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ATOC Stage 1 CancelWatch: Snow Narrows Options for Sunday

Toc-main_mediumThere is much discussion on the tweets about the possibility of the Amgen Tour of California having to deal with a snowstorm as the backdrop of its curtain-raising stage, a ride from South Lake Tahoe to the Northstar ski resort. As far as I can tell, there's a big low pressure parked over the Gulf of Alaska that is expected to start pounding the Northwest with rain later in the day Saturday. Given its size, I am assuming this is the same system which is expected to bring snow into the Lake Tahoe area Saturday evening. The Tahoe forecast calls for temps up to the low 40s on Sunday, so maybe there's a scenario where wet snow falls but is cleared off the roads in time for the race. Another scenario is where snow falls and stays there. Also, they're calling for winds that would make the North Sea blush.

Either way, what would be a gorgeous stage in a non-La Nina year is turning into a problem for the race organizers. They've told the media that they're considering all options, but seriously, what would those be? To escape the snow, you need to get down to lower elevations. Within the lakeshed the only lower elevations are under water, and I don't see the riders' union buying off on that. Remember, those Tirreno-Adriatico posters are not actual photographs. For warmer environs they'd need to move the race pretty far away. Like, Carson City, where it would be a good 10 degrees warmer and possibly dry. Or the Sacramento Valley, where the race is due to arrive Monday. Logistically this "option" sounds like pure fantasy, but tomorrow the race is holding its big press conference, so maybe they'll let us know if "all options" include anything more than "fuck it, let's race" and "canceled."

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two words:

HTFU

"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."

by ant1 on May 12, 2011 7:02 PM EDT reply actions  

nice math

If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH

by Chris Fontecchio on May 12, 2011 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

i'm an accountant for a reason

"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."

by ant1 on May 12, 2011 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

since when is "the" a word anyway...

and honestly, the “you” is really implied…

Reminds me of that Seinfeld episode when they were going out of town to the Amish country and the conversation went something like:
…it’s a whole weekend…
…minus sleep, it’s like a day and a half…
…minus the drive, it’s like one day…
…minus meals, it’s like 4 hours… (or something like that)

Wait, what were we talking about? Oh yeah, Ant1 can’t count…

by JustJoshinYa on May 12, 2011 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tahoe City, CA 35 degrees (about 2 degrees Celsius) is the forecast high for Sunday.

National Weather Service 1-3 inches of snow. Thor FTW.

Sign seen at entrance of local bike shop, " \o/ spoken here.". - Okay, I made it up, but wouldn't that be cool?

by flying dog on May 12, 2011 7:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Now the prediction is a high of 32, or 0 (your choice) degrees.

Sign seen at entrance of local bike shop, " \o/ spoken here.". - Okay, I made it up, but wouldn't that be cool?

by flying dog on May 13, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well,us spectators are stuck too.

We have none refundable reservations for the weekend so we are digging out the ski gear to watch the race in,If it goes on.
I vote they just hang out at the village with us fans signing autographs and drinking cappuccinos.
It could be dramatic if they do race.
As long as they are safe,after the other day,that is the most important thing.Life can’t be risk free but no need to be stupid.
And agin the weather man may call it wrong,we can hope.

by Dustbunny8 on May 12, 2011 7:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Your plan sounds best...

Crossing fingers you get to see some racing

by Sarah Connolly on May 13, 2011 6:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

It was 29 degrees yesterday morning with sunshine so they better leave the Spanish and Italians at home : )
I think we can officially start referring to the TOC Curse,we can’t get a break here.I hope it pans out,it will be lovely to watch it it does.

by Dustbunny8 on May 12, 2011 7:59 PM EDT reply actions  

why leave the spanish and italians home? this stage is going up and down mountains, right? home conditions for those boys.

"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind

by umwolverine on May 12, 2011 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

38 and snowing may not be much to their liking though!I just worry about ice on the roadway,hope the sun comes out.

by Dustbunny8 on May 12, 2011 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gibo

Would have been fine. Good sturdy Trentino. Not so sure about those fair-weather Tuscans though.

If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH

by Chris Fontecchio on May 12, 2011 11:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

ha! semi-regular training conditions.

"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind

by umwolverine on May 13, 2011 6:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hoping they get just enough bad weather to make it epic...

But not enough to cancel it. That would be a real shame since this edition of the ToC is a bit short on really sweet scenic stages, and this one was certainly going to be that.

Granted, in light of the Giro tragedy they have to be careful.

What else can I say? I'm really happy. --Vincenzo Nibali

by tgartner on May 12, 2011 8:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Bah snow!

This La Niña thing is sucking. Snow at the wrong times and no surf. Fuck.

by Jen See on May 12, 2011 8:53 PM EDT reply actions  

i bet it's the no surf part

although she does have some skin in the ToC game this year.

"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."

by ant1 on May 12, 2011 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

BAh!

I pay stupid money to live near surf. What? It’s flat? It’s flat again?

Le sigh.

Well, at least it can’t get any worse.

Also, in general, I am not a fan of snow. And, I do fly to Tahoe on Saturday, so you know…

by Jen See on May 12, 2011 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

don't forget the crayons

and, when nothing seems to go your way in may, remember that we’ll always have il giro.

"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."

by ant1 on May 12, 2011 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

A Typhoon just blew past Taiwan . . . .

 . . . . and the surf is rockin’ on the south tip.

No snow in the mountains either.

What would Deming do? (+8:00 GMT)

by Ryan_Liles on May 12, 2011 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

And

Carbon seatposts growing on trees.

If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH

by Chris Fontecchio on May 12, 2011 11:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Happy salmon

That’s what I am falling back on. Our snowpack is at it’s highest level for the year now, in fucking May. I guess I can water my lawn all summer, if it’s not still snowing that is.

If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH

by Chris Fontecchio on May 12, 2011 11:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Yes!

And apparently, there’ve been steelhead in a few of the streams here. Which, is good.

Also, two years ago in May, the surf was awesome, but you know, the place was burning down. That was inconvenient. So, I’ll take flat surf, no fire, and nice wildflowers.

by Jen See on May 13, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

so

how does the Pacific decadal oscillation affect surf? Apparently we’re in a cool cycle, although cool + el nino is not the same as cool + la nina.

If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH

by Chris Fontecchio on May 13, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol

It depends. With El Niño, there’s lots of storms coming straight in from the Pacific and they tend to come in close. You get a lot of surf, but lots of times it’s too messed up to ride. La Niña warm, we got less surf, but at times, it was like unreal conditions. The swells were further away, so cleaner, and the high pressure parked on the coast made for ooh là là, so good. This winter, the storms dropped straight down from well, wherever they come from and didnt’ come in off the Pacific. That’s bad. Pretty much dormant when that happens. We need gales of various sizes and shape in the North Pacific, basically. Or, big ass storms over near Japan and the date line.

by Jen See on May 13, 2011 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

I never understood why they go from the north to the south

Even in the beginning of the race, wouldn’t you want the later stages in the north?

by Chief42 on May 12, 2011 10:35 PM EDT reply actions  

One week?

Makes no diff. Also latitude is harmless; altitude is everything.

If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH

by Chris Fontecchio on May 12, 2011 11:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I had camping reservations at teh premiere campground in Tahoe ON the Stage 1 course-

Fallen Leaf Campground. Its almost impossible to get reservations there. I cancelled them on Monday. Sadface. I don’t do snow camping. Got charged $10.00 to cancel.

Oh yeah, you all know that CalTrans closed Highway 50 west of Tahoe yesterday for road work? So that leaves everyone coming from the west (99.9% of spectators) attempting to go up I-80.

What a mess! Really sad sadface.

by ZoeRochelle on May 12, 2011 10:38 PM EDT reply actions  

I hope this is a nice learning experience for the ToC organizers.

The high sierra mountains are rarely consistently pleasant this time of year.
Especially from Tahoe north.

Oh sure, there are always a good year here and there, but if they really wanted to get into the high mountains of California, they better think about pushing this race out to July, or later in order to ensure stable conditions.

Personally, I’m totally happy if the race just stuck to their original format and just enhanced it instead of trying to become something it really never can be.

Just let the Giro take the climbers, and the ToC can focus on the sprinters and classics guys.
That seems like the best formula for success.

What would Deming do? (+8:00 GMT)

by Ryan_Liles on May 12, 2011 11:10 PM EDT reply actions  

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