So we have had a cobbled classics season, a slew of week long stage races, one third of the Grand Tours (some Shit Small Race in Italy), the all important Tour of California. Yet here we are and still some of the sports biggest lights, and costliest VDS riders have kept their powder dry. Some of them have kept their powder very, very dry. If you own one of these riders you probably know who they are.
So lets see if any of these current boat anchors are in with a shot of paying off during TdF pointsalanche. As always I will be using This System to assess rider values with 55 being the points per point pay off level.
Riders in need of Tour Loving on the flip.
Thor Hushovd with a current Lowest overall value of -1010 following his TdS stage win, third in a stage of the ToC, and 8th at PR, Thor is really struggling to produce VDS Value. Thor needs a strong TdF, Vuelta, and Worlds to have any hope of returning positive or close to positive points. If Thor is the Garmin Leader he could possibly pull in 400-500 points in the Maillot Vert competition and stage placing points. So those owning Thor are hoping for his best Green run in a few years.
Luis Leon Sanchez with a grand total of Zero VDS points has the same Rider Value as Riccardo Ricco -880. The sad thing is that with Luisle pulling Super domestique duties the only points I see him getting are in the Tour TTT. As Rabobank have a Legit shot at placing in the points there Luisle could end up getting five to ten points out of the Tour. He may get a free hand and some left over tour form at San Seb, but since he will likely be super domestique to Bobo at the Vuelta as well that's it. He may, with a repeat at San Seb, get 300 points for the season. Oh well at least even with the Tour TTT points he will at least be a better pick than Ricco.
Andy Schleck, currently sitting at -840 points. With a dominating Tour including a couple of stage wins and placings he could rack up over a thousand points. Odd are pretty good that Andy will pay off coming out of the Tour. Unfortunately for those 83 DS's who invested in him he only got one top ten in the Ardennes, his podium at LBL. As Andy only really seems to try at all during Ardennes week and the Tour he won't reach his maximum points potential. Since those DS's were also paying a TdF Favourites penalty for Andy I don't think he will actually do anything more than Payoff and have a slight positive value. He could, however, surprise us all and actually try to win emilia and Lombardia, but I doubt it.
Mark Cavendish, having racked up a whopping 16 more points than Andy is sitting at -824. The Manx Missile is the Green Jersey Fave again, 3-6 stage wins with days in Green and final points could net him 500-600 points. He will also likely rack up some points at the Vuelta, and is definitely going to the Worlds with ambition. He may also finally hit up Paris Tours since there is no Tour of Missouri to distract him this year. Mark should pay off and could net a positive score in the 400-600 point range by years end. So while Mark is unlikely to payoff by Tours end the season is long and he has many more points available to pick up. Of those at the bottom he will likely finish with the highest positive total.
Richie Porte at -805 was horribly over priced and is unlikely to come close to paying off.
Edvald Boasson Hagen at -790 Eddy Boss is looking more like a super talented flash in the pan every year. He seems to have all the tools in a very fragile case. The question is what can he do to get points, the Tour will be all in for Wiggo. After that, what ,maybe Plouay and some SSR's. 179 Ds's thought this would be his year, well, maybe next year will be his year.
Zeke, the non doping doper, no points and who knows what he will do this year. At least only four DS's are mourning his failure this year. -770 and holding. The Tour will not change this.
Tyler Farrar -746. This is a tough one, lets hope that Tyler can get his head back in the racing after losing his dear friend. Tyler is so talented and just needs a little fortune to get out from behind Cavs huge shadow. I don't know if he will have the Form or the Mentality needed to have a great Tour. He is just a small step from being the best at what he does. This could be his year if he is at the Top of his Game, Cav does not seem to be at the top of his. Unfortunately for those of us hoping to see Tyler dethrone Cav, Tyler does not seem to be at the top of his. As I see it if Tyler is not at the Top of his Game, Cav will clean up a the Tour. Tyler has seemed to be the only one consistently pushing Cav. This game is about Legs and Head and I don't know if Tyler will have enough of both to have a great rest of this year.
Michael Rogers -660, another doughnut. 27 people believed enough in this Aussie to pay a dozen points for him. After looking rejuvenated last year at HTC his transition to Sky and a secondary leadership position has not served him well. I don't actually recall seeing him at a race this year. He may have been at some I have watched but If he was there he was invisible. The points seem to confirm this. With Sky being all in for Wiggo at the Tour he won't get points there.
Matti Breschel -660 and another doughnut. Knee surgery in the spring for a Cobbled Classics rider which had followed on knee surgery in the fall. That is the sort of thing that leads to big fat doughnuts. Unless he racks up something at the Worlds he won't likely score points, the Tour is all in for Gesink and no doubt about that. Breschel needs to get something out of the SSR's he will do on the way to the Worlds or he will get nothing out of the whole year.
Danilo DiLuca should have been a freebie for us just like he is for Katusha. 20 points for the season and probably about as much as this aging doper can hope for this year. Holding steady at -660.
Ivan Basso - 595 has scored 285 with a win in Lugano, and top ten overall at TA and Catalunya. He is all in for the tour and will need to get a podium and some stage placings to get into positive numbers. I don't see him doing this. The field is packed this year. Andy, Bobo, Evans, Sam San, Wiggo, VDB, even Leipheimer is looking stronger than Basso at the moment. but if he can top ten and maybe get some stage placing points he may get close to even. That form hampering training accident did not do our aging hero any favours. Things you can shake off in you twenties are not so easy to shake off at 33.
Ryder Hesjedal -530. Disappointing Adrdennes campaign without a top ten that week. May be able to break even with a repeat of last years Tour. I hope that Ryder can represent Canada well and get on the podium with strong stage finishes. That will pay him off, however a placing in the 5-8 range is more likely, that and some stage placings could still pay him off, just not as well.
Tom Boonen -520, Well the last time he actually tried at the Tour he won the Green Jersey. That will not be the case this year. Tombo will be unlikely to pick up a couple of hundred points this year. The sprinting field is deeper and Tombo is just not a sprinter any more. No Tour love for Tombo.
Andre Griepel -475 for the Gorrilla, he can hope for stage placings and Green Jersey Placing points. 200-300 points maybe. The Vuelta and the Worlds remain hopes for him as well.
Nicholas Roche -440. Even with his crash last week here's hoping the young Roche can land in the top ten and maybe get to see the light of day with some other results later this year.