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GIRO STAGE PREDICTOR GAME: Stage 14

It's Giro time, and the Stage Predictor Game is back. Everyone is welcome to play. Feel free to join with us at any time and compete for stage wins, but most important will be the hotly-contested overall competition. Since last year's winner got a pink Giro cap signed by Sergey Lagutin, we'll continue the tradition and call the overall competition the cappello rosa. Courtesy of the ever-generous holmovka, there are again some fabulous prizes and trophies:

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Results Stage 13

The sprinters prevail, and VirtKitty nails it with almost 100 points, edging out rouleur.

Stage 13 top 10:

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Seahorse scores well to hold a commanding lead in the cappello rosa. Benzene makes a strong move into second.

Overall top 30:

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Spreadsheet download with complete results

pdf of complete results for last 3 stages

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Stage 14

Saturday 18th May

Cervere - Bardonecchia 168km

Published start time 12:45 CET

Roadbook
Very hard uphill finish after a short stage (168 km). Flat approach as far as Pinerolo (intermediate sprint). Long and ‘pedalable’ climb to the GPM at Sestrière. Fast descent as far as Oulx before a false flat leading to Bardonecchia (intermediate sprint) and then the final climb as far as the Jafferau.

Stage profile

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Sestrière
Cat 2a - 16.3km @3.8% - GPM @43km from finish

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Jafferau
Cat 1a - 7.3km @9.0%

Roadbook
Final 7 km climbing steeply at gradients of 9-10%, reaching 14% in the first part. Narrow road at Maillaures, on the steepest section at about 6 km from the finish line. Finishing straight 50 m long. Road width 6 m, dirt.

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Useful links

Gazetta Giro home page

Download "Garibaldi" official roadbook (huge file 92Mb)

Steephill Giro page

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Rules

Pick 4 riders for the stage, the order of your picks doesn't matter. All your riders can score.

Riders score points down to 10th place. Less popular riders score more points than heavily-picked favorites. See below for scoring details.

The strict entry deadline is the official start time of the stage. There's no disadvantage to getting your entry in early, since you may always change your picks before the deadline. Feel free to revise your picks when you see which riders are more or less popular with other players. Post changes in a reply to your original post.

Scoring

The top 10 finishers score points according to this basic scale from race winner down to 10th place:

100-60-50-40-30-25-20-15-10-5

However, if riders of all abilities scored the same, we'd all just be picking the big favorites all the time. So we multiply the scale above by a rider's payoff percentage based on the number of players that pick him. More picks, lower payoff. The highest possible payoff for a really unlikely outsider picked by less than 5% of players is 100% of the scale above; the lowest possible payoff for a hot favorite picked by more than 80% of players is 15% of the the scale above.

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For example, here's the result from Stage 1:

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If you're not familiar with this kind of scoring scheme from previous games, just play along for a few stages and it will soon make sense. All you need to do is pick 4 riders that you like for the stage - maybe go for two obvious favorites and try two outsiders that you fancy for a decent top-10 result.

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