FanPost

FSA DS Predicting Points Costs Again


It seems that the names keep coming in, so the posts keep coming out. You do know that I am like the raccoon eating your garbage, keep feeding me and I'll never go away!

Thor Hushovd

A favourite of mine. I love the way he rides and his kind of underdog sprint thing that he has. I have never had Thor on my team, due to his massive overpricing. He is priced based on a year when he was World Champ and Green Jersey. He got popular and his fans have been over paying for him ever since.

  • in 2009 he produced 1560 points
  • in 2010 he cost 24 points and produced 1442 points for a value of 122
  • in 2011 he cost 22 points and produced 826 points for a value of -604
  • in 2012 he cost 14 points and produced 60 points for a value of -1060

Thor has been turning into a world class boat anchor. Still 88 people chose him despite his cost and unlikelihood of paying off. His popularity may be on the wane a bit, he has turned into a classics guy with no classics wins who doesn't race Flanders. He seems to have one goal each year, Paris Roubaix. While it is an admirable goal, it leaves much to be desired from and FSA DS point of view.

  • at 8 he needs 640 points to pay off, possible but unlikely
  • at 6 he needs 480 to pay off, a better bet probably worth a punt
  • at 10 he needs 800 points, unless all the other sprinters fall off the planet this is unlikely

Thomas Voeckler

Oh, I love Tommy V! He has such a fantastic suffer face and races so aggressively. He seems to have figured out how to make races work in his favour. He is reading them better and getting in better breaks, putting in more important efforts. He does still need things to work out in his favour though. Tommy is a tough bet.

  • in 2009 he produced 215
  • in 2010 he cost 6 and produced 555 with a value of 255
  • in 2011 he cost 8 and produced 1280 with a value of 760
  • in 2012 he cost 14 and produced 1455 with a value of 335

Tommy is quite popular and will likely go up in price again. I don't think he goes restricted though. So he most likely landing spot is 16. At 16 Tommy needs 1280 just to pay off, this will be tough for him to do again, he does seem to be able to cobble results together from all sorts of different places each year so who knows. At 18 he would need a career year just to pay off not likely.

Tyler Farrar

I like Tyler really I do, I love to root for an underdog. Tyler tries so hard and so very close to being almost great that it hurts. I hope he gets better and gets luckier, but here's thinking the door is closed. Without a shift in focus I don't see him doing good at all. If he puts his mind to it maybe he can do something in the classics. Sprint wise there are way to many kids coming along who are way faster, its not just Cav and the old guard he has to beat any more. The next generation of Sprint Kids is here and they are all beating on Cavs door, some with more results than Farrar has ever shown.

  • in 2009 he produced 1090
  • in 2010 he cost 20 and produced 2000 for a value of 900
  • in 2011 he cost 26 and produced 1024 for a value of -666
  • in 2012 he cost 14 and produced 383 points for a value of -737

These are bad trends for a rider, I mean hey FSA DS wise he is better than Thor but not by much. He is also American and gets a price bump for that. Probably 10-12 points and unlikely to get the 800 to 960 he needs to pay off at that level. If he is under 10 he may be worth a punt as he has an outside shot at 6-700 points, and could always surprise, if he shifts focus.

Robert Gesink

Wow do I ever love Bobo, what is it with me and guys who look like they are suffering lots on their bike! This skinny little twig goes uphill like a bird and races all year. He is coming off an injury and so despite last years performance likely will not fall off a cliff price wise.

  • in 2009 he produced 1235
  • in 2010 he cost 20 and produced 1273 for a value of 173
  • in 2011 he cost 18 and produced 839 for a value of -331
  • in 2012 he cost 16 and produced 692 for a value of -588

He likely runs 12 or 14 and if he has a good year he could definitely produce the 960-1120 points required to produce value at 10 he is a steal and at 16 he will produce less value, maybe even fail to produce.

Juan Jose Cobo

Not a fave of mine and definitely a gamble guy.

  • in 2009 he produced 430
  • in 2010 he cost 8 and produced 0 for a value of -440
  • in 2011 he cost 2 and produced 1145 for a value of 1015
  • in 2012 he cost 12 and produced 0 for a value of -960

This guy is a total crap shoot hang a tag of 6 or 8 on him so that he won't 2011 you again and be done with it. He can do really well, but when he doesn't he is total and utter crap. If you like entering the doughnut lottery here is a good bet. He will not be 2 again though that's for sure.

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