Stage 18 Preview: The Roof of the Alps: Agnel, Izoard, and Galibier
by Willj on Jul 20, 2011 11:46 AM EDT
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Above: view of south side of Galibier from the summit.
Stage 18 visits the roof of the Alps - with three massive climbs including the highest point in the 2011 Tour and the highest mountain top finish in Tour de France history. We voted this the 2011 Queen stage.
After the jump: More drooling.
Stage Profile
Ouch!
Col Agnel
Photo: Col Agnel, Italian side - courtesy of a friend
We should really use the Italian name - Colle dell'Agnello - as this climb is entirely in Italy. The summit is the French / Italian border. Agnel is the hardest (and highest) climb in the 2011 Tour de France according to our mountain difficulty rankings. It's the third highest paved pass in all Europe - after Col de l'Iseran (2770m) and Passo dello Stelvio (2757m). It's a monster.
2011 will be only its second Tour appearance - the French side though last time. In 2008, Egoi Martinez was first over the summit. The Peloton will have been climbing for roughly 50 kms (at almost 2% avg) before they even reach the official start of the climb. Ouch!
For Albertina: This marmotte lives on Agnel.
Col d'Izoard
The seventh hardest climb in the 2011 Tour, this will be the 33rd time Izoard has appeared in the TdF (1st climbed in 1922). The peloton will climb the more "mythic" south side. At the top is the unique Casse Déserte - a beautiful, arid, rocky environment. The other side is much greener.
For the Col hunters in the crowd, the entrance of La Casse Deserte is at Col de la Platrière.
Izoard is one of the truly legendary alpine cycling climbs. Lots of history here including great battles between Fausto Coppi and Louison Bobet in the 1950's.
After a brief descent from Platrière, the peloton will pass the Coppi-Bobet monument as they attack the last two kilometres to the summit.
In 1953, after several battles with Louison Bobet on Izoard in preceding years, Fausto Coppi watched as a fan up Izoard. He said hello as Bobet passed by on a stage where Bobet seized yellow, erasing an +8 minute deficit on his way to winning in Paris
Col du Galibier
Photo: Waiting for the approaching peloton below
It's a 100 years since Galibier first appeared in the tour. To celebrate, stage 18 will finish up top - the highest mountain top finish in Tour history. For a brief history of Galibier see here.
The lower part of this side of Galibier is not steep until Col du Lautaret. But here they turn right, leaving the main road, and head up.
Col du Lautaret is often called the "easiest" +2000 metre climb in France. It is the highest pass in France kept open year round.
It's only the 10th toughest climb in the 2011 Tour de France. However, when they reach the Desgranges monument, they begin the last kilometre over the tunnel -- the toughest part of the entire climb. There is a 12% sign about five metres from the finish line (top photo).
For an insight into the money behind becoming a stage hosting village: the official Tour web site calls the stage finish Galibier - Serre-Chevalier (look at the profile well above). It's wrong. The finish is Col du Galibier. Obviously the ski station of Serre - Chevalier has forked out some big bucks as it is a long way from Col du Galibier - with the start of the climb being on the edge of the region. And the village itself well before the start.
A Final Word
It looks like it's going to be unseasonably chilly - but at least only a small chance of rain/snow. The descents from Agnel and Izoard will be terrifyingly cold. It will be interesting to see how they are raced down.
This is a stunningly beautiful stage (and all the nearby peaks will have fresh snow).
Enjoy!
P.S. Cycling Author and Photographer Jered Gruber did a photoshoot in May with his bride of all three climbs. Some truly fantastic photos here.
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Previewing the top of Galibier with Tourbecco during his lost Gerolsteiner years:
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Comments
Two factors that could impact the race
1) Weather? Snow on the Galibier? I’m still hearing talk of it. II hope they aren’t going to reroute the race. If they do, it would probably help the guys who are now in the lead, viz., TV and Evans.
2) The Galibier is long, but for most of the way not as steep as the other two, esp. Agnel. The best place for attacks on the Galibier would seem to be near the top, but of course that reduces the time an attack can pick up. So might there be an attack on one of the earlier climbs? Larger gaps might be possible there, but the question is whether they can be held.
Evans and Basso would surely prefer the race begins at the foot of the Galibier, Bert and Andy, I would think, do better if attacks come sooner.
Agree
I think the weather worry is as much Agnel as Galibier – as climbing should be fine. Plus Agnel descent is quite steep.
And it is cold this week. Colder than it’s been in months
Moooo
I thought that was likelier on the Alpe d'Huez stage
as it is such a short stage but hard enough that the time gap could be enough to eliminate him.
Time allowance is longer on short stages
I know we normally refer to stages as flat, “medium mountains” and “high mountains” but the official rules have six difficulty classes. The percentage allowance behind the leader is higher for each class, with flat = class 1, medium mountains = class 2, high mountains = class 3, short high mountain stages = class four (classes five and six are the TTT and the ITT).
So I suspect that 19 is difficulty four and therefore easier to keep out of the broom wagon than 18.
Tomorrow to Galibier is cat 3, Friday to Alpe is cat 4
For cat 3 stages: P = V – 24 (minimum 6%, maximum 17%)
For cat 4 stages: P = V – 21 (minimum 9%, maximum 20%)
where
P = max time gap as percentage of winner’s time
V = winner’s average speed in km/h rounded UP to a whole number
"On paper, your team is awesome." -- Pigeons on my WVDS team, and life in general.
Could Gavia check my math please?
OK,
So for stage 18 —> the schedule shows 38 km/h as the fast time and 34 km/h for the slow time.
Fast time= 317 minutes times 14% or 44 minutes
Slow Time = 354 minutes times 10% or 35 minutes
Moooo
Correct
and for stage 19 (schedule shows same km/h for fast & slow times)
Fast time = 173 minutes times 17% or 29 minutes
Slow time = 193 minutes times 13% or 25 minutes.
25 minutes on such a hard stage and after three weeks of racing... that's not a lot
to say the least
Being less slow than you still doesn't make me fast :)
You’ve done La Marmotte too, you know these climbs and you know how easy it is to lose 25 minutes to better climbers.
This tight time-limit might cause serious problems for a lot of (tired) riders IMO. Especially since the favourites will race HARD!
and . . . (considering):
there were missed opportunities to open gaps in the first week’s stages that I read (forget were) were not exploited because leaders did not want to either burn out or get their domestiques eliminated.
From a purely pragmatic standpoint (leaving aside the sentimentality of finishing your teammates in Paris), team leaders really don’t have much reason to worry about preserving domestiques past the Agnel.
Thx
the other strategy would be to put photographers along the route :)
Moooo
by Willj on Jul 20, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
everyone's a photographer these days
the route will be smothered in them
"I’m hoping for the Mortirolo-Gavia combination, then we can ride down to Bormio for ice cream." Emma Pooley on the Giro Donne
Every time I see this
I always remember how many TdFs Cav has finished. I don’t believe that a) Movistar will seriously try to shell him and b) even if they do, get close to succeeding.
No matter how many he has finished
Being OOT has often been a worry for him. If Movistar would have this plan for Thor or Freire or Boonen I’d say “Bonkers with a capital b”, but with Cav it’s more “unlikely to succeed, but worth a shot”.
And they'll have a friend for life if they succeed
Any manager with any sense of PR at all would have scrapped this plan long ago. Having Cav pissing on you for years in the english language media is such a great prospect. But otoh this is the the team that stood by Valv.Piti and are bringing him back as their team leader so I don’t see why anyone should accuse them of having much brains.
It strikes me that movistars sprinters are often complaining about Cav's tows...
so, doesn’t that mean they are often there riding with Cav. Thus, if they try too hard to blow up Cav, it’s possible they blow up Rojas too, right?
ie. Gilbert FTW!
by JustJoshinYa on Jul 20, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Do Spaniards or Spanish companies care what Cavendish says or thinks?
I mean you’re right. Even if this was Movistar’s plan, they should have just kept their mouth shut and did it without acknowledging it. The chances of Cavendish not making the cut are probably roughly the same whether Movistar drives the peloton or not. And now, if Cavendish fails on his own accord, he has a convenient scapegoat.
The politics of the peloton may ban this kind of activity, but I personally don’t get it. Cavendish is not the fastest sprinter in the world. You could probably pick any of a dozen track riders to beat him. They would just have absolutely no chance of making it over any mountain (let alone a 200 km stage). Being a road sprinter requires decent climbing, and if Cavendish doesn’t have the legs, I say boo hoo on him.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Cycling's Wayne Rooney
Difficult to admire the talent beyond the utter tool.
by Skein on Jul 20, 2011 4:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
take this as a personal opinion and not the whole of the Spanish society
I haven’t devoted much time, no.
movistar
can’t figure out what their problem is. are they jealous because cav is better than their man? I mean that’s not news is it? are they frustrated because rojas is their best/only/viable bet for any type of success?
whatever they make themselves look like biggers assh@les than Cav’s faux pas’s…………………and that is saying something.
It wouldn't be the most sporting tactic...
But if they are correct that Cav is taking pulls from cars on the climbs, I can see where they’d feel justified.
My second place behind Contador is worth a lot--Michele Scarponi
Everytime I look at that profile
my reaction is “Holy shit!”
I love the Galibier.
That is all.
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi.
"If I couldn't play for the Colts, I would probably stop playing football." - Peyton Manning.
I also love snow.
BTW.
"It's the greatest job in the world until Peyton comes off the field and you think his thumb might be broken and there's three minutes left in the AFC Championship Game and you're down by three to New England and you haven't taken a snap all year. Yeah, it's a great job until that point." - Jim Sorgi.
"If I couldn't play for the Colts, I would probably stop playing football." - Peyton Manning.
by gizzardfanny on Jul 20, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Pfftt! Colle dell'Agnello at 2744 meters?
See you next month in Colorado. Cottonwood Pass = 3679 meters. Got oxygen? ;)
Chest thumping aside, tomorrow’s stage even makes my television nervous.
+1
in 2008, I watched the tour at the summit of Galibier with a friend from Colorado and we had this exact discussion.
He sent me a book with Colorado climb profiles as a gift afterwards.
I am looking forward to seeing Independence Pass and other stuff in whatever-the-heck that race is called :)
Moooo
yes but
the valley floor is at 3000 meters, which takes a bit of the fun away.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
What are the tallest climbs around?
I know the tallest mountain is Mauna Kea, but you’d have to cycle from the ocean bottom, which would be an interesting additional challenge.
I have occasionally received emails on my blog about crazy stuff in China, Afghanistan, etc.
it’s a question of road quality I guess. Even in France, Italy, there are some crazy climbs …. just not paved – like that Hawaii one
Moooo
Cimes de la Bonnete in France advertises itself as highest in Europe, but something in Spain is inches higher.
Moooo
Yeah, highest is pretty easy to look up
But tallest (ie altitude difference between top and bottom)?
saw this online:
http://www.pactour.com/highroad.html
Day 4
Tuesday, October 26
San Meteo to La Oroya 50 miles
12,000’ elevation
Today is the big assault over the summit at 16,000 feet. From our hotel we climb 6,000 feet in 25 miles. This will be a five to six hour climb for most riders including rest stops. It is very important to stop and eat and drink every 30 minutes. The elevation will sap your power and strength. Every 1,000 feet gained in elevation is equal to one tooth more needed on the freewheel. For example if you used a 24 tooth rear cog at 8,000 feet you will need a 28 tooth cog at 12,000 feet. At 16,000 feet you will need a 32 tooth cog. Be sure to bring low enough gears to bail you out.
We will have extra support vehicles stationed along the way today. Each vehicle will have bottled oxygen if you feeling nauseated. The vehicles will be instructed to evacuate any rider to lower elevations that is showing signs of altitude sickness.
The weather at the top will be cool. There is a slight chance for rain but this is still an arid climate. You should always have a small seat bag to carry a raincoat and warmer clothes.
The 15 mile descent to La Oroya is steady but less steep than the climb. We will pass several mining towns. In La Oroya our hotel is downtown within walking distance of several restaurants.
by JustJoshinYa on Jul 20, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
That is SICK!!! It would be soooooo cool to be able to go!
Do not interfere in the affairs of Dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup!
damn
sounds like fun.
"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."
tallest from base to peak is Kilimanjaro
No idea what the roads are like, though
absent?
"Ants don’t worry, they operate like a fantastic team, they accept obstacles and deal with them in a positive manner, they don’t complain and remain positive. An ant doesn’t work on emotion, is proactive and always chooses the ant role."
That would be pretty extreme CX
You’d have to decompress on the way up, so it would probably take three weeks to complete without getting the bends.
From the Maurienne valley (north side Galibier) and then into Italy are some VERY high passes unpaved but totally rideable
fun
Moooo
ecuador
did downhill mtb from base camp of cotopaxi which peaks at 6850 ish. base camp is 4850. most of the group I was with were totally unprepared, wearing flipflops and descended like a certain A. Schleck ;)
So many possibilities!
If AC wants to pick up time, is it wrong to think his best chance might be an attack when the Agnel kicks up at 13km? Or at least on the Izoard? With Evans in such great form, I can’t see him picking up enough time on the relatively mild slopes of the Galibier and without any real flats in between the climbs, AC shouldn’t have too much problems staying away on the descents. If he drags Andy and/or Frank with him he shouldn’t have too much problem gapping them on the roads down from the top. Also, if he did, and stayed away, what a epic ride that would be!
well
to get the greatest bang for your buck, you want to hit guys when they’re hurting much more than you. Unless the race is raced very fast, I suspect the Schlecks won’t be hurting any more or less than Contador. This is why the final climbs usually decide things.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Plus
you risk having them catch up to you on the descent and then having nothing on subsequent climbs.
Wait
The Schlecks? Catch up on the descents? Hahahaha!
Seriously though, I think AC’s fantastic going downhill, as evidenced by the last few stages and the last few years in the tour, I’’d be confident he’d be able to stay away from anyone going straight downhill, and even if Evans stayed with him, the fewer riders AC has around him going up the later hills, the better.
Did I say the Schlecks?
I would assume Evans, Voeckler, and others, if dropped, would attempt to catch AC on the descent. And it’s a risk, not a certainty. For all we know, AC could have 10" going down the Agnello but FSchleck crashes spectacularly, wipes out the rest of the GC contenders in the process, and AC wins the stage by 10’.
And, fwiw
the Schlecks did catch up to AC & SamSan on the descent today (albeit with help from other riders)
which
is what would happen tomorrow too, I think.
Schlecks are both pretty bad at technical descents but I’m not sure these are very technical.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Plus
even if they don’t catch them on the Agnello descent (or Izoard and its descent), it’s a long hard drag from Briancon to Col de Lauteret, and the chasers would likely work together to catch AC (or AC+Samu).
I’m not saying it can’t be done, but the risk/reward ratio may be too big for AC to attempt such a thing, unless he thinks he needs a Hail Mary (like Landis in 2006). Though, if AC does not gain time tomorrow, he may think he needs to attack on Telegraph on Friday.
I know it's unlikely
but it’d be brilliant if it happened. Just trying to talk myself into waking up a 4am tomorrow morning to watch it live. :)
Do it.
I’ll make fun of you in Portland if you don’t.
by KnittingGene on Jul 20, 2011 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Not to mention Andy stuck with Conta downhill once last year
Sorry, too lazy to look up the pass… Madeline?
My fruit bowl is full of sex wax--gavia
by Douglas Ansel on Jul 20, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
yes, stg 9
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
Could this be like Giro Aprica stages?
Where the final climb, while not anything steep, produces MASSIVE time gaps due to the barbarity of the stage?
Voeckler is worried that Contador will attack on the Agnello. May be the best way for him to beat Evans, as Evans in the past has been brutal in long-distance mountain races. He lost 20 minutes into Le Grand Bornand, which was raced from a very long way out. Only way Evans wins the tour is if the attacks do not start until 3km from the finish
The wild card in the stage is Voeckler, who only lost time today because he descended like a Schleck. He was covering all of Conta’s attacks. Could he hang with Conta again tomorrow?
Yup
on that first suggestion.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't think Contador will attack from that far out on Thursday
Thursday is not the day for a Landis-style go-for-broke attack. Friday will also be a hard day.
If Contador (or Contador and SamSan) spend two-thirds of the day Thursday on the attack, they run a huge risk of having dead legs on the Alpe d’Huez Friday afternoon.
A long attack in the high mountains saps far more of a rider’s reserves than an attack on the last climb/descent in a stage that is just hilly (i.e., the attacks AC launched on Tuesday and Wednesday).
MJB
they would also
force the other favorites to chase. if the Schlecks follow Fabian up the Agnello, they would lose 10 minutes on that climb and the tour. Thus, may not just be Conta having dead legs the next day, but everyone having them, which would also favor Contador as he tends to recover faster
I don't know if he has the legs this year, but my impression is that a long, grinding slog up...
… all three mountains is pretty much Andy Schleck’s only chance. Kind of like what he did at the Tourmalet last year—that didn’t work. I wouldn’t think it would work this year, either, on Contador but for the Giro, but regardless, if you’re Andy, you need to kill off Cadel much more and just take your chances.
At any rate, it ought to be interesting.
DannoE
"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
Storyteller's Playbook: A blog about life, family, triathlon, and the occasional comic book.
I think some guys who are currently at places 9-25 will pick this strategy
a loooong attack. All or nothing.
Unfair advantage that Eskimo blood line.
But if he wants to ride like hell at the sight of snow on the mountains he has a right, it’s up to him. He can attack as an Eskimo but does he really want to win that way?
Super dope. Is that like EPO on steroids?
Yup
Nobody in the top five has any reason for doing this. After that, I can see it. And they need enough of them to make it work. And they need to drop all of the top five guys in the process. So yeah, not very likely.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, Bert doesn't need 10 minutes
Contador is only two minutes behind Evans:
Cadel Evans (BMC Racing Team) --
Fränk Schleck (Leopard Trek) 0:04 behind Evans
Andy Schleck (Leopard Trek) 1:18 BE
Samuel Sánchez (Euskaltel Euskadi) 1:41 BE
Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank) 1:57 BE
Damiano Cunego (Lampre-ISD) 2:16 BE
Ivan Basso (Liquigas-Cannondale) 2:31 BE
And, recovery isn’t that predictable; you couldn’t be sure that all seven of these guys would have dead legs the next day.
Contador might be stronger than anyone else this week and he is within two minutes. He can win the Tour without an attack-from-the-first-climb strategy. Basso or Cunego might feel differently about their own position in this group, but it doesn’t seem to be a strategy that would suit either of them.
MJB
1 minute might be enough, 3 minutes might not be enough...
You never know. Seems to me Bert, Andy and Frank ought to attack early and try to go away together. They share the first priority of gapping Evans. If they get to the Galibier ahead of everyone else, they can settle things among themselves there.
If the TT were tomorrow. . .
The podium would be Evans, Voeckler, Contador
This means Andy, Frank, Damiano and Ivan need to ride the next two days.
Sammy is AC’s 10th man and seems he will do whatever is asked.
Except that
everything Samu has done has also benefitted himself & not just Contador.
"I’m hoping for the Mortirolo-Gavia combination, then we can ride down to Bormio for ice cream." Emma Pooley on the Giro Donne
Yeah, don't overlook Sanchez...
He is climbing well and (of course) descending well. I think he has a good shot at another stage win (if only as a gift from AC). I wouldn’t even be surprised to see him on the podium, although a few people would need to implode for that to happen.
My second place behind Contador is worth a lot--Michele Scarponi
Landis possibly not the best spectre to raise...
"I’m hoping for the Mortirolo-Gavia combination, then we can ride down to Bormio for ice cream." Emma Pooley on the Giro Donne
If race begins on Agnello
This stage may be harder than the famous Sestrieres stage in 1992
I really hope we see someone go for it over the Agnello and make it a hard, hard fight all the way...
Dislike the whole train to the final climb US Postal thing…though on this stage, it looks too hard to see a train reach the Galibier. Probably will see a LT train on Izoard, right?
by JustJoshinYa on Jul 20, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
If Basso and his mates are going to shine, it should be tomorrow.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Szmackdown!
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2011 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
yep. Basso's path to the podium is for his boys to drill it up Agnel and eliminate all the team helpers
If he can get it down to a group of six on the Izoard, then i think he can win the stage by just grinding up the Galibier
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
The problem is that his boys
Is just Szmyd
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Jul 21, 2011 4:25 AM EDT up reply actions
They are eating the finest Italian racing fuel (food) tonight and tomorrow morning. They will be feeling good to go.
Super dope. Is that like EPO on steroids?
ROFL
OK, I just completely lost it at work watching this XtraNormal interpretation of Little Schleck:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubEfM5npOvo
I’m sure plenty of you have seen this series of TDF sketches, but it was all new to me.
thanks for that. most excellent. loved the bit about pulling frank out of the race and just have him waiting at the finish line for andy to "cycle into his arms"
"Wizard's first rule. People are stupid. They will believe anything they want to be true or fear to be true." -- Terry Goodkind
Do they
have any new Lance/Levi bits?
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2011 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
And ouchies, that's a brutal 9k to go on the Agnello
That might leave a very small group with many more small groups of chasers all over the road to race to the finish.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
6 in 2007 Giro
were all that were left, and that was with ZERO attacks. NOBODY got back on the descent either
Thanks. Love you cycling historians (or just people with memories).
Hi, I’m Dory. Are you following me?
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Some people (myself included) have smallish kids and get to watch the good films!!!
Do not interfere in the affairs of Dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup!
Some people (like me) don't have small kids and watch them anyway
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Jul 20, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok, so I'll admit my kids are not THAT small anymore!!
But I still go see them (in the theatre, multiple times some times.
Do not interfere in the affairs of Dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup!
Finding Nemo?...See picture reference
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
but
the gap is coming down rapidly.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
i couldnt wait for this stage as it is
but seeing the profiles above, my God, i dont think i’ll sleep tonight!
Forza Contador!
we’re all a little nervous that a monster like Agnel might get wasted. But isn’t one possibility that – without dropping many people – it gets ridden very hard ….. leading to later issues?
Moooo
Thats the dream scenario,
but frankly not one stage (in any stagerace this year) with more than one climb has been ridden hard until the last climb.
I'd say
probability. The guys not getting weeded out are still gonna feel it, big time.
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 20, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
No way not to feel this one
whether you ride it tempo or all out, it’s a leg roasting cooker.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
I'm hearing about chilly weather
seeing pics of snow and it’s 99F outside here right now and my air conditioner is gulping down watts faster than the whole peloton could produce them, even on that profile above.
Is the finish really at the Galibier summit?
So little space up there, how will they manage that?
I hate the Lautaret side of the Galibier. It’s ugly and often windy. Headwinds may discourage attackers. Love the Isoard though, a very hard climb. that will soften them up.
Similarly in 2007
Ugly? The mountains are stunning no (les trois éveques)? I agree below Lautaret, it’s not great cyclotourism due to busy road? Agree – Izoard as good as it gets.
Here’s what they will do I think:
Close the road at Col du Lautaret VERY early. It’s what they did in 2008 (south side of Galibier was early in the stage). There were HUGE crowds just above (walkers) and below Lautaret but it was far less crowded well above.
Similarly in 2007, from north side, they just posted Gendarmes half kilometre from summit and said "thou shall not pass. "
Moooo
I assume it'll be like Tourmalet last year
with all the Tour vehicles parked on the opposite side of Galibier (towards Valloire).
Yep, The official Tour cars
will be forced through the Galibier tunnel – 1km from summit. Pletny of room on other side.
Moooo
Team Sky - apology
typically after posting they were flattering to deceive, they’ve been kicking my teeth in eversince! dauphine victory now EBH’s 2nd victory plus Uran in white jersey. what with thomas’s form (and wiggins’s early form before accident) I have been put in my place.
They are having a good tour
All things considered. Shame about Wiggins, but they have made the the best of a bad situation.
Edgar knows best.
Oh, it's definitely different
But if you had told me Ryder would most be visible this Tour working for Thor in a break, I wouldn’t have believed you.
Vande Velde and Ryder aren’t having a great run at the GC. And Garmin made their lemons into lemonade.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
I never rated Hesj as a genuine GC contender
I liked VDV enough to spend six – worth a gamble – VDS points on him, but that was my max prize. Danielson is a nice surprise, but I never thought he had more than a tenth-ish spot in him (I didn’t even think he’d get that).
So to me it doesn’t feel like they lost anyone, just that who they had pretty much raced like I expected them too. Except for Thor, who did waaaaaaaay better.
agreed
I didn’t think Garmin had a realistic chance of getting a guy into the top 5 this year. Danielson’s doing ok, particularly for his first Tour, but I’d have been very surprised if he was genuinely contending for a podium spot. Whereas both Wiggo & VDB have been in top 5 before.
Can't help wondering what Wiggins might have done given how it's turned out...
but I wouldn’t have swapped it for Eddy’s stage win today, I don’t think.
"I’m hoping for the Mortirolo-Gavia combination, then we can ride down to Bormio for ice cream." Emma Pooley on the Giro Donne
Just to update:
Jered Gruber has been adding more pics from his May visit to the stage 18 route.
FLICKR sets for each of the climbs here:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/smashred/sets/
If you like photos – he’s very talented
Moooo
Descents
Suppose you wanted to neutralize them, as per the Schecks.
You would put lot of ground between climbs no?
But the last 140 kms appear to be almost all up or down.
Could the first attack come on the first or second descent?.
Much stronger cycling friends than me that know the alps say Agnel is VERY hard (like Alpe d’Huez is easy). And the descent is steep.
It has to be a possibility that there are GC attacks early on.
Moooo
But expending energy on attacks on the 1st HC
may be too much of a risk in terms of energy, but how about an attack on the descent continued on the following climb? Wouldn’t that have more punch?
Asking from pure ignorance.
probably
at least the descent of Agnel is incomplete as it turns off and joins Izoard.
It’s a better descent to attack than Izoard …. but agree probably too early.
Moooo
not really. But many of my work colleagues do. You can tell how the broadband of the office goes to hell around 4pm.
All Singhstaxing
I understand, I do it all the time. Never had any complaints though. I watch the end of the race and stay a bit longer to compensate for the lost time.
Naah, I'm joking
it’s been over 400 days now. We try to establish a record that will never be broken.
Anarchy, flanders style
Pretty much consists of bitching about the situation over a beer and then demonstratively not taking any action.
"... and then demonstratively not taking any action."
Sounds like the GC battle in the Pyrenees.
Super dope. Is that like EPO on steroids?
The more I think about it
Evans needs to finish with the contenders AND shell Voeckler so he can sit in yellow.
Just a massive advantage to go last on the ITT – especially for Evans.
That's a good point...
Think what an advantage it would be for Voeckler to go last in the ITT, and being able to measure his effort against Cadel’s.
MJB
(imagine this in French):
“Merde this hurts.”
“5 kph faster now? Fuck me, I’ve got enough lions for an orphanage.”
"enough lions for an orphanage"...?
I don’t think I’m quite familiar with that phrase.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Ah, duh. Good one.
Still, you’re hard to follow sometimes.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
I dunno
Going second or third, you still get to measure your progress against the yellow jersey, you just have to wait 2 minutes longer to receive the data.
Well at least I have 1995, 2000, and 2003. Those were fun.
by dees ees en drama on Jul 20, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Time limits for elimination
(click for original size)
"On paper, your team is awesome." -- Pigeons on my WVDS team, and life in general.
Ah yes,
that post mysteriously disappeared as well. It’s because the percentages jump at round speed numbers. For example, 10% for 33-34 km/h, 11% for 34-35 km/h, 12% for 35-36 km/h, etc.
"On paper, your team is awesome." -- Pigeons on my WVDS team, and life in general.
Ted, I'm not sure the building department will give you a permit for those stairs. The design's all wonky...
by JustJoshinYa on Jul 20, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
+1 who'd a thunk it
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Despite the fact we are now 2.5 weeks into what I have felt to be a very entertaining TDF,
with two mountaintop finishes and a decisive ITT coming up the next three stages and the GC picture still wide open, I can’t help but feel like we’ve only just begun
I can’t wait!!
Cricket talk in live threads earns the banhammer
Surely any mention of the Carpenters is a more egregious offense?
Perhaps there should be a "cricket trap door".
Click “reply” to a cricket post and you disappear forever from SBN. I wonder if Tyler can “Make it so”.
Super dope. Is that like EPO on steroids?
Checked a weather forecast model
Yes, I am a meteorologist
There could be some precip tomorrow if the American GFS model is to be believed. Does not appear as if it will be heavy, however. The race should most certainly be a go!
That's great!
You are a handy guy to have around.
by KnittingGene on Jul 20, 2011 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
the bad news
I am off work tomo so no ADH forecast!
And the good news
is that you’re off work tomorrow so you can watch the race!
by KnittingGene on Jul 21, 2011 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
even better
I get off today in about 75 minutes, so I can also watch the Agnello stage
Thanks Mr. Willj, these mountain stage preview posts have been awesome.
Super dope. Is that like EPO on steroids?
I think Angel and Izoard will be wasted
There will be a breakaway that gets 7 or 8 minutes over Agnel then it will be pulled back on the Galibier and the most time anyone will take is 30 seconds because they will all ride together until the last 2 k and someone will attack then (que contador).
That is just my prediction and while I hope it doesn’t come true, we will hear that they have to save it for tomorrow.
This is where we need Floyd to launch an attack on the first climb and go away all day! Yeah that wasn’t normal but boy was it unprecedented.
So my question is this
What if the weather on the Galibier isn’t any good today, do they re-route/shorten the stage? I’d imagine that is a real possibility.
Focus on easy first. If that's all you get, that ain't half bad - Caballo Blanco
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