Tour de France: 2011 Yellow Jersey Preview
by John.. on Jun 21, 2011 11:11 AM EDT
Email
Print
This is a guide for the General Classification (GC) contenders of the 2011 Tour de France. For most of the riders on this list, the GC battle at the Tour is the primary goal for the season. These riders have made tremendous sacrifices in an effort for a high finish at the Tour. In addition to the riders, results at the Tour play a large part in determine the success or failure of a team’s season.
While there are two big favorites, it is likely to be more than just a two person race this year. Contador is coming off of a strenuous Giro and Andy Schleck has displayed less than stellar form in his warm up races for the Tour. Cadel Evans, Robert Gesink, Alexander Vinokourov, Sammy Sanchez and others should make for a great race.
The Tour route this year only has 41 km of individual time trials which may favor the climbers. Teams chasing the points classification will have to put more emphasis on the intermediate sprints this year as they have increased in points. This might make it difficult for GC riders on teams such as Garmin and HTC to get much support. Saxo Bank, Leopard-Trek, Astana, Rabobank, Sky, and others will likely make their GC riders the primary focus of the Tour.
I included a numerical value for easier comparison for their strengths and weaknesses. I did not total them as I’m not sure they are worth equal weight. Climbing is probably more important than any of the other traits this year. I also added a preparation score to try to balance out Contador’s fatigue from the Giro with the more ideal build up of the other riders.
The riders are roughly listed in the order of how I see them as favorites, not how I see them finishing at the end of the Tour. Personally, if I were betting, my money would be on Andy Schleck as I don’t see Contador completing the double, but Contador has to be the favorite.
Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank) Age: 28.
Contador is the defending Tour champion and is coming off a win at the Giro. He has won the last 6 grand tours he has entered which includes wins in all three grand tours. In addition to his win at the Giro, this year Contador won the Vuelta de Murcia and the Volta Catalunya.
Why he could win: Contador will win because he doesn’t lose grand tours. His string of 6 straight grand tours is amazing. He has proven to be one of the best grand tour riders in history. He may be the best climber in the world and probably in the top 5 in time trials.
Why he could lose: Contador is coming off of a strenuous Giro. The Giro/Tour double has not been done since 1998 when Marco Pantani won both. While Contador is a tremendous talent, he is still human and will have to recover from the Giro. The normal approach to the tour is to complete a warm up race such as the Tour de Suisse or the Criterium du Dauphine. Riders who use the Giro as preparation for the Tour normally do not try to win the Giro and may only produce a max effort on a few specific stages. It remains to be seen if a rider, even one as gifted as Contador, can recover from winning a difficult grand tour in time to win a second grand tour a month later.
Team Support: Contador can count on complete support from his team as he will be the only leader. When Contador signed with Saxo Bank he brought over Benjamin Noval, Daniel Navarro, and Jesus Hernandez with him. Other notable support riders might include Chis Anker Sorensen and Richie Porte. Several of these riders provided Contador support at the Giro, so if they are on the Tour team, fatigue might be a factor for them as well.
Climbing: 10
Time Trialing: 8.5
Team: 8
Experience: 10
Preparation: 4
Andy Schleck (Leopard-Trek) Age: 26.
Schleck is seen as the upcoming talent to challenge Contador. Schleck was second to Contador last year by only 39 seconds and was second to Contador in the 2009 Tour. He best performance this year was third in Liege-Baston-Liege. Other notable performances this year include 12th at the Tour of the Basque Country, 8th in California, and winning the Mountains Classification at the Tour de Suisse.
Why he could win: Andy improves every year and seems to close the gap to Contador. With Contador possibly being fatigued after a difficult Giro and the gap the previous year being only 39 seconds, it is possibly that Andy Schleck has improved enough to beat Contador.
Why he could lose: It is hard to call not beating Contador losing, but Schleck is yet to show he has the form to beat Contador. His performances in his lead up races (California and Tour de Suisse) were less than stellar. He may not have been going all out, but I thought he would perform better especially in the time trials. Its hard to tell what form he has, but if he doesn’t substantially improve before the key stages of the tour, he won’t win.
Team Support: Andy and his brother Frank who are two of the best climbers in the pro peloton. On the flatter stages and in the team time trial he will have the best time trial rider in Fabian Cancellara. Maxime Monfort, Jacob Fuglsang, Jens Voigt, and Linus Gerdemann make for powerful support. This will be one of the strongest teams in the Tour.
Climbing: 10
Time Trialing: 7
Team: 10
Experience: 8.5
Preparation: 8
Sammy Sanchez (Euskatel) Age: 33.
Sanchez finished 4th at the Tour last year after finishing 2nd in the Vuelta in 2009 and 3rd at the Vuelta in 2007. He has an impressive total of 6 top ten finishes in grand tours and won the Olympic Road Race in 2008. This year Sanchez finished 5th in Paris-Nice, 6th in the Tour of the Basque Country, and 17th at the Dauphine.
Why he will win: Sanchez is a consistent grand tour performer beginning with a 10th place finish in 2005 at the Vuelta. Sanchez is among the better climbers on a team that is full of great climbers. He showed his climbing credentials this year by wining the queen stage of the Tour of the Basque Country. What sets him apart from other Spanish climbers is his ability to time trial as well. Sanchez will not be confused with Cancellara as he finished 40th in the stage 19 Time Trial at the Tour last year, but he is capable of turning in a good time trial as he finished in the top 20 in time trials this year at Paris-Nice, Criterium International, and Tour of the Basque Country. Sanchez can also gain time on long downhill sections when needed.
Why he will lose: Like other climbers in the Tour, Sanchez needs to improve his time trialing ability if he is going to win the Tour. While Euskatel is known for its great climbers, it is not known for its ability in the Team Time Trial. Sanchez may lose ground in the TTT to other climbers on teams with better time trial support like Leopard-Trek and Rabbobank.
Team Support: Sanchez is no doubt the captain of the team. If you threw a dart at a photo of the Euskatel team, you would no doubt hit a strong climber. It is what they do. Carrots roll uphill. Egoi Martinez is an experienced rider who will be on of the main support riders for Sanchez who will try to limit his loses in the team time trial to stay close to the other Tour contenders.
Climbing: 9
Time Trialing: 7
Team: 7.5
Experience: 8
Preparation: 8
Ivan Basso (Liquigas) Age: 34.
Basso finished 3rd in the Tour in 2004, 2nd in 2005, and won the Giro in 2006 prior to his suspension for a doping related offense. Last year Basso won the Giro and finished 32nd in the Tour. This year he won the GP di Lugano in February followed by a 4th place finish in Tirreno-Adriatico, 31st in Romandie and 26th at the Dauphine.
Why he could win: Basso has the talent and experience to win a grand tour as he proved last year in the Giro. He doesn’t appear to be the extraterrestrial he was prior to his suspension, but he has been solid in grand tours. Basso is focusing his efforts this year on a strong performance in the Tour and did not ride the Giro. He will likely have a strong team to support him in the Team Time Trial.
Why he could lose: Basso lacks a strong time trialing ability. There are fewer time trial kilometers in this year’s Tour than in the past, but he still cannot afford to lose minutes in a time trial to Contador, Evans, and other likely rivals.
Team Support: Liquigas is providing Basso with the full team support for his bid for the Tour. Sylwester Szymd, Vincenzo Nibali, and others will provide strong support in the mountains. Liquigas finished second in the team time trail at the Giro which bodes well for their showing at the tour. The only question in team support is if their key riders are well rested from a difficult Giro.
Climbing: 9
Time Trialing: 7
Team: 8
Experience: 9
Preparation: 8
Cadel Evans (BMC) Age: 34.
Cadel finished a disappointing 26th in the Tour last year after riding to a 5th place finish in the Giro. More of a testament to how difficult the Giro-Tour double is than to Evans’ ability. Evans has twice finished second in the Tour in 2007 and 2008. He has several other top finishes in grand tours although the top step has eluded him so far. He has shown some excellent form so for this year winning Romandie and Tirreno-Adriatico. He placed second in the Dauphine, one of the key warm up races to the tour.
Why he could win: Evans can time trial and climb which are the attributes needed to be a grand tour rider. He has the experience and this year has shown great form. Evans appears to be more comfortable at BMC than he did at Lotto.
Why he could lose: Evans has not performed well at the Tour the past two years. While he has done well in both the Giro and the Vuelta in recent years, but the Tour has presented some problems finishing 26th and 30th in the last two years.
Team Support: BMC has improved their team, but they do not appear as strong as some of the other major contenders. George Hincapie has more experience at the tour and being on a winning team than any other current rider which will help. Amael Moinard, Steve Morabito, and Brent Bookwalter may be able to provide some support on the climbs. BMC has several strong riders such as Marcus Burghardt and Manuel Quinziato who could provide great support as well. It is interesting that some of their top classics riders such as Karston Kroon, Greg Van Avermet, and Alessandro Ballan were left off the Tour team.
Climbing: 8
Time Trialing: 8
Team: 7.5
Experience: 9
Preparation: 9
Robert Gesink (Rabobank) Age: 25.
Gesink is a skinny climber who appears to have improved his time trial abilities this year. Gesink finished 6th in the Tour last year and began this year by winning the Tour of Oman, placing 2nd in Tirreno-Adriatico, and finishing 3rd in the Tour of the Basque Country. He showed strong form on stage 7 of the Dauphine finshing third on a category 1 mountain finish after several hard days of racing. His 23rd placing in the Dauphine time trial may not bode well though.
Why he could win: Gesink has been steadily improving and it still only 25 years old. In addition to his 6th at the Tour last year, Gesink placed 7th at the Vuelta in 2008 and 6th in 2009. At only 25 Gesink has several top placings in big stage races. Gesink can climb extremely well and the lack of time trials in this years tour will benefit him.
Why he could lose: Gesink needs to improve his time trial ability to improve his placings in grand tours. His performance in Oman earlier this year indicated he had been working on this TT ability, but 23rd in the Dauphine TT, does not bode well. While he could go better than 6th, the top step will likely be a tall order this year.
Team Support: Getting Gesink to a high GC finish will be the aim of Rabobank at the Tour. Louis Leon Sanchez Gil, Carlos Barredo, Laurens Ten Dam and Bauke Mollema are likely to be key support riders. Rabobank has other strong men such as Lars Boom and Maarten Tjallingii among others who could provide useful on the flats and in the team time trial.
Climbing: 9
Time Trialing: 6
Team: 9.5
Experience: 7
Preparation: 9
Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Loto) Age 28.
The improving Van Den Broeck appears ready for the Tour based on his fourth overall finish at the Dauphine including a stage 1 victory. Other notable results this year include 13th at the Tour of the Basque Country and 2nd at the Vuelta a Andalucia. Van Den Broeck was 7th at the Giro in 2008, 14th at the Tour in 2009, and 5th at the Tour last year showing steady progress in grand tours.
Why he could win: Van Den Broeck appears to be reaching the prime for his career with good form. His whole year is focused on the Tour and he appears to be peaking at the right moment. He form appears to be steadily improving which means he may go better than his 5th place last year.
Why he could lose:Winning the Tour is a tall order. While Van Den Broeck will likely be the sole GC leader, the team is likely to have other ambitions with Gilbert and Greipel looking to win stages. Van Den Broeck finished 17th in the time trial at the Dauphine indicating he has some work to be done there. He is likely to lose time to the top contenders in the team time trial as well.
Team Support: Van Den Broeck will be the main focus of the team for the tour, but they have other stars as well. Van Den Broeck is not likely to have great support in the mountains. In looking at the results from the Dauphine and Tour de Suisse, there are few Omega Pharam-Loto riders that stand out. Several riders from the team performed well at the Giro, but they are unlikely to ride the Tour.
Climbing: 8
Time Trialing: 7.5
Team: 7
Experience: 7
Preparation: 9
Levi Leipheimer (Age 37)
Andreas Kloden (Age 36)
Chris Horner (Age 39)
Janez Brajkovic (Age 27) (Radioshack)
Radioshack will begin the tour with four leaders. Liepheimer and Kloden have both been on the podium at the tour and Horner produced the best Tour result on the team last year finishing 10th. Brajkovic’s best grand tour performance was a 17th place finish at the Giro in 2009. Leipheimer, Kloden, and Horner have all had good results so far this year in stage races. Kloden won the Tour of the Basque country and finished 2nd in Paris-Nice. Leipheimer won the Tour de Suisse and finished second in California while Horner was 2nd in the Basque Country and won California. Brajkovic should be coming into the prime of his career while the other three should be on the down slope.
Climbing: All four riders can climb, but they might lack the climbing prowess of Schleck or Contador. Leipheimer is more of a steady climber while the others have a bit more explosion. The best rider of this group will likely still lose time on the hardest mountain stages.
Time Trial: Kloden appears to be the best time trialest of the group this year. Leipheimer has great time trial ability as he has previously won a time trial stage at the Tour and finished 3rd in the recent Tour de Suisse time trial (behind Kloden and Cancellara). For a climber, Horner and Brajkovic can time trial well, but not as well as Kloden and Leipheimer. If Kloden and Leipheimer are going well they can make up time in the ITT on the climbers although all four riders lost time to Condator in the stage 19 ITT at the Tour last year.
Team Support: The team should do well in the team time trial as they have a number of strong riders. It remains to be seen how well the team can support four protected riders, but they will no doubt let other teams control the race similar to the Tour de Suisse this year.
Climbing: 8
Time Trialing: 8.5 (Kloden)
Team: 8
Experience: 9
Preparation: 8.5
Ryder Hesjedal (Age 30) & Christian Vande Velde (Age 35) (Garmin-Cervélo)
Garmin-Cervélo will have two GC riders with the revelation of Hesjedal’s 7th in the Tour last year after Vande Velde crashed out. Vande Velde has previously finished 4th and 8th at the Tour although crashing has been a larger problem for him in recent years. Hesjedal has been consistent in stage races this year finishing 7th at Criterium International, 9th in the Basque Country, 10th in California, and 20th in the Tour de Suisse. Vande Velde has two top ten finishes this year with a 5th in Oman and 4th in Califonia. He was 26th in the recent Tour de Suisse.
Why they could win: Vande Velde has been crash free for the firs time in years. He has been building for the Tour and showed some good form in Califonia. In 2009, he showed a tremendous ability to peak at the Tour after a devastating crash in the Giro. Hesjedal got his opportunity to display his grand tour skills last year after a Vande Velde crash and finished a surprising 7th overall including a 4th place finish on the stage 17 climb to Tourmalet. Hesjedal appeared to get stronger in the Tour’s final week which is important for a grand tour rider.
Why they could lose: Neither Vande Velde nor Hesjedal has the climbing ability of Schleck, Gesink, or Contador. Vande Velde is probably the better time trialist of the two finishing 10th in the recent Tour de Suisse ITT compared to 24th for Hesjedal. Neither has been on the podium of a grand tour and both may have to help out on sprint stages supporting Farrar and Hushovd.
Team Support: While a good GC placing will be important, Garmin also brings two quality sprinters in Farrar and Hushovd to the Tour. Hushold has won the points classification (green jersey) and may try to win it again this year. With increase in value for intermediate sprint points, any rider that chases the green jersey will need more support than in past years. This may mean less support for GC riders and more work required of Vande Velde and Hesjedal. Garmin prides itself in the team time trial, so they will likely be one of the top teams for the TTT.
Climbing: 7
Time Trialing: 7.5
Team: 8
Experience: 6.5
Preparation: 8
Bradley Wiggins (Sky) Age: 31.
Wiggins is a top track rider who began to focus on road cycling in 2007 and 2008. While Wiggins has had numerous high placing in time trials, his 4th place finish at the Tour in 2009 while riding for Garmin was his first display of grand tour ability. After transferring to Sky in 2010 and focusing on the Tour, Wiggins finished a disappointing 24th. Wiggins recently showed great form wining the Dauphine and displaying great climbing ability.
Why he could win: Winning the Tour is about being able to time trial and climb. Wiggins has shown his ability to time trial for several years coming from a background on the track. In 2009 Wiggins rode well on several mountain stages at the Giro before showing his climbing legs at the Tour. His recent win at the Dauphine indicates he is back on the 2009 form that could lead him to a high placing.
Why he could lose: Sky placed their hopes on Wiggins last year, but he did not perform well. It is difficult to perform under pressure as Wiggins found out last year. Wiggins ability to climb has come as a result of weight loss that allows him to have a high power to weigh ratio. It is not easy to lose weight and maintain power. The Tour will be a three week test to determine if Wiggins has dialed in the right weight to power ratio. Also, Wiggins specialty is time trialing which there is less of in this years Tour compared to past years.
Team Support: Wiggins will be the focus of the teams goals at the Tour especially with his win at the Dauphine. Sky hired Rigoberto Uran to help out in big races. Michael Rogers, Thomas Lofvkist, Edvald Boassan Hagan, and others will likely form one of the stronger teams at the Tour. With the team management knowing a great deal of track racing, they should be one of the better teams in the team time trial.
Climbing: 8
Time Trialing: 9
Team: 8.5
Experience: 7
Preparation: 8
Nicolas Roche (AG2R-La Mondiale) Age: 27.
Roche should be reaching the prime of his career after finishing an impressive 15th at the Tour last year. Following the Tour, Roche rode to a 7th place finish in the Vuelta. Roche crashed out of the recent Dauphine although his website reports he has fully recovered from the crash. Roche does not have any high placings in stage races this year, although he has finished well in several individual stages.
Why he could win: Roche is the son of former Tour winner Stephen Roche. Roche is coming into the prime of his career and appears to be improving with each grand tour he enters. Roche needs to improve both his time trialing and climbing, but he has not reached his limits as a cyclist. Roche may have placed better in the overall at the Tour last year if he had not lost time due to a flat on stage 15. Prior to crashing out of the Dauphine he finished 5th on the tough 1st stage.
Why he could lose: While Roche continues to improve, he appears to be a few years away from contending for a podium spot in the Tour. He will be coming to the Tour after crashing out of the Dauphine which is not ideal preparation. He does not appear to have tested himself in any stage race so far this year, so his form for the Tour is likely to be unknown.
Team Support: AG2R should field a good team for the tour and provide support for Roche. John Gadret is coming off an impressive showing at the Giro and he and Roche are reported to have made up after their dispute last year. Cyril Dessel, Martin Elmiger, and Rinaldo Nocentini among others will provide a good supporting cast. They may not rival the top teams in the TTT, but they should not be last either.
Climbing: 7.5
Time Trialing: 7
Team Support: 7
Experience: 7
Preparation: 7
Alexander Vinokourov (Astana) Age: 37.
Vinokourov will be the sole leader of Astana in his final year of racing. He finished 16th in the Tour last year wining stage 13 with a well timed attack to hold off the sprinters. Vinokourov is an attacking and exciting rider who can climb extremely well and time trial when he is on form. He finished 8th in Tour of the Basque Country, 3rd in Romandie, and 3rd in the Dauphine this year. He won the Vuelta in 2006 and has been 3rd and 5th in the Tour (2003 and 2005) prior to his doping related suspension from cycling. His 16th place at the Tour last year came after a 6th place finish in the Giro.
Why he could win: Vinokourov can climb and time trial. He will have the complete support of his team. Vino can be explosive in climbs and can be opportunistic in his attacks as he showed last year. He has won stages in Romandie and in the Basque Country this year. He appears to be aiming for a high GC finish at the Tour this year and his recent form at the Dauphine indicates that he is on track for a high finish.
Why he could lose: While Vino can time trial well compared to many of the other climbers, other than his 2nd in the Dauphine prologue, he has not have another top 10 finish in an ITT this year. Since his return to cycling, he has not threatened to win a grand tour.
Team Support: Astana focus at the Tour will be supporting Vinokourov. He will likely have Roman Kreuziger who finished 9th in the Tour last year as his main support rider. Astana finished 17th in the TTT at the Giro this year, although the Tour team may not share many of the same riders. While the team may not be as strong as Leopard-Trek or Rabbobank, it should be a quality team.
Climbing: 8.5
Time Trialing: 8
Experience: 8.5
Team: 7.5
Preparation: 9
Peter Velits/Tony Martin (HTC-Highroad) Age: 26/26.
Velits and Martin look to be the GC men for HTC on a team that will be built around Mark Cavendish. HTC has the fastest sprinter in the peloton, so the GC men may have to help with the sprint train at some point. Velits is coming off of a strong 3rd place showing at the Vuelta last year. Martin produced wins this year at the Volta ao Algarve and Paris-Nice with a second place in Romandie. Martin finished 137th in the Tour last year so his strength in a grand tour is yet to be seen.
Why they could win: Peter Velits is an up and coming talent who turned potential into reality at the Vuelta last year. Tony Martin has been one of the best stage races so far this year. Both are young and improving which means they could surprise the bigger favorites. HTC is good at developing talent and nothing is better for finding a sponsor than a head turning performance at the Tour. Both riders are strong in the time trial with Velits winning the Vuelta stage 17 time trial last year (beating Cancellara) and Martin placing 3rd in the 2010 World Time Trial Championship.
Why they could lose: Neither rider has a strong result at the Tour. Velits had a strong Vuelta last year, but probably needs more time before he threatens the top step in a grand tour. Martin has been outstanding in stage races this year, but a grand tour performance may be too much to ask. The primary focus of HTC at the Tour is likely to be getting stage wins for Cavendish rather than a GC result.
Team Support: It looks like Tejay Van Garderen will ride the tour and can provide support in the mountains. Most of the rest of the team will likely be devoted to Cavendish and the sprint stages. If Cavendish goes after the points classification, the team will have to provide several support riders to help win intermediate sprints as well as the final sprint for the stage win. HTC won the team time trial at the Giro and will likely produce a strong result at the Tour.
Climbing: 7.5
Time Trialing: 9
Experience: 7
Team: 6
Preparation: 8
169 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Re: Evans
You forgot to mention the whole broken elbow thing. I think that affected his performance in 2010 more than the Giro-Tour double.
For Garmin, I expect Danielson to win the who-is-Garmin’s-GC-leader lottery this year. He put in solid climbs partnered with a solid TT in the TdS. I don’t see him winning, but I think he’s the best bet for another Garmin top 10.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
I agree..
I thought about including the elbow issues, but I thought the larger obstacle might be his confidence in the Tour. He hasn’t done well in the past two Tours. He has a great deal of experience, so it might be my imagination.
Vande Velde knows how to peak for the Tour. He seems to come on good form at the right time. I don’t think Danielson will be given the freedom to ride for himself. I would love to see Danielson ride well as his demons appear to be inside his head, but I’m not sure that will happen.
With how Andy has shown this year
I hope he doesn’t podium. I don’t want to see a guy that doesn’t even try to win ANYTHING get on the podium of a GT at all. I would love to see Cadel podium or maybe Horner. But sadly, the podium will probably be Bert, AS, and Evans (hopefully for Evans). I think it’s gonna be a good Tour this year. Bring on the attacks.
Focus on easy first. If that's all you get, that ain't half bad - Caballo Blanco
the last sentence made me laugh.
GC contenders rules of attacking (excluding AC):
1. Uphill only
2. With the final 2k of said uphill
3. As long as uphill isnt too steep
4. As long as uphill is too easy
5. When fabian lets us
by mr. rogers on Jun 21, 2011 2:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I was referring to Bert and Horner
We know nobody else will really even try.
Focus on easy first. If that's all you get, that ain't half bad - Caballo Blanco
Great review...generous with some rankings, IMO, but great job.
Example of generous ranking: Andy is not a 7 in a TT, IMO. I’d give him a 6 if being kind and a 4 if being more realistic. He’s worse then Gesink, who’s middle of the road in my book.
That said, as you noted, the 41km of TTing in this tour means he won’t be completely demolished by Contador in the TT…
Gesink's REALLY improved his time-trialling.
Andy Schleck has shown no improvement in any facet of his riding this year.
agree with that (being kind to AS)...
Roche could probably be a 6 or 6.5 too…after all he’s only just received his TT practice bike this year :)
by JustJoshinYa on Jun 21, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Gesink rode himself on the podium of both the Tirreno and Pais Vasco...
… in the time trial. Certainly not by climbing amazingly well. He even lost time uphill in the time trial itself :) This preview seems based on the 2010 Gesink.
At any rate, he’s certainly no worse than Hesjedal or VDB.
by blackswangreen on Jun 21, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you
trying to get me excited? Mission accomplished.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jun 21, 2011 1:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He did still suck in the actual TT that will be used at the Tour ;)
by blackswangreen on Jun 21, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
suck = sandbag
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jun 21, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought
Andy improved his TT last year. I’m not sure how much he tested himself this year to really know his TT ability. If he did test himself in California and Tour de Suisse, I think he is behind in his preparation.
I think Contador weakened more than Andy improved last year
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Ezzaxtly!
It was a very weak tour of Contador. No way comparable to the 2009 version or the 2011 Giro.
Guess who'll ride the Dutch RR NC for Rabobank employees June 26th? Just before the pro's hit the course for the real thing!
+many
If one use Contadors 2010 TdF performance as ref, one will get very wrong numbers.
i say we stop...
Using 2010 as a ref for AC and we stop using 2009 as a ref for everyone else. Makes things a lot easier.
by mr. rogers on Jun 21, 2011 3:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Perhaps the real problem in comparing the two is
that Contador has won about 15-20 stage races including 6 GT’’s, whereas A Schleck have won nil.
That right there is what defines my heartburn over Andy Schleck.
But I’d still like to see him put the wood to Alberto!!!
Do not interfere in the affairs of Dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup!
Good point
My two qualifiers though is:
1. Andy is younger.
2. Contador is a decent to good time trialist. Andy is a shit TT’er. It’s really hard to win the shorter stage races when you have a shit TT. Even the 2011 TdS, which was very climby for a short stage race, was won at the TT.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Well, there aren't many non complete riders with
multiple GT wins.
Cunego, who attacked only >once< in this years TdS and who rides a TT like an old man with a wooden leg, almost won the race. The denfensive riding gave the victory to a wheelsucker who can TT.
Personally, I would not be surprised if Gesink won a GT before A Schleck did.
by Uphill on Jun 21, 2011 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's wrong
It should say “I’ll blame it on too little caffeine.”
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Jun 21, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly what I'm saying.
Too much caffeine is not a thing.
Too little caffeine is definitely a thing.
There is
actually a sweet spot for caffeine for me…I’m not too partial to the jitters despite drinking much of my coffee and working on this at Jittery Joes
Mmmmmm...Jittery Joe's
I am drinking a delicious cup at this very moment. Morning Ride. Freshly ground.
Vino
Climbing mark is too high imo. I would give him 7-7.5.
Vino
is really hard for me to judge. In looking at his results he had done better than I remember since coming back. He won LBL and has many more decent results than I thought. You might be right as I don’t remember him climbing with the best at the Giro last year.
Don't think you can use a one day race such as LBL as a ref regarding climbing skills
in a GT. None of the hills in LBL compares to the tough mountains in any of the GT’s. I can’t recall Vino (after doping comeback) outperforming any favorites in a tough mountain stage. Vino can attack of a steep hill and TT to the finish to a win, but I don’t think that skill is what the climbing score above means (unless I am wrong here).
I agree
with you for the most part. I agree LBL vs a grand tour climb is very different. When I looked at Vinos results this year at the Dauphine and Romandie I was impressed. When I started writing this I did not intend to rank him so highly, but he does have some good climbing results this year.
He’s never been good in the high mountains even when he was all Pharma’d up.
What would Deming do? (+8:00 GMT)
Really?
6 years ago?
One time I kicked ass in the ‘High Mountains’ six years ago . . . . one time.
What would Deming do? (+8:00 GMT)
It means
“less than six years ago”. I’m not sure what the Swedish equivalent is for that.
Put it down to a cultural thing and fuck it dude, let’s go bowling.
"He will sooner grow flowing locks of golden Bon Jovi-hair from his bald and barren head." - Jens discussing the possibility of Riis bringing a sprinter to a Pistol/GC fight.
by omnevelnihil on Jun 22, 2011 8:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Oops my bad
I totally lost the plot. I somehow got the idea that RL’s comment was about Popo. I blame the z key.
Contador clearly was in peak form for the Giro. And so maybe hard to peak a second time.
But despite a difficult Giro course, I was rarely under the impression that he was ever “on the rivet” or really killing himself.
moo
I thought the
same thing about the effort Contador was giving. I looked like he wasn’t going full gas especially on the stage where he dropped the same guy twice in route to finishing second (don’t remember who it was – maybe Nibali).
I still think he had to go a fairly deep to win and the course was particularly hard this year.
He's certainly not peaked too early ;)
by blackswangreen on Jun 21, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point
The prep was really my attempt at saying these guys are peaking for the Tour and appear to be on schedule with whatever plan they have.
Other than the face plant, I think he is on track with his plan for doing well in the Tour.
Mainly
because Contador is doing the Giro-Tour double. That was my inspiration for the preparation points. A few others haven’t had the build up they wanted or haven’t shown good form yet. The main reason I included it was to emphasize the difficulty I think Contador will have in winning the Tour after the Giro.
Perhaps the prep score should be binary instead then.
Rode Giro to win: Yes/No
Sure
but I’m probably too lazy to go back and change it.
by John.. on Jun 21, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd
words to live by.
"He will sooner grow flowing locks of golden Bon Jovi-hair from his bald and barren head." - Jens discussing the possibility of Riis bringing a sprinter to a Pistol/GC fight.
by omnevelnihil on Jun 22, 2011 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions
'Other than the face plant'
Yes, but that face plant made rather a dent in his training schedule so it’s probably a limiting factor, however well other aspects of his preparation may be going
I agree
but its hard to tell how much impact it will have. Sometimes rest is helpful, but I doubt the face plant did him much good. My own personal experience from unwanted broken ribs was that I was flying when I came back.
He finished 26th in the Dauphine after the wreck so I would think he is close to on schedule with his training.
He is likely to lose time to the top contenders in the team time trial as well.
I think they’ll do ok. Remember Lotto at the Giro TTT? All the guys in Lotto’s TdF squad have been ordered to train on their time trial skills too.
Didn't they have most of their Tour squad at the Tirreno?
Their TTT kind of sucked there.
by blackswangreen on Jun 21, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Who rode his own team to smithereens.
by blackswangreen on Jun 21, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Tell Cancellara.
I mean to say that Leopard weren’t great then as well. And they certainly weren’t there with their Tour line up.
by blackswangreen on Jun 21, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Many more :)
41? I just looked it up 5 minutes ago, and I can’t remember.
But we all know the Rabo-boys are solid time trialists, if nothing more.
I don't expect much from Rabo in the Tour TTT.
That Tirreno team was much better for this particular discipline.
by blackswangreen on Jun 21, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
It was in there "We win everything" time
But agree with you. Lotto is not going to suck hard at the TTT. Think they will be around Saxo and BMC
Nice article..
2 remarks.. Re Contador
He may be the best climber in the world and probably in the top 5 in time trials.
No way he’s close to that. Evans, Menchov, Cancellara, T. Martin, Wiggins, Millar, etc. etc.
The other nvm! Well writte. Who do you think will podium?
Evans? Contador is a much better time trialist right now.
And he’s also more consistent in TTs than Menchov, who is alternatingly great or awful.
by blackswangreen on Jun 21, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
only when on GS is there a problem....
Was that a thud I just heard?
by JustJoshinYa on Jun 21, 2011 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I see he won almost every TT this year..
Menchov was also there at the Giro, you know.
by blackswangreen on Jun 21, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
He sucked that hard that I almost forget..
But well.. He was not in top of his form. You can blame Menchov that. Altho on top of his game he TT better than Contador.. I think.. But let’s see the TT of Contador in the Tour
Podium?
Assuming Andy Schleck has his training dialed in, he I think he should win. He only has to make up 39 seconds with fewer TT km in the race.
Gesink is only 25 and probably still improving so I’ll put him up there as well. Of course, I can’t see Contador not finishing on the podium.
I agree with an earlier comment about the ratings....
they are good, but let’s go out on a limb here…. or fall off the limb.
This is a yellow jersey preview, so we’re talking only the contenders. The 1-10 scale should be used. Otherwise it’s a 7-10 scale, which is really 1-4
Time Trial
Of true contenders Andy would be about a 2 in TT ability. Frank could be a 1.
Cunego could be a 2
Bert could be an 8
Levi for example would be a 9
Tony Martin a 10
Climbing
Bert is a 10
Andy is a 9.5
Gesink an 8?
Cunego/Basso/Evans could be a 7
Ryder/Vino could be 5 or 6?
Who could be a 1 or 2??? Leipheimer? Vandevelde? Tony Martin?
That makes it spicey.
Well, that's my point...
No one in their right mind think Napolitano is going to win the yellow jersey, so why consider him?
Inevitably, if you create a scale that is 1-1000000, but only distinguish the range as 5-7 within the 1-1000000, then your scale is actually 1-3.
I want to know who people think is the worst time trialist out of the favorites. Give him a 1. and the best a 10.
Same with climbing.
But then you have to define your list of favorites first
Why is Gadret not in it, or Mollema, van Garderen etc?
Guess who'll ride the Dutch RR NC for Rabobank employees June 26th? Just before the pro's hit the course for the real thing!
Because Mollema and Gadret don't have a shot for the podium
But agreed. Missed van Garderen as GC rider at HTC. Altho him riding top 10 would be already a little upset.
That Coppel isn’t named yet! Is the biggest shame for us all.. Altho this could really work out well for him. In our books, he isn’t the next French TdF winner.. Must be a relive for him
Yeah of course.
Let’s say there are 20. realistically.
Then a 1-10 scale can be divided by .5 into 20 rankings.
Who’s the best climber? Contador …. ok 10. Worst? …. Tony Martin? 1
Time Trialer? best? Martin …10, worst? Gadret…. 1.
Something like that.
We know Gadret will never win the Tour because he can’t TT his way out of a barn. But maybe he climbs at a 9.
If Gadret is a 7 and Sanchez is a 7.5 and Vino is an 8 at TT…. where is Andy? It’s too tight.
Actually
maybe I should give myself a 1 for giving feedback, a 6 for about to keep my mouth shut, and a 10 for…. should get off my ass and do my own ranking if I don’t like it.
Nah, debate's good
Debate shows that the original article was good. If the original was crap no one would bother commenting.
+1
If you start writing it now, your post should be ready to go early next week and we’ll debate that for a few days. July will be that little bit closer.
"He will sooner grow flowing locks of golden Bon Jovi-hair from his bald and barren head." - Jens discussing the possibility of Riis bringing a sprinter to a Pistol/GC fight.
by omnevelnihil on Jun 22, 2011 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
The ratings are
subjective and I am no doubt wrong on many of them.
I think Contador is a better time trialist than Levi right now. A few years go that might have been different as I think Levi bested Contador at the Vuelta in TT when Contador won the overall. I was also under the impression that Andy Schleck had improved his time trial ability, but several people here disagree so I could be wrong on that.
I also think an in form A. Schleck is equal to or better than an in form Contador in the mountains.
I’m really interested to see what Geskink does in the Tour.
Andy better Climber than Contador.
I can only recall one time where Andy managed to drop Contador in the mountains (early mountain stage in last years TdF), whereas Contador have dropped Andy perhaps 5 times (or more). Historically Contador is a better climber imo.
I just
thought Andy was climbing better and looked more at ease. I am probably also influenced by the interview with Chris Horner where he said he thought Andy was the better climber in the Tour last year.
that was last year.
Andy Schleck had best hope that he’s seeing good numbers on his SRM, because he’s not showing anything anywhere else. He towed lots of riders along with him in Suisse.
vs.
Contador dropped every rider in the Giro save Rujano repeatedly, and at will.
A Schleck’s only path to victory assumes a Contador who can not repeat that level of peak.
But remember the most difficult parts of the calculus: at least one GC rider will be eliminated via a crash and/or some other stupid first week incident. Ala 2006 and 2007, there’s a good chance that a rider or two will have to beat a hasty repeat from the Grande Depart under the cloud of the inevitable scandale presse.
The ratings are
subjective and I am no doubt wrong on many of them.
Personally, I think that’s fine and great, don’t worry about everyone disagreeing here and there.
The point is too spur discussion, so you have succeeded. :)
moo
+1
That, and to convince me that Gesink has more than a snowball’s chance in hell. That’s one of the few things that will get my excited beyond the first week.
"I'm sorry for all the people who worked to make the descent safe and the tifosi who went up there to watch the race but racing can't be allowed to become a circus. We're not clowns" Marco Pinotti
hater
"I'm sorry for all the people who worked to make the descent safe and the tifosi who went up there to watch the race but racing can't be allowed to become a circus. We're not clowns" Marco Pinotti
Sometimes I get sick of Will
It’s just timetrials, timetrials, timetrials with that guy. Hellooo!?, climbs matter too you know.
Maybe
if he actually went out and rode some of those climbs he’d appreciate them.
"I'm sorry for all the people who worked to make the descent safe and the tifosi who went up there to watch the race but racing can't be allowed to become a circus. We're not clowns" Marco Pinotti
'sides, it's not as if we have anything else to do for a week and a half
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
AS is not even really close to an in form Bert in the climbs
Focus on easy first. If that's all you get, that ain't half bad - Caballo Blanco
Funny, I only seem to remember Contador only dropping Schleck on a real climb once
2009 climb up Verbier. Outside of the chain thing and a short kicker in the 2010, Schleck has always been able to match Contador’s climbing.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Like was said upstream, 2010 is no measure
Focus on easy first. If that's all you get, that ain't half bad - Caballo Blanco
2009
there was also that early climb in the pyrenees – starts with an A i think – the polemica one where conta supposedly attacked against the orders of bruyneel and LA.
stage 7, andorre arcalis
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
Your ratings are skewed
Levi and VdV are about a 7 for climbing, up there with Evans. Basso is about an 8.5 to 9 when on form.
Focus on easy first. If that's all you get, that ain't half bad - Caballo Blanco
Tony Martin has to make it past 10 days
to be considered a GT contender.
He looks like the second coming of Michael Rogers to me.
Frank Schleck will be th key for Andy
Last year, the real game changer, was the fall of Franck in the cobbles stage.
This year, it seems andy and Franck are only focus on the Tour. In a mountain stage, the two brothers have the key to beat Contador, if not, the group of 30s ran already for the 2nd and 3rd place.
Gesink is underestimate two. Remember that, he is a climber. But he finished 10th on the olympic games time trial
and his team is ready, the only risk for him is his teammate Bauke Mollema, maybe he will be the young surprise on the Tour,
by Ludovic Bostral on Jun 21, 2011 2:46 PM EDT reply actions
Are you saying the crash last year wasn't strategy?
It did create a split in the peloton and did earn Andy time on the other GC guys…
(snark).
by JustJoshinYa on Jun 21, 2011 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
This is my theory too
If anything is to be done about Contador the Schleck Double-whammy is crucial. (Assuming they actually use it as an offensive weapon which isn’t a given since Fränk & Kim A tend to be frustratingly defensive.)
That would be great if the Bros would attack.
Either of them, but I have a feeling they won’t.
"Just power of the beer, man" - tsgirl
They tried to attack Phil Gil in LBL
First together on Roche, then the attempted one-two on St. Nicolas that Phil crushed immediately. Didn’t get a lot of credit for it either.
I’m sure they’ll try. Making it work though…
by Mr 60 Percent on Jun 21, 2011 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah . . . and on a long climb . . .
Contador has the matches to match 2 attackers.
A team (or combination of teams) will have to make him ride early, maybe burn some efforts on the flats and then launch 3 or 4 riders all attacking multiply and at separate times to get rid of him.
Think Paris-Nice stage 6 or 7 2007. It was Lulu who did him in then . . .
A little like 2003
When Vino, Mayo, Ullrich, Zubeldia, Moreau and Hamilton kept taking their shots. With this year’s TT kms, they would have had him.
by Mr 60 Percent on Jun 21, 2011 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Really it call comes down to
How tired Bert is.
Not tired? He wins. Nothing Andy or Frank and Andy or anyone else can do about it.
Tired? Then we have a race.
Agree
Pretty good summation. My thought is that Contador will be tired. To me, Andy hasn’t shown good form so far this year which makes me wonder about how good he will be. I assume he is seeing the numbers he wants in training so he is not showing his cards in the races.
I think Evans has looked good so far this year and I hope he is back to form in the Tour. Basso is aiming for a good finish and had some good early results. Gesink started off strong and has supposedly worked on his TT skills.
My hope beyond hope is that Horner will get a top 5 finish. I love the guy. He had some good form in the past few years and has had a few nasty crashes. He looks good this year and I hope he has his form dialed in.
And some luck is needed to survive to the end
"On paper, your team is awesome." -- Pigeons on my WVDS team, and life in general.
Yeah, I can't see that the Frank/Andy attacking team is so menacing to Contador
If Frank attacks, Contador shrugs and let the other guys with stage win ambitions try to chase him down. If Andy attacks, Contador goes with him and Frank probably can’t follow for long.
Basically, if Bert brings his good legs, I don’t think tactics will make that much difference in the climby bits.
My second place behind Contador is worth a lot--Michele Scarponi
I don't think anyone outside of journalists and fans
rates Frank Schleck as a legitimate gc contender.
He’s a Sylvester Szmyd with lousier bike-handling skills and a cooler little brother.
I forget--has Szmyd ever won the Tour de Suisse?
Or placed top 5 in any GT?
I’ll need Contador’s compact, a Y chromosome & nutella--Bridie O'Donnell, on what it's going to take to get through Stage 3 of the Giro Donne
That was then (even if it is last year)
I could be wrong, but it looks to me as though the most wattage either of the Schleck’s have put out this year has been to get their L-T checks deposited.
i think you met stage 6 in the 2009 paris-nice (cause, you know, conta won pn 2007)
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
met = meant
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
Don't know
If Navarro will be as strong as last year I think he and Conta are a good match for the Schleckies.
Guess who'll ride the Dutch RR NC for Rabobank employees June 26th? Just before the pro's hit the course for the real thing!
Peraud seems like he could be another option for AG2R
Sminer: I blame KARMA for everything.
Jens: I've heard it's a bitch
Water Girl: I heard it ran over your dogma
On Basso...
Is Nibali really going to be there as a support rider? Me and my VDS did not know that.
The yellow fields of Spain are lovely in September, you know.
:^)
It already looks like Spain in September down here and it’s going to stay like this for another three months.
by Mr 60 Percent on Jun 22, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Basso, Vino, and Cadel
I’ll be cheering for all these 3 guys this year, simply because they’d all paid their dues. Realistically, this year’s TDF edition is the their last shot at a podium finish. They also have the full backing of their respective teams for the GC.
Contador was not on top form last year, and he pluverized all of the B-list riders
I can’t imagine this being anything other than a 2-man (or one-man) race.
Well at least I have 1995, 2000, and 2003. Those were fun.
by dees ees en drama on Jun 22, 2011 11:36 AM EDT reply actions
I have nothing new to add, but want to anyway
Alberto. If he blows up week 3 of the TdF I’ll blame the Giro but until then I’m taking the Giro win as positive sign that he can stay focused and motivated amid the clen mess. No point in commenting on his climbing… 10+. Seems like he can week-3 ITT as well as any of the GC guys, if not better. I think it was the DMillar interview that said it best… this guy is a freak of nature.
Andy. Geez Andy, what was with the ITT at the end of the TdS? If he was not giving full-gas I think he should have been and if he was giving it all (dai?) it was ugly, at least for TdF GC contender. Climbing, not as good as Alberto but better than any of the GC guys from the 1999-2006 era? 2010 stage 17 with Berto on the Tourmalet, I suspect the cameras didn’t do justice to full-on blow-for-blow throw-down that occurred there. I want to root for Andy, hope he shows up in form and makes it all entertaining.
Ivan. Would have like to have seen him add to the Bert/Andy mix but if he gets in shape after the showing at CdD I would be highly surprised. He gets dropped on the first climb.
Cadel. When he wins, I believe it when I see it, until then he’s just very good. Please, no interviews, just ride.
C Horner. Soft spot for the guy. Would love to see him have an impact on the GC. And the more interviews the better, contrary to some opinions.
Ryder H. Same as my Horner comments.
I wouldn’t read too much into anybody’s performances at the Tour de Suisse or the Dauphine. The ultimate goal is to peak during the third week of the Tour, and the top riders don’t always have the same goals at the final races leading up to the big one.
That said, a few observations; Jani Braijcovic can time trial and climb, and has had a sensible (read: not overloaded) season so far. He has support if he turns out to have earned it. Darkhorse for the podium.
If I’m Bryan Nygaard, I’m putting the screws to Saxo Bank early and often. It’s important for Contador and his team to be tired going into the third week. Just have to hope that Andy’s TT performance at TDS (as mentioned earlier) wasn’t a true indication of where he’ll be when it really counts.
Too late to make up lost ground after the crash for Basso to be a factor. Don’t think he really wants it deep down, anyway.
Vino will appear to be dangerous at some point, but will do something tactically that makes no sense at all and it will drop him from the conversation.
Cadel will have another excuse. Might make the podium, but doesn’t have the team, the talent or the will to take the top step.
Don’t have a prediction, but will be rooting for Andy Schleck, Brad Wiggins and Jani Braijcovic to make the podium (in no particular order).
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Podium Cafe
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Celebrate the Giro d'Italia at Podium Cafe!
Check our Giro Section for race updates, on-the-scene reports, and other hijinx.
Featured Stories
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
