The Subtlety of Tactics: Paris-Roubaix Tidbit
by Jen See on Apr 12, 2011 7:48 PM EDT
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PrintWhen we talked to Jonathan Vaughters last December (Gah, was it really that long ago?), he told us he hoped to use the team's numbers to swamp the massive power of Fabian Cancellara. At the Ronde van Vlaanderen, the race did not really go the way of Garmin-Cervélo. Paris-Roubaix, the é team had their day. If you haven't read Lionel Birnie on this race, go do it. Has he always written these race analysis stories? I'm not sure, but I read every one of them. Dude's a master. But that isn't what I came here to say.
This morning, Jonathan Vaughters commented that he liked Birnie's analysis except for one thing. The British writer had missed the moment when Vaughters pulled Garmin-Cervélo rider Rasch back from the break to help with the chase. What? Help with the chase? Why was Garmin-Cervélo helping with the chase with Van Summeren in the break? Vaughters explains:
Easy: We wanted the gap to be tight (40secs) so the others in the break were forced to work hard. And... so that Fabs [would] think he could get across towing Thor. A big gap (2mins) the break starts to look at each other, and [Fabian Cancellara] gives up.
Yes, sometimes, it actually does make sense to contribute to the chase, even with a rider up the road. Vaughters wanted to tempt Cancellara into trying to bridge, a move that suits the big Swiss rider's talent, but would also likely allow Garmin-Cervélo to send a passenger up the road with him. At the same time, contributing to the chase also helped Van Summeren in the break: His breakaway companions would not be tempted to slack off, if they believed the field still lurked close behind. Crafty.
I think it was the sideburns.
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Dangling a Euskaltel rider in front of Cancellara
That is evil.
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Apr 13, 2011 3:58 AM EDT up reply actions
singular
Rabo straight up chased their own dude.
And how is this not "chasing their own dude"?
But, yeah, you only get to call it brilliant if it works. Otherwise, stupid / foolhardy.
"luckily for me i was born with an extremely high hemassholecrit level. no pills needed." -ant1
because Garmin didnt have their whole team at the front.
anyway…..tedvdw,
sorry for the lazy insight and resulting comments. I’ll think and explain my thoughts next time.
Their own dude who was riding to the finish with Haussler.
You know, a guy who can win bunch sprints.
by blackswangreen on Apr 13, 2011 7:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep, it did.
I think it’s a hard tactic to play right, and probably only works in pretty specific circumstances. It makes sense, for example, in a race that was mostly against Cancellara and his particular style of racing. Not sure it makes sense in a more open race.
Of course, every tactic looks brilliant when it leads to a win :)
The Sideburns is a psychologist?
I think he knows his riders(except maybe Trent Lowe) and their abilities well.
Speaking of tactics
Androni whatsitsname had 4 of the 7 riders in the deciding group in the Giro Appennino…they managed to not win
It's Timofey MOZGOD time
Ujiri for MVE
Karl for COY
GALLO!!!
It was a bigtime gamble, they were lucky it paid off.
Except that they certainly knew JVS was in good form and ready to go. Good thing that slow leak didn’t blow, man would that have been crazy.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Yeah, thought the "OH lalalalala Balen we got a problem!" was something last year...
if that tire shredded, I think Michel Wuyts would of had a heartattack.
by Vlaanderen90 on Apr 12, 2011 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
We all would have had a heart attack with him.
It would have made Menchov’s crash in his time trial seem much smaller.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Yah
numbers is only step one. Step two is having the right guys in the right situation. Not to sound like a broken record but Garmin had repeatedly flooded the field at other races, but not so much with the right guy (save for GW). This time they had a P-R threat up the road with the Carrefour to come.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Apr 12, 2011 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
and if that worked...
Cance goes across with Thor on his wheel and then drops Thor as he did in real life….
D I R K H O F F M A N M O T O R H O M E S
Here's the thing
Given the strength of Cancellara, no tactic was 100% certain to win. So Vaughters was doing what a good DS should – gently increasing the odds of a win. I think what he did was good tactics, and would have thought so even if he hadnt won.
He had a strong guy at the front – if the break stays away, there is a minimum 1 in 4 chance of victory, and probably more than that as JVS is a seriously classy rider in his own right
He had Thor with Cance. It’s possible that Cance can drop Thor – but if he was able to, he would no matter what tactics Garmin played. Thor was never going to outdrag Fabian. So the play there was to keep Thor with Fabian as along as possible, and hope that Thor could hang all the way to the velodrome – at which point he is odds on winner.
There are so many variables, JV could easily have ended up with nothing: but he gave himself the best chance for ONE of his coins to turn up heads.
Similarly, in RVV, he was indeed “playing the cards he was dealt”. If he had Thor and Tylar work on the front, there was zero chance they would win – they would be cooked, even if the break came back. By sitting in, he was maximising the liklihood they would win (ie a small chance the break comes back, times by a larger chance that they could win).
At the end of the day, the result is not the sole arbiter of whether a tactic was good.
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
"there is a minimum 1 in 4 chance of victory"
He pulled Rasch back before that final selection of four riders, didn’t he? So that chance was at the time a lot smaller (if we pretend that it’s random, etc.)
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Apr 13, 2011 5:08 AM EDT up reply actions
I was working on the theory that the JVS group had 4 people in it
But my memory might be wrong on that
So v simplistic… just saying that JV would have thought he had a good chance if the group stayed away, and a good chance if it came back together (and yes, I am slightly ignoring the group that was stuck between cance and jvs)
not pretending to be mathematically perfect… :)
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
Last sentence
Yeah, defo the result isn’t the sole arbiter. Because sometimes, you can win off shitty tactics. Also, good tactics lose. For ex., I thought tactically, Rabobank played this Paris-Roubaix beautifully. They always had riders in the right spot, and strong riders at that. Unfortunately for Tjallingi, Van Summeren had better legs.
And as a side note, the shoving match between Boom and Flecha was amusing ;)
Boom on Flecha
“Those things happen in the race. All day he rode around in the peloton like he didn’t care someone crashed, which irked me. I wanted to hold Cancellara’s wheel and he made a move to take it from me so I cut him away in a corner. That’s all there is to say about that.”
http://nos.nl/video/232100-dit-ligt-me-beter-dan-vlaanderen.html
Apparently
All day long Boom was most of all interested in what Flecha did in the peloton.
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Apr 13, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I am not a DS and never will be
But the pulling back of riders puzzled me at the time and it still does a bit. The rest of Garmin’s tactics made perfect sense to me, both In the Ronde and on Sunday.
The reason that you want to break not to get too far away is so that everyone is working, yes? Everyone but JVS, of course, since he has numbers behind if everyone plays silly buggers. But if you have numbers up front (ie. you haven’t dropped them back to help Cancellara and Hushovd) your chances in the break are that much higher, no? Especially if you have JVS in the break, since on paper he was clearly the pick of the break.
So you’re giving away your numerical advantage in the break on the basis that at least everyone will work. That assumes, of course, that everyone does work in the break, and I’m not sure that premise is good. Meanwhile, you risk bringing up a crazily strong Cancellara. Gee, you’d be praying hard that Van Summeren doesn’t get a flat…
Unless, of course, Vaughters trusts Hushovd to stick with Cancellara and beat him in the sprint if it comes to that. That’s a helluva gamble. I’d want Cancellara as far away from the front as possible. By keeping your options open, you’re diminishing the strength of option 1, which is your strength and numbers in the break.
It’s moot now, of course, since Van Summeren did the job.
I wonder...
… if there was a bit of “keep Thor happy” in it. If you dont bring people back, AND ban Thor from working, you are basically screwing his P-R right there. Which would presumably piss Thor off pretty spectacularly.
So, you want to keep Thor moving forward both from a tactical and man management perspective, but you know if he rotates with Cance, Spartacus will eventually knock him on the head. So you have to sacrifice SOMETHING… and pulling a rider out of the break may be the best of a range of tricky options.
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
+1
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
by PopUp Rolen on Apr 13, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
No, if you have numbers in the break then you are expected to work more.
By dropping riders back to Thor, it looks like they are all in for Thor. So then JVS can take it easy in the break, and the break is motivated to keep the other teams main guy (Thor) out of the front group.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
okay, that makes sense
Although with numbers, they could always have left JVS out of the turns and had the others working.
I still don’t quite get the ’we’ll keep the bunch close’ theory. That still looks more like they’re chasing down their own man. And a bunch that is closing in will often prompt a selection in the break. If he wanted to avoid them ‘looking at each other’ I don’t know that it helps. As it turns out, of course, forcing a selection was the right play anyway.
Garmin's plan only worked because QS was wiped out of the equation.
That P-R is one merciless race.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Agreed sminer. if Boonen +1 made it to the party, i think Thor, Tommeke, Fabian and Ballan have a helluva fire fight
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
they didnt do much 'chasing'
they basically held the break at about 40secs. did the gap go down at all until fabian attacked? you can see the group 40 secs up the road if its a straight road and vice versa. thats way too close for anyone up front to start playing games. they have radios so they know who is in the group chasing them. dropping guys back gives the illusion that you are going to chase them down. at least for a little while.
by mr. rogers on Apr 13, 2011 8:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
this level of tactical schenanigans is nearly enough
to put me in the “Take away their radios and just race the f’ing races” camp.
If the tolerance is 1 minute and 20 seconds in how far the break can dangle, let’s take away the tool that allows this kind of micro-managing and just see who can generate the most watts while paying attention to who is in the bunch.
Vlaanderens Mooiste
That race put me in the take away the radio camp as well
but honestly only because it would have changed that race and possibly the outcome to my liking.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
I'm not buying it
Sounds all very smart now but I’m guessing they chased thinking they could get Cancellara and Thor away. Thor sitting on Cancellara and then beating him in the sprint.
That's my inclination too.
I just think they had an eager JVS up front who wanted off the leash and they thought they’d et him have a go. If he didn’t get away solo, then they would have been up the creek.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Would they though?
If JVS doesn’t get away on Carrefour they let Thor ride behind. With the smallish gap it may very well come together?
If it then comes back together
doesn’t Cancellara take off for victory at some point?
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
I think the one thing Garmin was trying to avoid
was having Cancellara in the front group. I think they assumed he would get there eventually and they wanted to do what they could to keep assure they could control him to keep Thor in the picture.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
I saw a quote where they told JVS he could attack, but if he did he had to go alone
I think if someone else had attacked and come out of the Carrefour Garmin would have chased him down. Another reason to keep the gap manageable, so you can chase down anything that is not to your liking that happens up front.
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