Is it February yet?
No? All right then I guess I have done enough dissecting the 2012 FSA DS season in my Re-hash threads. I have started to run out of thing to say on that score, so what is left?
Do I sit here mindlessly staring at PdC screens filled with "Cyclocross" or whatever that drop handled mud madness is?
Do I wait for more doping news from padua, padova, and USADA?
Or, do I take a look at the future through the lens of the past?
The Latter is more likely to make me happy do that is what I will do! I do not want Ursula and Chris to be bogged down going over data from last year in order to make important pricing decisions for next years FSA DS season. I have decided that we the players can offer some valuable assistance to our beloved overlords. I will grab a few riders from last season do a blurb about them and suggest a price. Hopefully this will help avoid such obvious mistakes as Tomeke for 12!
A Christmas baby 22 years ago, born with cycling in his blood. In his first year on cylcings biggest stage Moreno made quite a splash. He scored 699 points starting with a win at the Rund um den Finanzplatz Eschborn-Frankfurt on May 1st. He waited until the Tour de Suisse to finish third behind Sagan and Cance in the prolouge. He then went on to win two stages and the overall at the Tour of Pologne. In September I was there to see him finish second to Lars Petter Nordhaug in Montreal.
Moreno definitely seems to be an up and coming all rounder he can sprint from a small group, he can climb shorter hills, and lay down power in short TT's. The Tour of Poland win is especially eye opening when you see who is in the points behind him and Michael Kwiatkowski. Henao, Uran, and Leenos. When some of this years top riders (and Leenos) are being beaten by the new hottness you know there is a potential here for him to be a star.
I don't know how much wiggle room we have here only two 1 point riders have scored in the 600's. Peter Sagan and Chris Froome, both were scored at 10 points the next year. Both returned a score over 1000 and a value between 700 and 900. Precedent would seem to indicate that he will be priced at 10, and that if that is the case he will be a good value. He could however, go for 8 or 12. At 8 he would likely be a steal and at 12 he could still be a value, but the necessity of returning 960 points may make him not so worthwhile at 12.
We all know who he is. In 2011 he was master of all he surveyed! His competitors went into races with one idea, how do I beat Phil and really no one came up with a way. Phil was the Top Dog in 2011 and only 76 points off of being top in 2010. This year Phil throws the Greatest Sandbag ever and makes himself look like utter shite the whole year so that he can stomp the World Championship.
- 2010 cost 28 produced 2145 value 605
- 2011 cost 28 produced 3986 value 2166
- 2012 cost 36 produced 1084 value -1796
What will Phil cost this year. My guess is 24, 26, or 28. It depends on how fall the mighty have fallen. After 164 players got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, how many will go double restricted on him again. At 28 Phil will be a risk, but the same risk he always is, massively talented and able to win almost anything. When he is on he is unbeatable. At 26 he gets better, at 24 he is probably a good bet, but still double restricted and playing with the big GC dog the Accountant. If he comes in at 22 or less he is a total steal.
Is there a curse of the Rainbows? Will Phil fall victim and have another shite year, or will he Cadel and have a monster?
Despite producing 1207 points less than J-Rod he is voted the best rider of the year by us (well not me, but you know what I mean). At this stratospheric level of performance price is as much dependent on popularity as on performance. We do know one thing produce over 2000 points and you will be double restricted. In 2010 over 200 meant you were 32 points see AC and Piti. In 2011 2000 meant you were between 24 and 28. in 2012 over 2000 meant you were at least 26. Where will Wiggo land?
My guess is closer to 32 than 26, as popular as he is a lot of DS's will be picking him because he is the reigning Yellow Jumper. As well the increased number of Brits on the forum could lead to a Brit bump.
I personally think that he will not ride the Giro. The reigning TdF Champ will not suddenly decide that the worlds biggest race is not worth riding simply because he thinks the Giro is a better route with a softer field. So Wiggo will ride the Tour, and may not be the favourite to win. I'm guessing he costs 32 points, and be nowhere near a value at that level. Personally I don't think he will be a value at any double restricted price.
Fabu has been fluctuating between 24 and 28 points for the last three years. Despite a classics season that was derailed by a broken collarbone and a crash that eliminated him from contention for Olympic Gold. He still managed to piece together 1305 points, but his value plummeted to -775. With Fabians popularity and the fact that a healthy Fabu will be a major protagonist in the 2013 classics season we will likely see him at 24 points. I doubt he will drop out of double restricted land so 24 is really his floor.
Th fact that he will need about 1900 points to pay of next year will make him a gamble. He has shown a consistent ability to perform at a level above that so he should still be a good bet for his fans.
In 2012 Tom Boonen was beginning to look like a guy who might have lost the plot. Drugs bust, and performances just not up to his amazingly high standard had some questioning his ability to produce. He was given a fire sale price of 12 and was picked up by 380 teams. All of these teams benefited when the Classics Rider of the Year went on a tear and mashed up almost every race with a cobble in it. He managed to post a score of 2007 and seven points. with his continuing popularity he will likely be 26 or 28 points next year. Unfortunately for his legion of fans, there is no way he hits the level of 2012 again. With Sagan, Sep, Degenkolb, and a healthy Fabu, mashing up everything in sight will be hard, hard, hard. Paying 26 or 28 for a guy who races from March to April is a massive risk.
Here is the greatest Sprinter in cycling, for now. All reigns must end. Will this be the year Cav is Dethroned? Are Sagan, Kittel, Demare, Bouhanni, Degenkolb, and Guardini ready to take it? Cavendish has produced between 1300 and 1600 points in the last 3 years. Sprinters have a super hard time making huge points in this game. At 18 points he will need to make 1440 points to pay off. This is about as low and as high as he can go. He will be highly unlikely to pay off at any higher price, and is too popular to be priced any lower.
I think that is enough for one post. If this generates some discussion, I will put out some more. If you want to see what predictions I have for some of your faves ask in the comments and I will give it a whirl.
I wish I could do multiple polls in a post, and you all to vote on the prices I am guessing at. If you want to put out your point values for these riders put them in a comment!