Where Flandriens Still Dare: Power Poll 2.0!
by Chris Fontecchio on Apr 5, 2011 7:22 PM EDT
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Though it pains me to say so, we're more than halfway through the cobbled portion of the Spring Classics, with only two events to go, and only one that you might order a DVD of. The races only seem to get more exciting and intriguing, but then that's the Classics. We argue back and forth about strategies and outcomes, but I caution people against assuming riders and managers have more control over the situation than they do. Shit happens-- fast, without warning, without even a lot of logic. How could Fabian Cancellara suddenly break down? Why did Sylvain Chavanel wake up with what he called "legs of fire" and Pippo Pozzato didn't? Why did nobody see Nick Nuyens coming? Answer: that's the Classics for ya.
Which is a long way of saying that this updated Power Poll will not simply recite the finishing order of the Ronde van Vlaanderen. Nick Nuyens was Number One for a day -- a very big day -- and may be Number One in a lot of Flemish hearts today. But unless Bjarne Riis got Cancellara to give the motor back so that it could be hooked up to Nuyens' drive train, I'm not predicting Nuyens does the Double. So onto the poll! (Prior ranking included)
To the Flipmobile!
1. (1) Fabian Cancellara ↔
Opening Statement:
Possible Waterloo: Tour of Flanders. After Cancellara took second in MSR, we know he's fit. And he did the double last season. Which means all eyes are on Fabu. In Flanders, the scrum to get on his wheel will be epic. However, in the right group they'll be so glued to him that he can't accelerate away. And in the end, he'll get Devoldered.
Results: Winaar, E3 Prijs; 3rd Ronde
Last Lap: In the end, he got Chavaneled instead, which is sort of a hybrid "OK, you caught me but you can't stop me" outcome. Of course, until he cramped up we all expected Chava to get Boonened on the Muur. Speaking of cramps. Is cramping a sort of post-race unsandbagging for riders who just got beat? Is it that hard to drink water? Can we blame this on the UCI somehow? For my money, he got klopt. Which is Dutch for... I dunno, but it sounds bad, in kind of a cartoonish, hit-over-the-head way.
Seriously, if we want to talk strategy goofs, don't we start here? Clearly the race showed he was the strongest man, but he didn't win. That happens, but Cancellara is hardly helpless in the face of sprinters. Whatever his faults are in the final 200 meters, Spartacus has shown plenty of ability to accelerate away and time trial to victory. In the E3, a race that's 50km and six climbs short of de Ronde, Cancellara ended the race with a 20km crono, attacking out of a pretty splintered group. Then on a harder, hotter day he goes from 45km, against a much bigger peloton. Why do this instead of dropping everyone on the Muur or the Bosberg or even after, on the flats, and shortening the crono? Vanity? Did the element of surprise really matter all that much? Interestingly, he did almost the same thing in 2007, on the Berendries just after the Leberg, and they caught him in Geraardsbergen then too.
But he's still #1, partly because nobody else looked better, and partly because Paris-Roubaix is his perfect race, not Flanders.
2. (2) Tom Boonen ↔
Opening Statement:
Possible Waterloo: As for Flanders, if he gets to the line with Cancellara, Tommeke can still win. But if they're together coming into Ninove, Boonen will get Tafi'd till he's powerless to stop it.
Results: Winaar, Gent-Wevelgem; 4th Ronde
Last Lap: Hm, it's early in the accountability process, but I came out smoking in the last poll. I'm sure that'll last (cough). Boonen did indeed get Tafi'd (attacked on the flats in the final kms), but sadly for him Nuyens and Chava didn't, so his last-ditch catchup maneuver fell short. Prior to that, his race was a mix of typical Boonen, standing tall on the climbs, and 2008-09 Boonen, sitting anxiously in the pack with a teammate up the road. Combined with his win last weekend, there is no reason to fault Boonen's performance level or prospects for Paris-Roubaix, other than to point out that he's still not as strong as Cancellara. In a two-man escape I don't hate Tommeke's chances of hanging on and winning in the velodrome, but I don't love them either.
3. (14) Nick Nuyens ↑
Opening Statement:
Possible Waterloo: When does he start next?
Bonus! From the comments:
If Nuyens shows up...and pulls some major VDS points this year after I carried his ass the last few years, I will hunt him down and the UCI will list him as missing from testing. -Sminer
Results: Winaar, Dwars door Vlaanderen; Winaar, Ronde van Vlaanderen
Last Lap: Hey, it wasn't just me. Also, can we try a little experiment and insert "Vlaanderen" into Paris-Roubaix to see if he wins there too? Just curious...
Nuyens is the living embodiment of a fundamental, if sometimes overlooked, principle of racing: if you aren't strong enough to stomp away from the competition, then your next job is to survive and see what happens. Let's be honest, this is essentially what Jonathan Vaughters told Farrar to do, but from the reaction around the sport you'd think he was advocating for paving over the Koppenberg. Nobody is upset that Nuyens was invisible until the final km, because winning justifies the means. Riders are paid to win, not to be the Lion of Flanders. Cancellara tried to be the Lion of Flanders, not without reason, and it's not without benefits if you can pull it off. But guess whose sponsor is happier today?
4. (4) Alessandro Ballan ↔
Opening Statement:
Date with Destiny: ... My guess is that Flanders is his big target. It's really the ideal race for him as long as it's hard enough to keep the sprinters away. He accelerates well and gets over the hellingen very quickly.
Results: 12th, Ronde
Last Lap: No question he's getting up and down very, very well, but I don't know that we'll get any payoff for it. "We," of course, being the 86 VDS teams counting on his big comeback. Coming over the Muur I thought he looked sensational again, and I don't have any problem with BMC telling him to set up Hincapie in the final few km, a sensible move if the mini-peloton had stayed together for the sprint. In hindsight, once things split up Ballan would have been better off going for it, but again that's the Classics for you. Things happen far too quickly for a team to huddle up and decide on the best course of action.
Did you all catch that BMC had their entire team, minus crashed-out Karsten Kroon, leading the chase of Cancellara after the Leberg? Their entire team?!? A lot of fine riders had been spit out the back by then, and it's no surprise that aces Ballan, Hincapie, Van Avermaet and Quinziato survived. But chapeau to Danilo Wyss, Mickey Schar and the scraped-up carcass of Marcus Burghardt for staying strong late into Vlaanderens mooiste. And double chapeau for taking charge of the race when enough teams had given up hope. As Cuddles said, "I like this team. They fight."
5. (10) Sebastian Langeveld ↑
Opening Statement:
Date with Destiny: Tour of Flanders. No reason he shouldn't be at the front, and if he's as aggressive this time as he was in the Omloop, Langeveld could catch a lot of guys napping again.
Results: 5th Ronde (winaar, Omloop)
Last Lap: Crikey, I was on fricking fire when I wrote the last poll. Well, except for the winaar. Not that that's important. Anyway, Langeveld was not merely among the last men standing, but even launched a homestretch attack, proving to the masses that he tried. In post-race interviews he said he had no chance in a sprint, but is that literally true? Maybe only if Flecha is involved... anyway, he had two modest cards to play, and he played one. More importantly though, Langeveld has had a great season and he and Boom would be major, major players if Matti Breschel were healthy and scaring the daylights out of groups like the one that came into Ninove first yesterday. With the possible exception of their medical examiners, I give Rabo tons of credit for putting together a perfect team.
6. (3) Philippe Gilbert ↓
Opening Statement:
Possible Waterloo: He has all the tools in the toolbox to win in Flanders, but this will be a crowded, immensely-strong field, and Gilbert will have to do more than just react to the other favorites. This may be unrealistic fanspeak, but he could Devolder the field, say on the Tenbosse, and all those guys glued to Cancellara's or Boonen's wheel will have a really tough choice to make.
Results: 36th, GW; 9th, Ronde
Last Lap: Kind of a nonsensical prediction there, though mostly in the details. The bigger picture is that Gilbert has been very good, but short of the magical form we've come to demand of him. Speaking of tactical errors, why did he bother going on the Bosberg? In hindsight it wasn't so bad, he says he pulled up when he realized it wasn't going to work, so maybe he spent too little of himself to fault him. But for a while yesterday I had him fingered for worst strategy, launching a 2km attack from 15k out instead of, say, 2km.
7. (unr) George Hincapie ↑
Opening Statement:
[crickets]
Results: 30th, GW; 6th, Ronde
Last Lap: I could pull up another bonus quote or two here but I'll spare some of you the shame. But there were at least 200 starters yesterday who wish that time had passed them by the same way it's passed by George. Of the guys in the survive-and-see-what-happens set yesterday, Hincapie was as strong as anyone.
[I have to admit, with about 4km to go I pulled what I call a "1986 World Series," where I start prematurely clearing furniture out of the way so I can jump up and down at the final moment -- in Hincapie's honor. I root for a pretty big handful of guys in any given race, but for me a Hincapie win carries historical significance and the reward of perseverance, in addition to a good result. However, the 86WS maneuver is about as big and powerful a jinx as there is, anywhere, so to BMC and George Hincapie, my sincerest apologies.]
8. (9) Thor Hushovd ↑
Opening Statement:
+/-: "He can do it all." Except at the Tour of Flanders.
Results: pfft.
Last Lap: Hushovd, more than anyone on this list, is a Classics one-trick pony. That trick happens next Sunday. I haven't seen anything to change my mind that he's a top-five favorite, at worst, and a guy with a real chance to win. In a sense Garmin-Cervelo have been like Rabobank up to now, with lots of strong guys but no clear top-end option (save for Farrar in GW). That changes next week.
9. (8) Bjorn Leukemans ↓
Opening Statement:
Possible Waterloo: Flanders. Unless the weather turns, there will be a pretty big crowd at the front. He'll need sharp elbows just to have a chance of picking his way through again.
Results: 17th, Dwars; 7th, Ronde
Last Lap: Let's face it, I punted on Leukemans before and I'm punting again now. That opening statement is a lot more vapid than it may appear. You could say the same about pretty much anyone. I dunno, for some reason I just don't have a feel for him. I will point out that I've swapped him and Thor, despite Leukemans finishing 7th yesterday. That was his big day, while Thor will probably do better than 7th on his big day.
10. (5) Filippo Pozzato ↓
Opening Statement:
Date with Destiny: Paris-Roubaix. It's a war of attrition, and if there's one thing Pozzato does well, it's survive. His second there in 2009 was impressive. Of course, as usual there was no clear pathway to victory, but at least in Hell he can hope the faster finishers fall off their bikes before the velodrome.
Possible Waterloo: Flanders.
Results: 38th, Ronde
Last Lap: Reports of his death are premature; Pippo finished at the back of the first big chase group, led in by Farrar in 13th place. Flanders and Roubaix are very different races, for reasons we will beat to death this week, but for some reason, even though I called it, it surprises me that Pippo is so much better in one than the other. I guess climbing is really only one tool for the crowded Flanders toolbelt.
11. (unr) Sylvain Chavanel ↑
Opening Statement:
[crickets]
Results: 4th, Driedaagse de Panne; 2nd, Ronde
Last Lap: Firelegs would have been an even more shocking winner than Nuyens yesterday, and one can't help wonder what the fans in Ninove would have reacted to on the podium, the shirt or La Marseillaise. [They do anthems, yes? Thought I heard it at the Scheldeprijs....] Ordinarily I would think that Lefevre might try to avoid using up Chav in Paris-Roubaix, saving him for Brabantse Pijl and Amstel Gold, but they're shorthanded and anyway Chava was 8th in Roubaix once. I'll definitely tap him for a result in Brabantse Pijl. Anything more than that would be more shock.
12. (7) Juan Antonio Flecha ↓
Opening Statement:
Date with Destiny: E3 Prijs. Flecha is at his best attacking on a long flat after a reasonably hard race (e.g., the Omloop). E3 sets up nicely for him, with 16km back to Harelbeke after the Tiegemberg.
Results: 11th, Ronde (2nd, Omloop)
Last Lap: Here is where I have officially cooled off in the predictions game. Flecha skipped E3 entirely though he hung on to the final selection for 11th yesterday. I don't expect anything special next weekend from him, but I wouldn't close his account yet either.
13. (12) Tyler Farrar ↓
Opening Statement:
Possible Waterloo: Ronde. That fifth last year has raised expectations perhaps a bit too high. I'd give him a year or two before expecting him to really compete for the win in Flanders.
Bonus Quote!
Farrar: [Millar] went when Fabian went on the Molenberg. And it was great for us, like I said, because I can play that card hiding in the group behind and hope they come back in the closing kilometers. For me, any time I start getting out in the wind in the final two hours, the less likely I’m going to be there at the finish. So I just have to gamble at those races and just hope someone else does the work and gets me where I need to be.... I’ve always been decent at the longer races.... You know, sprinting against guys after 150k in the espoir race I would maybe get fourth place, fifth place. Sprinting against them after 200k I would get second. I handle distance failry well, the distance itself is never really the issue. The issue is if they blow up my engine on a climb, there’s not much you can do. So in Flanders, the fact that it’s 250k isn’t the issue; the issue is whether I can get over all those hills.
Results: 3rd, Dwars; 3rd, GW; 13th, Ronde
Last Lap: I get that everyone thinks I'm such a homer for Farrar, but the only thing to complain about for him is the lack of sprint wins. He has one more shot Wednesday, after which we can either say he had a poor run this spring or that he out-performed all the sprinter dudes, depending on the result. Two podiums so far is more than everyone except Cancellara and Nuyens; all he needs is a win.
I included that interview bit to help point out, if possible, how utterly unscandalous Vaughters' quote was yesterday. Riders tend to know what they can and cannot do -- even Philippe Gilbert learned that he can't go solo at 75km... eventually -- and Farrar has been pretty open about what his chances are in de Ronde. But it's not just Farrar. Almost everyone in the peloton should have a pretty good idea by now of when they're close to their limit -- or past it. We can shout at them to close down a break or to launch an attack, but if that were possible, isn't there about a 95% chance they'd have done so already? If you can win on the attack, then you attack, because it's probably better odds-wise than waiting for the end. And if you can't attack, then you wait for the end, because it's almost certainly better than nothing.
As for the team, perhaps a more pertinent question is why Haussler is 8' back, Klier even further, and three guys DNF'd. The top two are doing what you'd expect, and Hammond was on the early attack, but the depth guys aren't looking too deep right now. Maybe Vaughters' biggest error is his failure to invent or procure a time machine. One where he and Sep Vanmarcke can head off into the future, swap out 22-year-old Sep for, say, fully-developed 25-year-old Sep, transplant the latter back in the 2011 team, and start kicking major ass. Cuz that guy is who they needed yesterday.
14. (unr) Geraint Thomas ↑
Opening Statement:
[more crickets]
Results: 2nd, Dwars; 10th, Ronde
Last Lap: Jeebus, where the hell did he come from? Thomas, inches from his first win last week, was smoking yesterday late in the race, finishing 10th even after wasting energy trying to tow Flecha around. The 24-year-old Brit is coming of age in a hurry this spring. He's way up on the list of people whose effort next week I am very, very curious to see.
15. (13) Edvald Boasson Hagen ↓
Opening Statement:
Date with Destiny: Tour of Flanders. A sprint out of the chasing bunch for a high placement is a very realistic option.
Results: 40th, Ronde
Last Lap: Poor guy. Rumors of fitness issues cropped up last week, though Sky did their best to deny them. But when he failed to turn up at any of the earlier classics, I figured, he's on my Editors' League team, so his knee probably exploded or his achilles burst into flames. Something horrible and debilitating. But there was half-fit Eddy, charging over the Muur, making the selection prior to the Bosberg, and rolling in with the Farrar group. He's still the new Merckx.
16. (15) Peter Sagan ↓
Opening Statement:
Date with Destiny: Driedaagse de Panne. With a few sprints and the one hard stage, he could walk off with pretty much everything.
Results: 6th 3daagse st. 1; 3rd 3daagse st. 2; DNS st. 3; DNF, Ronde
Last Lap: I could justify dropping him from the poll, but as soon as I do that he'll win the Scheldeprijs or something. He's had some crappy luck in his first go-round in Belgium. Probably won't last. How many bikes can he break?
17. (18) Lars Boom ↑
Opening Statement:
Possible Waterloo: Flanders? I don't expect anything bad; it's just that if he isn't on the attack at 240km everyone will keep saying he can only win the shorter races.
Results: 9th, GW; 37th, Ronde
Last Lap: What's a Vlijmenaar? Google says it means "razor back." The Lars Boom Enigma deepens.... Boom was on the attack, joining Chavanel after attacking on the Eikenberg. Seemed like a great idea at the time. He also survived to the finish with the main peloton. Both are improvements over last year, though probably not enough to satisfy impatient fans.
18. (6) Matt Goss ↓
Opening Statement:
Possible Waterloo: Paris-Roubaix. The process with Goss has been to say "well, sure, but he hasn't done (fill in the blank) yet." All we're doing is kicking the "Goss is the Boss" can down the road. Eventually we'll have to pick it up, or however that metaphor works. Anyway, "dropping Cancellara on the Carrefour de l'Arbe" is one of the few remaining ways to fill in that blank.
Results: DNF, Ronde
Last Lap: I didn't catch what happened to him yesterday. He's been ill anyway so very little was gonna happen anyway. Hope he gets back on track for next week. Let's see where this is going.
19. (20) Greg Van Avermaet ↑
Opening Statement:
Date with Destiny: Gent-Wevelgem. Not sure why BMC doesn't do E3, but Hincapie has indicated that they like G-W well enough. Hincapie and Ballan may be holding their cards, but either way a multi-rider finale including GVA should allow him to take chances.
Results: 13th, GW; 22nd, Ronde
Last Lap: Great teamwork yesterday. I've liked everything I've seen from GvA this year. His turn is coming up soon, but not in France. He's on the Gilbert schedule.
20. (unr) Staf Schierlinckx ↑
Opening Statement:
[crickets]
Results: 8th, Ronde
Last Lap: Another guy who, if I slept on him before, I was in good company. Wait... ew. Anyway, he's a pretty steady latter-half-of-the-top-twenty in Roubaix, so if this is his historic run of form, look for it to extend into next weekend.
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Seemingly lost in the JV radio "scandal"
is the fact that coming into Geraardsbergen, BMC had their entire team at the front of the race while Garvelo was down to just Thor and Tyler. I realize that Van Summerin and Maaskant being out really hurt, but that had to be a pretty unhappy bus. “Superteam” hype notwithstanding, they should have made a better showing (even though they still did better than HTC).
JV has stated many times that radios are rarely used for race tactics and that the riders know what to do, and that’s not what radios are for. I find that vastly more ironic than rain on your wedding day.
I could have sworn that Pippo wasn’t on the results sheet when CN first posted it. Thought he DNF’ed.
The last two races look to be really good ones.
"It's really who can just push the biggest gear the fastest and the hardest, and I want to be that guy" - GHH
I too think Pozzato's name was missing initially on the pdf file linked to in the race threads
apparently they cleared it up later
better than HTC is not something worthy of mention
have a look at HTC’s squad. I am sure if HTC have the Garmin cobbles team they would have win a lot
Re-watching the race, I was amazed how much radios are used for tactical decisions
In the final 80k, ever time a rider found himself in front, it seems they immediately grabbed their kit to talk into their radio. Even Tommy V. I officially don’t buy the argument that directors don’t control the riders. To me, it seems they very much do.
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
good observation, imo
a basketball analogy, since we’re just out of March Madness: with/without radios seems to me like basketball vs soccer. In soccer, there are no timeouts, and the manager has to yell crap from the sidelines, as though from a team car. In basketball, the last 90 seconds take 10 minutes to play, because there’s a timeout with each change of possession. I always think of soccer as the “purer” game, since players learn what they can in practice, then it’s up to them to win or lose the game, not some constantly interfering coach. OK, end of rant ;)
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Apr 5, 2011 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Staf Schierlinckx
You’ve given him Cancellara’s results.
He was 8th in de Ronde and 22nd in E3.
also, you used a down arrow for greg va, when he went up a spot in this poll.
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
ah yes
the pitfalls of making a template, copying it 20 times, and inserting text. Missed those. Thanks!
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Apr 5, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Gilbert and Nuyens are done with the cobbles for the year.
AGR will be the next bigger race for both.
yup and in Nuyens' case it has been the plan from the beginning :)
As he says’ he’s allergic to the P-R dust.
Those two riders will be hunting the late spring classics and I think both will do well.
D'you hear that, Jens?
You will get even more points from Nuyens! Damn you…
Geraint Thomas
winner of P-R 2013. You heard it here first.
(Seems to take longer with the men cyclists, but will be more proof positive doing live chats or interviews at PdC = winaar)
I've been convinced on GT
since he popped up unexpectedly in the lead group in stage 3 last year. I know Spartacus wasnt going full gas for fear of blowing the Schlecklet up more spectacularly than Michael Caine’s minibus in the Italian Job, but he still was in the right place, right time, and with sufficient power to hang with a Cance / Thor / Evans group. The guy has it.
So what does he have…? Well, a pursuiter’s pure power, a decent lick of speed at the finish (though not an all out sprint to worry tommeke) and, seemingly, the nous to be where it matters, when it matters. I’m looking forward to watching this guy over the next decade
We may even need a nickname…
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
Nickname you say
The new British Cobbles Sensation: BCS! BCS!
It never fails.
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Apr 5, 2011 4:23 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
What about something relevant to being Welsh ?
Most welsh people I know (one half of my family) listed their nationality as Welsh rather than British if given the choice
+ a million
I went back and re-watched this race last night, and outside of Fabian and Chava, he was clearly the third strongest in the race. In five years time, I believe he’ll have at least a couple cobbled monuments and several classics.
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
I'm a believer too...He was on my short list for VDS and I cut him...dumbass that I am.
Don’t think he’ll win PR this year, but yeah…soon.
At the front with Cance & Thor on that PR-like TDF stage, front of this years classics…yep, I am a believer too.
you must mean 2nd
Dominique will outsprint him for the win.
"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."
Aren't past winners of the junior P-R meant to sink without trace?? ;-)
"I’m hoping for the Mortirolo-Gavia combination, then we can ride down to Bormio for ice cream." Emma Pooley on the Giro Donne
quite!
"I’m hoping for the Mortirolo-Gavia combination, then we can ride down to Bormio for ice cream." Emma Pooley on the Giro Donne
He's from Milton Keynes
Which is neither North or Essex
but it is a shithole.
(And before any locals object, I know Midsummer Boulevard from more than just a Cliff Richard video.)
Disagree about Leukemans having his big day in Flanders
In Roubaix he was 4th in 2007 and 6th last year. And it looked to me that Devolder has worse form and may have been working for Leukemans when he helped chase Cance. I think Leukemans will be the team leader on Sunday and should be capable of another strong ride.
What’s a Vlijmenaar? Google says it means “razor back.”
A Vlijmenaar is someone from Vlijmen, Noord-Brabant. Lars Boom’s home town ;)
Team Sky for Roubaix:
Kurt-Asle Arvesen, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Juan Antonio Flecha, Mathew Hayman, Jeremy Hunt, Ian Stannard, Geraint Thomas, Bradley Wiggins. It’s a strong team for Roubaix, if you ask me.
I think the brits are MUCH more likely to win PR before they win the TDF
We seem to produce power rouleurs and sprinters – which are ideal for PR. Climbers- not so much. Until we find a guy who can go up the hills in the lead group, GTs are off the menu.
Of course, the BCS (TM, The Figurehead) could win E3, RVV and PR, and the British media wouldnt have a clue…
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
yup
My one worry about G is that great though it’s been so far this spring to see him giving the Aussies a run for their money on the track, leading out Greg Henderson in an astonishing fashion at Paris-Nice, riding tempo for Wiggins up the climbs at the same race, killing over the cobbles at DDV & RVV, at some point he or someone else’ll need to decide what his priority is.
Top lad, mind.
"I’m hoping for the Mortirolo-Gavia combination, then we can ride down to Bormio for ice cream." Emma Pooley on the Giro Donne
"Geraint Thomas earns joint leadership for Paris-Roubaix"
Cycling Weekly. Should be read, if only because Ellingworth call Leopard-Trek Def Leppard (though it’s quoted as Def Leopard).
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Apr 5, 2011 7:17 AM EDT up reply actions
dang Def Leppard!
better to burn out than fade away!
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Apr 5, 2011 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions
EBH the new Merckx? Blasphemy
His big wins are G-W and a Giro stage (I am not counting the TTT stage). When Merckx was his age he had already won MSR twice, G-W, P-R, F-W, Catalunya, Romandie, a Giro GC, 6 Giro stages and been World Road Race Champion. I have nothing against EBH, I just couldn’t resist looking up what Merckx had done when the comparison was mentioned.
I thought I'd get that crack about the Tour of Britain
I had to limit the scope or I would have got carpal tunnel listing Merckx’s wins
If he gets
Eneco and ToC in the same year,
well nobody will be saying that it’s impossible to win the two greatest stage races back to back.
Even Eddy never did this double.
heh
I knew I’d get a rise out of someone there. It’s not serious.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Apr 5, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I know!
I come here from one thing and one thing only: Straight reporting of the facts with no embellishments, humor, or sarcasm. The ball is your court, PdC.
by Spot of Bother on Apr 5, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Question for you guys (and girls)
With MsR and The Ronde done it seems that its harder than it looks to put together a wining cycling team no? seems to me that Garvelo and the Leo-Pards are seeing the same sort of initial season that SKY had last year and CTT the year before- A winning team is more than a sexy bike supplier, space age bus, managerial talent and experience and talent everywhere.
A winning team also requires time…
I think that the tactical mismanagement we saw in the Ronde especially with Leopard (and to a slightly lesser extent with Garvelo) is due to the same toxic mix of splashy launch/Big dollar signings/Sponsor pressure/slightly reduced respect that is the achilles heel for all new teams regardless of the IQ of the cats running the show.
Look, we all love Fabu, but the man has an (appropriately) massive ego (referred to himself as “Superman”) and when he feels good, he tends to believe that he can do anything on a bike (like here and also significantly at Mendrisio RRWC in 2007). I reckon that when he is in this sort of outrageous form, he needs- and does not seem to have- a voice that he really respects and trusts to help him unleash the hounds ONCE and destroy everyone, as opposed to what he tried to do- okay damn near did- on Sunday.
Riis is what he is, but he is also a ridiculously successful manager who has won overall GT’s, cobbles, Tour stages, and all manner of cycling races. He has guided Fabu to ALL of his significant wins so far in a variety of ways and I’m sorry, I don’t think that Nygaard will have that amount of gravitas, especially since he is under some FEARSOME pressure to fill the white space on Fabu’s jersey (and Franck Schleck’s Aero enhanced TT skinsuit). This pressure tends to blunt tactical nous methinks…
Same for JV- I mean its all good when you have a really nice team, but when you have the Rainbow, plus all the other talent on your team, then again, I think that pressure comes from more than the bike race….
Now look at HTC and Saxo- No hype, had time to gel, super calm, letting races come to them (literally) and critically- Calm hands at the tiller with strong legs on the pedals. okay, okay, I know that there are exceptions (Quickstep should have enough experience to know that they should have let Chava work on Sunday) but in general, my theory is that new teams will not be as successful as they could be, simply because they are new…
What do you guys think?
Leopard are interesting certainly, and seem to have some similarities to Sky
In that they both are all head / no trousers. By that I mean each is formed around a small group of superstars. What they seem to lack is the hard core of domestiques to control a race and set it up for the leader.
To me, the big difference for Fabu this year was that he didnt have the Saxo hammerheads on the front for 100km whittling the bunch down to a small handful. Thus, when he made his jump, there was still plenty of power in the peloton to bring him back. I mean, this was RVV, and BMC could put SEVEN riders on the front? Not last year, they couldnt, because Saxo had hammered them loose. Leopard, and indeed Sky, dont have the domestique firepower to do that
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
IMO there are no superstars on Sky.
To me they (the classic team) are a bunch of good but not great riders (Flecha, Thomas, EBH, Stannard) who seem to be working well together. Some of their domestiques may be a bit past their peak (Arvesen, I’m looking at you), but I don’t really see the similarity with Leopard. I think Leopard has a vastly superior GT team to Sky, and on/in the cobbles/classics they have THE sustained power superstar of the peloton.
I wonder on Leopard
In the Classics, they have Cance, perhaps stuey as a domestique, and nothing serious beyond that (which we saw when there were no LTs in to support Cance)
In the TdF, they have two Schlecks, and then from a domestique basis they are looking thin. Cance does a job, but he is only of medium use on the mountains, stuey is finished as a mountain domestique, Jens! is on record last year saying he cant do it every day. Who else is there? To me, the only way AS will get sufficient support is if they stop effing around and decide that Frank is a domestique not a GC rider. Otherwise, there wont be enough helpers to protect
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
Memory loss?
But I am not sure Montfort is much help in the hills
but fuglsang is def
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
But I am not sure Montfort is much help in the hills
Good Monfort is. He’s not going to out-climb Contador any day soon, but he’s a decent enough domestique to have in your team. Like a less HTFU Jens! Got 11th in the 2007 Vuelta, if that’s any indication.
I like tinkering with the boys.
- majope
Like Larsson, give or take
He was on Saxo Bank’s TdF team two years ago (didn’t do too much of anything tho, except for the time trials).
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Apr 5, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
There really isn't much change from the Riis TdF setup.
Now:
A Schleck
F Schleck
Voigt
Cancellara
Fuglsang
O’Grady
new/Lund
new/Monfort
new/Posthuma
At Riis:
same first six plus
C A Sorensen
N Sorensen
Breschel
So Montfort replaces CAS, Posthuma goes in instead of N Sorensen and Lund takes Breschel place.
If this is what Leo comes to TdF with, it looks very similar in power imo.
which is in some ways waht i mean
he is minus the two Sorensens who are big losses
Stuey and Jens! are very close to the end.
I forgot Foogs, but it looks like his mountain help will be Frank plus Foogs… with maybe cameos from Cance plus Jens! if he is lucky
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
I don't seem to remember AS being in any trouble because of lack of teammates last year
And I think his team is just as strong this year.
Contador used his team to wear everyone down. It may have isolated AS, but it didn’t put him in distress. AS never had to chase an Astana up for the road for example except for Contador.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
no - but when he dropped a chain he had eff all help and Vino sitting on his wheel
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
"All Head, No Trousers"
I love it! Around here (Amarillo, Texas) its “Big Hat, No Cattle”!!!
Do not interfere in the affairs of Dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup!
Start up problems.
Like anything in life, starting is tough. However I do believe the three cases (Sky, Garmin and Leo) are different. Unlike Sky, Garmin was not a new team coming into 2011. In fact most of the core of the team has been in place for some time, so I don’t think we can blame the teams issues on the “everything is new” factor. Likewise I don’t think we can compare the Leo’s situation to that of Sky (2010). Effectively a large group of the team’s core staff and riders simply comes from Riis and hence they don’t really need to learn how to work together much. Imo, Garmin’s problems stems from having too many cooks in the kicthen at the same time. Once they shed a couple of people, the team will likely work better. At this point I would not say Leo has underperformed. Their big stars (Cancellara and the Schlecks) seems to be performing relatively well against expectations. The rest of the team really belongs to a rather large soup of 2nd tier riders (across all teams), riders who can perhaps all win on a lucky day in smaller races or stages.
I don't think Garmin has too many cooks in the kitchen
I just think at this point right now, the chefs are making really shitty food. Haussler’s form is dreadful, and that is mainly to blame for the team’s poor spring. Both Thor and Farrar are who they are. Tyler competes in bunch sprints and Thor keeps the powder dry until Paris Roubaix. Haussler has been the major disappointment, missing the selection in both MSR and Flanders, two races he has gotten second place at.
Other major disappointments are the domestiques. I know Klier looks great on BTP and every rider raves about his knowledge, but it seems he or Vaughters have the team taking responsibility early in the race, and then fizzling for the finale.
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
You don't think maybe they need a new recipe?
I kinda find the whole “we’ll see what happens on the road” bit irritating, but what the fuck do I know? I just wanted to ask something about recipes.
by JustJoshinYa on Apr 5, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the opportunistic approach works well if the team is truly an underdog
with no clear captains or ego’s, but when a team moves up the foodchain, I think that model becomes very hard to execute on the road.
Fair points
I keep thinking of the Italian National team in recent years at the worlds, never really got it together like they should until Ballerini named a man to ride for.
You could be right, but Haussler's form could also be linked to
not being motivated correctly. My point is that having three big ego’s on the same team with very similar objectives can be very hard to manage.
he's a pro. if he needs to be motivated correctly to win a monument, he should be flipping burgers
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
Nick Nuyens didn't join the Big Mac shop.
He switched teams and now performs. I think part of the problem at Garmin is perhaps motivation.
i agree to a certain extent that riders need certain managers / motivation
I just think everyone is lining up to pile on JV, PVP and management for mishandling the merger and team, when the lack of performance falls on the individual riders in this case. I don’t think it has to do with management, egos, leaders, tactics, etc. It has to do with riders on really bad form.
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
I am not piling on JV, instead I am simply saying that
managing three ego’s targeting similar races will cause problems for any manager. The primary reason why Breschel left Saxo Bank last year, was because he felt he was sitting in Cancellara shadow all the time. You say riders form are to blame for Garmin’s issues, I say its an issue with team imbalance. We have to agree to disagree.
Is that ego?
Or more like employment opportunity? He left a place where his job was support for a place where his job was to win. You can assign psychological labels to it but it just seems so much simpler to me.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Apr 5, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Not saying Breschel was driven by ego. I am saying that
managing three captains targeting similar races will be a challenge.
Talent → winning → leadership → usually big ego.
respectfully disagree
Consider: omitting Hesjedal, Vandevelde, and Wiggins, Vaughters’ record in managing riders is questionable.
People will say, “well what about Farrar?” And, partly just to be ornery, I’ll respond, “Yeah, WHAT about Farrar?” How many green jerseys had Zabel won by Farrar’s age?
(And, let me be clear: I think Farrar is a great guy with good sense, but when crunch-time has come, more often than not, he’s not delivered. Part of that is his fault (like when he lost Dean’s wheel in the final turn in Paris a couple of years ago). But another part of that fault has to do with poorly executed strategy on the part of the team.
Now, to extend the blame-game: remember that the ‘unhappy camper’ issues with Cervelo pre-date the merger: Hushovd and Sastre were sniping at each other during the tour last year, and Haussler expressed some discord towards both of the other two. Add those unresolved problems to a team that ditched a few of its most reliable riders to make room for the high-exposure names, and you have a really difficult situation to manage.
That is definitely the negative case
being mischevious, and mistranslating…
“omitting three guys who were nobodies which he turned into serious Grand tour racers, three years in a row…”
“producing a sprinter who, absent the genius that is Cav, would have swept up pretty much everything going”
“guy who built a team from nothing into a super power, in about five years flat”
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
Also
It was a pretty hard hand they have been given. It all happened very late in the day, I’m not sure Garmin was 100% happy with the forced marriage, and I bet a lot of the riders were not either
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
As JV says
it fell in their lap. They aren’t Quick Step, with a 20 year history in the classics. They’re trying to make the leap, having started out as a small American team a few years ago. I think they’re more in the mode of taking all the help they can get to make this leap, rather than being a top team and having multiple options to choose from, more carefully.
IOW, I got a strong sense from them that this would be a learning experience for the entire organization.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Apr 5, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't underestimate
How much of a loss Johan and Maaskant are. I wonder if HH overtrained. He looked better in Oman than he does now. Good point about Klier, all the knowledge in the world isn’t much help once the race has gone up the road.
"It's really who can just push the biggest gear the fastest and the hardest, and I want to be that guy" - GHH
"HH Overtrained"
“looked better in Oman”
Classic “KIng of January” syndrome usually found in cat4 racers.
Appears in Haussler because? Maybe because he was trying too hard to establish position within team?
Haussler
To me, Haussler sounded really desperate to have a good season this year after last year’s disaster. LIke, he needed a result any result. I could easily see that mentality leading to overtraining. He also missed a good chunk of the season last year. Coming off that as a rider who’s still relatively young, well, I think it’s not a hard to see how he might just plain get it wrong – the form, the race feel, all the things that go into winning bike races. I don’t know how much the team or management have to do with that, honestly. I did think it was interesting in the BTP viddy, that he was off training in the mountains solo while the rest of the team trained together. Hmm, wonder if he did overcook it, really.
to be mean
that’s what they said last year
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
but last year he was injured no?
so yeah they would naturally. Things don’t always work according to plan. Also, not easy to make that last step up.
I wouldn't be surprised if he overtrained, after missing one of his prime years, and i don't think its anything more than that
Some guys want to get results but get too excited, too early. (see Tony Martin…best recent case of this)
I doubt its anything more than that (no power struggle or trying to be top dog or whatnot since he works best as the darkhorse)
Maybe he isnt all he is cracked up to be?
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
No - but they are also not top rank
no big wins
very few occassions he “drives” a race
To me he is Chava to Thors tommeke – if that
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
count me as one of those
who thinks he is incredibly talented. Just trying to put it together. Still very young.
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Apr 5, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Dunno
But people always seem to imply he has right to be in the debate over leadership with Garmin. This baffles me, as tylar is a faster sprinter and Thor is a better classics rider
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
Outside view versus internal.
The question is: How does Haussler see himself? I think he sees himself as a classic captain.
Because he deserves it...doesn't mean it is the best way for him to succeed. Tyler is only faster when he gets a proper lead-out
Haussler, after attacking in the last 5km, beat Farrar in the sprint for second in the Omloop. So you can’t say he is always the fastest sprinter.
This year, Haussler was a higher place than Hushovd at Omloop, San Remo and E3. And only a negligible difference in placing at Flanders. In ‘09, they both had high places with Hushovd really only standing out at Roubaix because asserted his presence. So you can’t bluntly say Hushovd is the better classics rider because he is wearing some rainbow stripes (a race Haussler wasn’t healthy enough to participate in but sure as hell would have been in the finale, if healthy)
I like JV's theory
HH lost too many race miles last year, this year is a rebuilding year.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
good
"I’m hoping for the Mortirolo-Gavia combination, then we can ride down to Bormio for ice cream." Emma Pooley on the Giro Donne
+1
"It's really who can just push the biggest gear the fastest and the hardest, and I want to be that guy" - GHH
Johan: "Knee pain or no knee pain, I'm riding.
On the cobbles, everything hurts anyway."
I like tinkering with the boys.
- majope
yeah, stronger than in recent years, if I remember right, not sure about placing, I just mean that he was strong as a bull in the finale. Looking forward to seeing what he can do at P-R.
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Apr 5, 2011 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions
True, but it's not an easy race if you don't know it
and I don’t know if his DS will be able to inform him well enough too
O/T
Finally remembered to pick up Omer at the store – it’s not half bad. Poured it completely wrong though – I figured my Kriek glass (a tall, tulip shaped one) resembled the Omer glass most closely, but it didn’t quite work.
I like tinkering with the boys.
- majope
it never does,
does it?
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Apr 5, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Bah!
What else do they have to do??
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Apr 5, 2011 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Not be an Italian team at a race with a limited number of invites for ProTeams
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
re: Gilbert:
this will sound like blasphemy, but I think that with the dry, warm conditions, and the last hill so far from the end, the race just wasn’t hard enough for him. Don’t get me wrong, I know Flanders is plenty hard. It just seems to me that he generally wins when one of two things happen: 1. it’s an uphill finish, or finish right after a climb (e.g. Amstel Gold, Strade Bianche); 2. there’s enough attrition in the race that he arrives at the final sprint with only 1 or 2 others, or alone (Lombardia, Paris-Tours). I think he’ll be more likely to win Flanders if the conditions happen to be brutal.
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
Yea it's kind of blasphemy.
Flanders is plenty hard, it just may be that it’s not suited to Gilbert’s skills for winning is probably a better way to put it. He can certainly power away on the climbs, but he can’t chrono away after.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Yeah, but I’m more trying to speak about this particular edition of Flanders. Maybe “hard” is the wrong word, I mean that a rainier, windier, colder edition of Flanders would suit him more, imho, seems to me this would favour getting to the line with 1 or 2 other guys rather than with 10 or however many there were – things just get broken up all the more in tougher conditions. On Sunday there were too many riders left to come together after the Bosberg.
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Apr 5, 2011 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Was it Lombardia that was so freakin miserable last year that he won.
He excels in the worst weather.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
yeah, I think something like a third of the field finished that day.
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Apr 5, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe something to this . . .
and, given the size of the group that was able to hang on in the final of Flanders this year, I’d say that that’s evidence that Cancellara’s attack wasn’t as “super-human” as those of last year.
It was definitely a slow, "easy" race
How the heck else does a team manage to get 7 guys on the front with just 30km to go?
Warning... not everything I say should be taken entirely seriously
"That changes next week."
That quote could apply to more than just Thor this coming Sunday.
BMC has been great since the start this year, and they are just getting better. I hope they keep it up at P-R. GH is looking better than last year, I just hope he’s on a good day Sunday.
Don’t worry about Nuyens, I am having him taken out this week. (true to my word)
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
It was so exciting to see Hincapie in the finale eh?
I think a few of us were jumping up and down in our homes. Chris, you, me and Katiek for sure.
Really?
I thought the change was most likely to isolate team leaders. While I’d take Cance as the favorite of a group with all leaders and no domestiques, it’s more likely that Cance would lose his teammates and teams like Garmin, Sky and QuickStep would keep some of their’s
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Jeremy Hunt FTW
Mr. Hunt testing his new P-R bike on the cobbles… http://yfrog.com/gyjccilj
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
I did notice your lack of Hincapie ranking for RVV and chalked it up to not wanting to
bring any attention to him. Sort of like how I did not put him on my VDS team to keep him free from the team zoe injury syndrome.
dude rode a hell of a race
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Apr 5, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Hincapie has what it takes to be an amazing d.s.
if he wants to be.
He might never have been able to transform reading the right move (or making it) into winning a monument. (Sorry, GW, especially the Wednesday versions) is not a major win for me).
But, after several years of bashing his tactical acumen because he didn’t KNOW that attacking the Muur in 2002 was gonna be his only chance to win that race, I’ve come around to recognizing that Hincapie has solid tactical sense. Although he might work too much in a break once it gets away to win, he’s done pretty well in figuring out which move is the right one.
Is Erik Dekker an amazing DS?
Having an amazing ability to get into the right break is one very minor indicator of good DS potential.
seriously.
Getting into the right break is not really rocket science for a decent bike racer. Takes more than that to run a team on the road well. Me, I’m not convinced Hinky is a dude for the cars, but could be wrong.
I can't see GH in a car...
won’t happen.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
I think
mentally I would have had him in the 21-25 set had I done one. But with Ballan and GvA looking good I couldn’t bring myself to add a third BMC before.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Apr 5, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Nobody is upset that Nuyens was invisible until the final km, because winning justifies the means.
He spent a lot of the races making it back to the front, hence why he wasn’t there. There was something wrong with his shoes, he hit a pole on De Oude Kwaremont and had to fight back to the peloton, he got caught behind the big crash and had to fight back to the peloton (chase lead by Volder).
I like tinkering with the boys.
- majope
On the re-watch last night, I noticed him quite a bit actually. Toward the end, he was always at the front.
And, he attacked in the final Ks as well.
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
Yes, all this was before Stijn dragged P2 back
Don’t remember exactly when that was. Midway into TV time maybe?
I like tinkering with the boys.
- majope
And anyway, as Joe Lindsey wrote
Nick Nuyens didn’t do hardly a lick of "work" either and came out the winner. (Note: I put work in quotes because, at almost 260km, there is no way to ride Flanders easy. Nuyens was as deserving of the win as any in the front group.)
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Apr 5, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
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