Tour de France Final Time Trial Preview!
by Jen See on Jul 22, 2011 7:08 PM EDT
in Tour de France
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The Tour de France hurtles precipitously toward Paris, and the contenders for the Yellow Jersey have one more chance to seize victory in this most unpredictable race. Saturday's stage is a 42.5 kilometer individual time trial in Grenoble. After the hard race through the mountains, the riders will race the clock with the overall victory still far from decided.
The Tour de France comes down to this: One rider, one bike, racing alone in the wind, the inexorable ticking of the clock driving him faster, ever faster. After three weeks of racing, Saturday will decide who will wear the Yellow Jersey in Paris.
The Grenoble time trial follows a circular trace and includes two short climbs. The climbs are not enough to give the climbers much advantage, though. The elevation gain is only around 200 meters for each. The final 15 kilometers are false-flat descending to a flat finish. The second half of the course should favor the specialists and bigger riders over the climbers.
When the Critérium du Dauphiné raced over this same course, the specialists crowded the top of the stage results. Tony Martin of HTC-Highroad won followed by Bradley Wiggins and Edvald Boasson Hagen. Cadel Evans, currently sitting third in the general classification at this Tour de France, finished 1:20 behind Martin.
The road to this final time trial has taken any number of surprising turns. Who imagined a French rider would win on the Alpe d'Huez? Rolland is the first Frenchmen since 1986, when Bernard Hinault crossed the line just ahead of Greg LeMond. And indeed, this Tour with its reverses and long attacks has resembled the Tours of the 1980's more than any of the grand tours since then.
In the normal way of things, Cadel Evans rides better against the watch than both Andy Schleck and Fränk Schleck who sit ahead of him in the general classification. Evans needs to take back nearly a minute on Andy Schleck to win the Tour de France. That's no easy task in 42.5 kilometers, and Evans will need a good ride to do it.
If Andy Schleck successfully defends his race lead, his long breakaway to the summit of the col du Galibier will have won him the bike race in dramatic fashion. If Evans succeeds in winning this Tour, it will be on the strength of his refusal to yield even one centimeter of road. They've done it the hard way, this Tour, in a hand-to-hand grapple through the mountains.
After three weeks of racing like this Tour de France, the Yellow Jersey race is too close to call. Any one of the top three riders could still win the overall. It comes down to who has the legs on the day. Who can recover best from the desperate battle through the mountains? Who can keep his head together when the tension ratches up and the countdown timer ticks down? Certainly, whoever finishes the day in Yellow on Saturday will have earned this Tour victory.
Here is the current general classification. Start your calculators!
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Danish tv keeps boasting their transmission starts at 10:00
and they sound like they will have images from the route. Everyone else lists 14:00 as the start of stagevideo.
That sounds like the Super Bowl in the U.S.
… for which the advertisements usually say that coverage starts at noon, but the kickoff time is 3:30.
MJB
Annency 2009 ITT 40.5km
Contador wins. Cadel finishes at 1:14, Andy at 1:44.
"In road cycling tires 25mm is the new 22mm"
-Chris Fontecchio, PdC April 2011-
not a good year
for cadel
If cobble delusions are wrong, who wants to be right? -JFS PGH
by Chris Fontecchio on Jul 22, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
can't believe al the ppl who think Andy will survive
With the hills, this course rides longer than 42 km, closer to 50 km in time. I think Evans will win comfortably, by 30" at least, with more than a minute final margin quite possible.
Frank will hang on for third, 3’ is a lot for a not-prime Bert to make up on even Frank. I think TV may have a better chance for third than Bert.
Andy came in 21st in that ITT
and 18th in the 15.5k opening TT when everyone was fresh. I’m not sure where he developed this Michael Rassmussen-like reputation.
"In road cycling tires 25mm is the new 22mm"
-Chris Fontecchio, PdC April 2011-
Right
Andy Schleck is actually a more than decent time-trialler. People look at his physique and write him off – and maybe there’s some confusion with his brother, I don’t know. But Evans is going to need a huge performance tomorrow to take a minute out of Andy.
Evans had little motivation at that point
and Millar, Wiggins and LL Sanchez all put a minute into Andy on that shorter course.
No Andy is no Rasmussen, if he were, the prediction would be a 4-5 minute loss.
Honestly
if Schleck makes Evans finish within 45 seconds of Fabian, then it’s probably Schleck’s.
"You better have a schleckond helping (of crow). You earned it."
--Paisley
by dees ees en drama on Jul 23, 2011 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, he was 44th in the 2010 Tour de France ITT at 6'14"
And that’s the time trial people use as example of one of Andy’s BETTER performances.
Don’t forget his prologue that year, 122nd and lost about 40" to Contador to 8.9 km.
Or him not pulling through during this year’s TTT.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
With Cance going fast enough to singlehandedly put the team in second
I don’t think many guys would’ve been taking turns.
Few points of contention here
First, in 2010 a lot of the guys up the leaderboard had much better weather conditions. Second, the prologue is hardly a fair comparison because A) It was so short, and 2) Andy would have taken a lot fewer risks on the descent than Cance did because losing 15 seconds and staying upright was better for his GC hopes. Last, TTTs are really punchy things to ride, actually. Instead of one guy doing 400-450w by himself solo, it’s pulling 550-600w for 30 seconds at a time – historically where Andy is weak.
Really, can’t wait for tomorrow afternoon so we know how good he really is ;-)
My fruit bowl is full of sex wax--gavia
by Douglas Ansel on Jul 22, 2011 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough
Although I don’t think a romp around Rotterdam has very treacherous descents.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
D'oh, I was thinking of 2009!
My fruit bowl is full of sex wax--gavia
by Douglas Ansel on Jul 22, 2011 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you even watch that race, or did you just look up the results?
seriously, there was a massive crosswind that came in pretty late in the day
"You better have a schleckond helping (of crow). You earned it."
--Paisley
by dees ees en drama on Jul 23, 2011 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
We've been down this rode with Cadel before
In 2008. Over a LONGER time trial. Plus as Andy Schleck showed last year he can rise to the occasion in TT, with AC only pulling away from him over the last 10 k’s or so. I’d be really bummed for Cadel if he falls short tomorrow, because this might be his last chance of winning the big one, but it’s going to be very difficult for him tomorrow.
wasnt there a climb in that one?
And that was an ‘easy’ tour. All 09 numbers should just be ignored.
by mr. rogers on Jul 22, 2011 6:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't even know what to say about this stage...
(and that’s rare for me! :-)
I still hold that Cadel should have attacked a bit more on the transitional stage 17 to have had 10 more seconds on Andy- but this is an evenly matched battle…
I think that with Andy in Yellow and starting last the cards are in his favour- I have to say, that Andy’s wonderful attacking ride I think- and it pains me to say this- will have won him the TdF this year. I just do not know if Cadel can gain 1+second a km on Andy on an undulating TT course…
I just dunno- I hope Cadel can do it, but I seriously dunno….
And that is beautiful racing….
(and I still maintain that Alberto Contador is the finest professional bicycle racer on the planet- His ride today was a testimony of grinta, determination and a Champion’s resolve- Just awesome to watch)
Or if you don't care for the guy
you could look at it as a last ditch, I’ve got nothing to lose, may as well go down in flames and take the suckers with me, overnight whimsical plan to garner fandom, maybe they will let me have the stage win kind of attack.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Well, it's refreshing to see the human side,
the human side of all these GC guys. I’ve never seen this kind of exhaustion from these riders during and at the end of stages.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
This could very easily
Come down to single digit seconds. Which is ridiculously exciting.
PLEASE no mechanicals! This has been far too epic a tour to be decided like that.
Edgar knows best.
If Andy chooses mismatched chain rings again like he did in the TdS prologue is that a mechanical?
There are so many aspects to the sport that you have to take into consideration. Cycling is not like math. You can't plan things exactly. - Alberto Contador 24/07/10
The question is
does his TT bike use Di2? I think creating your own team just to avoid manual shifting is a bit excessive.
His bike was Di2 at the Tour de Suisse Scroll down to second Q
There are so many aspects to the sport that you have to take into consideration. Cycling is not like math. You can't plan things exactly. - Alberto Contador 24/07/10
let it rain and the wind blow. Cadel and Andy are back to back so they will have same conditions
And I’m thinking shitty weather favors Cadel, which would make me happy
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
hmmm
much crosswind
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Whatever Evans needs
I will focus on these things.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
I know right... sign me up.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
Has a BMC bike ever one a GT ITT?
Trek on the other hand has quite the pedigree.
"In road cycling tires 25mm is the new 22mm"
-Chris Fontecchio, PdC April 2011-
But Gav, it's always about the bike..
"In road cycling tires 25mm is the new 22mm"
-Chris Fontecchio, PdC April 2011-
In 1989, Lemond rode with aero bars and only a rear disc wheel
while Fignon had just bull horn bars and a front and rear discs. Just an awful set up while Lemond really took advantage of the best technology of the day.
"In road cycling tires 25mm is the new 22mm"
-Chris Fontecchio, PdC April 2011-
Lemond also wore an aero helmet, Fignon wore no helmet
Someone did aerodynamic calculations using the length of that ITT and, IIRC, calculated that Fignon would have won the Tour by about 20 seconds if he had worn the same type of helmet LeMond wore that day.
MJB
Fignon also had a nasty butt-boil
That kept him rolling around on the saddle.
And Lemond kept bobbing his head so that the tail of his helmet was almost a liability.
People do forget, tho, that Fignon’s tt that day was the 2nd fastest in tour history.
by R Mc on Jul 22, 2011 7:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I thought that one of the PDC rules
was no talking about butt-boils?
Actuall Laurent Fignon finish third in the TT
So it is impossible for Fignon to have the 2nd fastest TT in TdF history. For the record, Thierry Marie finished second, 33 seconds back of Lemond and Fignon finished third, 58 seconds behind Lemond. Thierry Marie was a teammate of Laurent Fignon.
Ice
"This is my Indian summer ... I'm far more dangerous now, because I don't care at all."
I have long suspected the BMCs aren't laterally stiff enough
Some even say they aren’t sufficiently vertically compliant .
Does this matter for the ITT? Cadel's TT bike is a one-off custom job
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/bmc-pull-out-all-the-stops-for-evans-time-trial-bike
It’s not an off-the-shelf BMC bike, so Cadel’s TT frame should be fine unless their engineers are making some fundamental error that carries over to a custom-made TT bike with unique geometry.
MJB
Cyclingnews really dramatized that...Anyone can order a custom made TT01
Though I remember when I worked in a shop, a guy I know ordered one and by the time he built it up, it was up to 20k
by Vlaanderen90 on Jul 22, 2011 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I can see 30 to 40 seconds
Something like 1 second per K, but 57 is a very tall order. Cadel has to hope for wind.
Yeah, unless there's some wind that both must power through and buffets them a good deal, I think Andy holds on.
Either way, whoever rides into Paris wearing yellow will have earned it.
[Pigilito has a] lifetime stupid statement pass [on PdC] -- Yeehoo
I won't be watching because I will be driving to Luzern en route to Italy
Missing the stage for a fucking drive to Switzerland? Total scheiße!
Focus on easy first. If that's all you get, that ain't half bad - Caballo Blanco
that's the only reason I'm even interested in going, so my daughter can go to camp
Otherwise, I’d be happy here at home watching the stage.
Focus on easy first. If that's all you get, that ain't half bad - Caballo Blanco
I hope Voeckler
is not too prideful. He CAN push Frank off the podium with a good ride.
I love that it comes down to the ITT
Evans vs. Schleck. Whoever rides faster tomorrow win
(With Schleck getting 1’ handicap of course)
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
Hmm
Both riders are 67 kilos. This should mean that they have the same power. The race will really come down to drag and discipline. What is the wind like at 4:14pm in Grenoble?
same weight ≠ same power
even assuming that were true you still have other factors such as fatigue and recovery, just to name one
by karmaportrait on Jul 22, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Ahhhh, I should have known the Fabs Legs shot would come out for this one ;-)
My fruit bowl is full of sex wax--gavia
Stuey speaks the truth
May the best man win. Cause Jesus he deserves it!
via the twit
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
Hernandez ;)
Badger, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger...
by TheFigurehead on Jul 22, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
For all those complaining in the hottitude thread
About the riders being too young for you.
This is for you.
There are upper age limits, too
Open to negotiation, of course… but this doesn’t tempt me to sit down at the negotiation table, I’m afraid.
Past results
Me, I don’t think past results tell us all that much about a race like this one. But, VeloNews has done the homework for us, recent time trail results from Tour favorites
agreed. I put no stock in past results whatsoever. What has happened in the last two stages negates everything
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
As Jens! described Merckx' view
on Andy Schleck’s lead over Cadel:
“C’est beaucoup, et c’est rien”
So that pretty much sums up tomorrow.
Ç
Becoming very excited because this is the time trial to end all talk of how good Andy is
Now we can shift our energy to other worthy debates.
My fruit bowl is full of sex wax--gavia
The OOT debate should get us to at least late December
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
You have no way of predicting the polemica levels of those events
The OOT debate is here and now and unsettled.
"Oh man, it’s going to take days to kill all these people!"
I have no idea who wins tomorrow.
I know, ya’ll were thinking I knew the answer. Didn’t Cadel lose by 23 sec. one time? Would be sweet if he wins by that margin this time. Put him on suicide watch if he loses by that much again.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
LIES!
sminer, you KNOW that Tony wins tomorrow.
Of course the stage victor
Picked him ftw in the Phil predictor game
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
if the gap is 10 seconds or less...
I know Sunday is usually a procession, but if a gap is that small, then they should go for it. You can get that much in a peloton split!
How great it would be to see the TDF being decided on the final day (just need to get Cav to cooperate and let the TDF be decided)
doubt Cav would cooperate
especially since it would open him up to Rojas jumping up and snatching green off his back
it may work in his advantage
Because the GC men would take the big points. Not as much separation between the minor placings
I believe that when Rumsas tried to steal second from Beloki in 2002, it was Once who had to lead the chase on the final lap. Even though there was a green jersey battle between Zabel and McWean, their teams did not get involved in the GC fight
But just try to tell Cav not to win! ;)
My fruit bowl is full of sex wax--gavia
by Douglas Ansel on Jul 22, 2011 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions
O/T
Does the Tour always go to the Alps in the final week, or do they sometimes to they Pyrenees in the last week?
I picked Riccardo Ricco for my 2011 VDS team, and submitted said team well before the submission deadline. I fully understand the error of my ways, and plead with the VDS Gods to allow me to resubmit my team.
not always. some years
The pyrenees are last.
"In road cycling tires 25mm is the new 22mm"
-Chris Fontecchio, PdC April 2011-
by Mr Van P on Jul 22, 2011 10:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Usually alternates
generally speaking, they tend to go in a clockwise direction around France one year, counter-clockwise the next. The Alps come before the Pyrenees in clockwise years, and vice versa in counter-clockwise years (such as this one, more or less).
There are exceptions (such as 2009, which can’t really be classifies as either clockwise or counter-clockwise; it also did Pyrenees before Alps just as in 2008)
Btw
Absolutely love the last photo of Frank w/ brother Andy in the background. May have to add that one to my collection with Summie.
"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton
I said in a thread a few days ago that a complete rider should win the tour...
I was bashing Schleck for his nerves after losing time on the descent. I said he needs to be able to climb, descend, time trial, and be smart. I said he had one of three qualities (climb).
I guess tomorrow (now today), Andy has a shot to prove me wrong and prove he’s more complete then I give him credit for. I’m still not entirely convinced he can time trial, but I think it will be pretty close. I think Cadel has the edge, but 57 seconds is a large task. My take is it’s just as likely we see Andy, Cadel, Frank as the final podium as it is to see Cadel, Andy, Frank.
My initial call was Cadel takes this…but I’m convincing myself that Andy holds lead. Frank will hold 3rd and Contador has a shot to ride into 4th (if he gives a shit about the TT – why wouldn’t he…he’s a champion).
Looking at the stage profile, considering the form of Evans throughout the 3 weeks, fact that he has already ridden the same course in the Daupine
Evans is the 2011 Tour De France Champion and it will be well deserved for a man who has shown he is the consistently the strongest in the peloton this year.
Not at all as sure as you
but the fact that Cadel did the Dauphiné looks like a huge advantage at this point. Even if Andy has ridden the course in training, which I assume he has, nothing can compare to riding it in competition.
Andy hasn't ridden the course in fact. I was stunned. Part of interview at LT site.
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
Don't worry...I'll be with you soon.
"How strange it was to see men doing something beautiful. Something pointless and elegant." Tim Winton, 'Breath'
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