So FSA DS is going Retro? Ursula has hinted that 2013 will be priced like 2010 and I figured out what that might mean in a numbers way earlier this week. Some of us do not like maths and so I will translate maths into names and simple numbers. I ran the 2012 final numbers against a projected efficiency of 65, which is a nice round number not quite 2 basis points more than the 2010 average for restricted riders. Now some of these numbers come out into crazy land, like J-rod showing 60 points. In 2012 Phil Gil should have been 61 based on these same numbers. So I have included a reality check column. The reality check is just my opinion of where they may land relative to the estimate.
Edited points based on Usulas' input:
Rider |
Points 2012 |
Projected Cost 2013 |
Reality Check |
Joaquim Rodriquez |
3837 |
60 |
36 |
Bradley Wiggins |
2630 |
42 |
32/30 |
Peter Sagan |
2556 |
40 |
32/30 |
Tom Boonen |
2007 |
32 |
26 |
Alejandro Valverde |
1931 |
30 |
24/32 |
John Degenkolb |
1930 |
30 |
26 |
Chris Froome |
1612 |
26 |
24/26 |
Alberto Contador |
1560 |
24 |
32 |
Edvald Boasson Hagen |
1535 |
24 |
22/26 |
Vincenzo Nibali |
1530 |
24 |
22/26 |
Tony Martin |
1515 |
24 |
20/24 |
Tomas Voeckler |
1455 |
24 |
18 |
Mark Cavendish |
1370 |
22 |
18/22 |
Tejay van Garderen |
1365 |
22 |
18/22 |
Fabian Cancellara |
1305 |
22 |
22/26 |
Samuel Sanchez |
1291 |
20 |
18/20 |
Rigoberto Uran |
1332 |
22 |
20/18 |
Rui Costa |
1332 |
22 |
20/18 |
Andre Greipel |
1235 |
20 |
16 |
Taylor Phinney |
1243 |
20 |
18/26 |
Ryder Hesjedal |
1231 |
20 |
18/20 |
Niki Terpstra |
1260 |
20 |
18/20 |
Greg Van Avermaet |
1200 |
20 |
18 |
Alessandro Ballan |
1152 |
18 |
18 |
Oscar Friere |
1150 |
18 |
16 |
Sergio Henao |
1177 |
20 |
20/18 |
Phillipe Gilbert |
1084 |
18 |
26/32 |
I must say that as I look at this list more it seems as though finding mid-priced value riders will be much more difficult than in the last two years. If I am even close to the mark we will likely see a drop of as much as 3-4000 in the overall point total of the winner.
The choice between Wiggins, Sagan, Contador, and J-Rod at the top of the table will be a very interesting one. It will also be one that I do not feel will define the game as much as Phil or J-Rod has the last two years. Any one of those guys could be worth the price and pay off. Hopefully this will lead to much more diverse team construction, where missing out on one guy won't kill your season.
All in all if I don't miss the mark by much I think that this will be a very interesting FSA DS Season! looking forward to 2013!