Stage 12 Preview: Welcome to the Mountains
by Willj on Jul 13, 2011 11:39 AM EDT
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Welcome to the Pyrénées!
Six of the next eight Tour de France stages are in the mountains. And stage 12 is the first of four gigantic mountain-top finish stages (12, 14, 18, 19) in this hillier than usual Tour de France.
First on the menu: Three huge climbs including the Tour's usual annual visit up the legendary Col du Tourmalet as well as a challenging final climb to Luz-Ardiden. In 2003, Luz-Ardiden played host to one of the more exciting stages in recent history. Think Armstrong, Mayo, musettes, crash, Ullrich, and Hamilton (as acting patron?) - more below.
Stage 12 is also Bastille Day. So, as required by French law, every French rider will attack at least once - regardless of how pointless it is.
We at Podium Cafe voted this the 4th hardest stage of the 2011 Tour (In many other years, it would have been the Queen stage). After the jump, let's take a closer look at each of the three climbs.
It would be more accurate to say that the 2011 TdF mountains start half way though stage 12. The sprint teams may get one more chance to play lead-out lottery at the mid-point sprint (119 kms).
But after that? This Tour de France is heading up.
Profile from official TdF site
Let's look at the three climbs:
La Hourquette d'Ancizan (Category 1)
Hourquette comes from an old gascon word hurketɵ, derived from the latin furca (fork). It is sometimes used in the Pyrénées instead of "Col" (mountain pass). Ancizan is the town down below. So this is the Col d'Ancizan.
Tour de France History: This will be its first ever Tour appearance.
This little known road is just south of Col d'Aspin - which has appeared 70 times in the TdF - usually in combination with Col du Tourmalet. The descent of La Hourquette d'Ancizan will end by joining the very bottom of the west side of Aspin, before approaching Tourmalet.
This intriguing "Aspin substitute" is both steeper and higher than Col d'Aspin. I have no idea the road quality (hopefully the local mayor received a "repaving budget" last year), but probably a very narrow road.
Col du Tourmalet - East side (Hors Categorie)
What can I say say that hasn't been said about the most used climb in Tour History (77th ascent in 2011). I'll let someone else take a shot:
Eddie Merckx: "It’s the most legendary Col in the Pyrénées. I always succeeded here because it was long enough to make my adversaries suffer"
This east side has more steeper stretches than the west side (after an easy start). It passes through La Mongie ski station about 5 kms from the summit - and then winds up the ski slopes to the summit.
via flickr
Tour de France History: 2010 was the hundred year anniversary of the first appearance of Tourmalet in the TdF.
Similar to Col du Galibier this year, in 2010 Tourmalet appeared twice in the TdF, including a much-hyped mountain-top finish "won" by Andy Schleck -- with the same time as Contador -- in what many saw as an unsatisfying stage.
For more history and a list of first-over-Tourmalet for every stage since 1910: see here.
Below: The Tour route will turn onto the lower slopes of Tourmalet after skipping roughly the first five easy kms shown on the profile below.
Luz-Ardiden (Hors Categorie)
Luz-Ardiden is a medium-sized, purpose-built (in the 60's) ski station above Luz-St-Saveur (in the valley between Aubisque and Tourmalet).
Tour de France History: It has appeared seven previous times - first in 1985 - always as a mountain top finish.
Most of us will remember Its last appearance in 2003. On the lower slopes Lance Armstrong fell after getting his bike caught on a fan's musette, also causing a carrot - Iban Mayo - to fall.
Ex-Armstrong teammate Tyler Hamilton (they were friends once!) played patron forcing Jan Ullrich and others to slow somewhat. Next, Armstrong just looked super-human in one of the more amazing wins of his career.
Other winners at Luz-Ardiden: Delgado ('85), Lauritzen ('87), Cubino ('88), Indurain ('90), Virenque ('94) and, Laiseka (2001).
A Final Word
This stage isn't just any old mountain-top-finish stage. It's three huge climbs, one after the other. A hugely difficult day.
I suspect we'll have a far better idea of who might win the Tour at the end of this stage (or at least a few more names that are no longer in contention).
Feel free to use the comments for your stage predictions. Enjoy!
Here is the current general classification.
Top Photo: Luz Ardiden. Author: Tim Kops
Permission: Creative Commons license
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not starting tomorrow according to twitter
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
by umwolverine on Jul 13, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Too bad they are ..eeeh... easy to tell apart
otherwise they could swap places at this point in the race. Romain out, Brice in.
sounds like a great loop to ride
up the aspin one side and then up the hourquette the other and back to where you started. I had always noticed that road next to aspin and thought i should check that out one day.
yep that's a loop to do
are you in the neighbourhood? You were considering ….
"Long Live Cols" - ant1
yeah
all hell has broken loose in yeehoo land. I think one my earlier plans was to drive there tonight. And actually things have worked out to where that is a possibility but aint gonna happen. I will probably get over there after the tour has left. But i want to ride that loop and the tourmalet ardiden combination.
I bet La Hourquette d'Ancizan will
be deserted when you ride it. Just you and the Tour chalked roads …. fun
"Long Live Cols" - ant1
A word about the Hourquette
It’s much harder then Aspin, the roads on the side they’re climbing are narrow, not unlike the Port de Bales. They’ve been relaid recently. The descent is relatively easy, not too tricky, and after passing through a valley where the roads flattens out a bit, it rejoins the bottom portion of the Aspin descent after you come out of the forest.
D I R K H O F F M A N M O T O R H O M E S
by bradBordeaux on Jul 14, 2011 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Bertie says thank you.
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi.
"If I couldn't play for the Colts, I would probably stop playing football." - Peyton Manning.
The Giro says to Bertie: "Remember me?"
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Unlike the Giro, Bertie actually did say something like
“thank God the mountains are here now” in a Tv interview when I posted it.
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi.
"If I couldn't play for the Colts, I would probably stop playing football." - Peyton Manning.
by gizzardfanny on Jul 13, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Bertie addresses the Giro as "my love"?
TMI
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
If they ride up the tourmalet instead of racing up it he definitely has a chance.
Last time he had yellow he lost less than 3 minutes to Armstrong on Plateau de Beille (always a harder day IMHO). He will definitely pull a Captain HTFU and ride his Arse off for the whole day, cause a French cyclist in Yellow on Bastille Day is Awesome.
'When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning' - Dr. Reiner Knizia
by bought with blood on Jul 13, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I think I need some of your drugs
He doesn’t have a prayer. But I have no doubt he will go down valiently and when he pops it will be spectacularly tragic.
and
he’ll get the combativity prize. Five seconds after they strip off the yellow.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 13, 2011 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions
watch Samu on the Tourmalet
He really needs time on the others, and is there a better descender? I can seem him attacking either going up, and stretching the lead on the descent, or attacking on the descent. Most of the other favorites don’t have to make up time tomorrow, the could wait. Samu I think has a more desperate situation.
I don't know if Samu has the cojones to pull of a Nibali. It is such an all or nothing move,
and I am not sure the potential benefits outweigh the definite costs.
cost 1 is an attack on the top of the Tourmalet plus the risky death defying drop at breakneck speed, using much energy.
cost 2 is a 14 KM ascent all on his lonesome with Frandy, Clenbutador, Evans, et al chasing. Low probaility of success, high probability of pain and suffering which could cost you a packet of time.
Benefit if it all works you, you become and instant Legend, and you may put 30-40 seconds into the rest of the contenders, I don’t see him being able to dance away and not lose any of the advantage he got descending on the climb. Is the risk of losing minutes worth the potential 30 second gain?
I doubt the math works out.
Riders don’t care about becoming Legends they just want to win and do their jobs as best they can without dying.
'When playing a game, the goal is to win, but it is the goal that is important, not the winning' - Dr. Reiner Knizia
by bought with blood on Jul 13, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
When was the last time we saw Samu the great descender? Three years ago?
Anyway, finally some real climbing. I thought it would never come.
by blackswangreen on Jul 13, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
tourmalet descent isn't super technical
not a good one to try and get time on
by thebongolian on Jul 13, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I so heart creative commons.
That’s a beauty of a photo up top.
I really like the Tourmalet-Luz Ardiden double, wish they did it more often. For me, it’s almost as fun as the Galibier-Alpe d’Huez. Almost ;)
Usually attacks on Tourmalet
Often on the Luz Ardiden stage, the main attack is on le Tourmalet, and they are in 1s and 2s in La Mongie.
In 1985, Lemond and Roche dropped Hinault at La Mongie (but did NOTHING after La Mongie, never got the lead beyond 1:15)
Ullrich tried to drop Armstrong in 2001 and 2003 on Tourmalet, but failed both times
As an aside, why has there not yet been an MTF at the Pic du Midi? Just need to make the turn at the Tourmalet, and climb to the top of the mountain. I beleive it would be a right turn this year
+1
As an aside, why has there not yet been an MTF at the Pic du Midi?
The quality of the road is a little gnarly at times above Tourmalet. But it would be the hardest climb in Tour history by far (including Tourmalet) …. amazing.
A friend did it in 2009 and took some superb photos. The post is French but the pics speak from themselves.
"Long Live Cols" - ant1
Über-polkatdots?
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi.
"If I couldn't play for the Colts, I would probably stop playing football." - Peyton Manning.
by gizzardfanny on Jul 13, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Holy crap
what a great shot! http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2701/4109597291_969fccae83_o.jpg
"On paper, your team is awesome." -- Pigeons on my WVDS team, and life in general.
He is your son, right?
"On paper, your team is awesome." -- Pigeons on my WVDS team, and life in general.
hehe
We rode together once – very nice young guy.
Only a true Col chaser could meet at the bottom of Alpe d’Huez and completely ignore it. He took me over some crazy non-paved cols …. he’s a good route planner.
"Long Live Cols" - ant1
nice trails.
"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."
+1 and thanks, awesome photo.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Pic du Midi
probably has no space for the whole Tour stage finish circus up top. And isn’t it a gravel road? But it does have a télépherique. The observatory looks awesome on photos.
"On paper, your team is awesome." -- Pigeons on my WVDS team, and life in general.
If they cannot finish at the summit
Why not the Col de Laquets, a couple of hundred meters below the summit
In any event, Pic du Midi would probably be in Finestre land in terms of difficulty. After turning off Tourmalet, there is only about 5K of climbing to the summit.
Here is a profile of Laquets, though from Luz San Sauveur
http://www.zanibike.net/altimetria/4658/Francia/salita_Pic+du+Midi+-+Luz+Saint+Sauveur.aspx
good god!
What a ride that would be. But yes, not very caravan-friendly.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 13, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Something I hadn't thought of before today
Often first mountainday is soft-ish, a long flattish ride to a MTF. This is a beast of a first day. With many having a hard time as it is to adapt from the flats to the mountain-riding we could see some big-time suffering.
The stage looks a lot like one of my favorite stages ever. Stage 10 in 2000 Dax-Lourdes/Hautacam
That was a first mountainstage too and with rain and mist it was horrific. It was the stage that convinced LA that he needed to stack his team with spanish climbers since his whole support was shelled somewhere on the lower/middle slopes of the Aubisque. Tomorrow could be as good as that with any luck.
http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/results/2000/jul00/tdfrance00/stages/tdfrance00st10r.shtml
"On paper, your team is awesome." -- Pigeons on my WVDS team, and life in general.
Me likey these time gaps
Ullrich at 4 min
Pantani at 6 min
Vino at 10 min
No group bigger than 3 in the top 4.
I can only dream of such chaos for tomorrow !
by FrenchKheldar on Jul 13, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
One of the Kelme Otxoa's won (the one who survived the nasty car crash)
his shorts piss- and rain-stained, a minute or so ahead of Armstrong.
Voeckler
well, ok, that’s not terribly likely, but I’d applaud it…
It would be similar to a degree
But of course Armstrong had won in 99 so not exactly the same.
You don't just need Armstrong
You need the plucky basque escape artist Otxoa (random Euskie) the belgian superdomestique Mattan in the breakaway (Vanendaert?). The strong attack group with Moreau & Beloki (Coppel&Intxausti?). The polka dot chaser Virenque (Moncoutie?) and the belgian supertalent Vandenbroucke abandoning early and starting his downward spiral into misery (let’s not put a name here).
Now you almost have a full cast.
Coppel would have to raise form
No? But I get your point.
Anyway, point taken. A classic stage like that would be well, classic.
don't forget the pantani to initiate an attack
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
I propose a PdC meet up at a 2012 climb next spring where we re-enact a famous mountain stage
"Long Live Cols" - ant1
+1
"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."
Phil and Sminer shoulder to shoulder on the Puy de Dome
Zoe Rochelle’s kid snags Drew’s handlebars on Luz Ardiden, Sui Juris rides off but Chris rides up with a broken collarbone and neutralizes the stage,
The possibilities are endless.
and lots of 'colle bidon'
is that the right spelling? You are only allowed in the car if you are good at magic bidon and on the go seat and brake adjustments.
I volunteer to abandon at the bottom of the final climb
Jens! Voigt puts the 'laughter' in 'manslaughter'
yes
apparently you’ve been training for this too.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 13, 2011 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions
wrong year. that was 2001 up l'alpe
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
Intxausti has left the race
Arroyo instead perhaps.
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Jul 13, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but the starlist didn't look promising
Maybe if they claim Rui Costa or Amador.
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Jul 13, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
or the colombian uran uran
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
well played
"I'm sorry for all the people who worked to make the descent safe and the tifosi who went up there to watch the race but racing can't be allowed to become a circus. We're not clowns" Marco Pinotti
Fine then.
Gorka Izagirre it is.
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi.
"If I couldn't play for the Colts, I would probably stop playing football." - Peyton Manning.
by gizzardfanny on Jul 13, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
José Maria Jimenez (let's not put a name here either)
finished third an almost matched Lance’s speed at the end.
Jens, did you fail to notice Intxausti leaving the race with a broken arm?
Or should I wail and cry some more?
"First you have to be cool, after you are cool then you can be strong" -- Davide Appollonio
by Albertina on Jul 13, 2011 7:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
nice profile
Aubisque or Tourmalet (interchangeable) as lead ups to either Hautacam or Luz Ardiden (interchangeable) ….. is a much better idea than the last century of linking Aubisque and Tourmalet and then descending somewhere
"Long Live Cols" - ant1
A really strong team could seriously damage 90% of the peloton on the first climb
if they wanted to. Thats the scenario I am hoping for. About 20-25 riders making the first cut with 70kms to go.
a smyzd or a dani navarro
Is all it takes to shred the peloton to 20 guys….if their leaders want that, off course.
In search of a new tagline.
by perezbike on Jul 13, 2011 1:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
agree, the firepower is available. I hope a team tries, but in reality most probably
fear the consequence and will want to ride safe until the last climb. Boo.
I predict
Andy Schleck and Contador minutes clear of the other leaders.
Out on a limb I know . . .
Damn, I'll need to get home early tomorrow.
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi.
"If I couldn't play for the Colts, I would probably stop playing football." - Peyton Manning.
so, whereas live coverage starts tomorrow at 12.30 local, per the time schedule the feed zone is btwn 14.00-14.18, and the sprintermediate btwn 14.28-14.50. then it should get interesting.
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
Hmm, don't think much will happen on the first cat 1 climb.
So if one could be home from work around Sainte-Marie de Campan, one should get the big battle. That should be around 15.30-16.00.
It might be managable, sort of, maybe, hopefully.
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi.
"If I couldn't play for the Colts, I would probably stop playing football." - Peyton Manning.
by gizzardfanny on Jul 13, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
What's the Latin word for "spork" smarty pants?
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
I beg to differ... mea sequiter
Hourquette comes from an old gascon word hurketɵ, derived from the latin furca (fork). It is sometimes used in the Pyrénées instead of “Col” (mountain pass). Ancizan is the town down below. So this is the Col d’Ancizan
.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Hehe
I assume i win any col geek award. But i seek to educate all south carolinians
"Long Live Cols" - ant1
At least, the 2 or 3 of us paying attention.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
i guess we need to know what gascon for spoon is
merge the two.
"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."
Ahh, missed that little mini-graph in there...
…my apologies, good sir.
sigh
Never guess at spelling when you’re around, huh?
ted’s this guy before he got his new job.
"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."
Meh
Myself, I like to use accepted spelling but I guess I’m just not adventurous.
"On paper, your team is awesome." -- Pigeons on my WVDS team, and life in general.
No, I'm just lazy...
…and I have not studied Latin at any point in my life. For shame, I know…
Badass [Ti] Cocleurca
The whole thing needs to be Latin don’t you think? Badass in latin?
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Weather for stage 12?
Anybody with info. There are some really tough descents.
here’s the weather for Luz-St-Saveur. It’s the base of Luz-Ardiden. Looks fine.
http://weather.yahoo.com/france/midi-pyrenees/luz-st.-sauveur-12665965/
"Long Live Cols" - ant1
From letour.fr:
Meteo
Cloudy in the morning. Sunny intervals late in the morning and at start. In the afternoon, larger sunny intervals in the beginning of the stage before the mountain. Generally, the mountains miss the sunny spells with further cloud. Fog patches are likely above 1200 m altitude. At the end of the stage and for the passes, scattered showers are likely. Winds : Light westerly wind turning northerly at 10/15 km/h in the Pyrenees and for the finish. Temperatures : Lowest temperature : 14 to 15 degrees Highest Temperature : 22 à 23 degrees At start : 17 to 18 degrees At 1000 m : 13 à 15 degrees At 1500 m altitude : 8 to 9 degrees At 2000 m altitude : 6 degrés
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi.
"If I couldn't play for the Colts, I would probably stop playing football." - Peyton Manning.
by gizzardfanny on Jul 13, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Note:
At the end of the stage and for the passes, scattered showers are likely.
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi.
"If I couldn't play for the Colts, I would probably stop playing football." - Peyton Manning.
by gizzardfanny on Jul 13, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I will be flying over these mountains as they race up them.
On my way to a sweet, sweet vacation. I’m going to look out the window to see if I can spot anyone.
Never use a metaphor, simile, or other figure of speech which you are used to seeing in print.
Never use a long word where a short one will do.
If it is possible to cut a word out, always cut it out.
Never use the passive where you can use the active.
Never use a foreign phrase, a scientific word, or a jargon word if you can think of an everyday English equivalent.
Break any of these rules sooner than say anything outright barbarous.
-Orwell, Politics and the English Language
www.battleredblog.com
by tehGrindCrusher on Jul 13, 2011 2:38 PM EDT reply actions
If you cam spot anyone,
You should immediately move to the rear opposite side of the plane and strap in!
This stage looks awesome on paper, my only worry is all the GC favorites will save their energy and teammates for saturday or sunday and not risking blowing up on the first of 3 consecutive mountain stages. Other things which should prevent a huge selection:
BMC doesnt look like they want yellow yet
HTC should control things until the intermediate sprint to defend green.
"Have you ever played?" "Yes, I was a goalie"
I don't think they'll save it for Sunday.
That’s a flat stage to Montpellier.
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi.
"If I couldn't play for the Colts, I would probably stop playing football." - Peyton Manning.
by gizzardfanny on Jul 13, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Not all GC riders
use the Schleck formula of racing. This stage is more suited for attacks before the final climb than any other, since Tourmalet is so close to the finish. May not get the same degree of early selection as you will over Agnello, but there should still be one on Tourmalet
Since Contador is feeling better, I wonder if we will see him life the pace from a long way out, as he did on the big giro stage, merely to shell all of the Schleck domestiques.
Cadel will not get yellow. He has never got over the high mountains with the leaders. Don’t look for old man Cadel to suddenly find his climbing legs.
Maybe LLS to take the jersey, if he doesn’t get dropped on Tourmalet
I would buy the idea of LLS in yellow after the stage, especially if eveybody
waits until the final climb to attack.
similar worries
Pretty confident none of the major guys will attack before at least 2/3rds of the way up Luz Ardiden, just doesn’t happen anymore in early mountain stages at the tour.
Hoping we a least get to see some up and comers and aging vets throw some punches, rattle some cages, mix some metaphors.
by whistlingmountain on Jul 13, 2011 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
don't gain time at the top of Luz Ardiden
Nobody has gained time at the top of Luz Ardiden. Lemond and Roche didn’t (though they also had maybe the worst clutch climb in TDF history), Delgado gained much of his time early, No big gaps in 1994, 2001 little time was gained at the top, 2003 Armstrong gained all of his time before the final 5km
no argument here
I don’t think we’ll see big gaps between the gc guys tomorrow, just some light punches to see if anyone’s form is truly off.
by whistlingmountain on Jul 13, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
would be completely different
from every other Luz Ardiden stage that crossed the Tourmalet. The riders have never waited for the final climb.
I can see the Schlecks trying that, as I do not think they would survive a long distance race. But the Bassos, Contadors, and others may not be quite as accommodating
I agree, they will attack
to see if Contador and his team are still a little vulnerable after the multiple crashes. Liqui, BMC and LT all came through pretty well so they will be keen to have a look.
that's just not the way of the modern tour de france
as they descend toward Ardiden together
by whistlingmountain on Jul 14, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Best/Worst Case tomorrow
From a viewer’s perspective, best thing we can see tomorrow is a bunch of heavyweights slugging it out across multiple climbs.
Worst case seems to be the teams riding the stage but not drilling each other. In this case, how could some of the non-powerhouse teams animate the race?
by Chester Copperpot on Jul 13, 2011 2:58 PM EDT reply actions
I didn't realise how tough Luz-Add was
Until I climbed. Maybe it was post Tourmalet/Hautacam legs but I’ve never suffered on a bike like that. I would not fancy it freezing cold after a 20 minute descent.
A note on the weather, this is my fourth night here and there’s only been one clear day. I’ve seen every kind of forecast, but I’d guess if it’s anything like today then the coverage will be tough. Most of the afternoon visibility has been 30-50 metres to even see a car headlight.
You must be excited for tomorrow
(i am excited for you)
Sounds like you’re doing very well. Great climbs are no fun if you don’t suffer a little. :)
Enjoy
"Long Live Cols" - ant1
Interview with Riis on Danish TV.
Q: How much seperation do you think we’ll on this first mountain stage?
A: A lot!
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi.
"If I couldn't play for the Colts, I would probably stop playing football." - Peyton Manning.
please attack on the first mountain.
Thats 2 big descents to put time into bad descenders. Pretty please.
I bet we get the last 8k of luz and thats it.
by mr. rogers on Jul 13, 2011 3:56 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
don't worry, Voeckler will.
"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."
agree, we could have a scenaio where three great climbs are wasted.
Reminds me a bit of the racing on parts of the TdS route this year. Ultra slow-mo for large parts of the tough mountain stages with a bit of action at the end of each stage.
Memories...
of Greg LeMond threatening to punch a reporter in the face…
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 13, 2011 4:22 PM EDT reply actions
I hope the Frenchies set it on fire
Remember Criterium International and the “impressive” Saur train? Look, for Coppel to do something at this Tour is gonna take something monumental. With all the time he has lost already, I think the pressure is off. This is the only objective for Saur this season, they’ve said it since February. They might just try to blow it open and see what happens.
Voeckler might even attack if he is in yellow. He doesn’t care if he goes down in flames, but I think he would enjoy being in the lead, on Bastille Day with the yellow jersey. Since there is no clear leader in the peloton, maybe nobody will bother chasing him down in the beginning. Or if they do, it will cause damage…
Moncoutié might want that stage if he is in shape and he should go in the early brake. I think a strategy for the big teams will be to put their number 2’s in the break early to see what happens. Less risky than trying to blow everything off in the Hourquette… If Leopard doesn’t do anything with Frank, Fuglsang and Monfort within 5 minutes of yellow, they deserve all the crap they get from (most of) us. Ten Dam for Rabobank, Leipheimer for the Shack, etc…
Anyway, I’m getting way too excited about this stage, I need to stop here !
Oh, yes!
Hilarious, of course, but so informative, too.
by KnittingGene on Jul 14, 2011 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Gerrans, Gautier, Gerdemann and Hesjedal
i’d fancy a couple or three of those in the breakaway.
Be interesting to see how much Gesink’s recovered too along with Berti’s knee.
by Jonny_Red on Jul 13, 2011 5:50 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
scratch that lol...
bastille day, tailor made for a Chav attack surely??
by Jonny_Red on Jul 13, 2011 5:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
2003... he did it then
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
So the last winner on Luz Ardiden was Basque.
Carrots, this is it! Egoi in the break please, and then do a Nieve! So sad Benat couldn’t get this far…he was so excited about the ‘home’ stages :(
"First you have to be cool, after you are cool then you can be strong" -- Davide Appollonio
by Albertina on Jul 13, 2011 7:33 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
French going on a rampage, countered by Euskies going on a rampage...
…that would be fun.
no. the last winner on luz ardiden was armstrong (2003).
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
Oh, I'm an idiot! I totally forgot about 2003!
Well anyway, they can emulate Laiseka :)
"First you have to be cool, after you are cool then you can be strong" -- Davide Appollonio
by Albertina on Jul 14, 2011 5:38 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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