La battle de Rioja

by Frinking on Aug 29, 2011 12:27 PM EDT

The giro is the most fabulous Grand Tour in the year, the Tour the most happening, but the Vuelta has by far the best battle for the red jersey. We have had 10 stages. 2 mountain stage, 1 long TT and the gaps have been small. Hail for boni seconds!

The classification

Thanks to Bruce Suomi, used without asking permission.

I see 8 man who still could win the Vuelta. The top 7 + ~~Nieve~~ Rodriguez. You never know it with him.

Nibali seems the man to beat. He knows how to win a Grand Tour and doesn't crack probably in the third week. Crack he only did at the last 200m of yesterday's stage. That didn't look good.

Wiggins also in pole position to win the Vuelta. If he's as strong as yesterday? Than he wil win. But the mountains are getting steeper. Angliru, I'm talking about you!. Can he hang on there?

Froome. Well. Serious have doubt he can hang on. He came out of nowhere. So to hold that for the next 1.5 week?

Fuglsang. His weapon is the TT. Could hang on the climbs. But is not that good on the climbs. Can't see him winning.

Kessiakoff. Well. Seems he also find bavk his climbing skills. Better climber than Froome and Fuglsang. But don't think he can climb better than Wiggins and Nibali. Think he likes climbing not to long.

Monfort. The Belgian who switched place with VDB. Steady as he go Monfort. Always finishing top 20. Invicible but no way he's going to come close to the rioja. He could be steady pedalling to higher places when some of the names above him will fall away.

Mollema. I think he's the best climber here.. Serious.. His sprint can help him close to the lead. Maybe I am looking it way to orange but with 3.5 uphill finishes left... Btw: Not that I mind, but it would be nice if he attacks. He hang around yesterday which was good with all that wind. Only a real GC man has to attack, but if you win the Vuelta I will not nag, Mollema!

Rodriguez. That 3.5 uphill finishes is the reason he still not knocked out. He could gain seconds with bonification and some attacks. The more steep hills are also in his adventage. But he should start moving fast.

Did I miss anything? What do you think? Who is going to win? Some other, eeh wll thought analysis?

Prediction:

1. Mollema

2. Nibali

3 Wiggins

4 Rodriguez

5 Monfort

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Comments

I'm inclined to agree with that top 3

"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton

by sminer on Aug 29, 2011 12:58 PM EDT reply actions

Great minds... ahem.....

by Frinking on Aug 30, 2011 3:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Everything is highly surprising, so

I think Cobo and Froome will podium with only the last spot open.

by Uphill on Aug 29, 2011 1:57 PM EDT reply actions

Will be interesting to see Froome and Wiggins now

how they will play together and what not.

"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton

by sminer on Aug 29, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Yep.. And if Sky really is going to work for Froome..

I, for once, wouldn’t do that

by Frinking on Aug 30, 2011 3:28 AM EDT up reply actions

This GC is most interesting because of all the wild cards.

Jens made a good point in a different thread about how so many different and lesser known names are making themselves heard in this Tour.

There may be big names and we are excited but the fact of the matter is that we are watching a late season race where a good percentage of the riders are running out of steam for the season, some are trying to scramble into some form after striking out at the TdF, some are training for Worlds and some are just plain here because their team needs to fill out their roster with anyone left standing.

In that setting it is not particularly remarkable for a talented rider who has raced light for whatever reason during the season and then has worked up to a peak here to end up higher in the rankings than he has before. I’d be more surprised if we didn’t get some Froome/Velits performances every year.

And anyway, performance is the crappiest base for doping-suspicions ever.
by Jens on Aug 29, 2011 12:53 PM PDT

"It's a lovely thing, feeling that momentum. If you're lucky, it's also about grace." Tim Winton

by sminer on Aug 30, 2011 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions