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GIRO STAGE PREDICTOR GAME: Stage 11

It's Giro time, and the Stage Predictor Game is back. Everyone is welcome to play. Feel free to join with us at any time and compete for stage wins, but most important will be the hotly-contested overall competition. Since last year's winner got a pink Giro cap signed by Sergey Lagutin, we'll continue the tradition and call the overall competition the cappello rosa. Courtesy of the ever-generous holmovka, there are again some fabulous prizes and trophies:

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Results Stage 10

The top 8 picks in our game today (all GC riders) were between 34% and 23% in popularity. This proved an accurate prediction of how closely matched the elite riders are in the mountains, and bodes well for a Giro with 6 mountain-top or uphill finishes still to come.

As the least favored of the elite Colombians, Uran's win yielded big points for 6 players. Of these, amybc edged out pablo777 by less than half a point to take the solo stage win.

Stage 10 top 10:
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Seahorse did enough to maintain her lead in the cappello rosa, with ther00kie16 holding the gap steady in 2nd. The big movers in the overall were blitzer maloney and rmeloa, moving up into 3rd and 4th thanks to Uran.

Overall top 30:
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Spreadsheet download with complete results

pdf of complete results for last 3 stages

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Stage 11

Wednesday 15th May

Tarvisio - Vajont 182km

Published start time 12:35 CET

Roadbook
From the stage start at Cave del Predil as far as Tolmezzo, the race route descends slightly but consistently, then starts a shallow climb as far as Ovaro. Long but not especially demanding climb to Sella Ciampigotto (gradients mostly around 4%). Fast and sometimes technical descent as far as the Piave valley. Intermediate sprints at Lozzo di Cadore and Pieve di Cadore. A descent leads to Longarone where the final climb begins up to Passo Sant’Osvaldo, leading to the stage finish.

Stage profile

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Sella Ciampigotto
Cat 2a - 29.5km @4.3% - GPM @62km from finish

Vajont
Cat 2a - 7.6km @4.9%

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Final kilometers

Roadbook
Final 7 km are uphill. First part has hairpins and gradients of about 6% on a wide road. After 3 km, three well-lit tunnels, partially open at the side. Final kilometre climbs slightly, with the section from 500 to 100 m descending slightly. Finish line at the end of a 200 m straight. Road width 6 m, surfaced with asphalt.

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Useful links

Gazetta Giro home page

Download "Garibaldi" official roadbook (huge file 92Mb)

Steephill Giro page

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Rules

Pick 4 riders for the stage, the order of your picks doesn't matter. All your riders can score.

Riders score points down to 10th place. Less popular riders score more points than heavily-picked favorites. See below for scoring details.

The strict entry deadline is the official start time of the stage. There's no disadvantage to getting your entry in early, since you may always change your picks before the deadline. Feel free to revise your picks when you see which riders are more or less popular with other players. Post changes in a reply to your original post.

Scoring

The top 10 finishers score points according to this basic scale from race winner down to 10th place:

100-60-50-40-30-25-20-15-10-5

However, if riders of all abilities scored the same, we'd all just be picking the big favorites all the time. So we multiply the scale above by a rider's payoff percentage based on the number of players that pick him. More picks, lower payoff. The highest possible payoff for a really unlikely outsider picked by less than 5% of players is 100% of the scale above; the lowest possible payoff for a hot favorite picked by more than 80% of players is 15% of the the scale above.

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For example, here's the result from Stage 1:

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If you're not familiar with this kind of scoring scheme from previous games, just play along for a few stages and it will soon make sense. All you need to do is pick 4 riders that you like for the stage - maybe go for two obvious favorites and try two outsiders that you fancy for a decent top-10 result.

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