I've already Talked about young Moreno Moser, but there were some other Young Guns out there who had impressive years last year. How will those impressive years affect their FSA DS Prices, I've got a few thoughts on that.
Wow! The closest match to this kid is none other than Peter Sagan! Look at their first three years FSA DS.
- Year 1 Sagan 1 point 697/Degenkolb 2 points 477 points
- Year 2 Sagan 10 points 1382/Degenkolb 10 points 1930
- Year 3 Sagan 20 points 2556/ Dekenkolb ? points ?
I am guessing that John will end up around that 20 point mark. No way he is unrestricted after the year he had. The only question is will he end up at 20 or will he float higher. Usually a 2000 or so point season will land you in double restricted land. Tombo who actually had more points but was a poorer value than Degenkolb I expect to land in the 26-28 point range. John however is a Young Gun and while he has had two years with steady improvement, there is no real track record of greatness to go on. Last year all Tom did was prove that he still had "it", he hadn't gotten old and the game had not passed him by. The question for John is will he continue to grow or will he hit a wall. Even throwing him into 20 point land will still be tough for the young kid to keep up with.
- 20 points requires 1600 points to pay off so simply repeating last year will be enough to produce some value
- 22 points requires 1760 last year is till good enough but just barely
- 24 points Double restricted and needing 1920 to pay last year gets him 10 points and he is competing against all the bigs
- 18 points and only 1440 to pay, probably too low for a guy of his talent
In all likelihood he is 20 or 22 points. He does not have the track record yet to go up against the bigs in double restricted land. I don't see many picking him over Cance, Tombo, Valverde, Wiggins, Contador, J-rod, Gilbert, and anyone else up there. 22 though is an intriguing spot for him to land at. Even if he does slightly worse than last year he will still pay off, any improvement will produce value. Here is where some might say I should sand bag, but John Degenkolb could be a real value pick if he doesn't end up double restricted!
Rising star and a French fast man. Is he fast enough to play with the big boys? Will he continue to develop? There is a good bit of history in the last three years to show that he will likely land in the 10 point range. With his almost 800 points he could go as high as 12, but that is usually reserved for guys with a bit more track record. At 10 points he will need produce another season like his last one. The question really is does he have the versatility to make points like Sagan and Degenkolb, or will he be more of a pure sprinter. Pure sprinters have a harder time racking up points. For non-GC guys one day race results produce more points, meaning that winning a classic is worth 3-5 stages of a GT. So will Demare have a decent Classics season or will he stick around the 800 point mark. Either way 8 will be a steal and 12 might be too big of a hurdle for him to overcome.
Wins a lot, just not at the FSA DS level. 10 wins in 2012 11 wins in 2011. He beat Cav straight up in a drag race, on a mostly downhill Giro Stage. Not many riders have shown Cav their rear wheel when he was still on his bike and trying to win. It was an awesome moment in 2012 for me to see that Drag Race go to someone other than Cav. In 2013 he moves to Astana and has his first shot at the World Tour. What will happen to him? His past results suggest maybe he stays at 2 points but the move to Astana may bump him to 4 points. Here is a guy who has won 10-11 races a year for the last couple of years as a pro but only generated 130 FSA DS points total. At 4 points he needs 320 points to pay off, 4 times his bigger than his best year. At two again he may be worth a punt, but at 4 he starts to become a risk, unless Astana can figure out how to get him over hills and to the finish of races.
I have got to start listening to the voices in the wilderness call out names of up and comers. Sergio Henao 157 DS's saw a guy who was worth a punt at two points. He gave back a whopping 1177 point for a value of 1017. His biggest problem is that he is at least 4th on the Sky depth chart. He will likely be 12 or 14 points next year. He will need between 960 and 1120 points just to pay off at those prices. As a guy who does donkey work for Uran, Froome, and Wiggo seeing him rack up massive points is a bit of a stretch. At 8 he might be worthwhile, but there is no way he lands that low. Sky has got a massive line up of great climbers. I have often overestimated the toll that depth has on points production for riders, however I will stick with my guns on this one and say Henao will not be a value pick in 2013.
Young September has had two great race days in two years. 4th in E3 in 2011, won Het Nieuwsblad in 2012. He produced 510 points but only 190 points of value. He is an up and coming classics stud who was the only guy to show Tombo his rear wheel in a cobbled race in 2012. He should continue to grow, the question is where does he end up?
- 8 points needs 640 to pay, with growth possible
- 10 points needs 800 to pay, for a kid who only seems to go March to April maybe a stretch
- 12 points needs 960 points, if he can have a great spring and find some results in the rest of the year maybe
Well that's another thousand words on FSA DS hope you enjoyed.