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FSA DS Risks and Rewards

There has been a little bit of discussion in one of my other FSA DS rehash threads about the value of restricted riders versus others. So I have gone and learned a little bit about spreadsheet fiddling so that I can find some answers for myself. Wow who knew "COUNTIF" could be so helpful, or even that it existed? Certainly not me until yesterday! Any how I have gone on a search to find out how the various categories of riders performed against a couple of benchmarks.

What are the Categories. Well as I started looking at groups of riders they seemed to fall into four groups.

  1. Double Restricted riders: Riders costing 24 or more points-you can only have one of these
  2. Restricted Riders: Riders costing 18 or more points-you can only have three of these
  3. Constrained Riders: Riders costing between 8-16 points there are no restrictions, but your team cannot be made of these riders exclusively due to cost
  4. Unconstrained Riders: Riders costing between 1-6 points you can have as many of these as you want, you can even build a whole team of them if you want, it just can't all be Sep Vanmarcke!

What are my benchmarks? Well I have noticed that in a lot of the top teams this year that having a bunch of guys who earned over 400 points is almost necessary. Whether you paid 1,6,8, or 12 points didn't seem to matter. So having a bunch of 400 point producers is important, but costlier riders should perform better and some small price guys go big, so what is big? 1000 points is big. I have broken the riders into their groups and figured out what percentage of rider hit each benchmark. Data is from all three years Teds supersite has been up.

And here is the Chart:

Price

Percent

>400

Percent

>1000

Double Restricted

86.9

20

Restricted + Double Restricted

63.5

28

Restricted Alone

50

13

Constrained

50.6

46

19.28

33

Unconstrained

3.86

119

0.32

10

6

31.25

35

4.46

5

4

13.79

32

0.43

1

2

5.83

35

0.5

3

1

0.79

17

0.05

1

I only did over 1000 for the restricted riders since at those prices 400 just doesn't cut it.

Big Surprises

  • only 1 one pointer and one 4 pointer hit 1000 in the last three years
  • 2 pointers have definitely punched over their weight, looks like they are more than twice as good as 1 pointers overall
  • 87 percent of all double restricted riders hit 1000, even in bad years these guys truly are the best of the best!
  • The 45 percent for 18-20 pointers shows why the price drop is there. You go from almost 9/10 to a coin flip when you drop from Double Restricted to Restricted.

Some of you may be asking about the utter failures in each category, well I also did a doughnuts and percent doughnuts for each group. I broke down the Unconstrained group into sub-groups based on points since the group is so large.

Here is the Chart:

Price

Percent

Doughnuts

1

64.47

1379

2

33

199

4

18.1

42

6

13.39

15

Unconstrained

53

1634

Constrained

9.04

15

Restricted

4.08

2

Looking at the results it is quite apparent that the price setters have done quite a good job.

  • 1 pointers are a total crap shoot almost 1400 doughnuts!
  • 2 pointers still a way better investment than 1 pointers
  • here is where the 4 pointer show some upside, half as likely as 2 pointers to be doughnuts, and less than %25 of the real number of doughnuts
  • 6 pointers are not shining 3x as many doughnuts as >1000 pointers; only 2x as many >400 pointers as doughnuts; and the same number of doughnuts as the constrained rider with only a slightly better percentage
  • Constrained riders 3x as many >400 pointers than doughnuts; 2x as many >1000 pointers as doughnuts; very much a go big or go home category but the payoff is huge in this category
  • the only two restricted riders to doughnut are Jen Grey and Valv Piti, in their drug bust/suspension years

For me the big surprise is how much better 2 pointers are than 1 pointers. The fact that they have higher perceived potential, or greater retained value, means that this is an area to find overperformers

  • Henao, Cobo, Anton each year there has been a single standout from this group along with many other solid performers
  • Horner and Paolini almost gave the four pointers some extra 1000 point love but still this is a real crap shoot category, generally all or nothing
  • while restricted riders seem to get all the dumping on for their under performing, 4-6 pointers are where the toughest decisions need to be made. These riders are risky and not cheap relative to 1-2 pointers.

Anyway those are my thoughts for the last couple of days.

Is It February yet?

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