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GIRO STAGE PREDICTOR GAME: Stage 12

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It's Giro time, and the Stage Predictor Game is back. Everyone is welcome to play. Feel free to join with us at any time and compete for stage wins, but most important will be the hotly-contested overall competition. Since last year's winner got a pink Giro cap signed by Sergey Lagutin, we'll continue the tradition and call the overall competition the cappello rosa. Courtesy of the ever-generous holmovka, there are again some fabulous prizes and trophies:

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Results Stage 11

broerie nails the breakaway with three picks, including the one that mattered. A great result for Comrade Honey Badger and Garmin, and a record high score for broerie. Also the first unique pick winner at the Giro. What more can I say?

Stage 11 top 10:

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With none of her closest challengers hitting big scores today, Seahorse holds the cappello rosa for another day.

Overall top 30:

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Spreadsheet download with complete results

pdf of complete results for last 3 stages

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Stage 12

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Thursday 16th May

Longarone - Treviso 134km

Published start time 14:05 CET

Roadbook
Very short stage, mostly descending. Short climbs interrupt the descent: Pieve di Alpago (intermediate sprint), the Muro di Ca’ del Poggio (max 16% - GPM) and Santa Maria della Vittoria on the Montello (max 14% - GPM). Roads generally straight and flat. Final urban circuit 7.5 km long, ridden once.

Stage profile

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Muro di Ca'del Poggio
Cat 4a - 1.2km @12.2% - GPM @77km from finish

Montello - Santa Maria della Vittoria
Cat 4a - 3.4km @6.3% - GPM @41km from finish

Final kilometers

Roadbook
Final circuit entirely within urban area, with two technical sections, each with a left-hand bend (6800 m from the stage finish and 1700 m from the finish line). Wide, well-surfaced roads. Momentary narrowing at 400 m. Finish straight 1100 m long. Road width 7.5 m, surfaced with asphalt.

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Useful links

Gazetta Giro home page

Download "Garibaldi" official roadbook (huge file 92Mb)

Steephill Giro page

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Rules

Pick 4 riders for the stage, the order of your picks doesn't matter. All your riders can score.

Riders score points down to 10th place. Less popular riders score more points than heavily-picked favorites. See below for scoring details.

The strict entry deadline is the official start time of the stage. There's no disadvantage to getting your entry in early, since you may always change your picks before the deadline. Feel free to revise your picks when you see which riders are more or less popular with other players. Post changes in a reply to your original post.

Scoring

The top 10 finishers score points according to this basic scale from race winner down to 10th place:

100-60-50-40-30-25-20-15-10-5

However, if riders of all abilities scored the same, we'd all just be picking the big favorites all the time. So we multiply the scale above by a rider's payoff percentage based on the number of players that pick him. More picks, lower payoff. The highest possible payoff for a really unlikely outsider picked by less than 5% of players is 100% of the scale above; the lowest possible payoff for a hot favorite picked by more than 80% of players is 15% of the the scale above.

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For example, here's the result from Stage 1:

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If you're not familiar with this kind of scoring scheme from previous games, just play along for a few stages and it will soon make sense. All you need to do is pick 4 riders that you like for the stage - maybe go for two obvious favorites and try two outsiders that you fancy for a decent top-10 result.

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