Ask and you shall receive. I was getting a bit worried that I would have to shut up about FSA DS for a few months because no-one was reading my stuff! Whew, now that I've rid myself of those concerns here goes! People want to know what the future holds for their Tour faves. So here goes my
Totally Accurate Guaranteed Never To Fail Point Cost Predictions
While Bert is a rider that I have never liked, he knows how to produce points, he races to win and very often does.
- in 2009 he produced 2222 points
- in 2010 he cost 32 and produced 1996 for a value of 236
- in 2011 he cost 28 and produced 2654 for a value of 864
- in 2012 he cost 30 and produced 1560 for a value of -840
- in 2012 he scored all his points between August 12 and September 29
- in 2011 he raced 2 GT's winning one in dominant fashion
- in 2011 he also won Catalunya and Murcia with a stage in each
- in 2010 he won Le Tour, Castilla y Leon, Dauphine, and Paris-Nice
- in 2009 he won Le Tour, Algarve, Pais Vasco, 3rd in Dauphine, 4th in Paris-Nice
There is no reason to see Bert below 30 this year. With points inflation since 2009, even if he only does one GT in his normal dominant fashion, with strong results in other stage races he will churn out between 2500 and 2800 points. He has shown that he can win any GT he sets his mind to and he will be a big DS favourite. Even those who may have a hard time stomaching his "past" may choose him as a rock solid lock. So he will get a popularity penalty on top of his hard earned points cost. In all likelihood he will cost almost as much as J-rod, around 34 or so.
- 32 points needs 2560 to pay off, doable for a machine like him
- 34 points needs 2720 to pay off, getting tougher to hit
- 36 points needs 2880 to pay off, unlikely even for Bert
- Unless he does 2 GT's he will not be worth 36 if there is truth to him doing the Tour-Vuelta double he will be a rock solid lock even at 36
For whatever reason, I love watching Andy ride a bike. Mostly I wish he would keep his mouth shut when not riding, but hey life gives you what you get. Andy is the Anti-Bert in very many ways. Supremely talented but seemingly very entitled, he only races on the days that he feels are worthwhile to him. Has an air about him that leads one to believe that as soon as things go against him he will fold like a wet tissue. Andy seems to only like 4 weeks each year, Ardennes week, and Le Tour. Whatever you pay for him will have to be returned in those weeks or you won't see it.
- 2009 Andys best year ever 1467 points
- 2009 wins LBL, 2nd in La Fleche, 2nd in Le Tour (Best Young Rider)
- 2010 his second best year 1364 points with a value of 44
- 2010 6th in LBL, 9th in La fleche, 2nd in Le Tour (Best Young Rider)
- 2011 cost 24 produces 1109 for a value of -451
- 2011 3rd in LBL, 11th in Amstel, and Second in Le Tour
- 2012 cost 16 produces 0 for a value of -1280 2nd worst pick of the year after Phil Gil
So we have a rider who may produce 3-400 points in the Ardennes and 4-500 in the Tour. Without a Best Young Rider Jersey waiting at the Tour his best effort likely nets him between 700 and 900 points with a big outlier at 1000. Andy at 8 needs 640 points to pay off, at that salary he may be worth a punt. Andy at 10 needs 800 to pay off, he could be value with a good year and produce his best return with a big outlier year. Andy at 12 need 960 just to pay off, without the bonus 1-200 points of the White Jersey, and barring wins at an Ardennes Classic he won't hit this unless he wins the Tour.
One of the most talented bike riders, a solid climber with a moderate sprint. In any group where the pure sprinters are shelled out he is likely the best sprinter. A solid TT'er Valverde's tool chest is quite full. Despite this Valv Piti has been caught with his hand in the cookie jar trying to fill his tool chest with illegal tools. Valverde has grown in maturity in the last few years gaining patience which has seen him become a GT winner. Always an aggressive rider who has shown a lot of panache, he wins classics, short stage races and a GT. Producing points is not a problem for Piti.
- in 2009 he produced 2408 points and was the top dog
- in 2010 he produced 1539 points from March 11 to May 2 (retroactively stripped)
- his 2010 value would have been 229 if he kept his points and still didn't race the rest of the year
- in 2011 he took a "vacation"
- in 2012 he cost 22 and produced 1931 points with a value of 171
- he was one of only 6 restricted riders to pay off and had the 4th highest value of restriced and double restricted riders
Piti was not at his best this year, the "vacation" in his legs took that little bit out of him. Yet, he still manages to produce a GT second and a stage win at the Tour. A guy who produces almost 2000 points on an off year will not be under 24 points. He will be double restricted and a good pick for those who feel that dumping 36 on Conta or J-Rod is too many eggs in one basket.
- at 24 he needs 1920 to pay off probably a safe bet for him
- at 26 he needs 2080 to pay off a number he can hit although his value starts to drop here
- at 28 he needs 2240 to pay off a tough number for him to produce value at, but still doable
- at 30 he needs 2300 to pay off and now we start to get into tough territory, but still history shows that he has what it takes to do this
So there are my opinions about the riders you asked about. Throw a few more names at me and I will work my magic on them.