FanPost

2010 All Over Again...2013 Restricted Riders Predicted

So FSA DS is going Retro? Ursula has hinted that 2013 will be priced like 2010 and I figured out what that might mean in a numbers way earlier this week. Some of us do not like maths and so I will translate maths into names and simple numbers. I ran the 2012 final numbers against a projected efficiency of 65, which is a nice round number not quite 2 basis points more than the 2010 average for restricted riders. Now some of these numbers come out into crazy land, like J-rod showing 60 points. In 2012 Phil Gil should have been 61 based on these same numbers. So I have included a reality check column. The reality check is just my opinion of where they may land relative to the estimate.

Edited points based on Usulas' input:

Rider

Points 2012

Projected Cost 2013

Reality Check

Joaquim Rodriquez

3837

60

36

Bradley Wiggins

2630

42

32/30

Peter Sagan

2556

40

32/30

Tom Boonen

2007

32

26

Alejandro Valverde

1931

30

24/32

John Degenkolb

1930

30

26

Chris Froome

1612

26

24/26

Alberto Contador

1560

24

32

Edvald Boasson Hagen

1535

24

22/26

Vincenzo Nibali

1530

24

22/26

Tony Martin

1515

24

20/24

Tomas Voeckler

1455

24

18

Mark Cavendish

1370

22

18/22

Tejay van Garderen

1365

22

18/22

Fabian Cancellara

1305

22

22/26

Samuel Sanchez

1291

20

18/20

Rigoberto Uran

1332

22

20/18

Rui Costa

1332

22

20/18

Andre Greipel

1235

20

16

Taylor Phinney

1243

20

18/26

Ryder Hesjedal

1231

20

18/20

Niki Terpstra

1260

20

18/20

Greg Van Avermaet

1200

20

18

Alessandro Ballan

1152

18

18

Oscar Friere

1150

18

16

Sergio Henao

1177

20

20/18

Phillipe Gilbert

1084

18

26/32

I must say that as I look at this list more it seems as though finding mid-priced value riders will be much more difficult than in the last two years. If I am even close to the mark we will likely see a drop of as much as 3-4000 in the overall point total of the winner.

The choice between Wiggins, Sagan, Contador, and J-Rod at the top of the table will be a very interesting one. It will also be one that I do not feel will define the game as much as Phil or J-Rod has the last two years. Any one of those guys could be worth the price and pay off. Hopefully this will lead to much more diverse team construction, where missing out on one guy won't kill your season.

All in all if I don't miss the mark by much I think that this will be a very interesting FSA DS Season! looking forward to 2013!

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