Tour de France Stage 17 Preview!
by Jen See on Jul 19, 2011 6:50 PM EDT
in Tour de France
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The Tour de France pays a visit to Italy during this up and down stage 17 from Gap to Pinerolo. It's a hilly affair, as the Tour crosses the western Alps into Piedmont. Five categorized climbs enliven the proceedings, and the final climb of the day summits with eight kilometers left to race.
That's a pretty perfect launch pad for a stage-winning attack, right there. It's also an opportunity for a good descender to make a dash for time in the overall classification. Certainly, Cadel Evans showed to perfection how to play that game on the road to Gap on Tuesday.
The stage rolls out over mostly flat terrain for around 70 kilometers. Then, it's a series of four climbs all lined up in a nice row. The col de Montegenèvre and the climb to Sestrières are the most difficult at 7.9 and 11.1 kilometers respectively. The average gradients are in the 6% range.
These are not the monsters of the high mountains, the Giants like the col du Galibier and the Alpe d'Huez still to come in this Tour de France. But the climbs on this stage should rule out the chances of the sprinters and if one of the bigs is on a bad day, he will not be smiling.
From the summit of Sestrière, it's a long gradual descent to Villar Perosa. We're in Italy now, by the way. The Tour de France crosses the border just after the summit of the col de Montegenèvre. The stage runs downhill for almost 50 kilometers before the final climb of the day begins outside Villar Perossa.
The final climb of the day, the Côte de Pramartino (Colle Pra Martino, to the locals), climbs 6.7 kilometers at an average gradient of 6%. It stairsteps, so that average gradient is not especially helpful. This climb is very Italian. The steepest sections hit 16%. That'll leave a mark. This is Contador country, and certainly there will be attacking. From the summit of the Pramartino, it's 8 kilometers of stupid steep descending to the finish. Boom! There you are. Andy Schleck probably won't like this stage finish very much.
Like Tuesday's stage, this stage to Pinerolo looks made for the breakaway riders to go all the way. Was Sylvain Chavanel out the back on the final climb on Tuesday because he was tired? Or, was the French National Champion saving his legs for a big day out on Wednesday? Certainly, Wednesday's stage will suit a rider like Chavanel who can force a selection on the final climb and rail the descent into Pinerolo. The French teams are still looking for their first stage win in this year's Tour, though Thomas Voeckler's spirited defense of the Maillot Jaune has given France much to celebrate. Expect to see a big breakaway with some serious power go up the road early on Wednesday.
Will the bigs ride for it like they did on the road to Gap? With two mountain top finishes and the time trial still to come, they might choose to sit. But Alberto Contador trails Cadel Evans by 1:57, Fränk Schleck by 1:53, and Andy Schleck by :39. Both Schlecks have shown their vulnerable on the fast, tricky descents. It's hard to imagine Alberto Contador won't take advantage of their weakness. That final climb looks made to order for a big move.
And still, Thomas Voeckler sits in the lead, in a thoroughly surprising twist in this year's Tour story. Voeckler holds 1:45 over Cadel Evans, who maybe more than any of the other favorites is not taking Voeckler for granted. The French rider has said he will crack in the Alps, but the smart rider won't listen to the talk. The Tour de France is won on the road, not in the post-race interviews. Contador needs 3:42 to bring back Voeckler. That time gap could melt away like the snow under a summer sun in the high mountains. But the time, it grows short.
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I think we find out what Bert's expectations are.
If he is gunning for first he may have learned from today that teasing out Evans before a downhill finish could mean he loses more time to him.
But if he is just trying to gain time on the Schlecks, we may see a repeat of today.
Now, a real cheeky move would be to attack on the cat 1 and try to pick up time on both descents. A guy can dream, right?
At this point, Contador probably wants to continue to take some more time
on others in the top 6-7. If 1 or 2 can sit on his wheel, so be it. The big battle will come anyway on the two big mountains stages.
As someone pointed out on Feltet
- this is the descent from Pramartino: salite.ch
Watch for Evans to try and take yellow tomorrow I think
He had really big psychological win today. He has played this puncheurs tour beautifully and won it on the classics stages. He just has to mark everyone in the high mountains. Like I said in week one, I am not convinced this tour will be won in the high mountains, just lost there. If he doesn’t crack, he has it.
"Just has to mark everyone in the highmountains"
Just? Pretty big “just.”
That said, to me Evans can only be worried about one thing – if Contador is back on form.
The TT gives him a very nice cushion against every other contender.
Hmm, did I say anyone "just had to mark" in this Tour?
Don’t think so. I don’t see the race that way at all :)
Was supposed to be
a reply.
Doesn’t like like it took.
Maybe I pressed the wrong button.
I wasn't counting tomorrow as high mountains.
He is an astute opportunist and he is actively looking for opportunities to attack, but he doesn’t necessarily have to attack to win.
And really good preview Gavia, thanks
I agree that Cadel is not taking Voeckler for granted. Tomorrow-attacks!
Nice prediction yesterday too-props
Me too.
I think the first hour will rock the casbah in a big way :Dby gavia on Jul 18, 2011 3:54 PM PDT
Not to jinx the man
But he could puncture, alone, at a really bad moment in a climb a la Vuelta.
Yellow is where he needs to be now, just so he can get the “Don’t attack yellow when it is on the ground” bit of sportsmanship.
That's why I think he will attack tomorrow
He has experience of being in the box seat and things going pear-shaped in several different ways.
He must but I am not holding my breath...
Would not be at all surprised if Contador attacks again tomorrow.
Some people are born to be spectators, some people are born to make a spectacle and some are born to be mere fans.
I'd think he wants to be in Yellow in the ITT if at all possible ...
… so he knows the times to beat. And tomorrow could be a good day to do it.
Oh, I had it wrong in my head.
I thought yesterday’s stage was the one to Galibier.
One more day to wait!
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi.
"If I couldn't play for the Colts, I would probably stop playing football." - Peyton Manning.
I think someone did some in the live thread, near the end.
"If Peyton Manning crashed onto a barbed-wire fence and returned to a game, you’d never hear the end of it for the rest of your life." Jason Gay
Last day for a French Stage Victory?
I just can’t see them winning either of the hilltop finishes, the ITT or the sprint.
Nice preview.
16% ouch. The stage has the potential to be very interesting.
I am as excited about the next four stages as Chris gets the day before the Tour of Flanders.
Moooo
I think that the responsibility to attack will shift from AC...
…to Cadel Tomorrow.
Cuddles has been brilliant thus far (with a stage win lest we forget) but tomorrow, he has to show that he is a TdF winner.
Sure, one could say that all he has to do is get 20-30 more seconds before Saturday. However, Mr Voeckler has 1:45 on him and is a strong, intelligent cat with some kick ass support (thus far) and KNOWS how to suffer.
The Schlecks have shown us the folly of getting Menchovian on a dangerous rival when the terrain is in your favour and tomorrow with two Cat 3’s two cat 2’s and a cat 1 peppered by fast technical descents, this is custom made for a world class, ex-mountain bike champion and very skilled bike handler-Tomorrow is Cadel’s territory.
Let’s be honest, Cadel is a wonderful rider, but he has not historically shown an ability to match a Contador Alpine cluster bombing in the high, high, high mountains. AC will attack on Thursday and Friday because that is his playground. If Cadel is forced to ride defensively, he may only maintain the gap to TV, make incremental gains or perhaps even lose time if luck is not with him and that is not going to play in Paris.
Sure, he might be well served by letting TV stay in yellow through the week, and he may not be able to get it all back tomorrow since TV can descend quite well. However, he certainly does need the gap to be under a minute before Saturday to have enough margin for his TT. It is no guarantee that he can take a lot of time on the jersey on Thursday or Friday given that this is a clear AC opportunity to put everyone in the red as he looks for the 2 mins he needs for the podium.
Yep, I really think that AC’s objective is the podium. I mean, really, 3:42 to yellow in week 3 is a Helluva lot of time to make up in 3 days and a TT- The man is still not 100% and today is just an illustration of pure class and talent, not fantastic form.
For him to get 1 minute on a rock solid TV on each of the next three days, and then make up 40+ sec on the TT is a bit much to ask- even for him and makes the large assumption that TV will implode- no guarantee based on his performances thus far. Besides, just waiting for SOMEONE to do something to help YOU win is Menchovian- and AC is not a Menchovian racer.
However, if he continues to take 30 second chunks every day then the podium is TOTALLY doable and to be honest, THAT would be a fantastic achievement in a year when he has already won a ridiculously hard Giro- Legend cemented.
Okay, so the Schlecks are still a factor, as whiny, annoying, one-dimensional, tactically deficient, poorly prepared, overhyped, untested, coddled, and talented as they are. They still have a super team (although I am not sure about that dinner table- What? You care about your family more that Jens! cares about his 5 kids after crashing twice in 30 mins chasing down people for YOU on Sunday?? Don’t even get me started…)
But they do have 39 seconds and almost 2 mins on AC, so you can’t discount them. If they can get their knickers on and descend tomorrow like professionals then they stay in the frame. BUT I think that the paella I suggested AC share with his amigos in Euskatel and Movistar will have an effect. We saw him and Sammy work together today and I think we will see it again tomorrow and throughout the Tour.
This is NOT Cadel’s to lose-yet. Okay, Andy has proven that he is callow, unprepared, and not of sufficient skill, quality or character to win the Tdf this year- his time will certainly come (with some maturity, experience, stage race wins, and SERIOUS training time following real racers like Fab, Jens! and Stuey) but for now the spotlight switches to Cadel to show us if he is worthy….
The man has ridden with control, determination, guts and intelligence, but tomorrow, he will have to show the panache that TdF winners must have in order to be in yellow in Paris.
Cadel has to take time out of Voeckler, but not necessarily on Wednesday
Thursday and Friday in the high mountains are excellent opportunities for Cadel to turn up the pressure on TV and/or just stick with Contador’s attacks.
Sure, Cadel will have to attack on his own Thursday and/or Friday if no one else does to close the gap to Voeckler. But that’s not likely. Bert will attack, and if Cadel sticks with Bert or just limits the damage to a few seconds, then he will catch and pass Voeckler.
Voeckler’s only chance is if the GC contenders all go completely conservative in the Alps like they did in the Pyrenees, i.e., if they play a silly game in which they abandon their own hopes of winning the Tour in hopes of forcing Evans to do all the work. If that happens, Voeckler can hang around. But if Contador and the Schlecks are putting in full-power attacks to try and force Evans to keep up, then Voeckler will lose a lot of time.
MJB
I concur.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
One thing
Neither Cadel (nor Basso I think) has ever before had a season focused entirely on the Tour. Now AC and the Schlecks are finding out what its like when all the climby men just prepare for the Tour and turn up fresh – its a little too close for comfort, eh?
So the Cadel of the past cannot be compared to the Cadel of this year – entirely different animal. (And George Hincapie is very upbeat – and he really should know.)
I concur again.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Hmmmm...Maybe so...
but I think the man has momentum and opportunity, and who knows what will happen on Thursday and Friday. Again, I think that it is a HUGE mistake to voluntarily pass up opportunities to gain time on your rivals in terrain that suits you.
AC- the best stage racer in a generation- has shown us time and again that attacking when you feel good and where the road is in your favour is a consistently successful strategy. It has been the cornerstone of all his attacks in all of his GT’s thus far. Why not take a page from his copybook?
Or use the counterfactual- the Schlecks (specifically Andy) passed up a golden opportunity to attack hard on Luz Ardiden and PdB where the terrain was to their liking and look what happenned to them.
Cadel is clearly sitting on some significantly strong legs, and he may well be able to hang with a concerted AC Th/Fri attack, but racing is more than just legs- Ask Cancellara about his April.
Being aggressive helps protect against (but does not prevent) random shit- Punctures, accidents, bad days. It also makes the unpredictable less of a worry- Maybe Tommy V is on the form of his life and suffers his way through? Maybe a French TV car wipes out half the peloton? Maybe his team gets a stomach bug? (genuine, not the Gewiss type) Maybe Euskatel and Movistar make a massive train with Tiralongo at the front to launch AC into the stratosphere? Maybe, but if Cadel is in front he has (more) control over HIS race….
Listen, maybe Cadel will have the strength to kill it on Th/Fri or just ride the AC wheel up multiple mountains- If so then Fantastic! But that is a bit of an IF for Cadel- AC’s abilities in multiple high mountain days in the 3rd week of a GT is no mystery. If Cadel is not quite up to that extraordinary standard, no worries- By taking time today, he puts the pressure SQUARELY on AC to attack on Th/Fri and also takes some of the pressure off of his own TT.
In the next 4 days TV has nothing to lose and everything to gain. AC already has 3 MJ’s at home and this year’s Giro, so if he does not win, its disappointing but a podium confirms his greatness. The Schlecks are inept.
Menchovian racing- Now to be termed SCHLECKIAN racing since Menchov has actually WON 3 GT’s- is a dangerously seductive tactic that can easily backfire in a tight race like this.
This is Cadel’s time and if he screws this up by backing away from his moment and racing not to lose as opposed to racing to WIN- It would be certainly disappointing and possibly devastating.
by Doctornurse on Jul 20, 2011 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
If Evans kills himself tomorrow on that final climb/descent
then he might get 10 seconds, or, best-case, 30 seconds, on Contador. But he’ll have to turn himself inside out to do that, and it won’t mean all that much if he has an off-day in the Alps.
If his recovery is so good that he can do that and then hang in the high mountains (and only he, if anyone, knows) then it makes sense. But I think that he is fundamentally a diesel – notwithstanding his puncheur traits – and his best chance of winning this race is to hang on and minimise his losses to Bert in the mountains, and then blast the TT and pick up time there if he can.
I also think a lot of people are underrating Contador’s TT. And I think for Bert to be where he is now, after the Giro he did, is incredible (in every sense of the word).
Finally, I’m fed up with this “Menchovian” crap. As you say, the guy has won three GT’s, so there’s nothing wrong with his style of racing. And there’s nothing wrong with the Schlecks’ style either. It’s the legs that are wrong here, not the style.
Cadel has lost a Tour by 20-something seconds before, no?
…And I am sure if you have given him the option to get those 20+ seconds by turning himself inside out on a stage like today he would take it gladly and with both hands…
He wants to win a GT, so by definition his recovery HAS to be good (or else he is hosed for the TT on Saturday after two brutal Alpine days).
Nothwithstanding his diesel traits he cannot race as if he already has the jersey. Letting attacks happen and reacting prudently is a wonderful tactic when you are 1:45 ahead. Not when you are 1:45 down and you know that the MJ WILL turn himself inside out to stay in yellow.
I think that you are underrating Voeckler’s TT- As I said, he has nothing to lose, is pretty damn inspired and who knows what can happen- If Cadel puts all his chips on one 45k stage it forces him to be perfect on that TT- That’s a lot of pressure on anyone, Making up say 60-90sec in a 40-odd K TT is possible, but by any measure is a damn risky gambit.
Why not diversify the risk a bit and give himself some room for error in the next 3 days by attacking now and giving himself those 20-25 seconds- That sort of time difference has decided several Tours before this one, no?
Listen, as much as I don’t like it, there is nothing wrong with Schleckian racing tactics- Except when its the wrong tactic for a particular race.
You can afford to sit back and let the race come to you when your chosen ability (TT, climbing, whatever) is head and shoulders over the rest of the field, but that ain’t the deal this year…Don’t confuse time gaps with differences in ability- Cats are evenly matched this year. That parity makes for far more unpredictability and is why control is so important in the next few days.
Fresher, more prepared cats means that margins are tighter and its much riskier to choose to only react to the moves of others. Particularly since- using your “diesel” argument (which I don’t agree with, but its still a valid argument)- Cadel might need a bit of time to progressively build up a head of steam. If he takes the initiative, grabs the race by the scruff he gives himself the time and space to do exactly that…
If he waits, the risk is that in the meantime Alberto (+/- Sammy) lights it up and again- using your argument- if Alberto takes away the time Cadel’s diesel needs to come on the boil, he might then have to push into the red too soon, an dthen it could be too damn late…
I am not saying he has to drop Contador today- He has what? Almost 2 mins in hand on on AC?
I am saying that he has to take the initiative, control the race and make Alberto turn himself inside out to match his diesel power (using your argument)
He has the momentum, he has the opportunity, he has the legs and he has them TODAY. Racing not to lose is a bad choice…
Cadel wants to take every opportunity he can. Those twenty odd seconds are always at the front of his mind.
He knows a bad day could signal his demise, so the bigger the buffer, the better the chances of stepping atop the podium.
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
If Cadel has the legs, I don't think we need to worry that he won't use them
He’s a smart man—he doesn’t attack for the sake of attacking, he attacks when he feels strong and thinks he can make it stick. He might be content to just cover Contador’s attacks, because that’s all (“all”) he needs to do now against AC. (And ditto for the rest of the bigs, really.) But he knows he’s got to put Voeckler away. So if no one else attacks Voeckler in the high mountains, I’m pretty sure Cadel will.
My second place behind Contador is worth a lot--Michele Scarponi
I like the way you think.
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
voeckler's got nothing to lose
and everything to gain if the favorites don’t start racing each other.
"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."
Maybe a day for Cunego (being that the race enters Italy)
He seems to excel on shortish steep climbs and can descend quite well when it’s necessary. Plus at 4 minutes behind and one time trial to come he’s not on the hit list of the other GC contenders, I’m sure they would give him some leeway if he attacked.
good point, hadn’t thought about that
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 19, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Looks like the run-in to Pinerolo
is slightly different than the one used in the 2009 Giro.
In the Giro, it was 9.7k from the top of Pramartino to the finish, but it’s only 8k tomorrow.
It looks like the Tour route skips the little rise near the finish where, IIRC, Di Luca caught and passed Jen Grey after leaving Menchov behind on the descent from Pramartino.
Di Luca gained 10 seconds on Menchov and Sastre with an attack pretty far down the descent. Obviously, as we saw today, Bert, Cadel and SamSan could take a lot more than that from the Schlecks and Basso if they go over the top with even a tiny gap (or even if they don’t).
Today was fucking awesome! Best stage by far in a Tour that’s had some pretty great stages. I can’t wait for tomorrow!
I know, right?
That was amazy today. Love me some bike racing!
Cool stuff on the 2009 Giro. Really, I couldn’t remmeber it at all. Like, I didn’t recognize the climb name well enough to turn it into Italian? Eh, you know, third week of the Tour, no brains left. The climb should make for good racing, though. Gah, it’s steep!
First time ever I pulled up the replay and watched most of it
(except the first 100km that I watched live.)
Oh yeah
- I remember that small bump toward the finish back then. Rumours a few days before said it was 25% and cobbled, that last bump – turned out it wasn’t but anyway
by Forstoppelse on Jul 19, 2011 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, this is THAT climb from 2009?
oooh la la. Even Voeckler could put some time into the schlecks tomorrow, especially with that descent.
I think your’e right in calling Evans for it – I think he’s aggressive and astute enough to realize what he can do here. And maybe drop AC on the downhill again, but this time without the flat to chase back on… A guy can hope, right?
My fruit bowl is full of sex wax--gavia
yeah I was thinking tomorrow would be a great day for Evans . . .
didn’t know about that 16% though. Still, sounds like there’s enough time for him to get back the time he might lose there.
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 19, 2011 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah I agree, comes early enough in the stage
I think Thursday and Friday present greater difficulties for him
I'm feverished, or the way you want to spell it
by plinytheelder on Jul 20, 2011 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions
A 3-second gap is far from dropping.
Evans will need to do much better tomorrow. He has the potential but AC is on the rise…
Some people are born to be spectators, some people are born to make a spectacle and some are born to be mere fans.
True, and I worry a bit about the Samu-AC connection.
They’re both dangerous, and working together even more so.
My second place behind Contador is worth a lot--Michele Scarponi
contador
"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."
's teammates wear a few different colored jerseys
"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."
i hate typing on laptops
"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."
Sanchez is a much better descender than Evans...
It seems he had a bad day today.
If the breakaway does not survive,
he’ll definitely have a chance to
get the stage.
Some people are born to be spectators, some people are born to make a spectacle and some are born to be mere fans.
People seem to constantly underrate how good of a descender Cadel is
I have seen him bomb a lot of descents in a way almost as smooth as Thor or Fabian. I think the difference is he hasn’t traditionally used them as places to gain time, not nearly as much as Sanchez has, even if he has the skills there.
Perhaps he’s more cautious, perhaps he’s never thought it worth the risks. But I think he’s not far behind Sanchez’s ability, or even level with it, and has been there for a while.
My fruit bowl is full of sex wax--gavia
by Douglas Ansel on Jul 20, 2011 8:10 AM EDT up reply actions
The dude has broken his collarbone 6-ish times!
The guy can totally rip descents, but I think he now picks the times to ‘hang it all out’ very carefully as he knows what can potentially occur.
What would Deming do? (+8:00 GMT)
Excellent way of putting it
Totally has the ability, but seldomly employs fully
My fruit bowl is full of sex wax--gavia
by Douglas Ansel on Jul 20, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
he's a mountain biker.
"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."
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