Liège-Bastogne-Liège: Côte-o-mania
by Jen See on Apr 22, 2011 3:53 PM EDT
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While we wait for those Expert People to show up... Chris is somewhere in a car on the East Coast. Really, I didn't know they drove cars on the East Coast, I thought that was a Cali thing. Apparently, they do. Chris has the expert picks for our final race in the Temporary Experts Series. And yes, we are currently trying to think of a new game for the Giro d'Italia. Because games are fun.
Wondering about the course for Liège-Bastogne-Liège? Short answer: it's hilly. The climbs are similar to the Amstel Gold Race, though a bit longer, generally. The Real Action typically goes down on the final four: Côte de la Redoute (2.1 km, avg. 8.4%), Côte de la Roche aux Faucons (1.5 km, avg. 9.9%), Côte de la Saint Nicolas (1.0 km, avg. 11.1%), and the final climb to the finish line at Ans. Want to know more? Allow me to send you to my 2009 preview over at Steephill. The Côte de la Roche aux Faucons is a popular spot for the long attack. Andy Schleck escaped and won solo from this climb in 2009.
There's no reason that Philippe Gilbert can't win this race, the way he has the last two Ardennes races. Except for the small detail that no one has done The Triple since Davide Rebellin. Of course, no one had done the Fall Double either in recent years, and Gilbert managed that one with aplomb. Can a bike racer have aplomb? I'm not so sure. Panache, maybe, though the word, it is so, well, used. Merckx says that Gilbert is better than Merckx, and he should know since he is, in fact, Merckx. Who am I to argue?
The final climb to Ans suits Gilbert's characteristics to perfection. It may be that the only way to beat the Belgian classics talent is to go from a long way out, like Schleck did in 2009. Gilbert's Omega-Lotto team has proven adept at keeping the escapes under control. I can't say I have any good advice on this one. Pedal hard? Have fun storming the castle?
Liège-Bastogne-Liège is always one of my favorite races of the year. The line-up of climbs from La Redoute to the finish makes for hard racing and typically, a good number of attacks as the race splits and reforms over each successive côte. I'd love to see a surprise winner, but it's rare to see an outsider win a monument, especially one as difficult as Liège. The roads are narrow, so positioning is key. The climbs are steep, so good legs are a must. I may not always like the winner in Ans, but it's rare to think that the strongest rider did not win when we come to the end of the day.
Got picks? Prognostications? Snark? Feel free to share.
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I'm thinking this is going to be similar result as paris roubaix, with all the top tier guys watching the race from the chase group
a breakaway of second and third tier guys stays away while all the favorites watch Lotto implode in the chase and fail to bring it back. Leopard, Rabo and Katusha will all be in the break, but not their main guys. Kolobnev will finally turn that perpetual second into a first, and LuLu and Ben Hermans will sneak onto the podium.
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
The weather conditions (if I understand right it will be sunny and warm) might favour an upset. Still, it’s very rare that this happens at Liege – I’m just looking at the list of winners, not too many guys on there recently who could really be considered anything but strong favourites. I think the problem at Liege is that the hills are just so selective – obviously you need a strong team, but those break groups are only as good as the climbing ability of each rider, so are less likely to succeed.
Still, I’m sure a lot of the teams will be saying to themselves “Gilbert is just so strong that we have to send as many people up the road as possible.” So maybe we end up with a surprise, I’m just hoping not as I’d really like to see Gilbert win ;)
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Apr 22, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
btw interesting video here on this matter, Gilbert asked whether he will be the “Cancellara of the Ardennes” i.e. the guy who can’t get away because everyone is marking him, he responds “it’s harder than in Flanders and Roubaix, where you can always follow the big favourites . . . but here, when the favourite goes fast in the climbs, at the top it’s 1 or 2 guys with him.”
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Apr 22, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
That's crazy thinking.
No way can it be like Paris – Roubaix, Gilbert has team mates while Cancellara has surrounded himself with cheerleaders.
Sign seen at entrance of local bike shop, " \o/ spoken here.". - Okay, I made it up, but wouldn't that be cool?
I don't get that
O’Grady- Roubaix winner and solid classics man
Posthuma- De Panne winner and solid classics rider on Rabo for years
Klemme- top 10 Roubaix last year, big talent
Weylandt- top talent from QS
That is not that bad a lineup for a team that is mostly built for GTs. They didn’t fire on all cylinders this year but I think it’s more than a little unfair to label them cheerleaders?
:-)
My words were tainted with a fresh memory of an O’Grady interview. Andy races like Eddy Merckx Did you ever hear this cheer?
Yay Fabu he’s our man, if he can’t do it Frank can.
Yay Frank he’s our man, if he can’t do it Andy can. . . .
That’s what I keep hearing whenever I hear someone from Leopard Wrek
When Andy won LBL a few years ago he was getting help from his team mates after he attacked, they were at the front of the chase trying to break it up and they were succeeding. I don’t see that happening at the Wrek, but I hear the chorus. YAY Team! We’re the best. RAH RAH!
Sign seen at entrance of local bike shop, " \o/ spoken here.". - Okay, I made it up, but wouldn't that be cool?
yah
He didn’t have a very strong team, but if we see that, Nygaard probably does too. But even though I do it all the time, it’s probably good to remind ourselves not to jump to conclusions about quality based on one race or even a round of races in the classics. Too many things can happen to ruin one’s day, quality or no.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Apr 23, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Or, if you're going to jump to conclusions
probably best to do it with the right equipment.
Sometimes I take comfort in the fact that there is a parallel universe in which I'm winning both versions of VDS.
by omnevelnihil on Apr 23, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
What would that make me? Level headed? Bah.
Sometimes I wish I were as cool as a monk or a yogi, but I’m usually looking for a more animated state when I’m thinking about cycling.
Sign seen at entrance of local bike shop, " \o/ spoken here.". - Okay, I made it up, but wouldn't that be cool?
His team will be there longer, but when they are the only team chasing, they are not going to last 260k
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
the fact that he finished 80th or something at FW give me hope that he’s not at his top form ;)
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Apr 22, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
He helped bringing the break with Löfkvist and Kiriyenka back
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Apr 22, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, he appeared rather ostentatiously on the front, didn't he,
which led me to think he was getting some credit in the bank for this Sunday.
"I’m hoping for the Mortirolo-Gavia combination, then we can ride down to Bormio for ice cream." Emma Pooley on the Giro Donne
sacchetto di sabbia
I think he’s been letting J-Rod have his days. He looks like he is where he should be.
Which he didn't win the year he got caught
even though he carried on like he did.
"I’m hoping for the Mortirolo-Gavia combination, then we can ride down to Bormio for ice cream." Emma Pooley on the Giro Donne
god it will so suck if he wins
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Apr 22, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
How about
raise money to send Phil to the Giro?
It's Timofey MOZGOD time
Ujiri for MVE
Karl for COY
GALLO!!!
Ooh Giro game! Any hints Phil?
"I love bike races warm up, warm down, cobbles mountains or flats."
perezbike
.
What, you thought We will leave you alone this year?
No! We had so much fun with that Game of yours last season!
"I love bike races warm up, warm down, cobbles mountains or flats."
perezbike
.
If you demand it
I never really planned anything for the Giro, assumed nobody would actually care.
It's Timofey MOZGOD time
Ujiri for MVE
Karl for COY
GALLO!!!
Are you kidding!?
One of the best thing in the Café!
Please Phil! Please!
"I love bike races warm up, warm down, cobbles mountains or flats."
perezbike
.
Thank you, Sir! Looking forward to play!
"I love bike races warm up, warm down, cobbles mountains or flats."
perezbike
.
Me too! Mind you, there are many unknown names on that starting list for me...more fun :)
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
One of my two favorite races of the year
Phil Gil invitational is right. Normally I don’t expect streaks like this to continue. But he’s suck a f@#$ing hoss this time around I think he’ll pull it off.
Otherwise, Frankie Schleck FTW.
My fruit bowl is full of sex wax--gavia
My picks...
Gilbert
Vino
Ryder
Oh, and we drive about 50% of the time here on the East Coast. The other 50% we spend parked on Interstates.
I no longer know what my limits are - Philippe Gilbert
Ha!
Yes, I feel certain you do plenty of driving. But you know, the cliché is that it’s a Cali thingy.
you're so late to the game
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
Don't ask me why....
but the name Robert Haysink or someone else wearing Rabobank colours appeared to me in the proverbial dream. But in the dream I was Cancellara watching it from the bathtub and the chick was distracting so I wouldn’t bet my bike on it.
next time....don't forget the gravy!!
Cancellara in the bathtub?
Wait, what were we talking about?
I like tinkering with the boys.
- majope
TONY MARTIN FTW!!!
Crazy talk? Probably. My VDS team would be happy. He says he’s targetting a top-10. I hadn’t even considered him for Liège at all. I didn’t even know he was racing.
"Gold medal, silver medal, bronze medal; for me, potato." - Emil Zatopek
That would be sweet
he definitely has the form this year. A top-10 is a definite possibility but a podium seems a bit lofty for this year. I do think he is a lock for Romandie if he is there to win it.
It's Timofey MOZGOD time
Ujiri for MVE
Karl for COY
GALLO!!!
+1...if he could TT away at the end...Oh how sweet that would be.
by Vlaanderen90 on Apr 22, 2011 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions
This will not stand..
Holmovka flattered Phil’s echo up there, like he needed that?!, so can’t blame him but Vlaanderen and sylvan.. T. Martin?! That guy who barely can push his peddal on a 10% hill is a threat for a top 10 place?! We are talking about steep hills here and where they attack and all.. Where they accelarate.. If you want a German.. Pick Martens! or Wegmann
LALALALALA Can't hear you! Definitely no need for acceleration at Liege...
Martens and Wegmann will get stuck doing work all day…one of them in the top 15.
Martens is practically half-Dutch now and Wegmann is a lay-o-pard…I’d rather cheer for Knees and 31st place!
by Vlaanderen90 on Apr 22, 2011 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions
There is too little of a sample size on Tmarts classics campaign to say he has no chance
he hasn’t been a leader since really this year and is without a doubt having a breakout season. He looked fine on the steep slopes at Algarve and PN.
It's Timofey MOZGOD time
Ujiri for MVE
Karl for COY
GALLO!!!
Also my echo is surely flattered
maybe even two times…or three times if we are in a cave.
It's Timofey MOZGOD time
Ujiri for MVE
Karl for COY
GALLO!!!
De Vlaeminck and Godefroot both won here
Godefroot even had five total top 5 finishes. Although it was a different era, I think it is possible that Martin could be top ten. Moser was 3rd here in 1978, the only time I see a record of him finishing, and he is probably a better comparison to Martin than the other two. The thing is only so many guys can go away in the first group or two before all those climbers you think are better than him on paper are in a position where they have to chase their team leader. If the team is riding for Martin and someone like Albasini isn’t up the road Martin could manage a top ten. I think he will develop more as a GC threat and diesel style climber in the future and don’t want to predict it just yet because I haven’t seen much about his form and race schedule but I think he has a few top tens in his future if he targets LBL and the classics in future years.
Lbl finished with a flat run-in from la redoute
Not the same race anymore.
by R Mc on Apr 23, 2011 7:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The last 2 races I've been saying Gilbert won't win
This time, I think Gilbert will win.
So, he probably won’t?
Sometimes I'm not even sure if you're really playing
seeing as how your answer is always the same.
But then you keep being right…
Sometimes I take comfort in the fact that there is a parallel universe in which I'm winning both versions of VDS.
by omnevelnihil on Apr 22, 2011 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions
When she picks Gilbert to win the Tour then you may be on to something
It's Timofey MOZGOD time
Ujiri for MVE
Karl for COY
GALLO!!!
My picks...
are secret until the Experts Thread come out ;)
However, my VDS Ascension is taking:
PhilGil
Philip Deignan
Dan Martin
Sylvain Chavanel
Ivan Basso
Igor Anton
Izagirre – Ion Izagirre would be Jon Izagirre on the startlist i think? (Albertina, am i right?)
Egoi Martinez
Crazy Johnny Hoogerland
David Moncoutie
That’s a fairly strong team there, i’m pretty confident of 3 in the Top 10, PhilGil, Anton and i think Chavanel’s form will get me my 3rd Top 10 place tbh.
I’ve had a storming couple of weeks in VS, up into the top 40 having been about 200th before the big classics. Boonen’s let me down though, big time.
If it wasn't for the fact that the same guy beat him both times...
We’d have to be pretty impressed with J-Rod’s Ardennes thus far.
So my prediction is…
1. J-Rod
2. Gilbert
3. Anton (one of the Sleeping Maiden crew)
Not feeling too confident about the rest of my team, though I imagine Gesink will turn up somewhere in the top 20.
What else can I say? I'm really happy. --Vincenzo Nibali
Despite being in a car
we weren’t actually driving. Stupid fucking Easter traffic….
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Apr 22, 2011 9:36 PM EDT reply actions
But when you are in the east you don't have to go so far to get someplace.
Sign seen at entrance of local bike shop, " \o/ spoken here.". - Okay, I made it up, but wouldn't that be cool?
Stop and go on the Turnpike
and New Jersey doesn’t feel so small after all.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Apr 23, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
You're in New Jersey?
Well, THERE’s ya problem..
Frustration has a way of releasing itself, rarely in a logical manner. -jsallee00
Am I crazy for thinking that Gerrans has a shot at this?
"Age and treachery will overcome youth and skill" - Fausto Coppi
Gerrans also seems to think it's a good race for him....
Although this does come from a one-eyed and horrifically biased publication, so I wouldn’t put too much stock in it.
Sometimes I take comfort in the fact that there is a parallel universe in which I'm winning both versions of VDS.
by omnevelnihil on Apr 23, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
It is a great race for him
Question is if he’s actually good enough to beat Phil + Schlecks + Vino. He’s one of the guys who has to follow wheels and depend on some punch at the end, he doesn’t have the versatility of Gilbert or the long-range capability of Vino, Kolobnev, Schlecks… He can win, but the circumstances where I think he can are pretty narrow.
My fruit bowl is full of sex wax--gavia
by Douglas Ansel on Apr 23, 2011 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Sminer: I blame KARMA for everything.
Jens: I've heard it's a bitch
Water Girl: I heard it ran over your dogma
I agree completely.
Sorry, I wasn’t clear enough in my comment. I was berating the SMH for the quality of its cycling coverage. Not trying to comment on Gerrans’ ability to win, which as you say, will have far more to do with circumstances on race day.
Here’s hoping.
Sometimes I take comfort in the fact that there is a parallel universe in which I'm winning both versions of VDS.
by omnevelnihil on Apr 24, 2011 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I had Gerrans on my VDS 2-3 years ago
and he won a stage. I still revel in the awesomeness of picking Gerrans 3 years ago.
"My Back is Fuck!" - Comrade
If he does win today
I will in no way be obnoxious about the fact that he is on my Ed’s league team (you know, the one that has an 800 point lead) or my VDS team. No siree.
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