Tour de France: The Real GC Standings
by platypus on Jul 11, 2011 9:18 AM EDT
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Voeckler has the yellow and all is well in the French universe. But we know how long that will last - his best hope is to hold it through to stage 12 surely. And you would have to think that Rabo would like to put Luis Leon into yellow sometime in the next few days, but where is the main field really sitting?
Well, I had a go at calculating the gaps for those who are realistic top ten contenders at this point using Cadel as the benchmark.
I know LuLu is a top ten contender but I can't see him staying with the top five after the Pyrenees. I am not sure where to put him at the moment so I just left him off. I think it will all become a lot clearer after stage 12 and certainly by 14.
What the table below the jump shows is that on paper this race is still wide open.
What the table can't show is who has survived the first week with the least wear and tear on their bodies, their minds and their team. On that basis, you would have to say Contador has some issues, Kloden is out of it, and both Garmin and HTC teams have been working very hard. Obviously Evans and the Schlecks are in good shape, but I say don't write off Samuel Sanchez and Ivan Basso. There are some long descents coming up and we will see whose nerve holds after all the crashes. Given that Andy is not renowned for his descending, I say watch out for a Samu comeback.
Who do you think is the best climber + descender left in this group?
|
current overall |
|
|
current gap |
real gap |
|
3 |
EVANS Cadel |
BMC RACING TEAM |
+ 02' 26" |
|
|
4 |
SCHLECK Frank |
TEAM LEOPARD-TREK |
+ 02' 29" |
+ 0' 03" |
|
5 |
SCHLECK Andy |
TEAM LEOPARD-TREK |
+ 02' 37" |
+ 0' 11" |
|
6 |
MARTIN Tony |
HTC - HIGHROAD |
+ 02' 38" |
+ 0' 12" |
|
8 |
KLÖDEN Andréas |
TEAM RADIOSHACK |
+ 02' 43" |
+ 0' 17" |
|
11 |
BASSO Ivan |
LIQUIGAS-CANNONDALE |
+ 03' 36" |
+ 1' 10" |
|
12 |
CUNEGO Damiano |
LAMPRE - ISD |
+ 03' 37" |
+ 1' 11" |
|
13 |
ROCHE Nicolas |
AG2R LA MONDIALE |
+ 03' 45" |
+ 1' 19" |
|
15 |
GESINK Robert |
RABOBANK CYCLING TEAM |
+ 04' 01" |
+ 1' 35" |
|
16 |
CONTADOR Alberto |
SAXO BANK SUNGARD |
+ 04' 07" |
+ 1' 41" |
|
17 |
DANIELSON Tom |
TEAM GARMIN - CERVELO |
+ 04' 22" |
+ 1' 54" |
|
18 |
TAARAMAE Rein |
COFIDIS LE CREDIT EN LIGNE |
+ 04' 52" |
+ 2' 26" |
|
19 |
VANDE VELDE Christian |
TEAM GARMIN - CERVELO |
+ 04' 53" |
+ 2' 27" |
|
20 |
SANCHEZ Samuel |
EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI |
+ 05' 01" |
+ 2' 35" |
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Thanks.
2 things I’ve noticed (besides all the crashes):
1) Tony Martin appears to be really trying. I’ve noticed him at/near the front of the main group on the climbs so far.
2) Nobody has even mentioned Sam San. Since he announced his bid for TdF podium (what? 2 years ago?), he’s flying under the radar. He’s 2+ minutes down on the Schlecks. I can see him overhauling Frank for 3rd or 4th.
In loving memory of Dale Earnhardt - 4/29/51 - 2/18/01
And Klödi (if healthy) and Basso are staying off the radar,
but they remain serious podium contenders IMO
Let's wait and see if Kloden's okay.
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Basso is to be watched.
I don’t rank AK to highly. I think he’ll be dropped badly in the mts.
If Peyton Manning crashed onto a barbed-wire fence and returned to a game, you’d never hear the end of it for the rest of your life.
yeah, in 2004 and 2006
but he’s 36 now and 5 years is a long time. He can still TT and may have won PV and been second at P-N, but I don’t think he can finish on the podium or top 5 in a TdF with this many mountains and so little flat time trial kms. Since 2006 he has only finished three grand tours and the 2009 Tour where Astana dominated and he was 6th is his only top ten. I don’t think he can be the GC leader for a team in the mountains and not lose time and really blow up at least once.
I think the Pais Vasco win is worth quite a lot
as it’s arguably the most climber-oriented major stage race. Add to that how well he’s been time trialling and his record at the Tour and I think you have a solid contender despite his age. I had him as 4th going into the Tour, partly because of the strength of his team.
Doesn’t matter much now though, seeing as it’s just him and Levi and he’s injured.
Regardless of his health
His team is in rough shape. Radioshack is down to six riders – Popovych, Horner and Brajkovic are all out of the race. You can’t compete in the mountains without strong support from your team. I would be surprised if Kloden finishes in the top 10.
Der T-Martt has been near the front, but the climbing hasn't really started yet.
It seems appropriate to stick Velits in the fifth spot there seeing as he was on the vuelta podium. He’s been attentive on the uphill finishes too.
He should try and find out how good he really is as a GC-rider and on which points he needs to work
Top 15 (20 maybe) would already be a great result for him at that age.
Is he co-leader with Martin or is he working for Tony?
Because he has been protecting his GC position so far, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it is on a contingent “the road will decide” basis.
Panzerwagen!!
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
sure
but Panzerwagen is too awesome to leave out. Something tells me he likes bad hair metal music.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
uh-oh (thread jack alert)
“bad hair metal music”? You mean – like this?
In loving memory of Dale Earnhardt - 4/29/51 - 2/18/01
there is no way
I am clicking on that link.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Damn
I’ll get you for this…
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Damn Tmart or Klodi could really get a podium
definitely top-5 with their TTing. Of course the 4 mountain days could mean massive losses but I don’t see many healthy guys behind them in the standings, we’ll see what Bert has. Cadel looks like he has got a real chance.
Kloden is injured.
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
I certainly want him to be...but falling is never good.
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
arguably, seriously contused back muscles
is a more debilitating injury to a cyclist than a broken coccyx.
I agree...and there are also what I am translating as spasms. As a fan I'm seriously hoping he's okay
and fit enough to ride.
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
2 problems with Martin
really, they’re the same problem and they’re named Cavendish.
As in: all those Training Stress points accumulated at the front for Cavendish are stress points that can’t be used to excel in the mountains.
That applies to Martin, Velits, and especially to the only guy on that team who could help them in the mountains: Van Garderen.
That's just interval training
I think Martin and Velits are fine. They’re not sitting on the front shutting down breaks all day. They are taking a 5 minute turn on the front (if that).
It’s not ideal and it could certainly hurt their future performance. But let’s not pretend they are crippled by it or anything. I am pretty sure Velits had to do lead out duty in the Vuelta, and that worked well for him.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Vuelta not comparable to Tour, really
And whatever you want to call those efforts, they’re efforts that none of the real GC contenders have had to make.
More important, though, is the stress accumulated by potential support teammates.
Pate’s already fried. Van Garderen as well. Do you see Renshaw taking a pull at the base of Luz Ardiden?
Hard to Say
It might have an effect, or maybe they’ll finish where they would have anyway. Certainly, I love that they are being active in the race. It would be outstanding if guys that were willing to work for the team in the early stages could still do well working for themselves in the overall.
"I'm sorry for all the people who worked to make the descent safe and the tifosi who went up there to watch the race but racing can't be allowed to become a circus. We're not clowns" Marco Pinotti
I need to see another impressive result before I rank Velits as good as his shock podium GT would show
not saying it can’t happen but I just need to see more. I agree with R MC, I’ve been bitching at HTC for two years now about it. Really I think their lack of funding shows they need to give it more of a go for GC at the Tour, plus their leadouts this year have been pretty ugly.
And BTW Levi Leipheimer is at 4'50" on my list
That realistically puts an end to the podium, but he is still an option for top ten if he can recover from his crashes. He was climbing really well coming into the tour.
Depends
if he feels strong, he’s not off the podium. 4’50" isn’t much in a grand tour.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
It might not be much except for the quality of the guys in be teen him and the front spot
To all of whom he gives up 2 minutes. Wishful thinking, Chris.
That two minutes
is gone in the TT in most cases.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
That two minutes is just to SamSan
There is not way he is TTing past both Schlecks (who have almost 5 minutes on him before any real mountains) much less good time trialists like Evans, Martin, Velits and Kloden (if he can recover) who all also have more than 4 minutes. He might put two into AC and Basso if they aren’t on top form, but he’ll probably lose more than that before the penultimate stage (TT) anyway. He only beat Nico Roche by 2’19" last year with less mountains and a flat 50+km TT and he has already lost 3’31" to Roche this year. I don’t think he can go top 7 much less a podium, but he may climb into the top ten with a little luck.
A shame, but the truth is evident.
I would be nice if he could prove it wrong, but I don’t forsee Levi doing well in the mountains.
David Arroyo is 24 minutes down
Watch for him to bomb a descent Giro style and try to grab a stage – maybe stage 13.
Gesink
At de Telegraaf he sounds like he’s coming around, finally. Very heartfelt piece, even if the gnomes stripped it of the subtleties. Frickin gnomes.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 11:04 AM EDT reply actions
Evans is riding like he smells blood in the water.
and BMC has been up to controlling the race.
But, I think strategically it would be wise to lose 5 seconds to Franck Schleck.
Perfect first week
Just perfect. Chapeau. Now let’s see what ya got. Oh,, and I’d rate him about a minute better in the ITT than Andy. Panzerwagen wins that factor, but Cadel is probably next, ahead of CVV and Bert.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
And where does a hopefully fit Kloden slot in?
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Pre-crash, I would rate Kloden on par with Cance and Tony Martin
Who knows now.
Don’t forget Velits too. Anyone who beats Cance in a time trial, even if only once, needs respect.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
He hasn't shown that kind of speed this year
about half a minute down of Tmart and 45 to Cance would be my guess
Who, Kloden or Velits?
Kloden was 9 seconds off Cance in the TdS. I am not saying he will beat either one, but he has put in some excellent ITTs this year.
Velits. Who the hell knows. A true question mark.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Great
until the crash.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
The unknown factor in the BMC equation is mountain support for Evans.
The teams support on the flat and rolling parts of the route seems excellent, but how well will the support be in the higher parts? The answer, I think, could be the key to Evans success.
Agree.
However even with another team setting the pace, how many will sit with Evans late in the mountain stage? I guess we will see after stage 12.
2 at best.
But if I’m doing strategy for BMC, I want to use other teams.
Thus, Europcar having yellow is a bonus.
Rabobank is very important too—and it might be just as good to have Sanchez in yellow for a couple of days as it would be to have Franck Schleck, since Ten Dam and Mollema can climb a bit, and Gesink might be healing up.
A really big question is whether or not Jesus Navarro has been putting in the sand-bag performance of his life, or if he’s genuinely in trouble already, cuz one thing all GC teams can agree on is the need to put Contador and his team in trouble (albeit not quite so literally as the Katusha method).
Other teams...
Lelangue can probably grab a few guys at OPL or QS.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
OPL - I doubt it
They’re down to Phil plus five, and they want that green jersey. Doubt they’re going to be helping out anyone – least of all Evans – unless it benefits them too.
You mean
benefit$. Surely there are contracts to be worked out as well. Lots of diverse motives…
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
So they're satisfied?
Man, socialism really is a problem.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
It will probably take a careful skill to guide Lulu in yellow on stage 12.
I mean, if he is strong enough to come in with the favourites on the stage, he could turn out to be a threat in the GC.
i like how you made jesus hernandez and dani navarro into one person there
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
well, they are both in the tdf
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
Evans has Santamorita
Specially recruited from liquigas for this purpose and they have been training together all year. Santamorita has plenty of experience guiding Basso. I think Evans will be fine.
That, and
I think he made a calculated gamble: He stacked his team with guys for the first week, and figured he’d look after himself in the mountains, which is how he has nearly always ridden. I’d guess it’ll work.
Yes, one team mate to support him in the mountains ...
… seems to me to be an average of one more than most of his previous tours.
Isn't Steve Morabito fair in the climbs?
Not as good as the top mountain guides, but hopefully servicable.
[Pigilito has a] lifetime stupid statement pass [on PdC] -- Yeehoo
flashbacks
poor Cuddles.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
He needs a lot of things to go his way – like other teams in yellow on certain stages. But Evans in Yellow in Paris has gone from a very long-shot to ……. possible. Sweet!
"Long Live Cols" - ant1
Aerts was on Vive le Vélo some time this past week
And he said riding for Cadel requires a lot of energy (lots more than riding for JVDB he said), because Cadel is just so stressed all the time. One minute he wants to be in Leipheimer’s wheel, then Contador’s, then he wants x, then he wants y… just stress all the time.
very interesting
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 11, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I could see that being true
In that post-race video he is very raw, very jittery. I could see him being at that level for most of a stage. In a classic that could be the right state of mind but it might be sub-optimal over a three week race?
Adding
The team that can humor him and can do the extra work required might find that it is worth the effort. Omega never managed, maybe BMC are doing just that?
Maybe he has toned it down on BMC too
He seems more relaxed at least.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
And perhaps having guys he trusts to guide him right
(Hincapie, Quinz) helps doing that. Kind of like how finding Renshaw stopped Cav from fluttering about all over the place in the sprints?
no doubt much of that was down to the team surrounding him
I’d be stressed to if I were a GC guy riding on th Lotto team of a couple years ago.
Focus on easy first. If that's all you get, that ain't half bad - Caballo Blanco
Hincapie can ride well at the front for a good portion.
At least in the past, he and Cadel have been together for the whole race. It would be awesome if it is just the right touch for Cadel wearing yellow in Paris.
TTT always bites Sammy
I haven’t looked into checking gaps, so I won’t say “how many more podiums he could have had”
but for sure, it’s got to be frustrating for Sammy to lose 1’00"+ every…single… team time trial because he’s on Euskaltel.
I love Euskaltel, but that’s just the reality of things. TTT really screws them over.
I think the team time trial is kinda a circus gimmick anyway.
I'm sure SamSan has to know this but I don't see him going anywhere
Disagree about the TTT though, love them!
Focus on easy first. If that's all you get, that ain't half bad - Caballo Blanco
Yes, and Really?
Sammy could move on. After all he is from Asturias so he has no Basque affiliation, but I don’t see it happening either since he recently signed a new contract until 2012.
As for the TTT, sure it’s pretty, but so are podium girls and we don’t have an event for them which influences the GC in such unbalanced ways (that may get me in trouble.)
To me, the TTT is just a measure of which teams have the most money. We could just have a wallet stage. Open it up and get a one second advantage for each 100euro bill you pull out.
Disagree
The TTT is a way of emphasizing the team aspect. It also makes for a more delicate team selection. You can’t just stack the team with climbers but you need rouleurs as well. It is also a discipline that is as much about technique as it is pure watts.
Reading CA Sørensen’s account of how Saxo prepared for the 2009 TTT it’s pretty clear how their (and some other teams) dedication to the event enables them to stay consistently good. It’s not just about good ITTers.
Also, this year I think they found a pretty ideal weight of the TTT. Short and on wide, non-technical roads made for timegains but no huge gaps or accidents.
+ many more
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi.
"If I couldn't play for the Colts, I would probably stop playing football." - Peyton Manning.
by gizzardfanny on Jul 11, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
+ a few more
"I'm sorry for all the people who worked to make the descent safe and the tifosi who went up there to watch the race but racing can't be allowed to become a circus. We're not clowns" Marco Pinotti
I disagree as well
First, if one of the most important aspects of having a discipline (such as the TTT) is that it is short and not very influential, then is it very valuable to have at all?
The point of the sport is to BE selective. If all the climbs were 2 km, (short and not very influential) then Cancellara could win the Tour. Imagine the Giro having less mountain climbs and easier ones to have “timegains, but no huge gaps or accidents”… how much more boring it would be. It’d be the Tour!
Second, with the TTT it’s the mostly rich teams that benefit from the influence of the TTT and teams like Euskaltel, Cofidis, Europcar, and Saur-Sojason that suffer. A grand, big budget team with a hugely talented roster will always help GC riders, but nowhere is it as direct an influence as the TTT.
I understand that the bell can shift slightly, by good days vs bad, but one only needs to look at the results of the TTT over a long period to see that the Big-budget teams are most often on the top-end of the board vs the small budget…. struggling down at the bottom. It adds little, and for some, like Sanchez, takes away a lot.
I like balance as in all things
Having the TT at reasonable length doesn’t diminish it’s value anymore than having a reasonable amount of TT km or mountaintop finishes does. You want the right balance between climbing & TT to make a more competitive race.
No one is saying the ITT isn’t very valuable because we don’t have 2X 65km in the TdF. It’s just a sound choice in order to make the race better.
it's a team sport
What I like about the TTT is that it really brings out the team aspect in a unique way. I get what you’re saying about Euskatel, but a. Sanchez is a star, he can go where he wants, b. Euskatel is not helpless in this regard, surely they could sign a strong TTist or two, even if (horrors!) they aren’t Basque?
It’s true that the TTT seems to benefit the rich, but should that really lead to the exclusion of an important discipline? And frankly, by this logic (it benefits the rich) you could argue that there should be no hard climbs, because only the rich teams are able to hire strong domestiques for the mountains . . . etc etc etc.
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 11, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't want to take this too far.... just honest/fun debate
Agree on the climbs, and that’s where I see the team aspect being important, BUT, less influenced by $$$$.
Again, I’m not trying to start a “Save Samu” campaign. He’s just an example. I just don’t like how the TTT makes for 1 second -5 second gaps between GC’rs on the “Mega-teams” (for lack of better term) between 13-15 GC contenders
yet…. the “Small-teams” it makes 1:00+ gaps.
I see that team strength is important, but even in the mountains, if your team is weaker it’s a detriment, but it isn’t race division between Tier A and Tier B. Ask Cadel from being alone in the mountains so often.
Most of the big name GC guys who can TT, as well as TT specialists will be out of budget range for small teams.
It’s a problem with parity more than a celebration of team selection.
I do agree with you on the parity issue, I’m a big fan of the salary cap in some of the North American sports, would be nice to see something like this in cycling, though difficult to imagine with teams coming in and out of existence every few years.
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 11, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
really? a team with Euskatel's budget couldn't afford a few cheaper or lesser TT riders?
Even people like Tuft, Malori, Flens, or Cornu? They couldn’t take Castroviejo or a few more Basques who can do a TT? My problem with the Euskies in the TTT is that they don’t even appear to have tried.
Svein Tuft not Basque?? It was his great geat great grandfather that came to Canada...
Benat Arrigortuftriagakoa…Shortened to Ben Tuft of course! :)
by Vlaanderen90 on Jul 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I know that, hence "a team with Euskaltel's budget"
and not “Euskaltel”. I was making a point about poor teams, Euskaltel’s selection policy is another thing entirely. Sorry if by transitioning to mocking Euskaltel directly in the next two sentences I confused you.
What else should be done to level the playing field ...
… to prevent the stronger team from being able to take advantage of that fact to be able to put time on a weaker team? Is it just the TTT, or are there other ways to avoid allowing the quality of the team brought to the TdF from influencing the outcome?
smaller teams?
which could also help with the overcrowding.
"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."
Who cares if richer teams do better?
It’s a commercial sport. I can’t think of a single sport where having more money doesn’t equate to a better team.
Overall, I think cycling is pretty balanced when it comes to the effects of pay.
Sanchez is the perfect example. He got 4th in the biggest race of 2010 and his team was struggling to stay in the ProTeam ranks.
At the end of the day, yes, teams with more money will probably get more results. But that’s inherent.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
I can’t think of a single sport where having more money doesn’t equate to a better team.
Well, see for example basketball and football in the US, where salary caps (no team can spend above a certain limit) means increased parity, theoretically anyways. In reality it doesn’t work this way, for various reasons – teams have chronically poor management, are located in places players don’t want to go, etc.
But one of the things that has really bothered me about certain sports, e.g. soccer, is the way the big money teams are always the best, for the simple reason that they outspend everyone else. I personally think this is a problem.
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 11, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Is it really that big of a problem in cycling though?
Cycling is really dynamic.
Who would you rather be, Tony Martin or Samuel Sanchez in the Tour? HTC is a power team, but that doesn’t mean it is the best place to win a race. Samuel Sanchez may have a crappy TTT. But he enjoys the absolute support of his squad. While Martin is doing leadouts.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
yeah true enough,
and admittedly I haven’t given the issue a whole lot of thought, could be that cycling is structured so differently that the analogies I’ve brought up don’t really apply, or only apply imperfectly.
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 11, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
heh
but HTC is not a big money team. Bad example, though your point is valid.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
there may be salary caps and luxury taxes
but only the NHL has a spending minimum. Small market teams in the NBA can spend about half what the Celtics, Heat and Lakers do in a year. If you don’t have the money to spend you can’t spend it. A sensible salary cap would probably be well above the amount that the lesser teams spend anyway and hardly help them.
does Garmin have a big budget?
I know they didn’t when they won the Giro TTT in 2008. And today, I always thought they were on the average side of budgets? They are always competitive in TTTs, so not sure if the “rich team” argument really applies.
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
good point, would be interesting to see figures, probably very easy to find, though I’m too lazy to do it ;)
this after all was why Wiggins left Garmin, isn’t it? didn’t he say something about moving to Man U from Wigan Athletic?
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 11, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Again, I think the specifics of one rider, or one team lose the bigger picture (of my point anyway)
and there will always be exceptions, because some teams, like Garmin, specifically tagert TTT. BUT, HTC is tied for 6th highest budget.
TTT team budget (average budget €9.13m of the 22 in 2011)
1.Garmin (6,5mil)
2. BMC (7,0mil)
3. SKY (11,0mil)
4. Leopard (15,0mil)
5. HTC (10,0mil)
6. Radioshack (11,0mil)
7. Rabobank (15,0mil)
The top 7 separated by 12 seconds and avg. €10.79million per team
16. Saur – Sajosan (5,0mil)
17. Lampre (7,0mil)
18. Katusha (15,0mil)
19. Movistar (8,0 mil)
20. VancanSoleil (8.5mil)
21. Cofidis (8,0mil)
22. Euskaltel (6.5mil)
Those bottom teams separated by 22 seconds, but 1 minute+ off top pace, and avg. €8.29million per team (23% less than top 7 teams) and that’s being heavily skewed by Katusha.
Of course, there are exceptions, like Garmin and Katusha, as the biggest budgets doesn’t ALWAYS mean success…. but generally speaking. And I think if you followed this trend over years it would be solidified that TTT really favors the rich teams more than other disciplines in the stages races.
What's the source for the team budget data?
I am not calling you a liar or anything. I’m just curious.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
thanks for digging up that info. very interesting
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
But there's two directions that that goes ...
… there’s whether the TTT favors the rich clubs, and also whether the rich clubs stress the TTT. Or even, the clubs that expect to be in a position to be leading the peleton will have to bring exactly the kind of riders who will be taking the longer pulls during the TTT.
Garmin and BMC show that disciplined targeting of the TTT allows a smaller budget club to ride with the richer clubs. But it takes both the targeting and the discipline.
Every time I think about that Wiggins quot
I lol.
Never use a metaphor, simile, or other figure of speech which you are used to seeing in print.
Never use a long word where a short one will do.
If it is possible to cut a word out, always cut it out.
Never use the passive where you can use the active.
Never use a foreign phrase, a scientific word, or a jargon word if you can think of an everyday English equivalent.
Break any of these rules sooner than say anything outright barbarous.
-Orwell, Politics and the English Language
www.battleredblog.com
by tehGrindCrusher on Jul 11, 2011 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
"...podium girls and we don’t have an event for them..."
Which is a damn shame!
by Seat Shifter on Jul 11, 2011 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."
I don't mind the TTT
but disagree with others below in how well in shows a team. I actually feel the TTT only shows how good your collection of individual TTists is, it almost serves as a contradiction to what it should be in my mind. For me a strong team is much more exemplified in road stages, where strength of domestiques plays a very important role. A team chasing in full harmony, or delaying when a rider of theirs is up the road, or protecting their leader. Whatever that team specializes in they will work together to achieve. When a team rides together in a TTT I see it as something they are required to do for their own benefit(except those who can drop off) while when I see guys drilling it upfront I think “now that’s some team work”. But again I don’t mind the TTT because it is aesthetically pleasing, probably because it is a bit gimmicky. A team leader shouldn’t be hurt because his workers aren’t great TTists, his TT determines how good he should do, but he should need a strong team to help him when he needs it on the road.
I like TTTs as long as they are short and don't massively effect GC
in part because strength of team already affects the race. Many of the posts on here are about how Martin and Velits are let down by the work they need to do for their team, how Kloeden’s team are damaged, and how Evans’ might not support him in the mountains.
There’s no need to also then throw in a direct disadvantage in the form of a longish TTT.
A 12k TTT is fine by me.
Getting caught behind the crash though is bigger for Samu. He only lost 55 seconds vs GC contendors in the TTT, he lost nearly 100 seconds in the crash. He wasn’t however directly involved.
Some other comments:
1) I think descending is highly overrated when it comes to GC-relevant gaps. It’s very helpful when gunning for a stage win, or in not getting caught if you dropped people on a slope, but otherwise it doesn’t help all that much. Arroyo dropped like a stone and it was impressive. But the guys behind still caught him anyway, and he didn’t catch those up front.
2) Help in the mountains is also overrated when it comes to the grinder types like Martin and Menchov, all they do is follow. Tony Martin is not about to drop the Schlecks on a steep incline. So all they need is 1 person to support and get bottles and be there to possibly ride tempo if the group shatters apart. Velits can be that for Martin. Popo might manage to be that for Kloedi (to an extent). It’s only really helpful to have strong climbers around you as a launch-pad for an attack, like Szymd launching Basso or like the other day Astana using Tiralongo to help launch Vino. But the people being discussed – Evans, Martin, Kloedi are not going to attack.
3) I think Amael Moinard is seriously underrated. Santaromita too. That team has no distractions either, all eggs in the Evans basket.
Mountain support.
Agree with just about everything (don’t mind TTT’s upto around 25kms non technical). Below stage 12 profile:
The place where the grinders could get into trouble, would be loosing almost all their support riders on the first climb on stage 12. That would leave them at risk for almost 70kms going over Tourmalet and up Luz-Arididen. Luck will play a part in getting across the line without loosing time.
You seem to have selective vision/interpretation/bias
Sanchez (and understand that he’s just an example… this isn’t some conspiracy theory that the Tour is screwing Sammy) lost between 1:12 and 1:22 (72 and 82 seconds) to the majority of the main contenders: ASchleck, BSchleck, Evans, Wiggins, Hesjedal, VDV, Vinokourov, Kloden, Horner, Leipheimer, Brajkovic, Martin and 70seconds to Gesink. (13 guys)
55 seconds was to Contador, that’s one guy. The majority of GC contenders were in the top 7 teams with nothing gained between them. But the losers lose a bunch. Why not say he only lost 25 seconds to Basso?
He lost 1:20 in the stage 1 crash delay (80 seconds). Almost 100 seconds? I see that as the same time lost in the TTT, or within five seconds of the crash…. you see that as nearly double? (55 vs almost 100)
Weird.
I still think Contador's the guy to beat.
Not totally convinced on Evans, I think Contador finds at least three minutes on him somewhere in the mountains. Would be nice to see him prove me wrong though.
I’m not totally convinced on supposed 1-2 punch of Schleck bros either, I think Frank gets dropped somewhere.
Of course all this could be moot if Contador’s knee is as bad as he says it is. According to him, Giro took more out of him than he expected.
One last point, let’s not forget how fantastic Navarro and Hernandez were in the mountains last year, they could play a very big role.
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
Contador is busy managing expectations.
Navarro and Hernandez rode in the Giro in support of Contadors win. There would probably be a questions mark there too imo.
Contador is a legend,
But he is pretty much on his own and he has a bad knee with two weeks to go. Not this year.
disagree
I think the only way to back this statement up would be to have insider info on the knee. A 1:30 deficit to his main rival with 2 weeks to go, including all the mountains and the ITT? How is it possible to say “Not this year” based on that info, or lack thereof?
I’m not saying he’s going to win, especially if there really is something to the knee. I’m saying that it’s too early to say that he’s not going to win.
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 11, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
(chuckle)
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
ha!
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 11, 2011 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
feel free to say "I told you so,"
it will take me back to my youth, i.e. to when I was about 7 ;)
To repeat, I’m not saying Contador’s going to win, I’m saying it’s too early to count him out, with both mountain ranges and ITT left. I get that he talked about the knee himself, who else would have talked about it? Bernard Hinault also talked about how bad he felt before he won L-B-L by 10 minutes.
Contador’s probably in the weakest position he’s been in at this point of the Tour for years. He’s also the best GC rider of his generation, hands down. I won’t be surprised at this point if he doesn’t win. I also won’t be surprised if he wins. A week of relatively flat riding simply doesn’t tell us much.
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 11, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
i disagree
contador was in a much worse position in 09, when his own team and especially his DS were sabotaging him from within in any possible way… and yet he still persevered and won it almost alone. Agree on most everything else, and that stage 12 will provide the clue as to his form/health. Also, any discussion relating to GT ITTing ability that doesn’t rate him near the absolute top of the GC candidates is not entirely serious.
The "legend" grows
I agree there was conspiracy against him within the team, and AC had a lot of stress to deal with especially off the bike. But AC had the better legs and all he had to do was unleash them to take command, which he did, and then the team rode for him the way it should and with great strength.
I’ll also add that stress can be a great debilitator, but to some more than others. AC has always struck me as one who deals with stress very well.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Maybe he's putting out false info
Focus on easy first. If that's all you get, that ain't half bad - Caballo Blanco
A Pro Cyclist Sandbagging?
What’s the World coming to?
"I'm sorry for all the people who worked to make the descent safe and the tifosi who went up there to watch the race but racing can't be allowed to become a circus. We're not clowns" Marco Pinotti
That's my point
People are writing him off because he looks like he is suffering and he is talking about a bad knee but maybe it’s all part of the plan. his team isn’t maybe what he hoped so he is looking to follow wheels and not have to have his team slogging away for him. Smart, very smart if that is what is in play her. Or maybe he really is hurting and his Tour is finished.
Focus on easy first. If that's all you get, that ain't half bad - Caballo Blanco
because he looked like crap
up the meh climb of Super-Besse.
Think about it: he got punked by Gilbert AND Evans.
And when he did try to respond he looked like he was seriously hurting.
I seem to recall Evans beating him pretty good up the Mur de Huy as well. As I recall, Evans wasn’t quite so strong that year when the real climbing started ;)
Agreed on Contador seeming like he’s really hurting, though. I just think that comparing the Super-Besse to the HC climbs is comparing apples and oranges. Look at Gilbert and the Schlecks at L-B-L this year. As A. Schleck said after that race, I’d need a climb of 4 or 5 km to beat Gilbert. Totally different skill set.
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 11, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Punked??
They finished with same time.
The fact that Gilbert (and Hushovd) did well on that climb is a sign that results should not be taken seriously. Not a sign to take them more seriously.
Well at least I have 1995, 2000, and 2003. Those were fun.
by dees ees en drama on Jul 11, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Was about to say the same
plus Bert didn’t even respond to Gilbert, actually his first attack even dropped Gilbert for the moment. He was staring at Andy the entire time, he didn’t get punked by anybody, he just didn’t care for them. And a “meh climb” makes him not dropping Schleck and having guys like Gilbert there far less surprising. I mean come on, it was a damn 1km climb.
Granted it's a counter-factual supposition, but it's borne out by precedent:
Contador never attacks just for shits and grins.
He attacks to win and gain time.
Most years, most races he has done both—especially on climbs like Super-Besse and Mur de Bretagne.
This year, Hushovd can keep up with him.
Repeating: MEH.
He's also stopped attacking after he didn't gain time before
and the likelihood he gains on SB is far less than a major climb
yeah I think you're reaching here RMc
I follow you when you say “he looked like he was seriously hurting.” That may very well be, and it could adversely affect his chances.
But to suggest that we can draw any conclusions from the results of these stages . . . that’s harder for me to swallow. The stages we’ve seen so far are classics-type stages – no climb over 2nd cat.! When has Contador done well at the classics? To my mind, we know nothing until we get into the longer climbs.
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 11, 2011 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions
A sore knee after a crash ...
… can be something strained, or it can be a bruise that heals before the Pyrenees, but its the talking about it openly and inviting speculation that raises suspicions on how one would set up lulling rivals on a marking Stage 12 and then upset their calculations attacking toward the end of Stage 14.
If the riding to the end of Stage 14 says sore knee, that’s when I’m not as skeptical as right now.
true,
though in retrospect the Giro was a cakewalk – incredible how he dominated that race – I’d expect that they’d have been able to save some energy, they certainly didn’t have to do too much work in the mountains in the Giro from what I saw
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 11, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we will know after stage 12 where the two support climbers stand.
Agree, it was a well crafted Giro win.
In my dreams, Tommy V for the win!
If I’m Voekler, I go in the break on stage 12 with the yellow jersey. I would love to see the resulting stand-off between Lay-O-Pard, BMC and Saxo Bank about who is going to chase on this terribly difficult day. Hopefully, they all stare at each other and Tommy gets another six minutes and keeps the jersey to Paris!
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
+1
Although, I think Tommy V has no chance, I know he will kill himself trying ……..
"Long Live Cols" - ant1
I don't think he has a chance either, I just hope he tries to get in the break on stage 12
I would love to see all these conservative GC teams have to go chase it back from him instead of him falling back from the group 10ks to the summit on the last climb.
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
yeah . . . I would love that, dream scenario! ;)
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 11, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
He would get zero breathing room
the thing we often don’t see in the early coverage is big guns actually going for it and teams immediately chasing them down.
Hey, you know this guy, Philippe Gilbert?
He’s gonna try to keep up with the bigs in the mountains. His words! He. Crazy dude. Love it.
I just don't understand why Gilbert couldn't do this
at least no worse than a Cunego, Leipheimer or Vande Velde. Those guys always seem to have GC ambitions. It’s not like Gilbert is 1.92m and 82kg like Boonen.
He’s in 9th now. Why couldn’t he finish top ten? Or aim for Podium?
Because he trains (very hard) to optimize
the specific characteristics that allows him to dominate the Ardennes-type races and the short sharp climbs. That shouldn’t be mistaken for allround fitness to do high mountain stages and recovery over three weeks.
It's like J-Rod
When reporters asked him if he was going to focus on time trialing after his awful Vuelta TT, his answer was no. Time trial training would take the snap out of his legs that makes him what he is.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
I understand that
I’m just saying that he has won the Ardenees races already. I also don’t see sign that he would be worse than a Cunego at GC.
Why not go for it? I have no reason to think Gilbert couldn’t hang with the bigs in the mountains.
If he blows up, he blows up…. big deal? But he should try.
Cunego has been pretty bad at GC the last few years
Although he looks better this year (so far) than he has in a while. Why should he give up being a favorite in almost any classic he wants to (hopefully) be Haimar Zubeldia? We were having a discussion the other day where many people agreed he was the best cyclist in the world right now, why give that up to be an average GC rider when you are already 29 and it already took you years to reach your potential in your specialty?
Yeah he does, a green jersey
rest up, sprint on flat days, drop tons of time and get in a break with the sprint point after some climbs. He is only deluding himself if he thinks he can, without any training in the high mountains, all of a sudden climb them magically better. Green is way more important than finishing 19th.
Gilbert will know after 1 mountain stage if he can hang around.
That will not kill the green jersey prospects imo.
This is a good point that I didn't consider
but their are only 2 true sprint stages left after the mountains.
Montpellier and Paris. Someone like Cav could only make up ~90pts if Gilbert gets zero and Cav wins both. (I guess there are Intermediates as well, but…)
Gilbert leads Cav by 64 pts right now. Going climbing will probably only secure the Green, more than threaten it.
Stage to Gap
Gilbert owns it already.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Intermediates ...
AFAICT, not behind Cat 2 or higher:
Stages 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18, 21
Behind a Cat 2: Stage 14
Behind an HC: Stage 19
Some of those first set are bumpier than others. Even if there is a five man break, the difference between best of the rest and missing out is around 10pts, which would be 90points in intermediate sprints not masked by the higher climbs. If that simple arithmetic draws a serious fight for those points, the average haul will, of course, be much smaller.
Given that, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Gilbert actually launch his proclaimed climbing adventure in Stage 14, where there are 20 intermediate points hiding behind a Cat2 and where a lot of the positions could be expected to be soaked up by climbers with no Green Jersey aspirations.
Don't forget the end of stage 16
PhilGil could get some points there as well. A nice, medium mountain stage. I’m not saying he’ll win, but suppose 3 breakaways survive and PhilGil is still in the peloton. I feel like he’s the only one who would even challenge the sprint.
Well at least I have 1995, 2000, and 2003. Those were fun.
by dees ees en drama on Jul 12, 2011 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh damn
Chris already said the same thing, and sounded way cooler.
Well at least I have 1995, 2000, and 2003. Those were fun.
by dees ees en drama on Jul 12, 2011 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Brevity
is the something of awesome. Or something.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 12, 2011 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh No!! It's the call of the Yelow Siren - Resist!
Someone please show him what happens to racers like him when they start thinking that they can be great for 3 weeks and ’Transform" into a GC rider. This never ends well.
Just spinning the pedals in the hills of Western Maryland
Planning your season around the Tour GC may be a bad idea.
But you can hardly say that Gilbert has foresaken focusing on his strengths this year.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
I'm reacting to to the inevitable 2012 Tour focused schedule
In hopes that its not followed.
Just spinning the pedals in the hills of Western Maryland
Plus, he's a guy who lives to fill in the blank spots on his resumé.
So next year leaves RVV, maybe have a go at PR, and then win the worlds (if he doesn’t this year).
He hasn't signed up yet
as far as I know. But he also wants the World Tour n°1 spot at the end of the year (didn’t know anyone cared about that).
Would you trade Gilbert's rest of season if he had a 90% of winning (only) the yellow jersey at the Tour?
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
I love this place.
"I'm sorry for all the people who worked to make the descent safe and the tifosi who went up there to watch the race but racing can't be allowed to become a circus. We're not clowns" Marco Pinotti
all over again...
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 11, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
you dropped a decimal place or two ...
… give up the rest of his season if he had a 0.9% chance of winning only the maillot jeune?
In a word, no.
If pigs had wings they could fly ..
… if they weren’t afraid of heights.
I don’t reckon Contador goes out with a 90% chance of winning, so barring magic pixie dust (undetected at that, as MPD is a specified item), there’s no 90% chance of winning the tour on offer.
only problem with this is that it might not be the best green jersey strategy. Then again in most of these stages he’ll probably be the only green contender anywhere near the front. Go Phil, bring home polka dots too!
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 11, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
who is a poor man's Sean Kelly? Gilbert?
Focus on easy first. If that's all you get, that ain't half bad - Caballo Blanco
AC possibly sandbagging...really?
This idea is always popping up around here as if it’s some ingenious strategy that a rider might be playing on his opponents, like Cadel is at the dinner table saying: “Pass me a second helping of that will ya, Berto says his right knee is injured. And pass the champagne over here”. Or we’ll get to the first real mountain, and AC takes off after riding with the leaders for a bit, and no one reacts because Andy reassures everyone else that his knee will give out in a kilometer or two and they’ll reel him back in and then drop him. Am I missing something with this silly notion of sandbagging or is this just for fun.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
If you want something badly enough
You’ll pay very close attention to seemingly innocuous details. Just the off chance that it could make a difference of a few seconds.
Well at least I have 1995, 2000, and 2003. Those were fun.
by dees ees en drama on Jul 12, 2011 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Of course it's a possibility
Do you honestly think that AC would want anyone to actually know he had a bad knee? I don’t. I think he’s purposely putting out misinformation and he’s trying to take the pressure of himself and/or his team. Maybe he is hurting. He is definitely tired. But maybe he knows his team isn’t up to snuff due to the Giro and he’s trying to take some of the load off of them and use other teams to do a big portion of the work. I said this same thing further up the page. It isn’t ingenious but it is nonetheless a valid strategy and happens all the time.
Focus on easy first. If that's all you get, that ain't half bad - Caballo Blanco
"I think he's purposely putting out misinformation" ... pics and all of acupuncture treated knee? really?
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
I don't know that its necessary to put out misinformation ...
… the information put out has not been definitive, but is more than enough to drive speculation.
This is the real GC list
Yes, this list is the “virtual GC list.” No one is considering the time gap that Voeckler has on the field. The true GC list is important for who wears the jearsey from day-to-day, but the contenders ony worry about the relative difference between only the contenders. That is why Voeckler was allowed to ride out and claim Yellow. Good for him.
One side note – Oscar Pereiro. He was not a contender and allowed to ride 30 minutes in front and claim a large lead. He lost it or so it seemed, but no one was racing to target his second place time and when they retroactively awarded Pereiro the Yellow two years later, the other contenders were not allowed another mountain or time trial to challenge him. This was a glitch in the system, but the winners list shows a Yellow for Pereiro never less.
Legitimate Contender
Include Luis Leon Sanchez as a legitimate contender. He is not far behind Voeckler and I’m sure he will wear the yellow jersey after the 12th lap. He could climb mountain passes. He could descend far better than the Schlecks and in fact, he has beaten Contador in the Spanish individual time trial championship before the Tour. Furthermore, when the rough gets going and the going gets rough, expect the Spanish Armada to connive. The Spanish Armada is composed of Contador-Samuel Sanchez-Luis Leon Sanchez. Last year, it was Samuel Sanchez who helped Contador extending more gap over Andy Schleck during a downhill drive. Take note that after the chaingate going to the summit, Alberto’s gap over Andy was only 9 seconds. Going downhilI, it grew to 39 seconds through the daredevil initiative of Samuel Sanchez pacing Alberto.
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