much in his huge years if Cance had been at the peak he’s at now. Not to mention he’s probably barely top 5 in a GT bunch sprint now, whilst at his peak he was top 2.
Pricing isn't judged fairly by last season, there's a lot of speculating that goes into pricing.
Seems like a fun game the pricing people play with us. There are plenty of guys who are really over priced if you look at last seasons performance.
Boonen would have definitely contended for the Green jersey last year had he not been injured. I shouldn’t say he’s a shoe in for 2000 points, he has to podium in the big sprints to gather more points and that’s going to be tough for him now.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Boonen's an interesting pick
His days of dominating are past, like 5 years past, but he’s not old, and is coming off injuries and seems hungry. I can imagine a 500 point gain for him if he gets a little luck on his side.
I always favor motivation and self belief as the main factors.
I can usually tell by looking at the faces of rugby or AFL players while they are singing the national anthem who is going to win the game. So that’s the filter I apply to my picks. Who looks good and who has the fire in the belly. Aldo Sassi said performance is more about what’s going on in the riders head.
"Poorly thought-through ill-advised action, done swiftly " is our motto - Jens
by platypus on Feb 17, 2011 11:36 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I totally agree
I’m on the fence of actually putting together a team with him on it, shocking as that seems.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
O/T Algarve stage 2 results, Gilbert leads GC.
1º John Degenkolb (HTC-Highroad), 4h57m56s
2º Tyler Farrar (Garmin.Cervélo), mt
3º Michael Matthews (Rabobank), mt
4º Baden Cooke (Saxo Bank-Sungard), mt
5º Sebastien Hinault (AG2r),mt
6º Philippe Gilbert (Omega Pharma), mt
7º Filipe Cardoso (Barbot-Siper), mt
8º Fabian Wegmann (Leopard-Trek), mt
9º Gerald Ciolek (Quick-Step), mt
10º Dmitry Fofonov (Astana), mt
And I have 2 of these guys
Feeling good for VDS – no one prick my pre-season optimism please!
"Poorly thought-through ill-advised action, done swiftly " is our motto - Jens
by platypus on Feb 17, 2011 11:16 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
bugger
I thought my 2-pointers were settled, but now I’m looking at Baden again. Two stages he does this now. Can Riis work his Tarantino-esque magic with another Travolta of the peloton? Cooke’s career is a bizarre mystery to me, how did he end up doing the thankless job he’s done for the past few seasos for Riis? SBS certainly don’t have much else to work with in spring.
Is Baden off contract next year?
Plenty of incentive to impress if he is- looking for a contract with GreenEdge
"Poorly thought-through ill-advised action, done swiftly " is our motto - Jens
by platypus on Feb 17, 2011 11:24 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Reding your sentences is a pleasure Frinking
It’s kind of like the bonus points for a VDS dark horse, you get more than you bargained for!
"Poorly thought-through ill-advised action, done swiftly " is our motto - Jens
by platypus on Feb 17, 2011 11:14 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Menchov talk gets to to Contador
With all riders you want them to score substantially higher than the year before. But how realistic is that? With Bert if you think he will beat the doping charge all year (a big IF) then you are hoping for something over 2200 points as Frinking says. How realistic is that?
Very.
He normally picks up 850-1100 points before his first Grand Tour. His schedule this year is set up to do the same. Then comes the Giro. Pencil in another 800-1000. Then comes the big question: will Bert ride a second Grand Tour? If he does-especialy if it is the Vuelta where he will have plenty of rest before hand with a tune-up race, you are looking at another 800-1200. That leaves him at 2700 if you give him 900 points for each of the three sections of his calendar.
So 28 points for him is a bargain. But there’s that big IF…(and realize I am not asking for input on if he gets busted or not.)
Seems pretty clear now that Bert will ride every GT he can until the CAS either ban him or clear him…. ultimate irony would be that he now wins all 3 GTs in a row, something he never would have attempted (at least not this year) without the case hanging over him. It’s not beyond imagination….
That would be amazing.
I was thinking that too.
"Poorly thought-through ill-advised action, done swiftly " is our motto - Jens
by platypus on Feb 17, 2011 11:39 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
But I don't think he can do it.
Maybe, perhaps, podium in three.
"Poorly thought-through ill-advised action, done swiftly " is our motto - Jens
by platypus on Feb 17, 2011 11:40 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
If UCI/WADA appeals and the case runs when the TdF starts, I think there is very little
chance of Contador starting.
Of course, but say there’s a 5-10% chance that he’s not ultimately banned by CAS. If he wins Giro and TdF, certainly not an unreasonable proposition at all, I think it is almost 100% certain that he would go for the triple. So maybe there’s a 1% chance overall of him winning all 3 GTs this year. I’m wondering, under normal circumstances, do I have a 1% chance of winning VDS?
Exactly... we talk about safe 18+ers
He’s the exception that proves the rule… a very expensive risk.
by EdredonBrowny on Feb 17, 2011 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
Contador's the only guy
I can really imagine getting 3000 points this year, except maybe Gilbert if absolutely everything went right, or maybe, just maybe, J-Rod if we still haven’t see his best (just based on his race program)
I'm skeptical about Contador...
Because we don’t know how much (if any) of his previous performances were dope-enhanced. Assuming that he is not as crazy as Ricco and will now race clean knowing all eyes are on his test results, I would expect at least a small drop in his performance level. Also of course he is under tremendous stress due to the ongoing process. Very risky.
I could definitely imagine Gilbert getting to 3000, though. Is there any reason he couldn’t win two monuments (or more???) and the WC?
What else can I say? I'm really happy. --Vincenzo Nibali
Gilbert
The way I see it, the non-Grand Tour elite riders like Phil have a harder time of reaching 3000 because they have to peak more often during the year. Gilbert IMO could win all 5 Monuments, the WC RR, some smaller stage races and loads of Grand Tour stages. But to win most of those in a given year he needs to maintain a very high level all season. Doable, but tough.
For me, Gilbert is 100% worth it unless/until injury.
He’s out to play when all the others are dying.
It’s just that his 28 point cost contains enough points to make a very strong B team. Minimum 3 roster spots, and realistically, about 7 spots.
He’s easily more than 10 points better than Menchov or EBH as far as certitude of performance goes.
And, he’s on the hunt.
by rubesANdbabes on Feb 17, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Agree, Gilbert is worth every point, but can he outperform?
I believe he will score close to 3000 points at some point in his career. He is still improving, so it could be this year, but he will not only have to be very good, luck will be needed too.
In this game, every rider needs luck.
Especially health wise.
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
Agree, but for Gilbert to get close to 3000 points,
he must have luck all season and in most races he enters. A puncture in the last 50KM of RVV, and he is gone etc. Clearly a GC rider also needs luck, but there are more ways to compensate I think.
It is Gilbert you are talking about though. :)
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
I don't think he can win P-R
But the rest – yes
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
and will now race clean
he may take less clenbuterol … but the effective and ubiquitous blood doping will be continued by all (I am “guessing”)
#colourmecycnical
moo
I'm thinking that rather depends on what other evidence
may be in the appeals
"Poorly thought-through ill-advised action, done swiftly " is our motto - Jens
Rujano?
Does anyone know what’s happening with the little guy?
Androni are supposed to be putting him in the Giro, and if he’s actually on a bike somewhere east of Caracas it seems almost obligatory to blow 2 points on him for potential entertainment value. But I thought he was supposed to ride some South American races as prep, and there’s nothing in CQ. He seems to be on the start list for Laigueglia, but I apart from that I can’t find any recent info at all.
stats? what are these stats you talk about?
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
by umwolverine on Feb 17, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
Gilbert 2.0
Last year very few people put their points on Gilbert even though he scored some 1900+ points the year before. I suppose the reasoning was, “Is he for real?” By that it was meant as can he keep that up or was his season ending hot streak just that, a hot streak. Turns out he did better last year.
So now we have Nibali, Is he for real? Frinky seems to think, not quite, that he was a little lucky. But why not? Last year he was a not very poor man’s Contador circa 2008: not slated for the Giro then rides it and comes in 3rd, then cleans up in the Vuelta. Plus he does very well in the smaller stage races and the year end hilly Classics on home turf.
I think Nibs is for real, but the tours he will ride are Giro and (possibly) Vuelta
…and neither course suits him perfectly. Of course he can still do it, but ideally he’d like lots of downhill finishishes, not so many ultra-steep montaintop. And more TT.
I wish he weren’t on Basso’s team, because I think he’d beat Schleck in this years TdF, but I don’t think Basso will. I would have loved to see Nibs win TdF and then go into Vuelta in a relaxed frame of mind. As it is, I don’t think he wins Giro, and then goes into Vuelta with pressure.
Nibali is for real imo.
The fact that Nibali can perform over most of the season, puts him up there with the best. He is not as “real” as Gilbert or Contador, simply because I think he lacks the “killer” part of the best talents. Solid mentality, good TT’er, climbs well. Good overall package, but without the killer part, its going to be difficult for him to climb to the highest spot on the podium multiple times/year over the best part of his career. I think he is priced a bit high and will have difficulty in providing upside.
Tend to agree, but then again...
I also thought he was toast on Bola del Mundo, and it turned out he had kept quite a bit in reserve. Sometimes the soft-spoken guys turn out to be pretty tough.
What else can I say? I'm really happy. --Vincenzo Nibali
Clearly, the guy is very good.
However, I still think better climbers would have beaten Nibali that day including Schlecklet, Anton and Contador. So the question is this: Will Nibali become even better at climbing, i.e. more explosive? My answer today is no, but I could very well be wrong.
I don't necessarily see him getting more explosive...
And perhaps he will never win a lot of climbing stages. But if he can continue to develop what he showed in the Vuelta—the ability to diesel onwards under all circumstances, plus a great internal stopwatch—he could be competitive with the Schlecky types. Not as exciting, perhaps, but effective.
What else can I say? I'm really happy. --Vincenzo Nibali
Ullrich type without the additional weight?
Its been successful before.
He sure looks like a killer to me.
I can’t remember a single time I saw Nibali really falter and I still say he was better than Basso in the Giro. Admittedly, I saw less than a third of the Vuelta, but then again, he won.
I loved him on my team last year and I think he will pay off this year. But my strategy, clearly foolish if judged by last year’s top 10 point distributions, is lower point guys with high upside.
by sebastiandeluded on Feb 17, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
Agree, Nibali is a better package than Basso, but I still think both of them
lacks the killer part of a super talent. Something that can make the difference when up against the very best when it matters most. I guess we will see Nibali getting maximum tested in this years Giro. If he wins, I will loose.
EPO= killer part?
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Well, Basso doped, but he still lacked the killer action.
I think most of the top guys dopes. Some have killer talent other not.
A lot of us (me included) have been inclined to think Nibali would not have won the Vuelta...
…had Anton not crashed. And that may well be true—Anton might well have destroyed everyone on Bola del Mundo. But there is a bit of a question as to how he would have fared in the long TT.
What else can I say? I'm really happy. --Vincenzo Nibali
I didn't know a lot about the riders last year, so I'm not the best person to talk about this.
But I think the rider pricing this year makes the game much harder. I think the pricing is really good and you have to make really tough choices. Last year’s dominate strategy may not work – there’s a lot of good cheap riders out there.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
I agree with the others regarding the pricing this year. I wouldn't call it "over priced" but I would
say that it appears the cost has been shifted towards riders being more expensive this year? Maybe not. Just wanted to add a few thoughts to those already mentioned.
Cadel Evans 22 ponints (Have to return 1760 points)
I know he is well loved on here. However 2011 is going to be different than 2010. Not only is BMC a PT team now but as a result Cadel is not going to be racing as many races as last year. According to Cadel there will be no Liege-Bastogne-Liege for him (was 4th there last year for 250 points). The only spring classics on his schedule for 2011 are Amstel Gold and Fleche. He also won’t be going to the Giro where he scored 815 points (~50%) of his points last year. He is doing this to make sure he is fresh for the TdF. His plan is to have ~30 days of racing in his legs compared to the 50 he usually does.
To prepare for the TdF he will race TA (3rd last year), Catalunya, Romandie and Tour de Suisse. Then he will ride the Vuelta after the Tour.
So the question is can he make up ~1065points from last year (Liege and Giro) based on not riding those races this year? He should do better in the TdF this year where he only netted 55 points. However there is a full group of talented riders also looking to score well; A. Schleck, Gesink, Van Den Broeck, S. Sanchez and the big elephant (Contador). I don’t think a top 5 is a given for Evans. He is 34. In the past 40 years, guess the number of riders who won their first TdF title at 34 years old or older? Anyone….anyone? None.
Merckx: 24
Luis Ocana: 28
Bernard Thevenet: 27
Van Impe: 29
Bernard Hinault: 23
Zoetemelk: 33
Laurent Fignon: 22
LeMond: 25
Roche: 27
DelGado: 28
Indurain: 27
Riis: 32
Ullrich: 23
Pantani: 28
Armstrong: 27
Pereiro: 28
Contador: 24
Sastre: 33
If he doesn’t get hurt, I think Cadel should be able to get in the top 10 for GC. Top 5 is not impossible, but I’m not sure it is very likely. I would guess he scores ~350-400 points at this years TdF. Then there is the Vuelta. Not sure how it suits him but he should be able to get close to the top 5, if not place inside it. So maybe another ~400-450 points? He has also stated that he won’t ride Worlds this year.
I think he is a tough pick. If he can pick up some extra points in Catalunya/Romandie/Suisse, place decently well in the TdF (top 10) and in the Vuelta (top 5) he will probably get close to his point value for 2010.
So just a quick mental estimate on how he might score in 2011:
TA/Catalunya/Romandie/Suisse: probably net him somewhere in the 400-500 point range total for those.
Amstel/Fleche: probably net him around 250-300 points total
TdF: probably net him around ~350-400 points
Vuelta: probably net him around ~400-450 points
So total I would estimate from a low of 1400 to a high of 1650. That puts him fairly close to his goal. But it is highly dependent upon him also riding the Vuelta. I think he could be a great buy at 22 points. Not sure he will break 2000 points but he should get you at least close to his last years point value. Throw in some good luck and who knows what might happen.
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
by Ahillock on Feb 17, 2011 11:37 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Very useful, this.
Evans all-in plan for an assault on the yellow jersey makes him a relatively high risk bet imo. Only diff between Evans and A Schleck, would be Evans’ capability to perform at the Vuelta if he fails at the Tour. A bit of insurance there.
True ragarding the Vuelta for Evans.
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
Deadline
One week to go, plus change. There is a link on the "My Team" page (after you log in) to a popup window that displays the exact time. Or here: http://www.podiumcafevds.com/deadline.php?y=2011
So,
what’s Richie Porte going to do this year? Can he take another step up or was that about as well as he can do? Will he ever be able to climb well enough to really contest a GT? How will Contador’s presence/absence hurt/help him?
I am already on the record of saying Porte will become a great rider,
so whatever comes along here will be very biased. If Porte can get his weight right (lower without sacrificing too much TT power and uphill explosiveness) he will improve his overall climbing skills. With the right weight, Porte will end up on the Podium in the Tour imo, however this process will take time and experience, i.e. we are more than 12 months away from that to happen. This year, I believe Porte will start two GT’s and I think he will take another top 10 in one of them.
So where are the rest of the points going to come from? Hilly stages races with a long TT are very good bets along with 1 day hilly classics, preferably with an uphill finish. Porte is very explosive uphill, but he lacks experience.
Overall, I think Porte will have difficulty in outperforming this year (Contador uncertainty, weight, experience) against his VDS cost, however whoever follows him will be in for a great ride. I personally can’t wait to see him in action again.
Porte managed a top 10 in the Giro (even without the lucky break) and
and 10 placement in San Seb after attacking on one of the climbs. In ToB he attacked on the steep hill on a key stage leaving to a fouth place over all. The part thats missing in the puzzle imo, are the long climbs. Keep in mind we are dealing with a rider with only 1 year results behind him, so my view of him is to some degree speculative.
O/T Oman results Stage 4, Uphill finish (early)
Winner: Gesink
Overall: Gesink
Note: sporadic info
From ToO twitter
In order of finishing: R. Gesink, E.B Hagen, D. Devenysns, G. Visconti, C. Vandevelde, G. Van Avermaet, M. Monfort, M. Albasini. J. Giannoni
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Feb 18, 2011 7:04 AM EST up reply actions
I've seen 44 secs
And I realized this morning that Swedish Tv10 shows recaps of the stages, with that Australian guy. They’re showing 30 minutes of yesterday’s stage just right now.
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Feb 18, 2011 7:18 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, what I saw first on Twitter was "more than 40 seconds."
The exact figure came up later.
It's really cool--Heinrich Haussler, on Barbie Barbie
Yeah, 44 seconds...
Top 9 (oddly) is here.
Maybe, TT is 18.5Km with two small hills.
Gesink speaks of improved TT skills. Now we will see.
Yeah, I just looked up their h2h
They haven’t race against each other much. Only recent was last year’s TdF. Eddy gained 20 seconds on Gesink in a 9km prologue. Gesink beat him in the TT stage (but that’s hardly comparable after 20 days of racing)
I think it will be close.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
No way..
EBH surpassed Cancellara last year in this TT.. With his climb skills, tt skills and form.. This is going to be a gap of 1.45.. At least..
There's also another sprint stage, isn't there?
EBH could pick up a few bonus seconds if he finishes in top 3 again there.
It's really cool--Heinrich Haussler, on Barbie Barbie
Stage 4 results,
1 Robert Gesink (Rabobank)
2 Edvald Boasson Hagen (Sky) 0:44
3 Dries Devenyns (Quick Step) 0:51
4 Giovanni Visconti (Farnese Vini) 0:53
5 Christian Vandevelde (Garmin-Cervélo) 0:53
6 Greg Van Avermaet (BMC) 1:02
7 Maxime Monfort (Leopard-Trek) 1:02
8 Michael Albasini (HTC-Highroad) 1:02
9 Juan Antonio Flecha (Sky) 1:02
10 Patrick Sinkewitz (Farnese Vini)
Some surprises here, I think
Good for Van Avermaet.
Maybe he is going to have a good year…[goes back and looks again at VDS team].
It's really cool--Heinrich Haussler, on Barbie Barbie
hehe
I’ve got both Gesink and Greg (and i’ve submitted a couple of days ago)
I’m hoping Greg has another year like his rookie year where he scored both on cobbles and in stage races.
I'm quite pleased to see
Devenyns up there – he’s joining Bobby G on my VDS squad this year. Am fighting the idea that this might be his best result of the year.
by EdredonBrowny on Feb 18, 2011 8:03 AM EST up reply actions
told you it was the change of teams
me and the white unicorn are, like, really tight
"Poorly thought-through ill-advised action, done swiftly " is our motto - Jens
Etapa 4: 1. Robert Gesink (Rabobank) (PALMARES COMPLETO)
2. Edvald Boasson Hagen (Sky) a 47
3. Dries Devenyns (Quick Step) a 51
4. Giovanni Visconti (Farnese Vini) a 53
5. Christian Vandevelde (Garmin-Cervélo) m.t.
6. Greg Van Avermaet (BMC) a 1:02
7. Maxime Monfort (Leopard-Trek) m.t.
8. Michael Albasini (HTC-Highroad) m.t.
9. Juan Antonio Flecha (Sky) a 1:12
10. Patrick Sinkewitz (Farnese Vini) a 1:12
Man, now I can't even remember
if I fired Albasini or kept him
"Poorly thought-through ill-advised action, done swiftly " is our motto - Jens
11. Cancellara
I am preatty happy with my performance.11place On top finish… Crazy uphill 38-28gears had on.
Ok you can stop now. The perfect team is made.
Rabo, orange and soon te be Rabo:
1. NED RAB PRT Robert Gesink 18 1273 delete
2. ESP RAB PRT Luis Leon Sanchez Gil 16 1210 delete
3. ESP EUS PRT Igor Anton Hernandez 12 1025 delete
4. DEN RAB PRT Matti Breschel 12 855 delete
5. ESP RAB PRT Oscar Freire Gomez 12 1046 delete
6. RUS GEO PROF Denis Menchov 12 810 delete
7. AUS RAB PRT Graeme Brown 8 430 delete
8. GER RAB PRT Paul Martens 8 485 delete
9. NED RAB PRT Lars Boom 6 288 delete
10. NED RAB PRT Bauke Mollema 6 375 delete
11. ESP RAB PRT Carlos Barredo Llamazales 4 270 delete
12. NED RAB PRT Theo Bos 4 220 delete
13. FRA QST PRT Sylvain Chavanel 4 220 delete
14. NED RAB PRT Sebastian Langeveld 4 210 delete
15. NED RAB PRT Jos van Emden 4 255 delete
16. NED RAB PRT Stef Clement 2 50 delete
17. ESP RAB PRT Juan Manuel Garate Cepa 2 35 delete
18. NED RAB PRT Steven Kruijswijk 2 80 delete
19. NED RAB PRT Tom Leezer 2 100 delete
20. AUS RAB PRT Michael Matthews 2 50 delete
21. NED VCD PRT Wout Poels 2 85 delete
22. FRA EUS PRT Romain Sicard 2 25 delete
23. NED RAB PRT Bram Tankink 2 50 delete
24. NED RAB PRT Maarten Tjallingii 2 60 delete
25. NED RAB PRT Pieter Weening 2 100 delete
Okay--I'll just cut and paste it into my team.
Thanks!
It's really cool--Heinrich Haussler, on Barbie Barbie
Ah. You're welcome
We’re going to have a much a like team. I have thrown out some rabo and still have 18 Rabo’s. Forget what I have said in this tread. Rabo is going to rock!
I'm not. I think the odds of him riding like he did in 2009 are slim.
Much of last season was saved by his performance at the TdF which gave him 210 of his 220 points for the year. Maybe he can turn the corner and get back to being his 2009 self. But I’m not sure?
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
zomg
I’m such a VDS rookie. Thought I’d settled about 5 times, but riders I fired keep popping up in the early races. I know the early form doesn’t matter that much, but it does tell you they aren’t injured and reminds you that they exist and forces you to spend another half hour on CQ…. this is impossible. Next year I must remember that I won’t be able to do any work before the end of Feb. I already knew I couldn’t do any work in most of March, April, all of May and July, late August and early September. Oh, and possibly some of June.
It's not a rookie thing.
I’m still hiring and firing, and revising, building new teams from scratch to compare against each other. I’m actually enjoying this more than picking a team just based on who I know or want to root for like I’ve done in the past. I’m learning about a lot more riders and races. With so many choices though, I should be able to avoid putting anyone on my team I don’t want to root for.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
imagine if you could transfer riders in and out during the year?
I think there would be a measurable drop in global GDP.
A few more
Andy Schleck 24 points (would need to return 1920 points)
Can we call Andy the one trick pony at this point? Just like 2010, 2011 will be focused on the TdF. He road part of the Vuelta last year but wasn’t that serious about it as shown by him being sent home by Riis.
Not sure if I am stepping out of line, but A Schleck at 24 points is almost highway robbery. :) He scored 1467 in 2009 and 1364 in 2010. He will score a few points in the Ardennes classics. But (and that is a very large but) he relies 70% of his points scored on the TdF. Let’s say that he wins the TdF this year and gets an 150-200 points compared to last year, that still puts him in ~1500 point range. He will struggle to break the 65-70 point ratio. Just not very likely. You can almost forget about him getting to the 1920 goal. Actually you can forget about that. He just doesn’t race enough races to make it a worthwhile buy. My estimate for 2011: 1450-1550. I say look elsewhere for better value.
Frank Schleck- 16 points (would need to return 1280 points)
Big brother Schleck actually represents a much stronger buy than his younger brother. Sure his brother places well in the TdF, but that is about it. We don’t know how Frank would have placed in the TdF last year if he didn’t crash out. I guess you could argue his 2010 season was saved by his top 5 in the Vuelta. So some of his strength will depend on if he races two GTs or not.
Frank also does well in the classics (especially the Ardennes) and should net somewhere around ~200-300 if he rides all 3 of them.
He should also be a shoe in for either the Luxembourg TT/RR champion depending on how him and Andy want to split it, so say another 100 points there.
Also he wants to win Tour de Suisse again. Should suit him well as there is a lot of climbing this year. ~300 points
He will also probably ride Tour de Luxembourg again which is he placed in the top 3 the past 3 years (2nd, 1st, 3rd)
The biggest question is how will he do in the TdF? He placed in the top 5 2 times in a row (2008 and 2009) before crashing out last year. Can he hang on to Andy’s coat tail and help drag him over the mountains? To get to his point value, I think he really needs to score top 5 in TdF again or ride the Vuelta again. For the Tour this year there are a lot of hungry riders; Evans, Gesink, Van Den Broeck, Sammy Sanchez, and the big elephant in the room again, Contador. So say AC rides that probably takes care of the top two spots with AC/AS going 1-2. Then you have at least 4 other strong riders battling with Frank for the remaining 3 spots. He could do it, but it won’t be easy.
There is also the question whether he will take the season easier to save himself to help Andy in the Tour. He did score 1224 last year which is very respectable. The question is whether he will score more points this year since he crashed in the TdF or if he will regress since his 2010 total was saved by riding the Vuelta which we aren’t sure he will ride this year?
My personal feeling is that Frank is a stronger buy than his brother. However Frank also has his own risks based upon the return that he can bring. If I had to buy someone in the 16 point range, I would probably skip Frank and go with someone else. What do you guys think?
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
I tend to think they will both go to the Vuelta
That should make F. Schleck a decent buy especially since their are no cobbles he has to contend with this year.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
It's been said before, but I find the brotherly love thing really annoying with these two.
I can’t pick Andy, because I think even if he blows away Contador to win the TdF and is feeling on top of the world, he’ll be more interested in helping his brother win the Vuelta than in winning it himself.
Need more killer instinct, Andy.
I've always said the opposite...
love (brotherly or any other kind) greater than that killer instinct stuff.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
A. Schleck.
1 thing is sure. He’s not going to surprise you, but he’s also not going to dissapoint you.. But if he wins LBL..+ Tour.. he could overperform..
Interesting VDS battle in Algarve going down
between Machado and Van Gardener, two possible gooduns at the 6-point level.
"Gold medal, silver medal, bronze medal; for me, potato." - Emil Zatopek
Previously excluded them
now I’m considering them again. I expected a little more from Tejay last year so I’m still in unforgiving mode with him. And JB seems too loyal to his old guard to let Machado have a good shot at bigger races. Bottom line, soooo many more 6 pointers to choose from.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
fyi, machado is scheduled to be the shack leader at the giro
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
Tejay has the popularity premium unfortunately
He’s an emotional pick, one of the guys that maybe Chris bumped up so that he isn’t on every single team? Objectively more a 4-pointer at his age and experience, I think.
he is on over 90 teams. Not quite every team, but getting close. ;)
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
I picked Machado over Tejay
They’re both going to get their points in the shorter stage races. But Machado won’t be on leadout duty half the time.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Nope, I just went with a normal team this year. Though I didn't go over a 20 pointer
by Vlaanderen90 on Feb 18, 2011 8:40 PM EST up reply actions
What about Chris Horner?
Highest-scoring bald guy of 2010, I believe.
What else can I say? I'm really happy. --Vincenzo Nibali
I'm hoping, I might have went with too many guys I like to be a contender...and Contador coming back,
He might ruin one of my “sleeper” picks.
by Vlaanderen90 on Feb 18, 2011 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
sleeper for Giro or TdF?
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
Neither really...just some lower G.C. points and stage results. But if Conta is doing the Giro, he could be turned into a domestique
I sense him, my guy, having a good year though in the short stage races, at least I am hoping
by Vlaanderen90 on Feb 18, 2011 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
actually I think me might be considering the same rider.
is he in the 4-10 point range?
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
Conta coming back totally trashed my 'strategy', such as it was.
So i’m back to lots of midpointers & aiming only to do better than I did last year.
"There is nobody doing it for the money. Everybody is doing it because they want to ride bikes." Lizzie Armitstead
Ok guys, critique a rookie's team please.
J-Rod, Scarponi, Anton
My established GC guys, who I need to match last year or do a little better. I picked climby guys who will ride Giro + Vuelta, and can ride long seasons scoring a bunch of points in other races too. Between them, their total 2010 GT results were 4th,4th,8th. With two super-climby GTs, they can do much better than this in 2011 even if Contador/Nibali dominate. I have a feeling Scarponi may ride Vuelta, he did it a couple of times in his younger days; he’ll certainly be at a lot more big races this year.
Gesink, Haussler, Brajkovic, Sagan
My up-and-coming stars, all the real deal I think. Less sure of Brajkovic, but a chance to shine coming out of LA’s shadow now. Need Gesink to stay upright then could get close to 2000, others have the talent for 1000-point range.
Leukemans
A controversial choice, no form before 2010, strong circumstantial doper. However, I think he’s figured out how to ride the classics to perfection for a guy who’s just a notch below the stars. My view is that the cobble podiums will be dominated by the expensive stars Cance/Boonen/Gilbert/Hushovd/Farrar – so without paying up for those guys, the best way for me to score some points in the spring is with a guy who’s shown he can get top 10s in every race.
No 8 or 6 pointers.
4-pointers:
Chava (obvious)
Ruben Plaza (odd disrupted career; 12th & 15th in GTs last year)
Hoogie, Intxausti, Taaramae – younger guys with uncertain potential
(then 6 × 2-pointers and 6 × 1-pointers)
He is just so young. I was worried that they over-race him, there were signs of that last year. Those strange tweets, I don’t believe that was a fake account, just an kid feeling a bit frustrated. Thinking about the fact that Benna has left LIQ and the races that team can line up for him is what swung it for me.
I think if I were to engage in malicious twitter identity theft, I might be inclined to do something a little more interesting. My read was that he was over-raced, exhausted, a bit sick. The tweets I put down to a little bit of immaturity, no problem, sounds like they resolved it perfectly well within the team and put out a bs cover story to save is face.
My thought is that with Bennati gone, he can actually win a lot of races this year without getting too exhausted, because in addition to his main stuff, the team will put him in some less bumpy races where they would have tried for Benna last year, i.e. heavily protected the whole race by a very strong team and just go for it in the finale.
Over-raced?
He only raced 7,000 km last season. And they didn’t put him in a grand tour. I picked a bunch of neo-pros out of my head and looked up their season totals – Sagan was the lowest.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Amazing, I guess it’s just the fact that he won almost everything that made it seem like he had raced a lot. I’m even happier to have him then.
Where do you look up that info?
Look up the rider on CQranking and click stats
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
They did over-race him in the first half of the year...he was dead by the time he got to Suisse
They weren’t going to allow him to start a GT because of how young he was/is.
by Vlaanderen90 on Feb 18, 2011 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
We are pretty different (so you should do really well)
One of my teams has a slew of 8 and 6 pointers, but now I’m shying away from that and thinking of going with a model more like Frinking posted at the top. We share a couple of guys in the 10-12 point range but non of the top and bottom. Your thinking looks good to me, especially your top guys. I’m staying clear of anything US Postal related and trying to boycott Spain because of the RFEC.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Looks excellent to em
(although last year was the first time I played)
Similar picks to me. I think you’ve chosen your expensive guys well. Rarional reasons for all of them to exceed last year’s scores.
Careful with your 1 and 2 pointers, they’re important. I’ll bet your knowledge is good enough to make shrewd aquisitions at those prices.
Looks a lot like my team.
So obviously I like it. The only two guys that you’ve got that I never seriously considered are Chavanel (classy but how much does he really produce?) and Taaramae (was great last year until the Tour of Turkey and then pffft… he seems to tire easily.)
What else can I say? I'm really happy. --Vincenzo Nibali
Thanks. Chava, Hoogie, Taaramae all had poor 2010s, would be at least twice the price if they’d built on expectations from 2009. I wouldn’t pick too many guys who disappoint like that, but I figure not every career is a straight line, and you need some high variance picks to have a chance to score big. With Chava I think it’s a question of whether a few key breaks in big races can stick, big element of luck in that. He’s still only 31, so no reasons his abilities should be fading, certainly not for spring classics.
Good logic. We'll see.
I was a little tempted by Taaramae, cause he really did look great in 2009 and the first part of 2010. But the meltdowns later in the season were so disappointing, I wasn’t willing to chance it again.
What else can I say? I'm really happy. --Vincenzo Nibali
I think my theory is ok, but I still need to pick the right guys! Frankly I don’t know much about Taaramae, and your comments have got me reconsidering. I had Gerrans until the last moment on similar reasoning (inconsistent, high variance), but just felt I had too many riders for the hilly classics. When they can’t all fit on the podium, I figure you are overstaffed.
However I would give Rein the benefit of the doubt. He is only 23 years old and will turn 24 in a few months.
If he rides his national championships again in 2011 like he did in 2009, there are a potential 200 points right there.
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
yeah I noticed the nationals too, that was the main reason his VDS point haul dropped! but of course, that a quirk of the VDS system, his 2010 really was poor.
It would help if we have some clue if he will ride the nationals – looks like pretty much all he has to do is drop Kirsipuu before the end of the RR, and that’s 200 points.
it would be
100 for national RR
100 for national TT
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
maybe if we email him and point out the massive significance of his national championships, appeal to his patriotism
http://palun.blogspot.com/2007/01/estonia-never-had-its-own-heroes.html
Ha! Good thinking. I still have him on my team as of now.
Just not sure if there is another 4 pointers that I would rather have.
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
Two guys I reluctantly fired,
Cunego
Uber-classy, even with GT disappointment he has scored massive points every year since 2003 until the wheels fell off (by his standards) last year. At first glance seems really underpriced… but I just can’t see a coherent plan there. A vague idea to peak for an Ardennes win, then maybe ride a GT with some ill-defined objective? The hilly classics are ultra competitive now – Gilbert, Schlecks, Kolobnev, Vino, Evans, J-Rod, Anton, Scarponi, Gesink, Hesjedal and fifteen more. If the Ardennes disappoint, is his plan to deliberately lose 10 minutes in the TdF and go stage hunting? Seems like the team are happy to focus their efforts on Scarponi for now. He needs a wise DS to guide him, should have switched teams for 2011.
Feillu (the sprinty one)
Decided that his destiny is to get 50 × 10th places this year and score nil points. VAC will race him in at least 2 GTs, because what else do they have to get noticed now? He will be out of the top places in straight flat sprint stages. In the few smaller races he fits in with VAC’s protour schedule, there are so many classy young quick guys coming through (Sagan, Bos, Matthews, Degenkolb, Viviani) that he won’t get any easy wins like the Algarve. Would score a much bigger haul with a French ProConti team riding all those shit small races that Greipel used to enjoy so much.
and I have to say I really WANT to pick Cunego, because it seems so much like he’s riding clean (now anyway), and perhaps that’s why his GT results have underwhelmed. So if the peloton really is getting somewhat cleaner, you’d like to think that Cunego would do progressively better. Who knows, judging whether somebody’s clean by what they say and whether they seem like a nice fellow doesn’t really seem to work, does it?
The hardest for me are the 12 pointers.
Trying to decide which ones to go with as I think there are quite a few great buys in this range. Haussler- was 2009 his true form or will he end up with another 2010? Obviously 2010 was full of bad luck and crashes, so it is safer to assume he will be closer to 2009.
Matti Breschel- will he ride the classics? How is the knee? Is he in shape? A lot of questions. He scored 855 points last year on a average/medicore season. However the knee. Big question on that. He is a contender for Worlds, especially being raced in his home country. Should give him a boost.
Igor Anton- I think this guy is the real deal. Will probably be on a lot of teams. If he didn’t crash out of the Vuelta, he had a great chance of winning. Should improve in 2011.
Denny Menchov- will he ride two GTs? If so he might be a great buy, but if he only rides the Vuelta then I’m not sure.
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
I considered Mick Rogers pretty carefully also
He’s not a rider that ever really excited me, but he really seems to have found what he’s good at, and I think the move to Sky means that he’ll have fewer sprint train responsibilities. Sky are saying forget about the TdF obsession, we need wins – I think they will let Rogers go for it in pretty much all the big 1-week races that he wants. He probably has to ride one big Tour also, but he did that last year and it didn’t hurt his form in his own races. He might even get a GT top 10 again with the pressure right off. Only reason I left him out in the end is because I have a bunch of GT guys and Sagan who will be in direct competition in most of the big 1-weekers.
I passed on Rogers this year. Don't think he will win ToC for sure this year. I think Tejay will put a bit of pressure
on him and could upset. At least to me, Rogers doesn’t jump out to me as a guy I want on my team. But for another team he might be a great fit.
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
If I'd gone for a one-week stage race guy, it would have been Rogers.
But I didn’t.
What else can I say? I'm really happy. --Vincenzo Nibali
Breschel may be out
And I just submitted my team with him on it. Oh well.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
maybe he is sandbagging
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
I wish
poor guy must be feeling terrible
they told be before the op that there was a chance he might never ride again
then told him the op went perfectly
now this…
I just don't get how he can podium at Worlds while at the same time needing knee surgery that may end his career
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
yeah it looks like he might be over before the season ever started?
Poor guy. Really liked him and his personality. Hope he gets well soon.
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
I can deal with an injured rider
If I lost an expensive rider to doping the game would be no fun.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
I’m new to this, but it doesn’t seem at all unreasonable to email Chris to get your team unlocked? If you can do it for a scumbag 16 point doper, why not for an injured 12-pointer? There was known risk with Breschel’s injury, but you can say the same with bells on about the known risk of Ricco going down in flames.
Yeah I agree.
I don’t think Chris will have any issues at all if you ask nicely.
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
Nah, I don't mind. I knew he had knee problems and picked him anyways
I still have hope.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
People knew that Ricco had a doping/drug problem and picked him anyways.
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
I picked Ricco :)
I knew Ricco had a doping problem. I didn’t know it was ongoing.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Aren't we suppose to mock you for that? jk jk ;)
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
Poor Rabobank and their knees.
Paul Martens and now Matti Breschel. At least that should leave more opportunities for Boom and Langeveld, right?
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
Right now I am at
1- 18 pointer
1- 16 pointer
2- 12 pointers
3- 10 pointers
3- 8 pointers
1- 6 pointer
4- 4 pointers
5- 2 pointers
5- 1 pointers
I am fairly happy with it so far, but I have been known to change my mind and fire riders at the whim!
"We saw death and I don't think we fear it anymore. Not unlike 2005, when we finally clinched and then we took off in the playoffs." Coop 7/29/10
Roche
I’ve dumped some risky 4-pointers and gone for Nick Roche.
I had dismissed him as second rate because he’s a grinder, rarely wins, seems pretty good at everything without excelling at anything.
However, when you look carefully at the progression of his results….
GTs = 122nd; 13th; 22nd; 15th+7th. Has never DNF-ed.
Ardennes last year reached 33rd / 29th / 21st, just out of the points.
Riding TdF and Vuelta again, and wants to attack the Ardennes.
Seems to me he can grind out 1000 VDS points in 2011 without ever being on a podium.
Added bonus – always rides Irish Nats – 4th;4th;1st;2nd.
Worries
- knee injury late Jan, missed Etoile, his Twitter says it minor, hasn’t mentioned it in Algarve
- how much time can AG2R manage to lose over 23km and 16km TTT?
Some entertaining 1- and 2-pointers
There are several obvious talented youngsters (including two notable 1-pt sprinters) to take first, the homework is easy on them. Here are some off-the-beaten track punts that may be entertaining if you have a few roster spots open. Could all score zero, could all score big.
Baden Cooke (2)
What a trainwreck of a career, where did it all go wrong?
Last year domestique at the bottom of the pile.
With all the stars gone, Riis only has Cooke and Nuyens to work with in the Spring.
Can Riis work his magic and resurrect another career?
Still only 32, and I’m told his contract is up this year, give it all you’ve got, Baden.
Kashechkin (2)
Doped with ex-buddy Vino, struggled to get a ride until Lampre picked him up last July.
Immediately hit 17th in the Vuelta.
We know nobody is stupid enough to dope again after getting caught, right?
Any major opportunity will depend on domestique duties, but Lampre will be lacking a major GT contender in at least one of the 3 GTs, so he may get some freedom.
Peraud (2)
I love what this guy has done.
Ex-MTB, wins French TT out of the blue in 2009,
First year of road is 2010, aged 32, straight in at ProTour level with Lotto
…Paris-Nice 8th, PaisVasco 4th, Poland 12th, finishes his first GT (Vuelta) 38th.
Wasting no time in 2011, second up Mont Faron.
I guess if you’ve ridden up mountains on mud trails all your life, this road stuff is easy.
Who knows what his level is?
Rujano (2)
Well, I think we’ve established that the problem is his head, not his legs.
I’m leaning towards frontal lobotomy, then point him up the hill.
We’re only looking for a 48kg solution, it’s not rocket science people.
David Blanco (1)
A wild punt.
He has won more national tours on the Iberian Peninsula than anyone riding!
An unknown at Protour level, and will need to, erm, adjust his medication no doubt.
Gianetti has muttered about him being an alternative GT threat, which is a stretch at age 36.
Lots of climbiness this year, a GT stage or top fifteen?
Maybe something in a 1-week Spanish stage race?
Maybe absolutely nothing?
Let the buyer beware.
Seeldrayers (1)
Real rising star in 2009, California 11th, Paris-Nice 7th, Giro 13th.
Totally lost his way last year, Lefevre publicly gave him shit about not sorting himself out. This management style would be okay for an older rider who’d lost his way, but i think a bit inappropriate for a youngster. There were diet problems that maybe he’s sorted out. A lot of upside or a lot of nothing.
Finally -
some “obvious” picks that I think will do nothing are
Gadret (2) – because he’s crap
Egoi Martinez (1) because he will be too busy helping Anton and Sammy to chase KOM
dump them for some of my gems above….
why Gadret is crap
I guess it would be more eloquent to say —
Apparently he’s leader for the Giro. Ok, it’s climby, but he was never really very good and he’s getting older. There will be so many talented climbers there that I don’t think he’s good enough to get into the top 5 (point-scoring) positions on an uphill stage, unless from a break. He might just make 15th-20th on GC, but I doubt it. What kind of horrible TTT team will AG2R send to the Giro when they have to get Roche through TTTs in both other GTs?
And I can’t see any evidence that anything will happen for him in any other race of the year either, unless it’s some very minor French affair; and he won’t have too much time for the small races because he will be loyally supporting his protege and lifelong friend Nicholas Roche in the TdF.
He was good for 1 point last year.
At the Giro he was 3rd in the mountain TT, repeated this year: there’s your stage where he can get in the top 5. He had 3 top 5s last year. If he was at the same level this year, there wouldn’t be many more than 5 better climbers there (Nibali, Anton, Rodriguez, Menchov, Scarponi, …?) so he could easily be scoring. He managed the top 20 at the Tour, so he can perform more than once a year. He’s a more convincing leader than a lot of teams will be sending to the Giro, and if you have sole leadership you have a good chance of scoring something. Only question for me is would he actually be worth the extra point this time.
So
why was Visconti priced that high, anyway? It’s not as if he’s super popular, and he didn’t score very high (in VDS) last year. It hardly seems possible for him to give a good return at 12 points.
He didn't get a Giro invite last year.
But he might well this?
"There is nobody doing it for the money. Everybody is doing it because they want to ride bikes." Lizzie Armitstead
I don't really see him as someone for the GC
More likely stage wins or even the points jersey, but 500+ points to bring him into line with the ‘solid’ 12 pointers? Tall order. tHe’s still on a Pro Conti team for the rest of the year at the end of the day.
I know
He was on my pre-season buy list, but I thought he’d cost 8. I kept hiring and firing him.
Farnese does
- Have a Giro invite
- Have Ardennes invites
And
- VDS includes more races Visconti has done well in
Still a tall order, I went with Kreuz. Only costs 2 more.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
I was tempted myself.
I’d like to have him on the team to cheer for, but there were too many good riders at 12 points. Remains to be seen whether I actually chose the right ones, though :{
Seems like he is ready to come into his own this year...
He will be a force in Tirreno and in the fall as well. Plus with there being more small stage races on the calendar this year, he can be a threat to get stage wins and overall points.
I’d say he is almost guaranteed a stage win in the Giro along with some placings.
by Vlaanderen90 on Feb 20, 2011 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
Definitely
But 700-1000 VDS points worth?
Also, I was wrong about the invites above. I thought they were invited already but a CN story said they were still waiting.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Shit!
I’ve just realised that I’ve selected a team that is almost Euskaltel-light on the cobbles. How shameful to do such a thing on this site.
It’s hard to find good representation on the cobbles below the 20 pointers.
Podiums likely to be Cance, Boonen, Gilbert, Hushovd, Farrar.
I left Boss Hog out because Sky seem to have deliberately given him a very light race program,
don’t really understand, I think they tend to overthink and micromanage people.
There’s Flecha, Leukemans, Devolder, Van Avermaet? Nobody really stands out there.
I went with Leukemans as the best chance to pick up a lot of top 10’s,
and hope that the big boys split the top honors around a bit.
Suspect he’s doping it up tho, bit of a worry.
I also have Chava and Hoogie, both had below-par 2010s hence bargain basement prices for their talent.
Oh, and youngster Kris Boeckmans is a 2-pointer on a huge number of teams.
I think he might be injured, though.
At some point I decided to swap Barbie for Freire.
I irrationally decided I would go down a less popular route (although 3xWorlds winner Freire’s hardly obscure), but my other reasons were:
Haussler’s only had one really good year, whereas Freire’s very regular.
I wouldn’t expect much more than his 2009 season at best. Would that be worth more than 12 points?
He’s on a busy team where he overlaps with a couple of big riders.
He’s likely to have been priced up because of his popularity.
BUT, Freire isn’t really a cobbles guy. Other than him, above 2 points I have Sagan (untested), Paolini, and a few lightweight sprinters. No true specialists. The only riders other than Haussler that I almost put on the team were Boasson Hagen and Leukemans, but other riders of other types were more attractive.
I wouldn’t characterize Freire as steady producer – doesn’t win often, but wins very big when he does – I wouldn’t think of him as a low-risk steady producer. I dismissed him because I’m worried his age may catch up with him this year.
I think Haussler is a really exciting talent, when I saw he was looking fit in January there was no question for me. Can learn a little a bit more racecraft, will soon be winning a lot of different types of race in a lot of different ways.
I looked at Freire's CQ.
Loking at it again, it’s not as flat as I expected, but there’s only 2009 where he really dipped, then 2010 was good again. Apart from ‘09, I’d take any of the last 5 seasons.
Garvelo’s packed roster is an issue, I agree – Haussler’s my only Gar-man except the obligatory 1-pointer. In Haussler’s case, I think it’s neutral. He’ll be at worst joint leader in MSR; in Flanders and Roubaix, the cream tend to rise to the top anyway – and with Cance/Boonen’s strength (plus Gilbert in Flanders), the potential for attack/counter-attack if Garvelo get two or three guys in the finale is worth something. He’ll probably miss out on some pure sprint finishes where Farrar will be the guy, but with the big roster and budget they will enter a lot more races than smaller teams, so I’m guessing Barbie will pick up a few sprint wins in SSRs to pad the score. He benefits from freedom in GTs because they have no GC threat to protect – I think he’s skipping TdF for Vuelta and WCRR prep.
I really like Haussler, and I'll be rooting for him anyway.
I wouldn’t expect much from him in GTs, though, as they’ll be all in for Farrar on many stages of at least 2 GTs, and they may well have GC aspirations from Hesjedal, VDV, Danielson, Le Mevel, Martin.
I've reorganised my team..
1×26, 1×18, 1×12, 2×10, 1×8, 6×6, 4×4, 4×2, 6×1. But one rider to many..
Altho I think.. It’s the strategy I unfolded in the thread.. So this has to be the winning one..
See
Tyler Farrar: So worth the points? He certainly is. But just for the save points. Not for a big upset in points.
Vincenco Nibali: I say don’t buy him..
+1
Rough calculation tells me winning score probably a little higher than last year, aim for potential ~13,500 = 90 per point on average. Farrar probably solid for most of 2000 points but hard to see much more with v competitive sprint field. If you have some other high risk/high return guys on your team then he’s a good choice.
Nibs got vast majority of points in GT hauls last year, not much padding from other races, can he repeat 1st & 3rd with 2 very hilly courses? How sure are you that Contador gets deep-sixed in time?
I don't know about Contador..
But I never ever going to put him in my team. I have to like my riders or at least not dislike them.. So no Conta, Cance, Boonen or Evans ever in my VDSteam..
Hivert won stage 2 of Ruta del Sol
But pay no attention to him. He’s a one hit wonder this year. Top 10 on the stage and current GC here.
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
I HATE Hivert...He fooled me last year after he won the GP Marseille then did absolutely nothing until September
by Vlaanderen90 on Feb 21, 2011 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
some of the commentary...
Some of the auto-translate has an ethereal poetic quality, I love how this turned out:
Platoon once again lost units.
The Colombian government has offered an exhibition and after reaching and leaving behind Ramirez has maintained a pulse with the squad.
he's on your team, right?
"There is nobody doing it for the money. Everybody is doing it because they want to ride bikes." Lizzie Armitstead
We can't confirm
We’re not rejecting the possibilty of hiring him for the season, but there are a lot of riders out there to consider.
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Feb 21, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
Ah. He is.
"There is nobody doing it for the money. Everybody is doing it because they want to ride bikes." Lizzie Armitstead
At the moment, yes :)
But it’s a first draft, the Bicycle Furies haven’t come out to play yet.
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Feb 21, 2011 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
Brajkovic
Do we believe in this guy?
His GT record is patchy.
If he had top-15ed in the TdF last year I would be totally comfortable with his progress.
I have the impression he was held back by towing Lance around, but I wasn’t really focused on him at the time. Are my memories accurate?
Be it Brajkovic, Kloeden, Horner or Leipheimer
Someone (or a few) will benefit from Lance’s retirement. Brajkovic is young, and he just won the Dauphineé. Seems a reasonable candidate.
But that's not really answering teh question.
I know little of him, but if he can win the Dauphineé, he can certainly do something at the Tour. Whether he’s worth ten points if he rides quite a light schedule is another question. JVDB is eight, FFS.
Tony Martin (16) or Roman Kreuziger (14)?
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Wrong GT course for Kreuziger to get first leadership. I see him as a Menchov-type of rider.
They’ve put a lot of expectation on young shoulders ’I’m riding it to win" and it will take a lot of calmness and intelligence to ride your own controlled tempo and not panic when J-Rod, Anton, Scarponi are jumping up the road on the steepest slopes. Only one flat TT to recover time.
Tony Martin talented, but I’m not sure where the point haul comes from to justify that price.
Kreuziger is riding the Vuelta too. And I don’t think there’s a “wrong GT course”. Lots of climbs and few TT miles are now “the GT course”.
Martin only 300 more points to be a great buy. More category 3 races helps. And he is riding the Tour for GC (or so he claims) this year.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Is K doing Vuelta for sure? That makes a huge difference, I agree.
I think he’s talented, I just only saw him around 4th-5th at the Giro, so wasn’t sure where more points would come from. Last stories I saw were pretty uncertain beyond Giro=K and Tour-Vino. I was worried about the politics in the team with Vino gunning for some twilight glory.
Velonews had this, but very old. It would be an crazy to have him wasted on supporting Vino at the TdF, but that might be the “deal”, given that this is still Team Vino.
According to WielerFlits, Kreuziger will decide after the Giro whether he will race the Tour de France in support of Alexandre Vinokourov or if he will take a break and go all in for a second Grand Tour in 2011, the Vuelta.
Do you have something more recent?
http://romankreuziger.com/en/roman/calendar-roman-kreuziger.htm
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Hm,
Kreuziger is co-leader of Astana, and the team is about the GC. He’ll have improved opportunities from last year. He has the Giro apart from anything else. Last year was considered unimpressive by some, but only if you judge him by the very highest standards. This Giro is particularly vertical, though.
Tony Martin just won a stage race (not like Eneco). He’s the second best time triallist in the world, and gaining on Cancellara, so he has a guaranteed score from his specialisation. His progress has been steady. He’s unllikely to be someone for the GTs this year though, if ever.
Much as I’d like to have a stake in Martin’s rise, Kreuz is cheaper and has potential to do more this year.
What gives me pause about Kreuziger
Is his team, Astana. I thought it was no coincidence that Contador slipped a but last year and it was his first year Bruyneel-less. So I am not sold that Kreuziger will have a great season.
Kreuziger is young, but he's been a pro for several years
So I am not overly worried about his development. His teammates won’t be as good, but at least he will be the sole focus (hopefully).
And besides, I think a weak team matters a lot if you are aiming for the podium in a Grand Tour. But I’m not expecting more than 4th to 6th place out of him. He can still be a good buy with 5th in the Giro and Vuelta as long as he picks up stage races/Ardennes results along the way.
Now, I would be worried about a rider like Kiserlovski’s development though (even though he’s the same age as Kreuziger)
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
What worries me about Kreuziger
Is I really think he needs the Giro and Vuelta to prove his VDS worth. However, I see Astana putting him in the Tour to help Vino, where he’ll flame out, and then won’t do the Vuelta.
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
by PopUp Rolen on Feb 21, 2011 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
He was odd man out with liquigas last year and seemed unmotivated and I don't blame him.
I think he’ll ride Spain and Italy and I think he will podium in one of them. And more than that, he will have a good Spring. Buy him at 14. You can’t go wrong.
by sebastiandeluded on Feb 21, 2011 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
I've gone with both Roche and VDB in the end for 8+8
both are unspectacular grinders, but both
- have made steady gains year after year in GTs and approaching perfect age
- are undisputed GC leaders for their teams with well thought out race schedules
- will race TdF and Vuelta in 2011
- are a slight improvement away from scoring in Ardennes and other hilly classics
With a continued steady progression these two yield 1500 comfortably in 2011.
Here's another way to spend 16 points
Chava+Hoogie+Gerrans+Taaramae
2009 – return 2828 points
2010 cost 52 – return 675 points
2011 cost 16
The price seems too heavily discounted based on one sub-par year for 4 classy riders.
For most of my “core” 10pt+ guys I prefer steady or steadily rising performance that’s easier to estimate, but I think high risk/ high return is a reasonable strategy at the 4-pt level.
Taarame to me seems really eratic
Moncoutie, on the other hand gives a consistent 400 to 500 points.
Sminer: I blame KARMA for everything.
Jens: I've heard it's a bitch
Water Girl: I heard it ran over your dogma
Taaramae gets another season with me.
I paid 10 points for him last year and he did nothing. I’ll be damned if I let him go for 4. He’s still young and he is talented.
by sebastiandeluded on Feb 21, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
Martin over Kreuz 100%
My team is submitted! Yes! Thanks game!
Kreuz has plateaued as a GC rider – his results are not enough last year for VDS 14 vs. others. His main calling cards are youth, and moving to a team with lax morals. He likely will eventually improve much as a rider over time, but not up to 1,200+ in VDS this year. (Getting with Vino might change all that, of course.)
Tony Martin is a large size rider who has shown no interest in the Northern Classics. Otherwise, it’s all good. Same like with EBH, he has to ride like Merckx and Ullrich to make his gig fly – otherwise the smaller riders will always own him. Still, he looks very strong, even as he continues to pretend Roubaix is not in his future.
by rubesANdbabes on Feb 22, 2011 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Celebrate the Giro d'Italia at Podium Cafe!
Check our Giro Section for race updates, on-the-scene reports, and other hijinx.
Featured Stories
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
